The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

You had to know it was coming as I can't help myself. But I am going to do something different here from my other Rays dynasties - I'm going to post mostly on a seasonal basis instead of series-by-series or even month-by-month. I'm simming out most of these games rather than managing them so as to get through the season quickly but still GMing.

So here's the story of the 2023 Rays. Coming off an 86-76 season in which they made the third wild card but were summarily dismissed by Cleveland after scoring one run in two games, the big question going into the season was the offense. Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco missed large chunks of 2022 and the hope was that they a healthy return by both and perhaps some contributions from Josh Lowe and Luke Raley who spent most of last year at Durham would get the offense to a respectable level to go with the club's customary great pitching. And the pitching really is something to behold, especially beefed up this year with the return from injury of Tyler Glasnow and the free agent signing of Zach Eflin.

Things did not start out all that great, despite an easy schedule that opened with the likes of Detroit, Washington and Oakland as the Rays struggled through April at 14-14. Glasnow missed the month with a strained oblique but came back in May and pitched well (a 2.78 ERA with 45 whiffs in 32 IP). May was a bit better month at 17-12 but the Rays found themselves in a third wild card dogfight and were 7 1/2 back of first-place Toronto with the offense continuing to struggle.

So a big trade was made:



Even though he was signed to an extension in the offseason, it was always a matter of time before Glasnow was traded, especially with him due to be paid $25M next season. In return we received what we feel will be an impact bat in Vargas, and a live arm in Pepiot who can take Glasnow's place in the rotation with both under team control for several more years to come. The Dodgers meanwhile are off to a blazing start and are dreaming of another World Series title. We had to include Bitsko, our 2020 1st-round pick, to get the deal done but after surgeries the bloom is off his rose.

The deal helped energize the team, and the Rays had a 19-8 June to propel them into contention. They weren't quite as hot in July at 14-10 but Toronto had gone into a slump and the Rays still moved into first place. Sensing another bat was needed, we hooked up with the Cubs on a rental:



Happ is a quintessential Rays player: able to play multiple positions on the IF and OF with a good glove, draws walks, etc. Wilcox is a good prospect but wasn't delivering on his promise this year at AA.

We also made a minor deal to make room for Happ, sending Harold Ramirez, who had lost most of his ABs to Vargas, to Seattle for minor league hurler Isaiah Campbell, the kind of sneaky arm this club picks up and turns into an effective reliever with 55/55/55 ratings and some 60s in there for potential.

Between the Vargas and Happ acquisitions, and guys like B.Lowe and Isaac Paredes shaking off slow starts, the offense kicked into high gear and we ended up running away with the division, clinching on September 19 and finishing 103-59, the best record in the AL after going 39-14 over the last two months. The final standings:



Yandy Diaz, who took a step up in 2022, took an even bigger step up in 2023 and nearly won the batting title.



We may have slightly outplayed our Pythagorean record but we were every bit the deserving 100-win team. In April and May there were a lot of double-digit rankings in the offensive numbers but that turned around in a big way. The only thing here you can ding us for is the bullpen, which had its ups and downs but really didn't blow too many games.



Wander had the star-caliber full season we knew he was capable of and would have pushed 6 WAR had he not missed most of September with a groin injury. He'll be back for the playoffs though. As mentioned Yandy had an incredible year, amassing 200 hits and nearly 100 walks, leading MLB with a .416 OBP with Juan Soto nearest at .402. The other very pleasant surprise was the production from the catching tandem of Francisco Mejia and Christian Bethancourt. Seen as a weak spot going into the year the pair combined for 19 HR, 100 RBI and almost a .280 BA. And Vargas was everything as advertised, becoming a middle-of-the-lineup offensive force and combined with his LA numbers finished 311/376/524 with 25 HR and 111 RBI.



The pitching of course was its typical team strength, and the top four starters all had fine years with Eflin doing what we envisioned him doing when he was signed as a free agent. Pepiot had his ups and downs as a fifth starter but the arm is special and he'll be a nasty multi-inning reliever in the playoffs. The revelation of the staff was Jalen Beeks, who became a nasty multi-inning reliever of his own, earning 2.3 WAR with 133 whiffs in 84 IP. Yonny Chirinos didn't spend much time at Durham before we pulled the plug on Josh Fleming as the fill-in for Glasnow and had a great year as a swingman. There was a fair amount of churn after Beeks, Fairbanks and Adam (we returned Rule 5 guy Kevin Kelly to Cleveland after some lousy pitching), and that's part of why we finished 9th in the AL in bullpen ERA. But we didn't win 103 games without all phases of the team contributing.

The farm remained a strength with Durham and Bowling Green having big years and moving on in their playoffs. A look at the prospects at season's end:



Kyle Manzardo had a massive year (42 HR) at Durham and is ready to rake in the majors, although with Yandy and Vargas holding down 1B and DH on the big club it might be a tough fit. Ditto for Taj Bradley as the five starters in the rotation should all return in 2024. It was a lost year for Carson Williams though as he missed most of it after a ruptured Achilles tendon. Curtis Mead got a run for a couple of weeks with the big club before Miguel Vargas was acquired and didn't hit much but still has a special bat. He's in the same boat as Manzardo when it comes to being blocked, though.

The draft:



BNN isn't very high on Gasparino as he was absent from the list above, ranked as our #30 prospect. He did only hit .148 in 27 complex league games. They do like Cuvet however, making him the #45 overall prospect. Cuvet has 75 potential power and was a respectable 247/363/455 with 4 homers in 27 complex games. All five of our top picks were high-schoolers.

