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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 11-06-2019, 03:04 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Watts View Post
Mark Texiera
Ruben Sierra
Mike Scott
Sergio Romo
Jeremy Bonderman.

I said 5th, but it was 6th
In case you're curious, here's the outcome of the first six with my system:

Ted Williams 422.88
Mark Teixeira 140.52
Mike Scott 63.94
Sergio Romo 28.80
Jeremy Bonderman 8.68
Ruben Sierra 7.48

Not really close is it?
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-07-2019, 01:17 AM   #22
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Draft values:

Babe Ruth 1685
Glendon Rusch 1579
Bob Rush 2292
Amos Rusie 2861
Allen Russell 1570
Jack Russell 1964
Jeff Russell 2085
Dick Ruthven 2318

Ted Williams 1060
Ken Williams 1816
Lefty Williams 1212
Matt D Williams 2291
Mitch Williams 1216
Mike Williams 1376
Ned Williamson 1622
Stan Williams 1952
Vic Willis 3308
Woody Williams 2498

Barry Bonds 1703
Brian Bohanon 1388
Bernie Boland 1030
Bobby Bolin 2017
Jeremy Bonderman 1307
Bobby Bonds 3082
Tommy Bond 2700
Ricky Bones 1271
Bill Bonham 1649
Tiny Bonham 1785
Bobby Bonilla 3583

I don't believe it, but there it is in black and white.
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017

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Old 11-07-2019, 07:13 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Watts View Post
Oh Oh Action, I don't think it will take you long to spot the issue.Attachment 657190
Curious...How is it that you have 18 picks in the first round in a 16 team league? Just curious. Anyhoo...Here's three posts on how the players visible to me in your draft should've gone. First by the default Master.csv file with pre-defined draft value...

1-1 Teixeira 3931
1-2 Sierra 3121
1-3 Scott 2142
1-4 Romo 1315
1-5 Bonderman 1307
1-6 Williams 1060
1-7 Familia 1022
1-8 Petit 939
1-9 Mabry 780
1-10 Hale 745
1-11 Zuverink 733
1-12 Bettis 684
1-13 Manning 640
1-14 Torrealba 565
1-15 Kingman 551
1-16 Gonzalez 548
1-17 Shellenback 482
1-18 Dukes 457
2-1 Bouchee 452
2-2 Taylor 445
2-3 Hermida 430
2-4 Rosenthal 349
2-5 Dewey 348
2-6 Duckworth 335
2-7 Dietz 330
2-8 Putnam 316
2-9 Devens 263
2-10 Barfoot 245

You'll notice Odell Hale jumped up two spots, knocking Zuverink and Bettis back one. That's really not a good sign because it means the feature isn't getting the draft values right. Due to the same issue, Hermida and Rosenthal jumped two spots. Dewey was knocked back two spots, along with Duckworth.
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017

Last edited by actionjackson; 11-07-2019 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 11-07-2019, 07:39 PM   #24
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Here's how the Spritze master.csv draft values see the same draft. I do not recommend using Spritze for your historical MLB games as it's a completely different animal. In parentheses are how the draft went using the Default Master.csv draft values...

1-1 Williams 3307 (1-6)
1-2 Barfoot 2971 (2-10)
1-3 Sierra 1625 (1-2)
1-4 Scott 1540 (1-3)
1-5 Teixeira 1301 (1-1)
1-6 Zuverink 1263 (1-11)
1-7 Shellenback 1201 (1-17)
1-8 Taylor 1157 (2-2)
1-9 Dietz 1077 (2-7)
1-10 Rosenthal 987 (2-4)
1-11 Hale 985 (1-10)
1-12 Mabry 966 (1-9)
1-13 Manning 910 (1-13)
1-14 Torrealba 900 (1-14)
1-15 Gonzalez 865 (1-16)
1-16 Hermida 842 (2-3)
1-17 Bonderman 783 (1-5)
1-18 Bouchee 774 (2-1)
2-1 Petit 768 (1-8)
2-2 Dukes 711 (1-18)
2-3 Kingman 640 (1-15)
2-4 Duckworth 565 (2-6)
2-5 Familia 449 (1-7)
2-6 Dewey 387 (2-5)
2-7 Romo 360 (1-4)
2-8 Bettis 337 (1-12)
2-9 Putnam 244 (2-8)
2-10 Devens 228 (2-9)

