Home | Webstore
Latest News: OOTP Update 20.6 - OOTP 20 Available - FHM 5 Available

  

Go Back   OOTP Developments Forums > Out of the Park Baseball 20 > OOTP 20 - General Discussions

OOTP 20 - General Discussions Everything about the newest version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 03-22-2019, 12:25 PM   #61
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,741
Thanks: 38
Thanked 897x in 505 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post

You're using the observation of a failure to prove statistical analysis was unwarranted. I'm telling you that statistical analysis would have predicted the observation.

His flyout rate would have predicted it too. Balls that used to clear the fence were caught at or near the warning track-a clear sign of a slower bat. Flyouts can be quantified and the rate is a pencil and paper calculation. If his flyout rate was up, his bat was getting slower. Knowing the exit velocity would have verified this, not uncovered it.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:26 PM   #62
CMH
Hall Of Famer
 
CMH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 268
Thanked 109x in 54 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
You're not helping things by calling him a troll. Let's keep the discussion civil. Thanks.
Helping what exactly? He's lying in his post and I'm calling him out on it.

Tell him to stop lying and maybe people will take his opinions seriously.
__________________
Formerly YankeePride
CMH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:28 PM   #63
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,741
Thanks: 38
Thanked 897x in 505 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
Helping what exactly? He's lying in his post and I'm calling him out on it.

Tell him to stop lying and maybe people will take his opinions seriously.

How am I lying? Please point out my untruthful statements.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:29 PM   #64
BIG17EASY
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,649
Thanks: 1,754
Thanked 1,571x in 861 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
More data doesn't always mean meaningful data that tells us new things. Radar guns put numbers on things. It will tell us how fast Jordan Hicks throws, not that he throws fast.
But there is a difference between 99 and 104, which are both fast.

I've read this entire thread and I think your point has been lost. Tell me if I'm wrong, but you don't like exit velocity included in historical games because it wasn't part of the game back then. That argument certainly holds weight.

The second part of your argument, that I tend to agree with, is that we don't know what exit velocity tells us WITHIN THE CONFINES OF OOTP. We know for a fact that pitch speed is simply cosmetic and does not have an effect on the outcome of a pitch or an at bat. So how do we know exit velocity is more meaningful than that? I haven't seen the developers answer that question, but I haven't been nearly as tuned into the the boards as I have in previous years. If they have answered that question, can someone please link to that thread?

You're right that exit velocity doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. However, it helps us track what we already know to a more precise degree and more easily. So if it does have an actual effect on gameplay, then it's a good addition. If it's purely cosmetic (like pitch speed), it's a waste of time, IMO.
BIG17EASY is offline   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
BirdWatcher (03-22-2019)
Old 03-22-2019, 12:29 PM   #65
BirdWatcher
All Star Starter
 
BirdWatcher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 1,972
Thanks: 1,501
Thanked 779x in 544 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
More data doesn't always mean meaningful data that tells us new things. Radar guns put numbers on things. It will tell us how fast Jordan Hicks throws, not that he throws fast.
I agree with this.
But I would argue that this doesn't mean we shouldn't seek more data. I am convinced that more data is never a bad thing, but what matters most is what we do with that data. And sometimes, in the long run, what we might do with that data is say, well, that was fun and interesting but not terribly illuminating. I guess we can pretty much ignore this one. I just don't see any great value in ignoring data before we even know what value it might hold.
BirdWatcher is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:30 PM   #66
CMH
Hall Of Famer
 
CMH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 268
Thanked 109x in 54 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
His flyout rate would have predicted it too. Balls that used to clear the fence were caught at or near the warning track-a clear sign of a slower bat. Flyouts can be quantified and the rate is a pencil and paper calculation. If his flyout rate was up, his bat was getting slower. Knowing the exit velocity would have verified this, not uncovered it.
I agree with you here. But you're still looking at the failures and ignoring the successful results. Successful results, solid hits, home runs, would still have exit velocities. And if scouts had that information, they could have viewed it and seen that DiMaggio's hard hit balls were not as hard hit as they used to be.

I think we're talking in circles and essentially saying the same things otherwise.
__________________
Formerly YankeePride
CMH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:30 PM   #67
zrog2000
All Star Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,347
Thanks: 584
Thanked 887x in 528 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shake Appeal View Post
I can't wait until OOTP has xOBA.
xwOBA, yeah!
zrog2000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:31 PM   #68
BIG17EASY
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,649
Thanks: 1,754
Thanked 1,571x in 861 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
Helping what exactly? He's lying in his post and I'm calling him out on it.