Next up: The 2023 playoffs!

[Art Deco]

We will now have to beat the defending champion Astros to advance to the ALCS.








The playoff tree:

[Art Deco]

One thing the Rays showed over the second half of the season is that this version of the team can hit, and they demonstrated it today at Tropicana Field in the opener. Houston took a 4-1 lead in the 4th off a shaky Shane McClanahan and in years past that might have been a death sentence for the team but they came back and put 12 on the board in the bottom of the inning and went on to a 16-5 rout of the Astros. It was a team effort led by Brandon Lowe with everyone in the lineup contributing except ironically the team's best player in Wander Franco.

Game 2:



For all the world it looked like the Astros would even up the series going back to Houston as once again a Rays starter struggled and for the second straight game they faced a 4-1 deficit. This one took longer to come back from, but come back they did off Houston closer Ryan Pressly, tying it in the 8th with a big 2-run triple from Miguel Vargas, and walking it off in the 9th on Yandy Diaz's homer. They now have a chance to go to Houston and sweep.

Game 3:



And sweep they did as Jose Siri had a huge game against his former team and they overcame another shaky start from a starter and overwhelmed the Astros with 10 runs, scoring 31 in total over the 3-game sweep. The Rays will now face Minnesota in the ALCS after they disposed of Texas:



Over in the NL we'll have a rematch of last year's NLDS:

[Art Deco]

A nice comprehensive win for the Rays with Mac dealing and Happ and Arozarena leading the offensive charge.

Game 2:



A tough one as you'd think the offense could do better than four hits against a Twins team that had to piece together a bullpen game after starter Sonny Gray left in the 3rd with an injury. Zach Eflin pitched his heart out but received no support.

Game 3:



The bats were largely AWOL again, Springs wasn't very good and the Rays now find themselves trailing in the ALCS.

Game 4:



Backs to the wall now as Game 4 was essentially a carbon copy of Game 3. The offense which mauled Houston in the ALDS is nowhere to be found these days.

Game 5:



The Rays' playoff life flashed before their eyes after Jason Adam gave up a 2-run homer to Byron Buxton in the 7th to blow a 3-1 lead but the offense came through in the 10th with 3 runs to keep the 2023 season alive for Tampa Bay. Josh Lowe was inserted into the lineup to replace the slumping Ian Happ and came through, going 2-3 with a steal and an RBI and then when a lefty came in, Happ's infield single started the 10th-inning rally.

Game 6:



Randy Arozarena had been known for coming through on the biggest stages after his record-setting 2020 playoffs and his heroics for Mexico in this year's World Baseball Classic, but he was relatively quiet this postseason. Until tonight that is as his grand slam was the difference with the Rays forcing a deciding Game 7 tomorrow night.

Game 7:



Man, what a gut-punch. Two outs away from a return to the World Series and a comeback from 1-3 down in the ALCS, Pete Fairbanks served up a 3-run homer to Jorge Polanco and the Twins took Game 7 to advance to the Fall Classic. Fairbanks' blown save wasted a heroic effort from Jose Siri, who twice homered tonight to put the Rays ahead, including a solo shot in the 7th which gave them a 4-3 lead. This one is gonna sting.

So who will Minnesota be playing in the World Series?




It will be a rematch of the 1965 World Series as the Dodgers had to overcome blowing a 3-0 series lead to take Game 7 from the Padres and avenge last year's NLDS upset. Maybe Sandy Koufax and Jim Kaat can throw out the first pitches.

[CBLCardinals]

Awesome!!

Love following your dynasties with Tampa.

#Raysup

[Art Deco]

A pretty shocking development as the Twins swept the Dodgers, so the Rays can at least say they lost to the champs.

[Art Deco]

If not for a Pete Fairbanks blown save in Game 7 that could have been us sweeping the Dodgers in the World Series and getting revenge for 2020. Alas it wasn't so we'll have to pick ourselves off the floor and try again in 2024. The good news is that the entire gang (save Ian Happ, who wasn't quite the post-deadline boost we hoped he'd be anyway) can come back and we can afford them all:



With the deep run in the playoffs and his desire to get a new stadium built owner Stu Sternberg has finally allowed a 9-digit payroll, in the neighborhood of $120M. Keeping everyone listed here plus all the minimum-salary guys adds up to a projected $112M, but I'm not sure we're going to keep everybody. In fact our second-highest-paid guy, Manuel Margot, is going to be at best the short side of a RF platoon as things currently stand and hence will be overpaid at $10M. Andrew Kittredge and his $3.8M are iffy as well given that he missed the entire 2023 season with injury.

A position-by-position look:

C-Mejia and Bethancourt combined to drive in 100 runs last season so what was once considered a weakness is now a strength.

1B-Yandy Diaz keeps getting better and he broke out from his 2022 breakout season.

2B-Brandon Lowe started slow but eventually got the power numbers there even though the BA was around .230 in the end.

SS-Wander Franco needs no introduction.

3B-Isaac Paredes had a solid (2.4 WAR) season despite only hitting .217 with 21 HR, as he fielded the position well.

IF-Taylor Walls is the platonic ideal of an IF backup with a good glove, speed and some ability to get on base even if he isn't that much of a hitter.

LF-Randy Arozarena also needs no introduction.