The only two players in the same draft position are Rick Manning and Yorvit Torrealba. Ted Williams has taken over his rightful place. Barfoot has had a dramatic shift, and others have shifted, just not as much as him. Again, I only recommend Spritze for bringing in non-MLBers.
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-07-2019, 08:46 PM   #25
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And now my system, with the other draft pick placements in parentheses (Default, Spritze). You'll notice a slight change from the ones posted earlier. That's because both hitting and pitching have been included for all players. Sometimes, there was a slight difference in one aspect of a player's WAR or WAA...

1-1 Williams RF 423.08 (1-6, 1-1)
1-2 Teixeira 1B 140.42 (1-1, 1-5)
1-3 Scott SP 59.70 (1-3, 1-4)
1-4 Taylor RF 34.40 (2-2, 1-8)
1-5 Hale 3B 33.82 (1-10, 1-11)
1-6 Romo RP 28.22 (1-4, 2-7)
1-7 Familia RP 20.00 (1-7, 2-5)
1-8 Bouchee 1B 13.50 (2-1, 1-18)
1-9 Zuverink RP 10.74 (1-11, 1-6)
1-10 Bonderman SP 7.54 (1-5, 1-17)
1-11 Sierra 7.48 RF (1-2, 1-3)
1-12 Rosenthal 6.70 CF (2-4, 1-10)
1-13 Putnam 6.56 RP (2-8, 2-9)
1-14 Torrealba 6.44 C (1-14, 1-14)
1-15 Petit 6.36 RP (1-8, 2-1)
1-16 Dewey 5.60 RP (2-5, 2-6)
1-17 Bettis 5.22 SP (1-12, 2-8)
1-18 Manning 5.16 CF (1-13, 1-13)
2-1 Dietz 2.44 SP (2-7, 1-9)
2-2 Kingman 2.18 SP (1-15, 2-3)
2-3 Devens 1.10 RP (2-9, 2-10)
2-4 Barfoot 0.92 RP (2-10, 1-2)
2-5 Hermida -3.14 RF (2-3, 1-16)
2-6 Shellenback -5.62 RP (1-17, 1-7)
2-7 Dukes -5.86 RP (1-18, 2-2)
2-8 Gonzalez -9.3 SP (1-16, 1-15)
2-9 Duckworth -16.00 SP (2-6, 2-4)
2-10 Mabry -27.14 1B (1-9, 1-12)

Anybody with a negative number is gonna drop like a stone to the bottom of any draft they're in. They tend to be players who got a lot of playing time in MLB, and were not good relative to their fellow major leaguers. Generally, a player closer to zero, is going to be a player who didn't get much playing time, and is therefore going to be largely dependent on the player development system, because his recalc time will come to an end very quickly. This system is not good at all for straight up replays, especially ones that don't use player development because the guys that didn't play much IRL will cram the middle of every draft they're in.

This would've been a completely different looking draft, if I knew all the players in it, but this is where the 28 players I can see would place with my system. The 1st round looks pretty decent, aside from the fact there are six RP in it. 1) Relievers are baseball players that can impact a game/season too, and 2) No matter how much you want to, you'll never find the "perfect system" for creating the proper draft order. It just doesn't exist.
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:07 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson View Post
Curious...How is it that you have 18 picks in the first round in a 16 team league? Just curious. Anyhoo...Here's three posts on how the players visible to me in your draft should've gone. First by the default Master.csv file with pre-defined draft value...