Tell him to stop lying and maybe people will take his opinions seriously.
You're purposefully taking him literally simply to prove your point. Turning his words into a lie is just as bad as if he was actually lying. He's not saying he watches every single at bat in every single game. He's saying he watches the games his team plays.
BIG17EASY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:35 PM   #69
CMH
Hall Of Famer
 
CMH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 268
Thanked 109x in 54 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
How am I lying? Please point out my untruthful statements.
I already did. Multiple times when explaining why I think it's trolling to continue to say it.

You made statements suggesting that exit velocity was worthless because people can and do watch every at-bat of every game.

It's not possible and it doesn't happen. By the time someone gets around to watching every at-bat of every player, the players will have had several new at-bats possibly making the results of the previous ones null.


Anyway, I'm not saying you're a troll. I don't think you're trolling in this thread. I think continuing with that statement is trolling when it's obviously not true. It would be brushing aside the argument with a false narrative.

I shouldn't have used the word because my intent with it has been misconstrued. I apologize for that.
__________________
Formerly YankeePride
CMH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:36 PM   #70
zrog2000
All Star Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,347
Thanks: 584
Thanked 887x in 528 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
I agree with you here. But you're still looking at the failures and ignoring the successful results. Successful results, solid hits, home runs, would still have exit velocities. And if scouts had that information, they could have viewed it and seen that DiMaggio's hard hit balls were not as hard hit as they used to be.

I think we're talking in circles and essentially saying the same things otherwise.
Well, I kind of disagree with the fly ball rates going up. Fly ball rates almost never go up with age. Ground ball rates do. They didn't even keep track of fly ball and ground ball rates when DiMaggio was playing so I'm kind of confused about this point anyway.
zrog2000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:37 PM   #71
Shake Appeal
Minors (Single A)
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 72
Thanks: 12
Thanked 33x in 20 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
You're right that exit velocity doesn't tell us anything we don't already know.
He's not right.

There is a hell of a difference between saying "it's hot outside; I know because I went outside" and saying "it's 95 degrees Fahrenheit; I measured it under laboratory conditions." And it's crazy to argue otherwise!

Further, exit velocity reliably correlates with outcomes. It is usefully predictive. Believe it or not, high-speed cameras and computers outperform the eye test. By a lot! They catch things we don't, they catch them sooner, and they tell us stories about the future that are worth tens of millions of dollars to baseball franchises.
Shake Appeal is offline   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
zrog2000 (03-22-2019)
Old 03-22-2019, 12:38 PM   #72
zrog2000
All Star Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,347
Thanks: 584
Thanked 887x in 528 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shake Appeal View Post
He's not right.

There is a hell of a difference between saying "it's hot outside; I know because I went outside" and saying "it's 95 degrees Fahrenheit; I measured it under laboratory conditions." And it's crazy to argue otherwise!

Further, exit velocity reliably correlates with outcomes. It is usefully predictive. Believe it or not, high-speed cameras and computers outperform the eye test. By a lot! They catch things we don't, they catch them sooner, and they tell us stories about the future that are worth tens of millions of dollars to baseball franchises.
Wish I could thank this post 100 times.
zrog2000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:43 PM   #73
BIG17EASY
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,649
Thanks: 1,754
Thanked 1,571x in 861 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shake Appeal View Post
He's not right.

There is a hell of a difference between saying "it's hot outside; I know because I went outside" and saying "it's 95 degrees Fahrenheit; I measured it under laboratory conditions." And it's crazy to argue otherwise!

Further, exit velocity reliably correlates with outcomes. It is usefully predictive. Believe it or not, high-speed cameras and computers outperform the eye test. By a lot! They catch things we don't, they catch them sooner, and they tell us stories about the future that are worth tens of millions of dollars to baseball franchises.
You're splitting hairs. It tells us things more precisely. But it doesn't turn an apple into an orange.
BIG17EASY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:43 PM   #74
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,741
Thanks: 38
Thanked 897x in 505 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
You're right that exit velocity doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. However, it helps us track what we already know to a more precise degree and more easily.

