Any way to change arbitration estimates and judgements?

CanadaCajanek21 · 05-12-2019, 09:37 PM

I have a few players who will be arbitration eligible. All three have been horrible in the MLB, and none are league average (going by OPS+ and ERA+) in AAA. However, all three are showing as having MASSIVE arb estimates. From $550k to over $3m. This is extremely unrealistic. I know you can adjust the baseline salaries for types of players, but I can't find anything for arbitration....

Findest2001 · 05-13-2019, 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadaCajanek21

I have a few players who will be arbitration eligible. All three have been horrible in the MLB, and none are league average (going by OPS+ and ERA+) in AAA. However, all three are showing as having MASSIVE arb estimates. From $550k to over $3m. This is extremely unrealistic. I know you can adjust the baseline salaries for types of players, but I can't find anything for arbitration....

I sympathize. I do, but 550k-3M isn't massive. It's below league average actually.

CanadaCajanek21 · 05-13-2019, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Findest2001

I sympathize. I do, but 550k-3M isn't massive. It's below league average actually.

I mean, kinda. I'm the Rays so that's huge.

But for instance, a guy named Chris Hermann who is 31 with 1 star, 1.5 star potential is estimated for 3.2m. He has a .302 OBP in AAA.

I was under the impression that for arb, it was 40% FA value for Arb1, 60% FA value for Arb2, and 80% value for Arb3. Even if that's somewhat off, that'd make him a $5m player if he were a FA. And in reality (in this game) he would most likely be signed as a minor leaguer with an invite to spring training, or one of those guaranteed $1m contract if promoted within 30 days.

Only thing I can think of is to cheat via Commish mode but I don't wanna do that as it skews things for the rest of the league

fsclb66 · 05-13-2019, 03:05 PM

Could try to withdraw your arb offers and sign them for cheaper when fa starts

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Findest2001 · 05-13-2019, 03:26 PM

I think age, plus factors such as defense and leadership ability, play a key role in arb estimates. He may not play well on the field but he may handle the pitching staff and be the clubhouse leader. Those things are very valuable. Also, they don't always sign for the estimate. I get deals all the time by offering a fair valuation. For example I had a closer once who had a 4.85 ERA, 67ERA+, but he had 42 saves. Because of the saves his arb estimate was IIRC around $12.5 Million. His salary that year was 545k. I thought NO WAY is he worth even 6M. So I offered 1.25 Million with the idea I would use him as a setup/low leverage reliever the following year, and I won the arbitration hearing!

The guy pitched worse than most of the league, but expected a 24x raise?!? Not on my watch

CanadaCajanek21 · 05-13-2019, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Findest2001

I think age, plus factors such as defense and leadership ability, play a key role in arb estimates. He may not play well on the field but he may handle the pitching staff and be the clubhouse leader. Those things are very valuable. Also, they don't always sign for the estimate. I get deals all the time by offering a fair valuation. For example I had a closer once who had a 4.85 ERA, 67ERA+, but he had 42 saves. Because of the saves his arb estimate was IIRC around $12.5 Million. His salary that year was 545k. I thought NO WAY is he worth even 6M. So I offered 1.25 Million with the idea I would use him as a setup/low leverage reliever the following year, and I won the arbitration hearing!

The guy pitched worse than most of the league, but expected a 24x raise?!? Not on my watch

Wow! I'll give this a try! I guess one thing I could do is to cheat and offer much lower as what I think they're realistically worth and if I lose, to re-load

starfox64 · 05-13-2019, 03:36 PM

You can also try negotiating extensions before arbitration, that usually works to cut down the cost. Or, if they really suck, you can just non-tender them and watch them sail into the sunset.

Boomcoach · 05-13-2019, 03:37 PM

I become fairly aggressive about withdrawing arbitration offers.

andyhdz · 05-14-2019, 03:04 PM

exactly you gotta know when to cut 'em loose. They'll understand, it's a business.

byzeil · 05-14-2019, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadaCajanek21

I mean, kinda. I'm the Rays so that's huge.

But for instance, a guy named Chris Hermann who is 31 with 1 star, 1.5 star potential is estimated for 3.2m. He has a .302 OBP in AAA.

I was under the impression that for arb, it was 40% FA value for Arb1, 60% FA value for Arb2, and 80% value for Arb3. Even if that's somewhat off, that'd make him a $5m player if he were a FA. And in reality (in this game) he would most likely be signed as a minor leaguer with an invite to spring training, or one of those guaranteed $1m contract if promoted within 30 days.

Only thing I can think of is to cheat via Commish mode but I don't wanna do that as it skews things for the rest of the league

You say the only thing you can think of is to cheat via commish mode....why? Not like you're talking a franchise type player. I'd play within the structure of the game and not offer him arbitration and then try to sign him to the minor league deal or the conditional major league deal that you theorize he would get. If you get him for that great else you are underestimating his value. That is part of the challenge/fun of the game. It isn't like if you loose him it is the end of the world, he is a 31yo minor league player who sounds like he could be replaced with any number of other minor league players.

Ghost Town · 05-14-2019, 05:06 PM

I withdraw from arbitration all the time. Bye bye & good luck on the open market.

