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Old 05-17-2014, 10:36 AM   #1
OpusTheFowl
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IRL: When NHL players peak: Hockey metrics

When NHL players peak: Hockey metrics

A very relevant article for most here. Enjoy!
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Old 05-18-2014, 09:03 AM   #2
thepete
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That article is a joke, and their data is a few years old to boot. They even reference plus/minus, which really tells you all you need to know about the quality of the research.
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Old 05-18-2014, 10:54 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thepete View Post
That article is a joke, and their data is a few years old to boot. They even reference plus/minus, which really tells you all you need to know about the quality of the research.
I believe the +/- reference is really just the layman's explanation of Corsi/Fenwick which are a pretty accepted ways to measure a player's impact...Don't really understand why that because they picked a data set that ended two years ago, the article is a joke...

Guess we'll see in June...
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Old 05-18-2014, 11:11 AM   #4
thepete
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OpusTheFowl View Post
I believe the +/- reference is really just the layman's explanation of Corsi/Fenwick which are a pretty accepted ways to measure a player's impact...
No.

Quote:
For forwards especially, another key metric that Brander analyzed was players' plus-minus number. In the NHL, plus-minus for a player compares the number of goals scored by his team when he's on the ice versus the goals scored by his opponents.
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Old 05-18-2014, 11:36 AM   #5
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Like Corsi/Fenwick, +/- is an indicator...like it or not, IRDK...
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Old 05-20-2014, 03:38 AM   #6
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The use of plus-minus aside, there are some other things that raise red flags for me. He veers off into trying to explain the reasons for the patterns he's seeing, when that's really a whole separate subject - his determination that defencemen peak later may be correct, if you accept his methodology, but he's certainly got no empirical evidence that they develop slower because they "rely more on pattern recognition and anticipation."

And the choice of years for their data set isn't great. The cap was implemented halfway through that period, and it's given more teams an incentive to use cheaper entry-level players, so that's likely distorted the picture on career paths. And there's the issue of the the emergence of KHL in that period, pulling some players out of the NHL earlier than they'd normally leave.
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