Your first sentence is my whole point. My point is with those who act like EV is uncovering something we didn't know. Your second statement is correct, too. At best it can verify our observations and what we see in other stats. It can also be a short cut (like the DiMaggio example I gave), but it's hardly vital and if it went away tomorrow baseball life would go on.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:44 PM   #75
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,741
Thanks: 38
Thanked 897x in 505 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by zrog2000 View Post
Well, I kind of disagree with the fly ball rates going up. Fly ball rates almost never go up with age. Ground ball rates do. They didn't even keep track of fly ball and ground ball rates when DiMaggio was playing so I'm kind of confused about this point anyway.

They recorded in the score book whether or not a guy flew out (F7 for instance) as opposed to grounded out (6-3 for instance).
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:48 PM   #76
CMH
Hall Of Famer
 
CMH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 268
Thanked 109x in 54 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
You're purposefully taking him literally simply to prove your point. Turning his words into a lie is just as bad as if he was actually lying. He's not saying he watches every single at bat in every single game. He's saying he watches the games his team plays.
Please stop. That's not what happened at all.

1. He said there are people in baseball that watch every at-bat of every game.
2. I said that's not possible.
3. Someone else asked how he was able to do that.
4. I said he didn't, he couldn't, and no one else (those baseball people) can either. Then I added that continuing that narrative is trolling to brush aside the value of exit velocity.
5. He then made a comment about Joe DiMaggio
6. Everything I've posted since to him (other than responding to you and responding to him responding to me responding to you) has been about Joe DiMaggio.
__________________
Formerly YankeePride
CMH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:48 PM   #77
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,741
Thanks: 38
Thanked 897x in 505 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
Anyway, I'm not saying you're a troll. I don't think you're trolling in this thread. I think continuing with that statement is trolling when it's obviously not true. It would be brushing aside the argument with a false narrative.

I shouldn't have used the word because my intent with it has been misconstrued. I apologize for that.

There's still the whole "liar" part. If no one watches every single at bat of a season it's because they know it's not necessary to get a good sample of the player's performance. As another poster noted, you're taking me literally so you can I'm a liar.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 03-22-2019 at 12:52 PM.
Curve Ball Dave is online now   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
BIG17EASY (03-22-2019)
Old 03-22-2019, 12:49 PM   #78
Shake Appeal
Minors (Single A)
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 72
Thanks: 12
Thanked 33x in 20 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
You're splitting hairs. It tells us things more precisely. But it doesn't turn an apple into an orange.
Telling us things more precisely is literally the value of science. In baseball, specifically, it's worth millions of dollars to ball clubs.

Compare with weather forecasting. "I knew it was going to rain today because I walked outside and water was beginning to fall out of the sky" is not as useful as "Data suggest it's going to rain three days from now because we're tracking a developing warm front."

Last edited by Shake Appeal; 03-22-2019 at 12:51 PM.
Shake Appeal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:51 PM   #79
CMH
Hall Of Famer
 
CMH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 268
Thanked 109x in 54 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
There's still the whole "liar" part. If no one watches every single at bat of a season it's because they know it's not necessary to get a good sample of the player's performance.
You lied that there are people that watch every at-bat of every game to disprove the value of exit velocity.

Now we are truly going in circles here because you want to ignore what you actually posted.
__________________
Formerly YankeePride
CMH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 12:54 PM   #80
BIG17EASY
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,649
Thanks: 1,754
Thanked 1,571x in 861 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Your first sentence is my whole point. My point is with those who act like EV is uncovering something we didn't know. Your second statement is correct, too. At best it can verify our observations and what we see in other stats. It can also be a short cut (like the DiMaggio example I gave), but it's hardly vital and if it went away tomorrow baseball life would go on.
Sure, but it's also not ruining the game, either.
BIG17EASY is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:46 PM.

 

Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

The Major League Baseball Players Association (www.MLBPLAYERS.com ) is the collective bargaining representative for all professional baseball players of the thirty Major League Baseball teams and serves as the exclusive group licensing agent for commercial and licensing activities involving active Major League baseball players. On behalf of its members, it operates the Players Choice licensing program and the Players Choice Awards, which benefit the needy through the Major League Baseball Players Trust, a charitable foundation established and run entirely by Major League baseball players. Follow: @MLB_Players; @MLBPAClubhouse; @MLBPlayersTrust

Out of the Park Baseball is a registered trademark of Out of the Park Developments GmbH & Co. KG

Google Play is a trademark of Google Inc.

Apple, iPhone, iPod touch and iPad are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

COPYRIGHT © 2017 OUT OF THE PARK DEVELOPMENTS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

 

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright © 2018 Out of the Park Developments