1-1 Teixeira 3931
1-2 Sierra 3121
1-3 Scott 2142
1-4 Romo 1315
1-5 Bonderman 1307
1-6 Williams 1060
1-7 Familia 1022
1-8 Petit 939
1-9 Mabry 780
1-10 Hale 745
1-11 Zuverink 733
1-12 Bettis 684
1-13 Manning 640
1-14 Torrealba 565
1-15 Kingman 551
1-16 Gonzalez 548
1-17 Shellenback 482
1-18 Dukes 457
2-1 Bouchee 452
2-2 Taylor 445
2-3 Hermida 430
2-4 Rosenthal 349
2-5 Dewey 348
2-6 Duckworth 335
2-7 Dietz 330
2-8 Putnam 316
2-9 Devens 263
2-10 Barfoot 245

You'll notice Odell Hale jumped up two spots, knocking Zuverink and Bettis back one. That's really not a good sign because it means the feature isn't getting the draft values right. Due to the same issue, Hermida and Rosenthal jumped two spots. Dewey was knocked back two spots, along with Duckworth.
I think it had something to do with me forgetting to turn off the draft pick signing deal. Both Bonderman and Scott were in the draft the previous year, but didn't sign and went to college.
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:17 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by David Watts View Post
I think it had something to do with me forgetting to turn off the draft pick signing deal. Both Bonderman and Scott were in the draft the previous year, but didn't sign and went to college.
Ah...That could be. All the other rounds were 16 picks then?
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:35 PM   #28
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Ah...That could be. All the other rounds were 16 picks then?
What do you think of the order of my method? Makes sense or no?
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:16 AM   #29
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What do you think of the order of my method? Makes sense or no?
I like it and hopefully we will see the game move in that direction in the near future.
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Old 11-08-2019, 09:33 AM   #30
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Well, we have some new blood atop the AL and NL as we work our way through the month of May. The New York Highlanders continue to hold down the top spot in the AL. John Smoltz is 4-0 and Johnny Mize is rolling with a .370 batting average and 10 home runs. The White Sox, Tigers and Browns, don't look like they will let the Yankees run away with things though.

In the NL the Philadelphia Phillies led by leadoff man Ichiro Suzuki sit atop the standings. But, the Boston Beaneaters are nipping at their heels. The Beaneater's Mike Trout looks like he's bound and determined to repeat as league MVP. Trout is hitting .368 so far. The New York Giants are in 3rd place, followed by the St. Louis Cardinals.

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Old 11-11-2019, 09:33 AM   #31
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As we approach the end of August, the Chicago White Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies sit atop the AL and NL.

In the AL, the St Louis Browns and the New York Higlanders trail the Sox by roughly 5 games. The Yankees went ice cold at the end of July and looked like they were going to lose their way into the lower half of the division. They've since righted the ship, caught the Browns and if the White Sox don't watch out, they Highlanders might soon catch them.

In the NL the Phillies have been in control for some time now. At one point the Phillies held a 11 game lead over the second place Boston Beaneaters. As we approach the end of August, the Beaneaters have fallen out of second place, replaced by the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates led by last years batting champ Honus Wagner have pulled to within 5 games of the Phillies. Meanwhile the New York Giants are now tied for third with the Beaneaters, thanks to a 11 game winning streak that's still active.

1903 is going to be a strange season in the end. Doesn't look like we will have a 20 game winner. Not sure if anyone is going to reach 100 rbi. I also have my doubts whether we will have a hitter reach 30 home runs. Sal Bando is sitting at 25 with roughly 34 or 35 games remaining.

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Old 11-11-2019, 12:04 PM   #32
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I was rather surprised when July 31 came and went without the New York Giants dealing away Derek Jeter. Jeter's awful defensive rating of 36 has him serving as a backup to Jonathon Villar and he's not faring well in that role. He's hovered around the .200 mark for the season and he's not getting many opportunities to right the ship. I kind of wish Milwaukee/St Louis would have held onto Derek, as in the AL he could at least serve as a designated hitter. I'm anxious to see what happens this off season.


As mentioned above the Chicago White Sox sit atop the AL. One player for the White Sox that I can't quite figure out is Joe DiMaggio. DiMaggio got off to a really nice start in 1903 and I figured it was going to be a breakout season. Instead, Joe returned to what can only be called "blah" He isn't awful, but he's not anything special either. In fact, his brother Dom has outshined him so far. Dom is batting leadoff for the New York Highlanders. He's hovered right around the .300 mark for the entire 1903 season.