CF-Jose Siri took the job by the throat last year and was pretty good and then followed it up with an incredible postseason. 75 D with a 10.1 ZR is something to really like.

RF-We dealt for Happ perceiving a need to upgrade here but Josh Lowe actually started becoming quite productive down the stretch when he got to play so the job is his for now, at least on the strong side of the platoon where could pair with Margot.

OF-Margot is the 4th OF when not platooning with J.Lowe. Luke Raley started 2023 with the club and could be back if I want some pop off the bench; otherwise rookie Mason Auer, an elite fielder with speed and a little pop, could be an option.

DH-Miguel Vargas can flat-out hit, and I look forward to a full season of him in Rays colors. He can also back up 1B/3B

Rotation-McClanahan/Eflin/Springs/Rasmussen/Pepiot all return. Taj Bradley, our top pitching prospect, had an OK season at Durham but gave up a whopping 39 homers in 197 IP. Long man Yonny Chirinos is available as depth, and Luis Patino is still there at Durham. EDIT: Oh yeah, totally forgot about Shane Baz who missed the entire 2023 season. Right now based on his ratings he looks like a 4th/5th starter and we'll see what the scouts say when comes back in the spring; he could move Pepiot to long relief.

Bullpen-It also remains intact, although Fairbanks is not quite the lights-out close I hoped he'd be. If Kittredge is really healthy with his stuff intact he could help, but still not sure I wanna pay $3.6M to find out.

Prospects-There are several knocking on the door. Kyle Manzardo and Curtis Mead can both hit (Manzardo had 42 HR last year for Durham) but they're blocked by Yandy and Vargas at 1B/DH. As mentioned Bradley could help the rotation but needs to get the homers down and Michael Mercado took a step forward at Durham last year and has a big-league future.

So there's really not a lot to do - I doubt we find a taker for Margot at $10M and it's not worth it to eat much salary on him because I'd have no problem, say, paying him $5M to provide excellent defense and be a 4th OF. Still I'll see what becomes available either on the trade block or via free agency if there's an upgrade to be had.

[Art Deco]

Notable retirements: Future Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Zack Greinke hung 'em up, as did former Ray Chris Archer.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: We had a winner as Randy Arozarena took the AL LF award. Thought Jose Siri might stand a chance in CF but he lost to Byron Buxton, whose name we'll hear a bit more of shortly.

Reliever of the Year: Seattle's Matt Brash (8 W, 10 SV, 1.20 ERA) took the AL nod while Atlanta's Raisel Iglesias (47 SV, 2.63 ERA) won in the NL.

Silver Slugger: Wander Franco won at AL SS.

Rookie of the Year: Thought Miguel Vargas might win but he was nosed out by Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson (.281-20-63) 108-99 and 14-12 in 1st-place votes. The NL winner was Colorado's Ezequiel Tovar (.326-18-76)

Cy Young: Jacob deGrom, who went 17-7, 3.22 his first year in Texas, now has the award in both leagues, and Yu Darvish (14-11, 2.88) beat out the Mets' Max Scherzer to win in the NL.

MVP: Byron Buxton finally stayed healthy for a full season and put up a massive .260-57-116, 6.7 WAR season to just get past Julio Rodriguez (.312-34-105, 7.2 WAR) and Aaron Judge (.282-53-114, 6.7 WAR) in an incredibly fragmented AL decision that saw those three finish 313-300-295 and 13-9-8 in the voting. It was also a nail-biter in the NL as Nolan Arenado (.302-33-130, an NL-best 6.8 WAR) just get past Fernando Tatis Jr. (.294-41-114, 6.6 WAR) by a 349-339 and 16-14 margin. Perhaps if Tatis didn't miss the first few weeks due to suspension he might have gotten over the top.

We made a trade:



With only one player departing via free agency (Ian Happ), we weren't going to have too many open 40-man spots so we shopped the Rule 5-eligible Alexander Ovalles to see what we could get and were offered Wells by the Yankees, their 2021 1st-round pick. A look at Wells:



It can't have been a popular deal in New York as Wells had nice year at AAA and is pretty much MLB-ready, although he doesn't have to go on our 40-man. It also solves some position imbalance issues we had as we were loaded with 1B prospects but a bit thin on upper-level OFs who could help us in 2024.

Arbitration came and went and we settled with everyone, leaving us with $16M to spend on additional payroll.

November 29: Atlanta traded pitching prospect Bryce Elder in a 4-player deal that saw Detroit ship them Matt Manning.

December 1: More interesting trades. The Yankees and rival Red Sox hooked up with Clay Holmes headed to Boston for a couple of prospects including catcher Nate Hickey. The Blue Jays sent C Danny Jansen to the Angels for IF Brandon Drury, and the Tigers sent former Ray Austin Meadows to San Francisco for a couple of minor leaguers. Finally once-promising prospect Jo Adell is getting a change of scenery as the Angels sent him to Pittsburgh.

December 3: The Dodgers signed former Ray Tyler Glasnow to a 2/53 contact extension. Good luck and good health to Tyler.

December 4: Some big free agent news:

The St. Louis front office announced the signing of Shohei Ohtani today as the team's new starting pitcher. The 29-year-old came to terms with the Cardinals and will be hauling in $27,800,000 a year over 6 years.

In his career, Ohtani has fanned 663 batters and walked 176 in 537.1 innings of work. His lifetime won-lost record is 37 victories and 25 defeats with a 3.58 ERA and opposing hitters have compiled a .214 batting average against him.

