2018 Tampa Bay Rays

[treymancini]

@ Miami continued
We made many transactions prior to this game. Mark Lowe was claimed from the Twins and added to the active roster. Lowe is a fairly average reliever who has a 3.92 ERA over 39 IP with Minnesota this season. To make room for him, Sergio Romo was designated for assignment. We also claimed and optioned Jarrett Martin from the Red Sox. Martin is a very strange player. His movement grade of 70 is one of the best I’ve ever seen. His control of 25 is uh…not. I have no idea what to make of him but he’s cheap, has option years, and allows virtually no homeruns.

We lost the second game to Miami and Wei-Yin Chen, as Archer struggled again. The third game saw Yonny Chirinos dominate the Marlins over 8 innings, and Chaz Roe strike out the side for his 7th save in the ninth, as we snuck by 2-1. The only runs scored by the Rays were on sac flies, but they got it done. Willy Adames went hitless in his debut.

After the game, we optioned RHP Jaime Schultz to Durham and re-instated Jose Alvarado from the DL. We were happy with Alvarado’s performance right before going on the DL, hopefully he continues that hot streak.
In the International Market, on July 6th we finally signed Dominican Marco Luciano for the full cap value. He has 80 POT power and 70 POT contact, and can play average defense at short. It was an easy choice.

[treymancini]

MLB TRADE WHISPERS
If it's rumored, we hear it...
BLUE JAYS ACQUIRE KELVIN HERRERA

The Toronto Blue Jays have acquired reliever Kelvin Herrera from the Kansas City Royals for infielder Aledyms Diaz. Toronto also received minor league outfielder Michael Gigliotti. Herrera has had a rough season so far, with a 4.31 ERA, but has still racked up a greater than 9.0 K/9 and 14 saves, for those who love that statistic. Kansas City will retain half of his remaining contract for the year, making the swap roughly equal in terms of salary. Herrera is a free agent at seasons end.

Diaz’s inclusion as the return for Kansas City is puzzling to put it simply. He has struggled to a .246/.285/.432 stat line, and has received poor defensive marks at shortstop. He has 3 more years of control following this season as a super two player, so perhaps Kansas City believes they can install him longterm in their lineup and hopefully get a player for under market value.

Gigliotti is a low contact good eye outfielder who becomes the 8th best prospect in the Toronto system. He should not be overlooked, despite lacking experience and being an age-22 player in the lower minors, forhis eye and glove are elite, and his contact might come along to be average.

Grades:
Toronto, A ---- Toronto gets a good reliever to help them in the stretch run, get his salary paid down, and get an interesting prospect, all for the cost of a 27-year old utility man essentially. Every GM in baseball makes this deal.

Kansas city, D- -----What on earth were they thinking? Paying down half of the salary of Herrera could have fetched a prospect, yet they go for the controllable major leaguer who will likely never amount to anything more than a below average starting shortstop.

[progen]

Royals do it again. Awful trade? GM must be Mickey Mouse!

[treymancini]

July 7th, 2018
I want to take a little break now and go over the state of the American League, and recap what has happened so far in the season. I plan to cover the National League a bit later but being an AL team focusing on the AL is smarter. First up, the AL East:

New York Yankees: 57-31, +84, #1 AL

The Yankees have cruised to a massive lead in the American League East to begin the season. They are led by the monster bat of Giancarlo Stanton, who has 33 homers and a .275/.389/.639 slash line, good for 3.8 WAR. But for the most part, their offense is actually rather average statistically, 10th in BA, 7th in OBP, 5th in SLG, 5th in OPS (although still 4th in Runs Scored!). The real strength of this team lies in their pitching, which is the 5th best rotation and 2nd best pen in the AL, good in total for 3rd best in the American League. They strikeout a ton of batters, and tend to not allow many hits in general. Robertson, Kahlne, Green, and Chapman are all on pace for over 2.0 WAR each out of the pen. Chapman is already there. Their biggest weaknesses are where the injured players are, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge (although Judge has struggled mightily). It is possible we see a trade, but I think they will probably acquire an impact starting arm to try and push them over the top.

