playing 2014 MLB season?

[clwalcott]

Originally Posted by Bobble

White Sox? Indians? Cleveland is a smaller market, right?

I'm bullish on the White Sox for this year, let alone the future...as for Cleveland - LINDOR!

[Bobble]

I did the math. I took the Prospect Rankings from Baseball Prospectus here and the PECOTA record projections from Baseball Prospectus here. Ranked them both from best to worst and combined those rankings. I first took just the sum of the two rankings but then I decided that that's not a great metric. I'd rather have the 15th ranked prospect/16th ranked record team than the 1st/30th which would both sum to 31.

And the winner, er, LOSER is ... PHILLY.

Team		Prospects	Record	Sum	Product
*Philadelphia Phillies	25	25	50	625
*Miami Marlins		19	29	48	551
*Milwaukee Brewers	29	17	46	493
*Chicago White Sox	21	23	44	483
*Cleveland Indians	20	21	41	420
*Atlanta Braves		24	14	38	336
*Arizona Diamondbacks	15	18	33	270
*Detroit Tigers		27	9	36	243
*Colorado Rockies	10	23	33	230
*New York Yankees	23	10	33	230
*Cincinnati Reds	16	14	30	224
*Oakland Athletics	28	8	36	224
*Baltimore Orioles	12	18	30	216
*Seattle Mariners	17	12	29	204
*New York Mets		8	25	33	200
*Toronto Blue Jays	13	14	27	182
*San Francisco Giants	22	7	29	154
*Houston Astros		5	30	35	150
*Kansas City Royals	7	21	28	147
*San Diego Padres	11	10	21	110
*Texas Rangers		9	12	21	108
*Los Angeles Angels	30	3	33	90
*Washington Nationals	18	4	22	72
*Pittsburgh Pirates	3	18	21	54
*Chicago Cubs		2	27	29	54
*Tampa Bay Rays		26	2	28	52
*Minnesota Twins	1	28	29	28
 St Louis Cardinals	6	4	10	24
*Boston Red Sox		4	4	8	16
*Los Angeles Dodgers	14	1	15	14

Thoughts?

[adaman77]

Originally Posted by Bobble

I did the math. I took the Prospect Rankings from Baseball Prospectus here and the PECOTA record projections from Baseball Prospectus here. Ranked them both from best to worst and combined those rankings. I first took just the sum of the two rankings but then I decided that that's not a great metric. I'd rather have the 15th ranked prospect/16th ranked record team than the 1st/30th which would both sum to 31.

And the winner, er, LOSER is ... PHILLY.

Team		Prospects	Record	Sum	Product
*Philadelphia Phillies	25	25	50	625
*Miami Marlins		19	29	48	551
*Milwaukee Brewers	29	17	46	493
*Chicago White Sox	21	23	44	483
*Cleveland Indians	20	21	41	420
*Atlanta Braves		24	14	38	336
*Arizona Diamondbacks	15	18	33	270
*Detroit Tigers		27	9	36	243
*Colorado Rockies	10	23	33	230
*New York Yankees	23	10	33	230
*Cincinnati Reds	16	14	30	224
*Oakland Athletics	28	8	36	224
*Baltimore Orioles	12	18	30	216
*Seattle Mariners	17	12	29	204
*New York Mets		8	25	33	200
*Toronto Blue Jays	13	14	27	182
*San Francisco Giants	22	7	29	154
*Houston Astros		5	30	35	150
*Kansas City Royals	7	21	28	147
*San Diego Padres	11	10	21	110
*Texas Rangers		9	12	21	108
*Los Angeles Angels	30	3	33	90
*Washington Nationals	18	4	22	72
*Pittsburgh Pirates	3	18	21	54
*Chicago Cubs		2	27	29	54
*Tampa Bay Rays		26	2	28	52
*Minnesota Twins	1	28	29	28
 St Louis Cardinals	6	4	10	24
*Boston Red Sox		4	4	8	16
*Los Angeles Dodgers	14	1	15	14

Thoughts?

No idea why I didn't think of Philly. Yeah, that actually makes a ton of sense. Their only hope for this year is that the NL East is kinda weak. After this year, I think they finally might tear it down. As a Nats fan, here's hoping Ruben Amaro manages the rebuilding effort just as incompetently as he managed the good years.