Of course he'll also do some hitting for them.

December 7: Boston sent OF Alex Verdugo to Toronto for pitching prospect Adam Kloffenstein.

December 10: This year's free agent class isn't that exciting now that Ohtani has signed as Matthew Boyd was one of the bigger names left; he's now gone to Houston on a 5/62 deal.

December 11: Someone a little more exciting than Boyd was signed today as Miami broke out the checkbook for a change and signed Julio Urias to a 7/165 mega-deal.

December 13: Some more signings as former Dodger Max Muncy joined Detroit on a 4/60 contract and a couple of pitchers who have seen better days joined new teams with Mike Clevinger to Atlanta for 1/4 and Lucas Giolito to Kansas City for 1/5.3.

December 16: Added Ps Michael Mercado and Jacob Lopez to the 40-man roster; designated IF/OF Greg Jones for assignment.

Some roster shuffling ahead of the Rule 5 Draft. Jones, our #1 pick in 2019, hasn't quite panned out and should clear waivers.

December 17: The Rule 5 Draft:



Some recognizable names here including a couple of former Rays prospects in Ronaldo Hernandez and Tommy Romero. Nobody lost on our end.

December 20: Claimed P Jovani Moran on waivers from Minnesota, designated P Josh Fleming for assignment.

Minnesota waived Moran in their Rule 5 roster crunch so we took advantage. The lefty has 75 stuff, 65 movement (and 35 control) but fanned 114 in 73 IP last year with the Twins and earned 1.6 WAR. Fleming failed in his shot to replace Tyler Glasnow early last season and while he was OK at Durham, we'll take our chances with him not clearing.

December 24: Claimed P Phil Bickford on waivers from the Dodgers, designated P Ryan Thompson for assignment.

If teams are going to keep on waiving good relievers, we're going to keep claiming them. Thompson struggled last year with a 5.66 ERA, becoming very home-prone with 13 allowed in 66 IP.

Also the Marlins sent SP Trevor Rogers to Houston for 3 prospects.

December 26: Andrew Kittredge, whom we non-tendered after missing 2023 with injury, inked a 1-year, $950K deal with the Phillies.

Meanwhile the Rangers traded top prospect Evan Carter as well as another decent prospect in Luisangel Acuna to the Pirates for closer David Bednar.

December 27: Our rental free agent Ian Happ has gone back to Chicago, but this time to the White Sox on a 4/57 contract.

December 30: The Red Sox shipped Chris Sale to the desert as he joins the D-backs in exchange for a low-level prospect.

Meanwhile, here's a biggie of a trade:

In an effort to add some depth to its roster, the New York Yankees have swapped 22-year old SS Anthony Volpe and 23-year old minor league 2B Caleb Durbin to the Chicago White Sox for 30-year old SS Tim Anderson. The Yankees GM told reporters, "We saw a chance to upgrade our ball club and took it."

Chicago will retain a portion of Anderson's remaining contract.

In his career, Anderson has compiled a .293 batting average and collected 1103 hits, 112 home runs and 381 RBIs.

January 5: Milwaukee sent former Rays SS Willy Adames to the Dodgers for a pitching prospect.

January 8: Speaking of former Rays, OF Hunter Renfroe cashed in with a 6/116 deal in Cincinnati after another of his usual 30-homer seasons.

January 17: The ballots are counted and the results are in. Unfortunately, no player was elected to the Hall of Fame this year. The top vote getter was Todd Helton, who received votes from 69.6% of eligible electors.

1B Todd Helton 69.6 (6th year)
3B Adrian Beltre 69.0 (1st year)
CF Carlos Beltran 68.4 (2nd year)
C Joe Mauer 65.6 (1st year)
RF Gary Sheffield 59.2 (10th year) Dropped
CL Billy Wagner 57.1 (9th year)
CL Francisco Rodriguez 45.1 (2nd year)
SS Alex Rodriguez 43.6 (3rd year)

January 23: Houston and Kansas City announced some roster changes today as the Astros acquired 25-year old C MJ Melendez from the Royals in exchange for 28-year old LF Chas McCormick.

January 30: Preseason began and Stu Sternberg decided to kick in an extra $8M for payroll.

February 17: Just got word that Garrett Cleavinger's injury is worse than believed and he'll be out for all of 2024. Thankfully we claimed Jovani Moran to take over as our power lefty in the pen.

March 3: A few of the straggling free agents found new homes on one-year deals with Michael Brantley (MIL, $3.2M), Teoscar Hernandez (STL, $4.1M) and Gio Urshela (ARI, $3.0M) signing.

March 10: Some interesting names had to settle for minor league deals: Josh Bell (TOR), Harrison Bader (MIA), Cavan Biggio (STL), Kevin Kiermaier (CHC), James Paxton (SF).

March 15: Joey Gallo signed a 1/6 deal with the Angels.

March 18: A late spring trade:



Luis Patino was out of options and wasn't likely to make the team, so we offered him around and the Dodgers were willing to give us Busch, a solid player who can be slotted at 1B or 2B. Neither are positions of need (especially 1B), but if Busch were to make the team we could play him some at 2B and stick B.Lowe in LF. He's got some pretty good ratings and really good numbers:



March 23: Easy come, easy go on Phil Bickford. Stolen off waivers over the winter, he's torn his rotator cuff and will miss 4 months.