Toronto Blue Jays: 45-43, +5, 12 GB East, 7 GB WC

Miraculously, the Blue Jays are not yet toast. They recently make a trade for a new set-up man in Kelvin Herrera, and they have standout performers here and there, but overall it’s stunning that this team is as good as they are given the injuries to Osuan, Estrada, Biagini, Happ, Pearce, Grichuk, and Watts. Curtis Granderson has had a resurgence, leading the American League in batting average, helping to pace an offense somehow statistically ranking better than that of the Yankees: 6th in BA, 5th in OBP, 3rd in SLG, 3rd in OPS, 6th in runs. The pitching is abysmal though, and if they want to get out of the wild card hole, they need to get one or two solid starters. Aaron Sanchez is 2nd in the AL in pitcher WAR and Josh Donaldson is 3rd in batter WAR. They have good players but not enough of them.

Boston Red Sox, 45-45, +31, 13 GB East, 8 GB WC

The Red Sox have been the victims of bad luck this year. Their Pythagorean suggests they’ve been robbed of a few wins, they lost Mookie Betts to an injury this year, and in general have underperformed. They are dead last in stolen bases, have very poor power numbers, and have in general been wasting a good season by the starting rotation, as Sale, Pomeranz, E-Rod, and Brian Johnson are all having very good years. Porcello and Price have struggled however. Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith anchor the 5th best bullpen in the majors, and the trade for Kurt Suzuki has panned out nicely. Given that JD Martinez has fallen off a cliff, and Marco Hernandez is struggling, they really need to go out and acquire a RF/DH bat to help that lineup play to form. Their top 3 prospects are all pitchers, all of home are having massive struggles in the minors.

Baltimore Orioles, 36-54, -74, 22 GB East, 17 GB WC

Everything went wrong for the Orioles this season, except for a few stars. Manny Machado is having a great year, and Schoop, O’Day, and Mancini are all performing as well, but this is a team that ranks near the bottom in every offensive category except homers (T-4th), and has a terrible starting rotation despite a solid relief corps. The question now is how much of their team is going to be sold, and honestly how much even has value at this point.

Tampa Bay Rays, 35-53, -73, 22 GB East, 17 GB WC

Obviously I’ll do a review of our team in more detail, but suffice it to say being below the orioles is not a good thing.

[treymancini]

Now onto the AL Central:

Cleveland Indians: 55-32, +181, #2 AL
Francisco Lindor is having one of the best season in MLB history, and is on pace for 12 WAR this season. That stunning statement aside, this is a great team, and in my opinion the best in the AL.They are first in nearly every category, both pitching and hitting. Trevor Bauer is a CY young candidate. This is a powerhouse, and they don’t even need to do anything at the deadline thanks to some early season moves.

Minnesota Twins: 52-36, +109, 3.5 GB Central, WC #2
The Twins have probably the second best offense behind their division rival, and are lead by the hot bat of Eddie Rosario of all people. Miguel Sano has 28 homers, and their starting pitching has been awesome. That said, they’ve sustained heavy injuries, so continuing this will require some trades.

Detroit Tigers: 40-51, -90, 17 GB Central, 13.5 GB WC
Nothing’s really gone right for the Tigers in yet another poor year in the directionless rebuild. The pitching is abysmal, and the hitting isn’t much better.

Kansas City Royals: 34-54, -100, 21.5 GB Central, 18 GB WC
The rotation is a revolving door, only Ian Kennedy has enough innings to qualify for leaderboards. Moustakas has been great though, and will be a valuable trade chip.

Chicago White Sox: 34-57, -100, 23 GB Central, 19.5 GB WC
The Pale Hose have already started selling, dumping Soria and Abreu, and it is reflected in their record. Just an abysmal year.

