Fictional League - Minor League Stats/Modifiers

[jhart05]

24-Team with 4 levels of minors + feeder leagues.

I cannot seem to get acceptable stats from my Minor Leagues.

Mostly I first look at league ERA, if that isn't at a reasonable level, then I start over.

I've seen things like league ERA's in the 7's and 8's. A Rookie level player hitting 95 HRs in a season.

I've searched and read thru about a dozen other threads on here, can't seem to find the one I need.

I've tried using the default then clicking the auto calc.

I'm using 1973 stats totals for my Majors with very good results. So I tried using the same for my minors, then hitting autocalc, but doesn't come out well.

It took me many, many tries to get my financials the way I want them. Finally got that down. Now I'm noticing this issue with my Minor league stats. I'm just having a hell of a time here.

Does anyone have some time tested modifiers for my setup?

Let me know if there is any other information you may need from my setup.

Thanks.

[Bluenoser]

Not sure if this will help, but have you tried using this option in league setup:
_

[Bluenoser]

This is what the manual states:

There is also a checkbox entitled Automatically control in-game engine to match league totals (only recommended for minors). This option automatically modifies the in-game engine in a way that the stats output closely matches the entered league totals. This works fairly well, but is not a perfect statistical rendition, particularly at the lowest minor league level. It's a decent option for players who are extremely concerned about league totals looking "realistic" in the minors.

Here's a link to the manual covering the subject:

Out of the Park Baseball Manual

[RchW]

Originally Posted by jhart05

24-Team with 4 levels of minors + feeder leagues.

I cannot seem to get acceptable stats from my Minor Leagues.

Mostly I first look at league ERA, if that isn't at a reasonable level, then I start over.

I've seen things like league ERA's in the 7's and 8's. A Rookie level player hitting 95 HRs in a season.

I've searched and read thru about a dozen other threads on here, can't seem to find the one I need.

I've tried using the default then clicking the auto calc.

I'm using 1973 stats totals for my Majors with very good results. So I tried using the same for my minors, then hitting autocalc, but doesn't come out well.

It took me many, many tries to get my financials the way I want them. Finally got that down. Now I'm noticing this issue with my Minor league stats. I'm just having a hell of a time here.

Does anyone have some time tested modifiers for my setup?

Let me know if there is any other information you may need from my setup.

Thanks.

Go to baseball reference and get real minor league totals then modify them using autocalc. Where a minor league total does not exist I make it 10% higher or 10% lower by coin toss.

I have pretty realistic minor league stats for decades in 2-3 leagues. See the SS below where I use 2009 RL totals with some edits. Also see my variation tracker that shows how realistic my results are vs RL totals. Note that the LDP variation in the PC was due to me entering a modifier incorrectly.

[jhart05]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

This is what the manual states:



Here's a link to the manual covering the subject:

Out of the Park Baseball Manual

Thanks, but yes, I've tried those things and read the manual. I've spend many hours of research on my own to try and figure out the problem. Posting here is my last resort.

I've had it with trying to figure out the build in totals and modifiers calc.

What I'm going to try now is to input my own stats for each level of minors. I've taken the actual minor league totals for 1970 thru 1989, entered some formulas to calculate league totals based upon my number of teams and games per league. Which I believe will essentially eliminate the need for modifiers all together as I've pretty much already factored that part into my calculation. So those modifiers will all be "1.000". I'll plug these into the game and see how they work out.

[jhart05]

Originally Posted by RchW

Go to baseball reference and get real minor league totals then modify them using autocalc.

Yep, going to this now.

I don't understand why simply putting in 1973, then hitting auto-calc modifiers, doesn't seem to work for me. Makes no sense.

I've tried pretty much every option there is. Checking the boxes, not checking the boxes, checking some/not checking others, not checking some/checking others, etc ...

[RchW]

Originally Posted by jhart05

Thanks, but yes, I've tried those things and read the manual. I've spend many hours of research on my own to try and figure out the problem. Posting here is my last resort.

I've had it with trying to figure out the build in totals and modifiers calc.

What I'm going to try now is to input my own stats for each level of minors. I've taken the actual minor league totals for 1970 thru 1989, entered some formulas to calculate league totals based upon my number of teams and games per league. Which I believe will essentially eliminate the need for modifiers all together as I've pretty much already factored that part into my calculation. So those modifiers will all be "1.000". I'll plug these into the game and see how they work out.

OK bear with me and I'll try to explain. Apologies in advance if I'm restating what is obvious to you. It's the only way I can say it and make sense to myself.

Modifiers are needed in addition to league totals because the talent distribution of a fictional league may not match that of the real life league that produced the output. The raw league totals establish the occurrence rate of each stat per AB. That is critical for non-counting or occurrence based stats like DP PB SBA BK etc. Autocalc modifiers adjust the output to account for variation in player ratings at the time autocalc is run.

Autocalc runs a 3-season simulation where the simulated totals are compared with the raw totals on the left. It may be more complicated internally but If HR are found to be 20% high the existing modifier for HR will be multiplied by 0.8. If strikeouts are 8% low the the existing modifier for K will be multiplied by 1.080. Note I said existing modifier since one can never assume a starting modifier of 1.000 except for the first time you do it. Each succeeding autocalc adjusts the existing modifier. I try never to use autocalc more than once before a season starts.