[Art Deco]

One last trade before the season started as Vidal Brujan was out of options and I wanted to keep the newly-acquired Michael Busch on the roster:



Saggese has an interesting bat (he had 36 HR & 121 RBI at High-A Hickory) but a suspect glove:



We also signed a couple of vets to minor league contracts: C Gary Sanchez and OF Mitch Haniger.

So the Opening Day roster is set, and pretty much is the one we finished 2023 with save a couple of exceptions:

C-Mejia, Bethancourt
1B-Y.Diaz
2B-B.Lowe
SS-W.Franco
3B-Paredes
IF-Walls, Busch
LF-Arozarena
CF-Siri
RF-J.Lowe
OF-Margot
DH(IF)-Vargas

SP-McClanahan, Eflin, Springs, Rasmussen, Pepiot
LR-Chirinos
MR-Beeks, Armstrong, Brigden, Poche
SU-Adam, Moran
CL-Fairbanks

IL-Baz (eta Mid-May), Bickford (Aug), Cleavinger (out for season)

The preseason predictions love us:



Opening Day:



2024 began just as 2023 ended - with Pete Fairbanks blowing a save. This time it wasn't his pitching but his fielding as threw wildly to first on Cedric Mullins' comebacker which should have ended the game, and then Jovani Moran (in his Rays debut) walked the bases loaded and Shawn Armstrong walked in the first time he faced to force in the winning run on a walk-off walk.

[Art Deco]

Decided to compromise on posts for this dynasty, instead of annual or monthly I'm going to do bi-monthly, or 3 posts a regular season. This will take us through the trade deadline in the second post so it's kind of a neat dividing line.

Record: 30-21
First place AL East, 1 game up on Baltimore

It was a pretty decent start to 2024 for the Rays, better than last season's at least and they went on to win 103 games. Not expecting them to get as ridiculously hot as they did midseason last year so we'll just take what we have for now. No injuries of significance, and no real changes to the lineup. The only roster move of interest we did make was to take Ryan Pepiot out of the rotation and call up Taj Bradley to replace him. Pepiot had been struggling (2-2, 5.20 in 6 starts). The other moves of note were to send down Colin Poche and Shawn Armstrong, and replace them with Bradley and Colby White, who was up last season for a bit and has looked really good in the pen with his 70 stuff.

We did make a trade to bolster the staff in mid-May though, sending 1B prospect and 2022 #1 pick Xavier Isaac to Oakland for swingman Jack Perkins, and the righty with 75 stuff out of the pen has been excellent for us in his first several appearances.

On the offensive side Michael Busch wasn't producing off the bench so he was sent to Durham in late May and Austin Wells, acquired in that preseason trade with the Yankees, was recalled after hitting 312/412/759 with 15 HR in 112 AB at Durham. One thing I've noticed with the new saves in OOTP24 is that minor league hitting has exploded, so I'm mentally discounting a lot of the numbers I'm seeing but Wells' numbers were backed up by his ratings which got a boost from the scouts.



Nobody's off to an amazing start this year in MLB with our 30-21 record only bettered by the Dodgers at 31-20. The Orioles have been red-hot and hard to shake with their youngsters really coming through - Gunnar Henderson was AL Batter of the Month for May, Grayson Rodriguez Pitcher of the Month and Coby Mayo Rookie of the Month.



Nothing to complain about here, except for the lack of homers as several of our guys are off their normal pace. Still we're 2nd in the AL in runs scored so just imagine once they start hitting them out, I guess.



Solid hitting all around with Brandon Lowe off to a better start than 2023 and Josh Lowe really coming into his own. Miguel Vargas' sophomore jinx has been the big problem -he's driving in runs but not doing much else as he hasn't hit for power and 263/288/378 is what I expect from Taylor Walls, not my DH. Wells may start cutting into his at-bats against righties if Vargas doesn't turn it around.



Again, solid numbers for the most part and Springs has pitched better in his last few starts after a very rough beginning to the season. You might notice Shane Baz's name absent here - the righty has not gotten his command back since returning from TJ surgery and has been horrible at Durham (an 8.31 ERA in 47 IP) and just went back on the IL DL with a tender elbow so I'm not counting on anything from him. And as mentioned earlier, Perkins has been lights-out since coming over from Oakland.

Down on the farm:



Our big international amateur signing of the January period was Gracia, so good that he's ranked #3 overall in baseball among prospects. He has 80 contact and 80 power potential but he's a long way away. Closer to the current day Bradley is already up with the big club and pitching well while blocked prospects Mead and Manzardo continue to rake. #7 & #10 are already up with us as well and #12, Saggese has not stopped hitting since we picked up from Texas before the season started for Vidal Brujan. So plenty of help to be used as depth or trade bait as we go forward.

Speaking of trade bait, we'll check in again at the end of July and see if we made any deals before the deadline.

[Art Deco]

Time to check back in on this one.

Record: 59-43
First place AL East, 3 1/2 up on the Yankees.



A lot has happened in two months with the Rays continuing to play pretty good baseball and staying atop the AL East. We've been injury-free, a rare thing in this day and age and we made some trades to beef up the squad.