Then there's Ted Williams. Williams is a rookie playing for the Chicago Cubs. He's hitting 3rd in the lineup. His average is up to .250 for the season and he's showing flashes of power, but he's not what you would call splendid yet.
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Old 11-11-2019, 12:05 PM   #33
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Pre defined or not predefined draft? Why not use both?
I have tried the following only once but it seemed to accomplish what I wanted it to and will try it again for my next draft.
Use Pre defined first round, and maybe second round. Then turn it off for the following rounds.
That way teams will select best available for their first round but then for the later rounds, when utility players/part time players are selected, they will focus more on team needs.
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Old 11-11-2019, 02:08 PM   #34
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Quote:
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Pre defined or not predefined draft? Why not use both?
I have tried the following only once but it seemed to accomplish what I wanted it to and will try it again for my next draft.
Use Pre defined first round, and maybe second round. Then turn it off for the following rounds.
That way teams will select best available for their first round but then for the later rounds, when utility players/part time players are selected, they will focus more on team needs.
Regardless of what anyone on here says, pre-defined is currently flat broke busted. When Ted Williams gets taken sixth overall in a relatively small draft, well...Need I say more? I'll turn that feature off for the Inaugural Draft, and use my own dispersal method for the amateur drafts thank you very much.
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Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-11-2019, 02:14 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reed View Post
Pre defined or not predefined draft? Why not use both?
I have tried the following only once but it seemed to accomplish what I wanted it to and will try it again for my next draft.
Use Pre defined first round, and maybe second round. Then turn it off for the following rounds.
That way teams will select best available for their first round but then for the later rounds, when utility players/part time players are selected, they will focus more on team needs.
Also...

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o85xI...LR4I/giphy.gif
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-11-2019, 02:26 PM   #36
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Oh I agree that predefined is somewhat off, and that is the only league I use the development engine at all.
Last night had a draft with the following results
1. Rick Wise
2. Yogi Berra
3. Larry French
4. Rich Honeycutt
5. George Sisler

No way Honeycutt should be above Sisler IMO.
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Old 11-14-2019, 10:41 AM   #37
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The Phillies 1903 magic number is down to 1 game. Have to give credit to the Pirates though, as they refused to give up the fight. The state of Pennsylvania should be proud.

In the AL the White Sox have a 3 game lead over 3 teams, the Browns, the Higlanders and the Americans. The Americans struggled for most of the season but a hot August and September allowed them to move towards the top of the division. Two time MVP Mickey Mantle played a huge role in the American's improvement. Mantle rode a 28 game hitting streak to the top of the AL batting crown race. I have a feeling he is in line to win a 3rd MVP.

In the NL, I'm guessing Mike Trout will take home his second MVP. Trout is a hitting right around .300 with 21 home runs, 75 RBI and 27 stolen bases. I think WAR will crown him MVP. Honus Wagner is once again in line to win the batting crown and If I had a vote, I just might give the MVP nod to Wagner. He's hit for power in 1903 and his average is 25+ points higher than Trout.

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Old 11-14-2019, 10:55 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reed View Post
Oh I agree that predefined is somewhat off, and that is the only league I use the development engine at all.
Last night had a draft with the following results
1. Rick Wise
2. Yogi Berra
3. Larry French
4. Rich Honeycutt
5. George Sisler

No way Honeycutt should be above Sisler IMO.
My quick and dirty re-ranking of this draft order:

1. Yogi Berra
2. George Sisler
3. Larry French
4. Rick Wise
5. Rick Honeycutt

They all had very good careers, but that first draft order is a gigantic WTF?
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"Tests have shown that suspicious or hostile
Their lives need not be shortened
Truth be told, they can live a long, long while
Tickled to death by their importance...

He said, you made me scared too, I wasn't sure I was getting through
I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 11-15-2019, 10:25 AM   #39
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The 1903 season refuses to go out with a whimper. The NL has already been decided, as the Phillies clinched. The AL is going down to the very last game and it just might need overtime. With two games remaining, the White Sox hold a 1 game lead over the New York Higlanders and a 2 game lead over the Boston Americans. The Americans just beat the St. Louis Browns to end the Browns chances of post season play. Can't wait to get home and see how things finish up.
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Old 11-15-2019, 01:58 PM   #40
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Dave,
Would you mind posting the Pirates roster in your game?

Thank you.
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