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Old 11-04-2013, 09:18 PM   #21
chucksabr
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I want to make it clear that I am not asking for random spikes that are 4-5 times average attendance. That would be a little silly.

But Opening Day, and end of season when the team is in a close race for the pennant? That did happen in real life, so to my way of thinking, there's no reason why it shouldn't happen in this game.
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Old 11-04-2013, 09:29 PM   #22
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Even on Opening Day? Because as I've demonstrated with real data from that relative era, 4-5 times average, and higher, on Opening Day actually did occur. So I don't understand the problem.
Yes, even on Opening Day. In the absence of far more data than a few select examples, I would consider those cases with ratios way above the mean to be statistical anomalies which could probably be explained by real world factors specific to those occasions - especially if the phenomenon is era specific.

If that is the case, I don't know how a computer simulation could accurately reflect this.

Regarding the end of the season, I would be interested to know how average attendances rise throughout the season if a team is in a close race. I would have expected that a team's average would have been gradually rising throughout the season, lessening the percentage rise for a crucial game late in the season.

I'm still not sure how easy it would be to incorporate attendance variations late in the season if the league's overall average attendance has already been determined in the settings.

Last edited by as5680; 11-04-2013 at 09:35 PM.
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Old 11-04-2013, 10:31 PM   #23
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Yes, even on Opening Day. In the absence of far more data than a few select examples, I would consider those cases with ratios way above the mean to be statistical anomalies which could probably be explained by real world factors specific to those occasions - especially if the phenomenon is era specific.
I am dealing with that specific era because my league is in the 1800s. So it applies to my situation.

Also, I have already acknowledged above that in an environment in which the entire season sells at 71% capacity--and where the worst attendance team still sells 45% of its capacity--a 4x-5x bump is impossible. But in a situation where baseball is the new rage, attendance averages 2,000 in a 10,000 park, and you get a big event like Opening Day, it's not only possible, it's likely.

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If that is the case, I don't know how a computer simulation could accurately reflect this.
There's a trick they could consider using to tackle this problem. It's called "programming". Maybe they could look into it.

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Regarding the end of the season, I would be interested to know how average attendances rise throughout the season if a team is in a close race. I would have expected that a team's average would have been gradually rising throughout the season, lessening the percentage rise for a crucial game late in the season.
Through programming, conditions could be set in which--and just by way of example--if a team has a home game and they are between 2 GB and 2 GA with seven or fewer days left, attendance runs between 90% to 100% of capacity; if the team stays within that range it maintains that capacity; if the team falls to 3 or 4 GB, attendance falls to between league average and 10% above league average; if the team runs out to a 3 or 4 game lead, attendance goes between 80% and 95% capacity. I don;t know the exact numbers, but something like that. I don't see how that can't be written into the code.

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I'm still not sure how easy it would be to incorporate attendance variations late in the season if the league's overall average attendance has already been determined in the settings.
I don't think this would be as hard as you're suggesting it might. I think all it would take is someone with a little imagination, a facility with Retrosheet, and half-way decent coding skills.
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Old 11-04-2013, 10:58 PM   #24
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I want to make it clear that I am not asking for random spikes that are 4-5 times average attendance. That would be a little silly.

But Opening Day, and end of season when the team is in a close race for the pennant? That did happen in real life, so to my way of thinking, there's no reason why it shouldn't happen in this game.
This already happens. I had 59215 on OD. 58545 my final home game. I had a 22.5 game lead
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Old 11-04-2013, 10:58 PM   #25
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...
I don't think this would be as hard as you're suggesting it might. I think all it would take is someone with a little imagination, a facility with Retrosheet, and half-way decent coding skills.
I like the idea a lot. I agree that it seems like it should be easy to code too.

One thing I've found from with OOTP though is that sometimes things that seem like they should be easy to code turn out to be tricky enough to give Markus fits, while he'll sometimes implement stuff that seems really tricky easily.

So I don't like to make assumptions on how hard or easy something will be to code. If your idea is in fact easy enough to code then it would be great to see it implemented.

Last edited by Lukas Berger; 11-04-2013 at 10:59 PM.
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Old 11-04-2013, 11:57 PM   #26
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I do not use any season before the early 1950s or so for attendance analysis. That's because Retrosheet's game logs only have attendance figures for most or all the games in a season from that period onwards. Before then the records are incomplete, and often the only figures available are rough estimates. Thus the data is not complete nor accurate enough to make any sort of meaningful analysis.

I'll note also you're looking at it in terms of capacity. I do not understand why you are looking at it that way. I think it makes more sense to look at it in terms of a comparison to other regular season games, since a home opener is an 'event' that either draws better or worse than a 'regular' game, much as a holiday or Sunday or other game might draw. It's the relationship between the typical attendance on different days at different times and situations which establish attendance patterns that can be replicated.

(I would point out that, technically speaking, the maximum attendance of a game is the real park maximum capacity, and not a somewhat more arbitrary listing of the number of seats. Bleachers—being bench seating—in particular made it difficult to estimate the true capacity of a park since varying numbers of people could be squeezed in. There's also standing room only tickets. To me the maximum capacity of a park is the total maximum number that can attend a game.)

Last edited by Le Grande Orange; 11-05-2013 at 12:00 AM.
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Old 11-05-2013, 07:41 AM   #27
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I think it would be more than just programming attendance spikes. There would likely be some financial implications that would have to be accounted for too. If you have a tight race with 3,4 or even 5 teams in the last month, suddenly you've got a few teams with a large revenue increase.