The first one was the biggest:



At the all-star break we sent a package of prospects led by Mason Auer to the Cubs for Wheeler, one of the better starters in MLB. Pitching wasn't exactly a weakness but you can never be too rich or too thin or something like that, and Wheeler was doing his typical thing with Chicago in the final year of his contract: 7-5, 3.33, 2.8 WAR in 18 starts. He'll take Jeffrey Springs' spot in the rotation as the lefty was our one struggler among the starters this year with an ERA of around 5. It hurt a bit to give up Auer (the other two not so much) as the 2021 5th-round pick had blossomed into a fine OF with 75 speed, 70 corner OF defense and 50/55 potential at the plate, but we're deep in prospects. Wheeler struggled in his Rays debut at home against Miami (2.1 10 6 6 1 4) but bounced back to go 13 10 2 2 3 13 combined in his next two.

The next trade came about when I was doing some shopping of prospects and saw Detroit was making this young guy available:



Jung was a first-round pick of the Tigers in 2022, had a great season in AA in 2023 and made the club this year, hitting a respectable 274/343/419 as a rookie with 11 HR and 40 RBI. And his ratings are excellent:



Those are my scout's - OSA has his about 5 lower across the board for hitting. But still, a special bat and it only took a couple of mid-level prospects to make the deal. Right now with Yandy and Paredes manning the corners (and Miguel Vargas at DH) there's no room for Jung so he was sent to Durham where he homered in each of his first three games with the Bulls. We'll find a way to work him into the lineup next year, that's for sure.

Finally we made one last good-sized deal before the deadline:



I really think our Durham roster could win 65-70 games at the MLB level and one reason why was Mead, a top-75 prospect who's been stuck there for the better part of two seasons. And we also have Kyle Manzardo, another top-100 prospect who is ready for MLB but is blocked at 1B/DH like Mead. So it was time to deal from the glut for some immediate help so Mead was shipped to the Giants for their closer Camilo Doval, as I wasn't thrilled with our RH bullpen options after Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks. And we also acquired Bailey in the deal as we'll need a catcher next year with Francisco Mejia going free agent and Christian Bethancourt ready to command $7M+ in arbitration. Bailey rates 45/50 contact, 50/55 HR power, 60 eye and 55/60 defensively making him a well-rounded package at catcher. My AGM actually liked the deal until I threw in the 26-year-old Brecht, a journeyman pitcher who was needed to make the deal work.

We also made an interesting waiver claim, getting Cade Doughty off the Blue Jays:



Doughty was Toronto's 2nd round pick in 2022 and has the potential to be a starting infielder. He's currently injured and will make Durham even stronger when he returns.

Stat time:



Pretty decent all around - we did struggle in June as you can see but turned it around in July. The offense could be a little better and I'll get into that in a minute while the pitching has been solid. The defense is a bit weird since we're 2nd in ZR but middle of the pack in DE/BABIP.



Paredes has really carried the team, seemingly always coming up the big hit or homer at the right time. Wander has been good but he's suffered a major power drop-off from last year and I'm still hoping that returns for the stretch run. Arozarena has also been a disappointment. And the catchers, who were so good at the plate last year, have been pretty brutal. I'd have to DFA one of them to get Bailey up so we'll ride with the duo but you can see now why I made the deal to get him.



The starters have been solid, and you can see how Springs has struggled (and hasn't pitched that much better out of the pen). Yonny Chirinos was DFA'd to make room for Doval and was released after he cleared waivers and refused demotion to Durham.

The draft:



Paino is a high-school kid from New York state with 80/65/70 contact/power/eye potential but looks to be an average IF at best.

Nesta is a North Carolina prep pitcher with 70/55/50 potential.

Musci is another HS pitcher from Georgia with 65/45/65 potential, a little more of a finesse guy.

Murray is high-schooler from Georgia with 65/60/60 hitting potential and potential to be a 50 SS defensively.

Allen, an Alabaman high-schooler, has 65/60/60 hitting potential as well but is progged to be a lousy defensive 3B.



Carson Williams is having a big year at high-A ball and could be a big riser and Nesta is the one draftee OSA seems to like.

[Art Deco]

Final Regular Season Record: 92-70
1st place, AL East

The Rays didn't play great baseball over the season's final two months (33-27) but it was good enough in a poor AL East, which they won comfortably when no other team in the division finished above .500. And 92-70 was good enough for a bye through the wild card round as Minnesota won the Central with an 87-76 record (yes that's 163 games - I have no idea why a bunch of teams played an extra game).

We did lose a couple of starting pitchers to injury. Taj Bradley tore his rotator cuff and is done for 2025 as well while Drew Rasmussen suffered shoulder inflammation which sidelined him for most of the last two months. He should be good in a couple of days but he'll need a rehab assignment to Durham (which is in the playoffs) and won't be on the ALDS roster.

The final MLB standings and leaders:





Solid numbers all around and per Pythagoreas we should have had a better record. Pete Fairbanks blew a couple of saves in the final week which I blame in part. We'll be playing the winner of Twins-Rangers in the ALDS.



Jace Jung got the September roster expansion callup and raked, forcing his way into the lineup against RHP at 1B,2B,3B and DH as I gave the regulars there days off. I definitely want to get him in the lineup in the ALDS so it'll be interesting to see who sit. Probably Vargas at DH, who had a disappointing sophomore season. Speaking of disappointments, the catching had negative value and Randy Arozarena had a lousy year although he got hot over the final week. The two seasons I've played in this save have featured little turnover with most of these guys playing for the 2023 Rays IRL right now but big changes will be afoot this offseason.