[treymancini]

Now the AL West:

Seattle Mariners: 55-35, +47, #3 AL
So this is a thing that somehow happened. That RD is shaky, and statistically nothing except for their bullpen and defense is good, and yet here we are. James Paxton is a CY candidate in an otherwise barren rotation. Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon have had good seasons but most everyone else has been average. Edwin Diaz has been unbeatable. Mike Zunino has more homers (23) than singles (16). Fun team, but they need serious rotation help to stay here.

Houston Astros: 55-36, +110, 0.5 GB West, +1.5 WC #1
Hot on the trail of the Mariners are the Astros. Colin McHugh and Derek Fisher have had massive breakout years. Jose Altuve has been awesome. Dallas Keuchel is a strikeout machine. This is a great offense, great pitching, but ultimately needs more to match up with the Indians, especially after losing Gerritt Cole for most of the regular season.

Oakland Athletics: 48-41, -4, 6.5 GB West, 4.5 GB WC
The A’s have been finding ways to win games, but I’m not sure it’s sustainable. The offense has a few studs like Khris Davis and Jed Lowrie but overall is lacking in talent. The bullpen is near the bottom in the league. They have stayed relatively healthy though, and have several high minors prospects, so a run on the wildcard isn’t out of the question. Davis has a whopping 33 HR, which helps the team place 3rd in the AL in long bombs.

LA Angels: 38-52, -68, 17 GB West, 15 GB WC
Mike Trout is doing Mike Trout things, Andrelton Simmons is still a glove wizard, and yup that’s the whole team basically. They still place 7th in runs scored just because of Trout, but dead last in the AL in runs allowed, thanks to a horrifying bullpen. The only silver lining is Roberto Perez has broken out, and considering he was initially a salary dump component of the Ian Kinsler trade, that’s huge for the Angels.

Texas Rangers: 37-53, -75, 18 GB West, 16 GB WC
Texas is just bad really. Elvis Andrus has almost 3 WAR, and Joey Gallo has a whopping 30 homers, but this team has struggled mightily on all sides. Their best days are behind them, which is further compounded by a staggering number of injuries. It’s in their best interest to sell hard and try to reload for next year, where hopefully they have less injuries. Beltre, Fister, Hamels, Moore, Kela, Diekman, all on the DL.

[treymancini]

@ NY Mets

Game 1 saw us drop a close one, 2-3, as Jake Faria picked up his tenth loss of the season in a solid start. We were held to four hits by Thor. The next game though saw a 3-2 game go in our favor thanks to clutch hitting by Matt Duffy in the ninth to take a lead, and a save by Diego Castillo. Mark Lowe made his debut with a solid 4 outs, and Alec Mills had a nice start. In game 3, Anthony Banda struggled in his second start, but we still took a 4-3 lead into the 9th, unfortunately lost by Diego Castillo on a solo homer to D’Arnaud. But in the 11th, Hechavarria hit an RBI sac fly, and Chaz Roe nailed down the save for a 5-4 win and a rare series win. Taking down a playoff team like the Mets had us rocket up to 22nd in the power rankings!
1B Ryan Zimmerman is out for the season, but he’s struggled anyway and won’t be a huge loss for the Nationals.

[treymancini]

MLB TRADE WHISPERS
If it's rumored, we hear it...
CARDINALS ACQUIRE ADEINY HECHAVARRIA

The St. Louis Cardinals have acquired shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria from the Rays in exchange for second baseman Max Schrock and minor league catcher Zachary Jackson. Minor league first baseman Nate Lowe will head from Tampa to St. Louis to complete the trade.

This is a major move by the Cardinals, currently just a half game back of the Cubs in the NL Central. They have gone through several ineffective shortstops in Paul Dejong and Greg Garcia, and they solve that problem by acquiring one of the game’s very best. Hechavarria has been by far the best player on the Rays this season, valued at 2.7 WAR. Although his numbers tapered off a bit in June, he has come right back. He makes a lot of contact and hits a fair amount of doubles, while being a plus defender at short. Hech is a free agent at season’s end.