How is that going to affect the over-all league financials?

I don't know, just throwing it out there.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:14 AM   #28
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There's a trick they could consider using to tackle this problem. It's called "programming". Maybe they could look into it.
Not sure there's any need for the sarcasm. It may be possible to see 4-5x or more increases on Opening Day but I think it's a stretch to say it is likely - even in the 1929 example only three teams out of 10 have a rise of more than 4x (or indeed, 3.16). Using a mean skews the stats to some extent when there are real outliers such as Cincinnati's 6.74 - the median for 1929 is only 2.36.

This is why I would suggest, in the absence of much more detailed or complete data, that the figures over 4-5x higher are anomalies to be explained by real world factors specific to those particular situations, rather than an overall trend. In reality, there must have been a reason why Cincinnati's opening crowd was so many times higher than average while for Boston there was virtually no difference. Or why Cincinnati's opening crowd was almost the same as the Giants despite an overall average about a third that of the Giants. It is impossible to see a pattern to the increases from the available data alone.

All I am suggesting is that if this is the case, it is very difficult to reflect unquantifiable/unknown historical real world factors in a simulation. If three teams out of 10 were to have an increase of 4-5x or more, to reflect the 1929 example, it would inevitably have to be random to some extent as to which teams they were. I'm not sure that I would want to see that.

Last edited by as5680; 11-05-2013 at 11:16 AM.
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Old 11-05-2013, 01:35 PM   #29
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Not sure there's any need for the sarcasm.
That's why I used a winky-wink. It wasn't meant to be mean-spirited. Please don't take it seriously.

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It may be possible to see 4-5x or more increases on Opening Day but I think it's a stretch to say it is likely - even in the 1929 example only three teams out of 10 have a rise of more than 4x (or indeed, 3.16). Using a mean skews the stats to some extent when there are real outliers such as Cincinnati's 6.74 - the median for 1929 is only 2.36.

This is why I would suggest, in the absence of much more detailed or complete data, that the figures over 4-5x higher are anomalies to be explained by real world factors specific to those particular situations, rather than an overall trend. In reality, there must have been a reason why Cincinnati's opening crowd was so many times higher than average while for Boston there was virtually no difference. Or why Cincinnati's opening crowd was almost the same as the Giants despite an overall average about a third that of the Giants. It is impossible to see a pattern to the increases from the available data alone.

All I am suggesting is that if this is the case, it is very difficult to reflect unquantifiable/unknown historical real world factors in a simulation. If three teams out of 10 were to have an increase of 4-5x or more, to reflect the 1929 example, it would inevitably have to be random to some extent as to which teams they were. I'm not sure that I would want to see that.
I agree with much of what you say here, and in all honesty, I'm not able to quickly and reliably back up my assertion on a blanket basis. I go to 1939, for instance, and see that on Opening Day the Senators exceed their average by 7.2x and the Pirates by 3.2x and the Browns by 6.5x, but the Braves were less than half their average, and the Cubs were at only 1.75x. So, I'd need to do more research on this than I have time for.

All I can say is that in my own league, which has an average attendance setting of 1,414 but ended up with an actual average attendance of 1,780, the Opening Day crowds averaged only 1.29x the final season attendance averages, with a range of 2.03x down to 0.77x (and three teams under 1.00). Furthermore, only one of the twelve teams exceeded 66% capacity for their Opening Day tilt, and fully half of the clubs were under 30% capacity for theirs.

I've been following baseball for 45 years and have been a SABR member for 25 of those, and I can tell you with complete confidence that simply does not pass the smell test. It just doesn't. And I believe it should be closely reviewed.
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Old 01-24-2015, 10:08 PM   #30
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Very true
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Old 01-21-2016, 01:31 AM   #31
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I would also love it if you could set up about 3 rivalries per team. In addition to increased attendance, I would suggest that results of the rivalry games could have higher effects on player morale, a greater impact on owner reaction/likelihood of being fired if performing poorly vs your rival, and a higher chance of player ejections.


A related item I'd like to see concerning the rivalries, is the ability in the team screen to see all-time records vs all other teams (if this can currently be done, I guess I just haven't figured it out).
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:28 PM   #32
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i'd rather OOTP track how heated a rivalry between teams got.

i had a spreadsheet that would track it for our old Laseron league. i did it post mortem, to compare the franchises.

i made it where the closer the teams finished in the standings the more heat the rivalry had. This was only if the teams were in the hunt for the playoffs.

Teams that met in the playoffs would also get some heat. And the deeper the series went the more heat the rivalry. And the bigger the stakes, the more heat. So playing each other in the wild card, wasn't as heated as if they met in the League Championship series.

The rivalry would grow if they met one of the criteria above in consecutive years, and it would dissipate if they didn't meet the criteria above.

The only thing i would add, that i didn't have then is that teams that were relatively close got a slight bonus.

Also, i would like to see spikes for teams that had national followings like New York and Boston would draw bigger crowds when they came to town.
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Old 02-02-2016, 09:57 PM   #33
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I would also love it if you could set up about 3 rivalries per team.
An interesting system for fictional leagues would be for rivalries to be determined dynamically based on certain criteria and results from within that league itself. (I put a little thought into such a system awhile back, trying to determine what criteria should go into determining a rivalry, and how to weight such criteria.)
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