My suggestion is that you calculate revised league totals vs AB instead of teams or games. Your choice of course; for me it keeps things simple. If you have data for a 77000 AB league and yours is 66000 AB all totals from the 77000 AB league would be multiplied by 0.8571428 or however many sig digits you want. Enter the revised totals set all modifiers to 1 then run autocalc. It's important to realize that even after doing this variations of ±0.20 can occur each season especially in the minor leagues due to the development engine and player movement. That is where the automatic control of the game engine check box may help at the lowest levels only IMO. It's not useful at AA or AAA. Following this process for several seasons tends to stabilize counting stats well. Occurrence based stats are less stable because the game engine (my guess) cannot replicate base/out states exactly like real life.

Hope this makes sense.

Originally Posted by jhart05

Yep, going to this now.

I don't understand why simply putting in 1973, then hitting auto-calc modifiers, doesn't seem to work for me. Makes no sense.

I've tried pretty much every option there is. Checking the boxes, not checking the boxes, checking some/not checking others, not checking some/checking others, etc ...

Clicking 1973 etc doesn't work because the totals are from MLB history. The occurrence rate ie stat X/AB is not the same for many stats. The minor leagues often have different rates of PB Errors DP Balks and HR due to radically different conditions and dynamic player development. The PCL is legendary for killing pitchers so much so that teams avoid putting good prospects there. Altitude, heat, dry air and rock hard infields all contribute to a hitting dominant stat output. Teams generally keep good young pitchers in AA on the east coast if possible.

Correct minor league totals correct occurrence rates to some degree. The output remains volatile due to the dynamic nature of OOTP's player development engine. It's not 100% but it helps to move things in the right direction.

Sorry to be so long winded.

[jhart05]

"My suggestion is that you calculate revised league totals vs AB instead of teams or games. Your choice of course; for me it keeps things simple. If you have data for a 77000 AB league and yours is 66000 AB all totals from the 77000 AB league would be multiplied by 0.8571428 or however many sig digits you want. Enter the revised totals set all modifiers to 1 then run autocalc."

I'm not sure I see the difference between putting in the raw data I have, then clicking autocalc, or putting the formulas into my spreadsheet to calculate approximate league totals for each league and making the modifiers all be 1. But I'll try both and see what happens.

Plus I'm at the frustration point with the modifiers that I don't trust them to work at all.

One thing I have now found is errors are way off in my Rookie League. They are lower than the ML level. Obviously this is causing my ERA to be high, in addition to the 8,000+ extra runs that are being scored.

[jhart05]

Well I have my plan for the hitting related stats.

Now I'm looking at the fielding. Total errors are off by at least 1,000 in each minor league. In the Rookie league it's almost 3,000 off and close to 20 points in fielding percentage. Modifiers for OFers is very low .145-ish. I'm wondering if this is because I am using a 144 game Rookie League schedule. Maybe I need to double these modifiers to compensate? But why wouldn't the game engine recognize this and adjust accordingly?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by jhart05

Well I have my plan for the hitting related stats.

Now I'm looking at the fielding. Total errors are off by at least 1,000 in each minor league. In the Rookie league it's almost 3,000 off and close to 20 points in fielding percentage. Modifiers for OFers is very low .145-ish. I'm wondering if this is because I am using a 144 game Rookie League schedule. Maybe I need to double these modifiers to compensate? But why wouldn't the game engine recognize this and adjust accordingly?

Yeah errors are problematic because there is no league total for just errors. Adjusting 9 modifiers is a real pain. I'm going to make some further enquiries in the beta forums.

[jhart05]

Okay, so first couple passes with inputing my calculated league totals for the minors and leaving the modifiers at 1 seem to be working well.

The next thing I did was to significantly raise the error modifier. Originally my rookie level was about 3k short of a 70's league error total. After raising them to almost 2.0 (like I mentioned before the OF positions were sitting around .145 for some reason), I am now seeing better error and fielding percentage. As expected these fixes have also lowered my league ERA's to more reasonable levels. Still not quite to the upper 3's, but at least they are under 5 now.

[jhart05]

Well after 9 test runs, running 6 seasons each time. I believe I finally have some minor league modifiers I can be comfortable with. 6 seasons may be a small sample size for some, but it was good enough for me.

I did notice early on my fictional league was getting more PA than an actual season, so I quickly started using H/9, 2B/9, etc... for each stat, and per IP where that option was logical, instead of looking at just the standard totals and BA/OBP/SLG/ERA.

The only modifier I find unusual is the hits modifier for my Rookie League. I had to knock it all the way down to .050 in order to get my league batting average down to a reasonable number. It's still 17 points higher than my target and 20 points higher than 2013 Rookie leagues, but it's good enough and the ratio of EBH is the range of my target. Anyone have a guess why this might be? Have you ever seen a hits modifier be that low?

Could it be the talent level ratio of batters to pitchers in my Rookie league is that much in favor of the batters? Meaning the hits modifier has to be that low to compensate for the terrible pitching currently in that league. Or am I not fully understanding how the modifiers work.

For the Major League level I found a thread that suggested after year one, you let the game auto-recalc the modifiers, then lock them in for the duration. I've done that with great results. My Major League level is producing reasonable stats.

In conclusion, for my minor leagues, I'm going with my manual modifiers, and not checking either of the boxes. For the majors I am using the game's calculated modifiers for year one, recalc in year two, then lock them in. Again, not checking either box.