The cost was not cheap though, as they gave up infielder Max Schrock, who becomes the #15 prospect for Tampa. Schrock is an elite contact hitter who has absolutely destroyed AAA, with over .300 avg, .400 obp, and .600 slg in his seasons there. He is more than ready for the bigs and will take over at second with ease. He is not however a strong defender, hence the hesitance by the Cards to simply use him at short.

Zachary Jackson is a solid power hitting prospect who fills a position of desperate need in the Rays system. Nate Lowe is a power hitting 1B who has stalled out in the mid minors for Tampa in a crowded system.

[treymancini]

It really hurt to give up Adeiny. He was the only good player on our team, posting 2.7 WAR, and he gave us hope. But only having a few more months of control and having the opportunity to get a great hitter like Schrock was too good to pass up.

[treymancini]

vs. Detroit

We received word that Jose Alvarado was out for the season. He ends his campaign with 30.2 IP of 4.70 ball, being worth exactly 0 WAR and 100 ERA+. Not the season we envisioned, but he showed some promise. Here’s hoping his second year is better. In addition, Anthony Rendon is out for the season in a massive blow to the Nationals, who are fighting with the Mets for the NL East lead.

Unfortunately, the series itself didn’t go any better. We got slaughtered in a horrible sweep. Every game was a blowout against the miserable Tigers. Jake Faria striking out ten was the only highlight.

[treymancini]

@ Minnesota

Game 1 was a resounding success as Alec Mills and Alex Colome combined for a 4-hit shutout of the Twins. Max Schrock had the only RBIs, scoring two on a clutch single up the middle. The second game saw an injury to Anthony Banda and our exhausted pen sink our chances late. Banda will miss two weeks. We lost the third game, 1-6 as the offense struggled once again to get going. In the final game, Chaz Roe blew an 8-6 9th inning lead in a loss to the Twins. Chris Archer was injured.

Chris Archer was named our lone All-Star, as expected. He will miss the game with injury.

[treymancini]

TRADE DEADLINE UPDATE: BARNES, SALAZAR, MINOR TRADES

The Los Angeles Dodgers swapped catcher Austin Barnes for pitcher Danny Salazar in a curious 1-for-1 trade of two established players. Barnes has slashed .241/.312/.446 for the Dodgers this season in limited playing time, but scouts around the league believe he could easily start for many teams at catcher. Salazar has been the victim of bad luck of late, and has struggled to a 4.86 ERA, but is still a quality pitcher with a good track record. Barnes has two more years of control remaining than Salazar.

For the Dodgers, this is the team dealing from a position of surplus, where Yasmani Grandal is entrenched as the starter, in order to improve their pitching for the stretch run. The Indians meanwhile improve a position of great weakness by giving up a player from their incredible depth. The curious thing about this trade is it is a swap of veterans between two teams who are currently the favorites to win their respective leagues. This could be an interesting story going forward.

Grades:
Los Angeles: A- ---- Barnes was expendable for this team, and they got another good pitcher to solidify one of the best rotations in major league baseball.

Cleveland: A- ----- Barnes is the more controllable player, and perhaps even the better one, but this move was about giving up a position of strength to shore up a weakness while also saving money for a bigger acquisition.

Elsewhere around MLB:

The Astros acquired reliever Dan Jennings from the Brewers for a minor league reliever, Jose Rivera.

The Yankees acquired reliever Oliver Drake from the Brewers for two minor league relievers.

[treymancini]

All-Star Game

We found out before the game Archer would miss a whopping 4 weeks. No ASG for him. The AL did win however, 5-4, and will have home field in the WS. It came down to the last out, when Mike Moustakas hit a walk-off 2 run double off of Kenley Jansen to win it.

Austin Pruitt was promoted to take the place of Archer. We’ve now lost Snell, Andriese, Archer, Hu, Gonzalez, and Banda of our starting candidates. Horrendous season.