This is a pretty good measure, in broad strokes. You can obviously take issue with a lot of the rankings, but it does a very good job of getting the general trend.

[BostonRS14]

Originally Posted by tward13

So who's going to create an add-on that interfaces with all three games. You go through the year day by day and need to go into each game to play scheduled games or interact with players, etc as needed.

That would be awesome.

My goal is to create an online league utilizing all three games, where you own the teams for an entire city, not just one league.

[Donevyn]

So from reading thru this thread, I was always under the wrong impression that most folks played fictional leagues long term. But it seems quite the contrary, that folks actually start with their favorite MLB team and take them far into the future. Correct?

[clwalcott]

I definitely think Phillies are in a class of their own - that formula doesn't even know the atrocious contract situation

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by Donevyn

So from reading thru this thread, I was always under the wrong impression that most folks played fictional leagues long term. But it seems quite the contrary, that folks actually start with their favorite MLB team and take them far into the future. Correct?

Small sample size. The community runs something like 1/3rd current, 1/3rd historical and 1/3rd fantasy.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by clwalcott

I definitely think Phillies are in a class of their own - that formula doesn't even know the atrocious contract situation

I wanted to include salaries and market size. I got the salaries from here and the market size data from here but I didn't want to give them the same weight in the formula as the prospect and record rankings so I took the square root of their rank (so they each effectively go from 1 to about 5.5 instead of 1 to 30). Salaries are ranked where the lowest salary is a #1 rank.

Brewers giving Philly a run for their money...

Team		Prospects	Record	Salary	Market	Sum	~Product
Philadelphia Phillies	25	25	28	11	89	10969
Milwaukee Brewers	29	17	15	30	91	10458
Atlanta Braves		24	14	17	17	72	5712
Arizona Diamondbacks	15	18	20	20	73	5400
Cincinnati Reds		16	14	19	28	77	5167
Detroit Tigers		27	9	26	13	75	4468
Cleveland Indians	20	21	5	22	68	4405
Colorado Rockies	10	23	14	25	72	4303
Chicago White Sox	21	23	11	5	60	3582
Miami Marlins		19	29	2	18	68	3306
Toronto Blue Jays	13	14	21	15	63	3230
Seattle Mariners	17	12	13	19	61	3206
Kansas City Royals	7	21	12	29	69	2742
Baltimore Orioles	12	18	16	7	53	2286
San Francisco Giants	22	7	24	9	62	2263
Texas Rangers		9	12	23	14	58	1938
San Diego Padres	11	10	10	23	54	1668
Oakland Athletics	28	8	6	9	51	1646
New York Yankees	23	10	29	1	63	1239
Washington Nationals	18	4	22	7	51	893
Los Angeles Angels	30	3	25	3	61	779
Houston Astros		5	30	1	16	52	600
New York Mets		8	25	9	1	43	600
Pittsburgh Pirates	3	18	4	27	52	561
St Louis Cardinals	6	4	18	24	52	499
Tampa Bay Rays		26	2	3	26	57	459
Chicago Cubs		2	27	8	5	42	342
Minnesota Twins		1	28	7	21	57	339
Boston Red Sox		4	4	27	12	47	288
Los Angeles Dodgers	14	1	30	3	48	133

A little surprised to see the Tigers and Reds up in the top few.

[adaman77]

Originally Posted by Bobble

A little surprised to see the Tigers and Reds up in the top few.

The Tigers kind of make sense to me. There's a good chance that, in a few years, they'll be the next Phillies: a team with a huge payroll devoted to old and declining players and no farm system to speak of.

Their best shot at avoiding that fate is the fact that Dombrowski is the GM. He might just be able to help the team "reload" instead of rebuild by selling off a piece here or there for some great young guys.

As for the Reds, I can see it. They've got a very large portion of their payroll locked up in Votto, Bruce, and Bailey (good investments, but still a lot of money). They have some interesting prospects, but overall their farm system is unimpressive. And they don't really have a ton of money anyway. There are definitely lots of ways for that situation to get ugly if it's not managed carefully. I think next offseason they're going to need to start laying some groundwork for the future.

[clwalcott]

Originally Posted by Bobble

I wanted to include salaries and market size. I got the salaries from here and the market size data from here but I didn't want to give them the same weight in the formula as the prospect and record rankings so I took the square root of their rank (so they each effectively go from 1 to about 5.5 instead of 1 to 30). Salaries are ranked where the lowest salary is a #1 rank.

