Draft Analysis - Fictional Players Long Term

MikeMontrealer · 03-06-2019, 10:14 AM

My sim just completed the 2038-39 season so I have a good dataset of drafts and their results. I decided to look at the drafts from 2023 to 2032 and see how many players reached 100GP, because Scott Cullen did the work of analyzing the 1990-2014 drafts last year to gather the same information (see here: https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spe...lues-1.1119528 ).

Here's some notes before I post the results:

-The league expanded to 32 teams in 2021-22, so total draft picks went to 224.
-The league expanded to 34 teams in 2023-34, making the # of picks 238.
-The final expansion to 36 was in 2027-28, getting us to 252 picks.
-I chose to gather results up to 2032 because especially in the lower rounds it can take 10+ years to see a player get to 100 GP.
-The player ranges are the same as Cullen's to ensure we can compare apples to apples.

And here's the results:

-First round picks make the NHL far more than they do in reality. Even the misses are often just stuck in the KHL long-term.
-Lower round picks don't make the NHL as much as they do in reality. And those that do are far more likely to be 13th forwards/7th d-men who eventually creep over the 100 GP mark after many seasons.

I'm not sure there's a good answer to this as I am impressed overall by how well the sim creates players and uses them. It might be fun to have sliders/ability to impact variability of player career outcomes but that might just make it more random instead of how weighted it is currently. In any case, I thought it was an interesting sample to look at:

03-06-2019, 10:14 AM	#1
MikeMontrealer Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 40	Draft Analysis - Fictional Players Long Term My sim just completed the 2038-39 season so I have a good dataset of drafts and their results. I decided to look at the drafts from 2023 to 2032 and see how many players reached 100GP, because Scott Cullen did the work of analyzing the 1990-2014 drafts last year to gather the same information (see here: https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spe...lues-1.1119528 ). Here's some notes before I post the results: -The league expanded to 32 teams in 2021-22, so total draft picks went to 224. -The league expanded to 34 teams in 2023-34, making the # of picks 238. -The final expansion to 36 was in 2027-28, getting us to 252 picks. -I chose to gather results up to 2032 because especially in the lower rounds it can take 10+ years to see a player get to 100 GP. -The player ranges are the same as Cullen's to ensure we can compare apples to apples. And here's the results: -First round picks make the NHL far more than they do in reality. Even the misses are often just stuck in the KHL long-term. -Lower round picks don't make the NHL as much as they do in reality. And those that do are far more likely to be 13th forwards/7th d-men who eventually creep over the 100 GP mark after many seasons. I'm not sure there's a good answer to this as I am impressed overall by how well the sim creates players and uses them. It might be fun to have sliders/ability to impact variability of player career outcomes but that might just make it more random instead of how weighted it is currently. In any case, I thought it was an interesting sample to look at: Last edited by MikeMontrealer; 03-06-2019 at 10:16 AM.