[treymancini]

vs. Miami

Yonny Chirinos got hammered in a 12-1 blowout in game 1 of the series. His slump is definitely concerning, at one point we thought we had found a real starting weapon. The next game saw Jake Faria put together his fourth good start in a row, and the bullpen hold on to a lead started by Angel Pagan, for a great 5-2 win. Our final game saw us lose 2-5, as Alec Mills got roughed up in his start.

Neil Walker Extended by Yankees
A little bit of league news, the Yankees have extended 32-year old 2B Neil Walker for five years and 100 million dollars, with the fifth year being a vesting option dependent on 135 games played. This comes as a total stunner. Walker is having a great year, with 3 WAR and 128 OPS+, but he’s on the older side, and he’s not an elite talent, and soon he’ll have to move to first base anyways due to poor second base defense already. I can’t fathom why they would make this deal.
Grade: D-

[treymancini]

MLB TRADE WHISPERS
If it's rumored, we hear it...
ARIZONA, MIAMI, CHICAGO COMPLETE THREE TEAM TRADE

A few days ago, a trade was struck between Arizona and Chicago. One of those players was then sent to Miami, thus completing the three-way trade. To break the trade into components, firstly:

The Diamondbacks acquired reliever Gregory Infante from the Chicago White Sox, as well as outfield prospect Blake Rutherford, in exchange for pitching prospect Ezequiel De La Cruz. Infante has been decent for the Sox, and comes at the league minimum, and Rutherford is an interesting outfield prospect. Meanwhile, De La Cruz is a pitching prospect who most scouts believe has little promise. An odd trade for sure, one that shouldn’t have necessitated the inclusion of Rutherford. Blake Rutherford is currently the #157 prospect in MLB.

Then, a few days later, another trade was made, this time between Miami and Arizona. Miami received young Blake Rutherford (#157 MLB) as well as outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker, age 30, who has had a good season for the Snakes in very limited bench roles (89 AB). Arizona received pitchers Brandon Miller and Cody Poteet, both of whom are at the A-advanced level in the minors. Both pitchers are not top prospects, but each has a chance to make a rotation one day, as a #4 or #5.

Trade Grades:

Arizona: Acquired SP Brandon Miller, SP Cody Poteet, RP Gregory Infante, Traded RF Jeremy Hazelbaker, RP Ezequiel De La Cruz:
Grade: B+: This was a solid trade agreement for the snakes. They essentially turned one minor pitching prospect into two arguably better ones and swapped a useful bench piece in Jeremy Hazelbaker for Gregory Infante. A lot worse could have been done.

Miami: Acquired CF Blake Rutherford, RF Jeremy Hazelbaker, Traded SP Cody Poteet, SP Brandon Miller:
Grade: B+: Another fascinating swap where Miami seemed to come out ahead. They gave up two minor pitching prospects to go all in in the sweet-swinging outfielder, Rutherford. They also acquire a controllable, if limited player in Hazelbaker to complete the swap.

Chicago A: Acquired RP Ezequiel De La Cruz, Traded CF Blake Rutherford, RP Gregory Infante
Grade: F An odd trade for sure, one that shouldn’t have necessitated the inclusion of Rutherford. They gave up an fringe reliever and a decent prospect for just some minor league pitcher that likely won’t go anywhere. Strange deal.

[treymancini]

vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees outplayed us in the first two games of this series, as we were unable to hold on to some leads and the offense was kept locked down. A few of the rookie starters we’ve promoted are doing well though, they are non-prospects but maybe desperation might find a legitimate ballplayer. Yonny Chirinos came out of his slump in game 3 to score a 3-2 win for the team. Tim Hill got his first save of the season. We activated Anthony Banda from the DL and sent him on a rehab to get him out the way for a bit.

[treymancini]

MLB TRADE WHISPERS
If it's rumored, we hear it...
WHITE SOX ACQUIRE CJ CRON

The White Sox have acquired first baseman CJ Cron from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor league relief pitcher Ian Hamilton. The White Sox have miniscule playoff chances, despite a recent surge, but in acquiring Cron, they lock down a player who will make affordable arbitration money for two more years after this season. Cron is hitting .255/.300/.477, with his power once again dominating his game. He has played DH mostly for the Rays, but he is capable with the glove at first base. He should have no problem stepping into a starting role in Chicago, although he is obviously a downgrade from Jose Abreu.