Brewers giving Philly a run for their money...

Team		Prospects	Record	Salary	Market	Sum	~Product
Philadelphia Phillies	25	25	28	11	89	10969
Milwaukee Brewers	29	17	15	30	91	10458
Atlanta Braves		24	14	17	17	72	5712
Arizona Diamondbacks	15	18	20	20	73	5400
Cincinnati Reds		16	14	19	28	77	5167
Detroit Tigers		27	9	26	13	75	4468
Cleveland Indians	20	21	5	22	68	4405
Colorado Rockies	10	23	14	25	72	4303
Chicago White Sox	21	23	11	5	60	3582
Miami Marlins		19	29	2	18	68	3306
Toronto Blue Jays	13	14	21	15	63	3230
Seattle Mariners	17	12	13	19	61	3206
Kansas City Royals	7	21	12	29	69	2742
Baltimore Orioles	12	18	16	7	53	2286
San Francisco Giants	22	7	24	9	62	2263
Texas Rangers		9	12	23	14	58	1938
San Diego Padres	11	10	10	23	54	1668
Oakland Athletics	28	8	6	9	51	1646
New York Yankees	23	10	29	1	63	1239
Washington Nationals	18	4	22	7	51	893
Los Angeles Angels	30	3	25	3	61	779
Houston Astros		5	30	1	16	52	600
New York Mets		8	25	9	1	43	600
Pittsburgh Pirates	3	18	4	27	52	561
St Louis Cardinals	6	4	18	24	52	499
Tampa Bay Rays		26	2	3	26	57	459
Chicago Cubs		2	27	8	5	42	342
Minnesota Twins		1	28	7	21	57	339
Boston Red Sox		4	4	27	12	47	288
Los Angeles Dodgers	14	1	30	3	48	133

A little surprised to see the Tigers and Reds up in the top few.

I would be surprised if the Giants, Padres and Mariners all had better records than Milwaukee

[rstoomeyii]

Originally Posted by Bobble

I wanted to include salaries and market size. I got the salaries from here and the market size data from here but I didn't want to give them the same weight in the formula as the prospect and record rankings so I took the square root of their rank (so they each effectively go from 1 to about 5.5 instead of 1 to 30). Salaries are ranked where the lowest salary is a #1 rank.

Brewers giving Philly a run for their money...

Team        Prospects    Record    Salary    Market    Sum    ~Product
Philadelphia Phillies    25    25    28    11    89    10969
Milwaukee Brewers    29    17    15    30    91    10458
Atlanta Braves        24    14    17    17    72    5712
Arizona Diamondbacks    15    18    20    20    73    5400
Cincinnati Reds        16    14    19    28    77    5167
Detroit Tigers        27    9    26    13    75    4468
Cleveland Indians    20    21    5    22    68    4405
Colorado Rockies    10    23    14    25    72    4303
Chicago White Sox    21    23    11    5    60    3582
Miami Marlins        19    29    2    18    68    3306
Toronto Blue Jays    13    14    21    15    63    3230
Seattle Mariners    17    12    13    19    61    3206
Kansas City Royals    7    21    12    29    69    2742
Baltimore Orioles    12    18    16    7    53    2286
San Francisco Giants    22    7    24    9    62    2263
Texas Rangers        9    12    23    14    58    1938
San Diego Padres    11    10    10    23    54    1668
Oakland Athletics    28    8    6    9    51    1646
New York Yankees    23    10    29    1    63    1239
Washington Nationals    18    4    22    7    51    893
Los Angeles Angels    30    3    25    3    61    779
Houston Astros        5    30    1    16    52    600
New York Mets        8    25    9    1    43    600
Pittsburgh Pirates    3    18    4    27    52    561
St Louis Cardinals    6    4    18    24    52    499
Tampa Bay Rays        26    2    3    26    57    459
Chicago Cubs        2    27    8    5    42    342
Minnesota Twins        1    28    7    21    57    339
Boston Red Sox        4    4    27    12    47    288
Los Angeles Dodgers    14    1    30    3    48    133

A little surprised to see the Tigers and Reds up in the top few.

How did you get your market rankings? Kinda shocked to see Boston as 12th. Also doesnt seem right giving the Mets the same market rating as the yanks. It is the same technically ya, but it is different.