The pitching acquisitions were solid with Doval dealing and Wheeler pitching very well despite some bad BABIP luck. Wheeler missed a couple of weeks in September with a tender elbow but came back to start the final game of the season with no apparent ill effect. With the injuries to the rotation Jeffrey Springs got his starter's job back and pitched much better the second time around (he'll be the 4th starter in the playoff rotation), and Shane Baz pitched well in a September callup despite being terribly homer-prone (4 in 21 IP in the bigs, 40 in 170 IP at Durham). Baz won't be on the ALDS roster though.



We have to find a place for Kyle Manzardo next year after he's put up two stellar seasons at AAA. It won't be easy as Yandy remains under contract at 1B and Vargas/Jung seem to have DH covered.

Next up will be full playoff coverage.

[Art Deco]

Detroit will face Seattle as they upset the 97-win Astros who had the league's second-best record.



And our opponents in the ALDS will be the Rangers, whom we lost to in this round in both 2010 and 2011 before getting a measure of revenge by beating them in 2013 in a one-game playoff for a wild card.



The Phillies will play St. Louis in an NLDS after their upset of the Mets.



And the Dodgers got payback against San Diego for 2022 as all four Wild Card series were disposed of in the minimum two games. LA will take on Atlanta in the other NLDS.

Some Rays news: Drew Rasmussen went on rehab to Durham and pitched Game 7 of their opening round playoff series against Omaha, but unfortunately injured himself again in the 3rd inning by straining his back and he'll miss another two weeks so any further contributions from his this season are unlikely. Lefty reliever Garrett Cleavinger also went on rehab and pitched in the game, looking rusty by allowing a couple of walks and a hit and essentially causing Durham to lose 5-4 and ending their season.

[Art Deco]

It was an exercise in frustration for the Rays as they had 15 baserunners could only bring two of them home in a tight, tough 3-2 loss to open the ALDS against the Rangers. And the game ended the way it went as Wander Franco singled with two out in the 9th, stole second, and went to third on the bad throw but was stranded there when Joey Gallo made a leaping grab of Brandon Lowe's line drive. They hit into a pair of double plays and had a man thrown out at the plate as well. Zack Wheeler will go tomorrow to try to keep them from going to Texas in an 0-2 hole.

Meanwhile the Tigers' upset run continues as they took their ALDS opener in Seattle:

[Art Deco]

Deja vu all over again...



For the second straight day the Rays lost a 3-2 decision to the Rangers and now they find themselves needing to win three straight to keep their season alive. While the scoreline was the same the game was a bit different as today the Rays weren't putting runners on to strand like they did yesterday. As he did in the 2020 World Series for the Dodgers Corey Seager killed the Rays again, singling in the first two runs and then scoring the key third run in the 9th after singling, stealing second and going to third on Francisco Mejia's throwing error. Seager also had the big 2-run double in Game 1. Zach Eflin now will pitch what is hopefully the first of three do-or-die games for Tampa Bay in a couple of days.

Elsewhere in DS action:

[Art Deco]

Well that was disappointing...



Well it turned out that all three games in this series were basically the same: the Rays lost by a run and Corey Seager killed them in the process. Today was the latest and it started off very poorly when Zach Eflin gave up three straight two-out hits in the 1st to plate three Texas runs. The bats valiantly came back against Jacob deGrom to tie it up in the 4th but Eflin immediately surrendered a homer in the bottom of the inning to put the Rangers back on top and Seager homered off Shane Baz in the 6th as one of his five hits on the day, which turned out to be the winner after Isaac Paredes' pinch-homer in the 9th. Baz was only on the playoff roster after Ryan Pepiot went on the IL after leaving Game 2 with forearm stiffness.

So now it's time to embark on an interesting offseason which will likely see some significant change on a team that stayed fairly intact over the last two seasons and won 195 games as we have a lot of guys at AAA who are ready for the bigs.

In the other ALDS:



And in yesterday's NLDS action:



Since the Rays are now eliminated, the next post will be a recap of the other 3 division series and then single posts for the LCS and World Series.

[Art Deco]

Here's how the rest of the DSes went:



A Tigers-Rangers ALCS was what we were all expecting, right?





Matt Olson was the series MVP. Things went much more chalk in the NL where the top two clubs will play for the pennant.

[Art Deco]

Just as we all expected it - the 83-80* Tigers are in the World Series. Javy Baez, whose contract signed prior to 2022 has largely been a bust, made the whole thing worth it by hitting a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 9th of Game 6 to walk it off, his 3rd longball of the series. Their opponents?




The Cardinals may have lost the series but the legend of Shohei Ohtani grew even larger after he did this:



Yes despite the recap in the box not using the phrase Ohtani threw a 99-pitch no-hitter to keep the Cards alive for a couple of more days.

Atlanta will be heavily favored over Detroit to take the title, but ask the Astros and Rangers about that.

*Still baffled as to why most teams played 163 games this year - the Rays didn't however.

[Art Deco]

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2024 World Champion Detroit Tigers. Winners of only 83 games in the regular season, the Tigers are officially the team with the worst regular season record to be crowned champs. The 2006 Cardinals won 83 games as well, but they only lost 78 while these Tigers dropped 80. But the postseason version bore little resemblance to its regular season counterpart as they went 13-3 in the playoffs, culminating in a shocking 4-game sweep of 100-win Atlanta and proving once again that all that matters in the postseason is getting in.