BMW · 05-14-2019, 05:11 PM

Arbitration is supposed to be a gamble. Owner says X, Player says Y, arbitrator MUST either X or Y. If you don't want to play the game, you don't offer them arbitration at all (or sign them ahead of it).

You don't really get to tell the player "I think you should ask for less because it's not realistic." It's just not part of the equation at all. You choose your response to an offer you think is ridiculous. Don't offer arbitration or take the risk that the arbitrator thinks the Players figure is the better choice.

Fredrocker · 05-14-2019, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyhdz

exactly you gotta know when to cut 'em loose. They'll understand, it's a business.

Yes turn them loose... nothing like a pissed off pixelplayer...

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

LegalEagle80 · 05-15-2019, 05:07 PM

Can someone tell me where the "estimate" comes into play? I don't have the game in front of me, but from what I recall there's what the player demands and what your team is going to offer. Is that what you mean by "estimate?"

Findest2001 · 05-15-2019, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegalEagle80

Can someone tell me where the "estimate" comes into play? I don't have the game in front of me, but from what I recall there's what the player demands and what your team is going to offer. Is that what you mean by "estimate?"

If you go into a player's profile and click on the contract section and go into the bottom window and scroll all the way to the bottom there's a line reserved for giving you what you're either Scout or assistant GM assumes that person's arbitration estimate will be. As far as I know that estimate is what they believe that player will be awarded in arbitration.

sabrtoothtiger · 05-16-2019, 08:29 AM

non-tender them if you don't think they are worth what they are demanding. Especially as the Rays i'd consider moving guys in trade prior to them becoming arby eligible.

LegalEagle80 · 05-16-2019, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Findest2001

If you go into a player's profile and click on the contract section and go into the bottom window and scroll all the way to the bottom there's a line reserved for giving you what you're either Scout or assistant GM assumes that person's arbitration estimate will be. As far as I know that estimate is what they believe that player will be awarded in arbitration.

I've played this game for about 10 years and I've never even noticed that.

Findest2001 · 05-16-2019, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LegalEagle80

I've played this game for about 10 years and I've never even noticed that.

I'm glad I could help you learn something new

ADD: I use it ALL the time at the trade deadline to see if they have one more year expected under the dreaded $1M mark :P

05-12-2019, 09:37 PM	#1
CanadaCajanek21 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 102	Any way to change arbitration estimates and judgements? I have a few players who will be arbitration eligible. All three have been horrible in the MLB, and none are league average (going by OPS+ and ERA+) in AAA. However, all three are showing as having MASSIVE arb estimates. From $550k to over $3m. This is extremely unrealistic. I know you can adjust the baseline salaries for types of players, but I can't find anything for arbitration....

05-13-2019, 03:37 PM	#8
Boomcoach All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 811	I become fairly aggressive about withdrawing arbitration offers. __________________ Boomcoach Let's Go Crew

05-14-2019, 05:11 PM	#12
BMW Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,030	Arbitration is supposed to be a gamble. Owner says X, Player says Y, arbitrator MUST either X or Y. If you don't want to play the game, you don't offer them arbitration at all (or sign them ahead of it). You don't really get to tell the player "I think you should ask for less because it's not realistic." It's just not part of the equation at all. You choose your response to an offer you think is ridiculous. Don't offer arbitration or take the risk that the arbitrator thinks the Players figure is the better choice. __________________

05-16-2019, 08:29 AM	#16
sabrtoothtiger Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 137	non-tender them if you don't think they are worth what they are demanding. Especially as the Rays i'd consider moving guys in trade prior to them becoming arby eligible. __________________ Check out my Reds Franchise on YouTube

05-13-2019, 03:05 PM	#4
fsclb66 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 92	Could try to withdraw your arb offers and sign them for cheaper when fa starts Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

05-13-2019, 03:26 PM	#5
Findest2001 All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Boston Posts: 960	I think age, plus factors such as defense and leadership ability, play a key role in arb estimates. He may not play well on the field but he may handle the pitching staff and be the clubhouse leader. Those things are very valuable. Also, they don't always sign for the estimate. I get deals all the time by offering a fair valuation. For example I had a closer once who had a 4.85 ERA, 67ERA+, but he had 42 saves. Because of the saves his arb estimate was IIRC around $12.5 Million. His salary that year was 545k. I thought NO WAY is he worth even 6M. So I offered 1.25 Million with the idea I would use him as a setup/low leverage reliever the following year, and I won the arbitration hearing! The guy pitched worse than most of the league, but expected a 24x raise?!? Not on my watch

05-13-2019, 03:36 PM	#7
starfox64 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 67	You can also try negotiating extensions before arbitration, that usually works to cut down the cost. Or, if they really suck, you can just non-tender them and watch them sail into the sunset.

05-14-2019, 03:04 PM	#9
andyhdz All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Fresno, CA by way of Texas Posts: 1,754	exactly you gotta know when to cut 'em loose. They'll understand, it's a business.

05-14-2019, 05:06 PM	#11
Ghost Town Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 52	I withdraw from arbitration all the time. Bye bye & good luck on the open market.

05-15-2019, 05:07 PM	#14
LegalEagle80 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 113	Can someone tell me where the "estimate" comes into play? I don't have the game in front of me, but from what I recall there's what the player demands and what your team is going to offer. Is that what you mean by "estimate?"