The issue is what they gave up. Ian Hamilton is a big-league ready reliever with a powerful arm and great stuff. His movement and control are average or even a bit below, but with two elite pitches he’s at least a middle reliever, if not better. For Chicago to give up a prospect like Hamilton amid a rebuild for a 28-year old slugger is a bold move for sure. This is the latest head-scratching move the Chicago organization has made. Rumors have also been swirling about them offering up other pitching prospects such as Aaron Bummer for the Orioles’ Kevin Gausman, the then-Rays’ Adeiny Hechavarria (since traded to STL), and the Tigers’ Jose Iglesias, the latter two being free agents after the season. Clearly there is an ownership push to not finish last in the division/league, and so far, they have achieved that goal, passing the Royals in the AL.

Grant Kay was promoted to take Cron’s spot.

[treymancini]

@ Baltimore
Game 1 was a disappointment we are very used to. We held a lead, then Faria coughed it up in the fith, the bullpen bled a few runs, and we failed to score anything at all. The Rays rode a solid start by Alec Mills in game two to hang onto a lead with Martin, Hill, and Roe shutting down the oriole offense out of the pen. Matt Duffy hit a homer.

[treymancini]

MLB TRADE WHISPERS
If it's rumored, we hear it...
MINOR TRADES: GAUSMAN, BREWERS, LOGAN

The Brewers have struck a pair of minor trades today. The first one sent catcher Stephen Vogt to Baltimore in exchange for pitcher Kevin Gausman. This is an immensely puzzling trade by the Orioles, who give up a player with one additional year of control for a player who is a free agent after this year, and has been by all accounts terrible, struggling to a .186/.276/.304 slash line for Milwaukee. Gausman on the other hand is a competent if unexciting starting pitcher, who will make about two million more than Vogt.
Grades:
Baltimore, F
Milwaukee, A

The Brewers also sent relief pitcher Boone Logan packing off to Boston, where he will hopefully boost a thin bullpen. In return, they receive minor league shortstop Aaron Perry and minor league center fielder Danny Mars. Perry, 19, looks to have a future in the big leagues as a utility player. Mars could be a fourth outfielder. The Brewers gave up pitcher Justin Bullock, age 19, to the Sox to complete the trade. Bullock appears to be a non-prospect. Logan has a 5.35 ERA this season but may be the victim of a bad .424 BABIP.

Grades:
Boston, B-
Milwaukee, B+

[treymancini]

MLB TRADE WHISPERS
If it's rumored, we hear it...
RAYS, PADRES COMPLETE 6 PLAYER SWAP

The Tampa Bay Rays have acquired RF Hunter Renfroe, infield prospect Esteuery Ruiz (#24 Rays), swingman Luis Perdomo, and minor league second baseman Tucupita Marcano in exchange for pitcher Jake Faria and minor league catcher Edgardo Rodriguez.

This blockbuster deal comes the day before the deadline, and sees the Rays former “ace of the future” shipped out of town for Renfroe and prospects. Faria has seen a significant increase in walks and hits this year, leading to a 5.22 ERA and 3-11 record. But he is only one year removed from a great rookie campaign, and could rebound in a huge way for the Padres. Rodriguez is likely minor league depth.

From the Rays side, they get a bunch of new players. Luis Perdomo will take a spot in the bullpen likely, Renfroe will become a new starting right fielder, and Ruiz has massive potential, if he can live up to it. Renfroe has slashed .318/.338/.527 for the Padres this season and is generally considered a plus defender. Both Faria and Renfroe have four years of control left, possibly five. Perdomo has bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, but put together a solid season last year as a reliever. Esteury Ruiz has plus contact and power potential, and if he puts it together he could be a potential star. And Marcano is a solid contact hitting infield prospect, the type the Rays have been acquiring by the dozens seemingly.