While the Series was going on a farmhand of ours got some recognition:



Criswell was up for a couple of starts in September when Zach Wheeler was on the IL and was 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA but with a 3/13 BB/K ratio in 15 innings. He's a darkhorse candidate for the 5th starter's job next season.

[Art Deco]

Before we get into the State of the Team, there were several notable retirements around baseball, including longtime Rays star Evan Longoria. We took note of that and retired his #3:



Also hanging up the cleats were former Rays Nelson Cruz, Joey Wendle, Travis d'Arnaud and Tommy Pham, Cardinals pitching stalwart Adam Wainwright and longtime Red Sox star DH J.D. Martinez. Also former Dodgers 3B Justin Turner turned over a new leaf.

In our first order of offseason business we declined the $12M team option for Manuel Margot. Manny served us well the last few years but that's way too much to pay for a 4th outfielder, however good with the glove he may be.

The following players are free agents: Zach Wheeler, Jalen Beeks, Francisco Mejia, Shawn Armstrong and of course Margot.

We always knew Wheeler was a rental and of the remaining four the only one we'll miss is Beeks, who was a weapon out of the pen the last two seasons. This leaves the following salaries for 2025 and if we were to keep all of them the projected payroll would be $133M:



Among the relievers at the bottom, we'll likely keep one of Cleavinger or Poche (most likely Cleavinger) and non-tender the rest, as well as Walls who just can't hit (unfortunately his real-life 2023 emergence at the plate came too late to be captured in this save), so there's about $6M in savings. Owner Stu Sternberg has given me a $150M payroll, so if we do nothing else but non-tender those relievers and Walls, we'd have about $23M to play with. But more we will do as here's how things look position-by-position:

C: Patrick Bailey is ready for the bigs and he would team with Bethancourt. Of course the question is do I want to keep Bethancourt at $5.5M, especially since he put up negative WAR last year? Perhaps not and perhaps we can save more money here.

1B: Yandy Diaz had another good season, albeit not as good as 23 or 24. Jace Jung needs to play somewhere, either 1B, 3B or DH, and we also have top 60 prospect Kyle Manzardo who was been stuck at Durham for two seasons with big numbers. Consequently Yandy is a trade candidate.

2B: Brandon Lowe has 63 homers the last two years and about 6 WAR in that time, so no need to overthink this one.

SS: Ditto with Wander.

3B: Isaac Paredes had 36 HR and 103 RBI for us and 3.9 WAR, and is only slated to make $5.5M in arbitration so the first thought here is to leave well enough alone. Still he could go if I wanted to make room for Jung and he should fetch a ton in trade but I don't want to galaxy-brain this.

IF: With Walls non-tendered I'm looking at Cade Doughty as the utility infielder. The waiver claim from Toronto hit 37 HR in 3 minor league stops last year and can play all 4 IF positions and the OF corners. He would probably be a .260, 25-HR guy if he played every day.

LF: Randy Arozarena kind of cratered last year despite another 20-HR, 30-SB season. He dropped to .232 and from 4.5 WAR to 0.7. He's one of the faces of the franchise but he'll be 30 when the season starts and his once-stellar defense also cratered to a -1.7 ZR in LF. Also he's going to make at least $10.5M in arbitration. Trade him while still has value or hope for a bounceback? That will be one of the winter's biggest questions.

CF: Jose Siri has settled in as an elite defensive CF who hits enough to keep the position, earning 2.6 WAR. He should only cost $2.8M in arbitration so his job is secure, especially with Margot out the door.

RF: Josh Lowe platooned with Margot last year and he might platoon with Doughty next season. He did take a step forward with 2.5 WAR last year and will make the minimum again.

DH: Miguel Vargas wasn't quite as dynamic as he was in 2023, but was still a solid .270-23-91 and will return. Jung and/or Manzardo may cut into some of his DH bats against righties.

OF: Austin Wells is our 4th OF now with Margot gone and while he didn't hit a lot in limited action his ratings are still great and we still like him.

So position player-wise, Bailey replaces Mejia, Doughty replaces Walls and Jung replaces Margot. This still leaves no roster opening at the moment for Manzardo since we're going with 13 hitters.

Starting rotation: McClanahan, Eflin, Springs, and Rasmussen all return but 5th starter Taj Bradley is out for the year. Replacement candidates are Shane Baz, Cooper Criswell and perhaps Ryan Pepiot or Jack Perkins from the bullpen.

Bullpen: The back end of the pen is back with Fairbanks, Adam and Doval. Jovani Moran is our key lefty now with Beeks gone and Cleavinger should be a second lefty. The other three spots will go to some combination of Pepiot, Perkins, Hayden Juenger and Trevor Brigden. Other options include lefties Jacob Lopez and Brendan McKay (remember him?) and we may need to find a spot for righty rookie Matthew Peguero who has been upgraded to 75 stuff with 50 movement and 45 control.

Others: We have two more first basemen who could play in the bigs in Michael Busch and Jonathan Aranda and Oselvis Basabe is capable of being a big-league utility IF. Should I decide to move Bethancourt and don't replace him with a more proven backup, Blake Hunt has an MLB glove (70) behind the plate even if the bat is lousy.

So the goals for the off-season are:

* Trade one or two out of Bethancourt, Arozarena, Yandy Diaz and Paredes
* Possibly acquire an impact OF especially if Arozarena is dealt.
* Possibly acquire a pretty good lefty reliever to replace Beeks