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Old 03-18-2019, 12:47 PM   #1
losbravos
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Looking at some Current Ratings with 100% Scouting

Player 1:

Contact: 70

Gap Power: 60

Home Run Power: 70

Eye/Discipline: 70

Avoid K's: 50



Player 2:

Contact: 70

Gap Power: 55

Home Run Power: 75

Eye/Discipline: 85

Avoid K's: 45



Player 3:

Contact: 50

Gap Power: 55

Home Run Power: 60

Eye/Discipline: 55

Avoid K's: 40



Player 4:

Contact: 45

Gap Power: 60

Home Run Power: 55

Eye/Discipline: 50

Avoid K's: 45


Give up?

Player 1: Juan Soto

Player 2: Mike Trout

Player 3: Ronald Acu˝a

Player 4: Billy McKinney


How does that make sense to start off current ratings with Soto as a comparable player to Mike Trout, but then Acu˝a is comparable to Billy McKinney in current ratings?



I'll admit I'm biased, but can someone tell me what I am missing to start two players, who had almost identical statistical seasons last year, off at such an extremely different level for this upcoming season?
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:00 PM   #2
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are you saying you think mike trout and ronald acuna had "almost identical statistical seasons last year"

i'll alert the people around me before your answer that if it seems like I am dying it is only because I am laughing so hard
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:07 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkgo View Post
are you saying you think mike trout and ronald acuna had "almost identical statistical seasons last year"

i'll alert the people around me before your answer that if it seems like I am dying it is only because I am laughing so hard
He's saying Acuna and Soto had similar seasons.

I'm dying laughing at your reading comprehension,
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:08 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by losbravos View Post
How does that make sense to start off current ratings with Soto as a comparable player to Mike Trout, but then Acu˝a is comparable to Billy McKinney in current ratings?



I'll admit I'm biased, but can someone tell me what I am missing to start two players, who had almost identical statistical seasons last year, off at such an extremely different level for this upcoming season?
Well, we're using the ZIPS projections as the base here, not the past season's performance, as with all the ratings, and ZIPS is extremely high on Soto.

Which seems not unreasonable, given that what he did at his age last year is nearly unprecedented.

We were a bit shocked when we saw them and checked them over, but they checked out.

Acuna is not really particularly comparable to McKinney though, when you take the overall picture into account. He's actually at least somewhat better at literally everything and significantly better at some things when you look at the raw ratings. Plus he has more potential to grow still.

But overall, it's probably a case of ZIPS being a bit high on Soto and McKinney and a bit low on Acuna, for whatever reason. We do smooth out some of the rough spots with ZIPS, so we can take a look here, but at first glance, all I really see that's likely off is that McKinney might be a touch too highly rated.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:08 PM   #5
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No, I'm saying that Acu˝a and Soto had almost identical stats last year. Neither of them should be comparable to Trout in current ratings, but they should be similar to one another, not Acu˝a comparable to Billy McKinney and Soto to Trout...
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:12 PM   #6
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Looking it up, ZIPS projects Soto at .296/.400/.559, Acuna at .276/.344/.511 and McKinney at .229/.295/.407

So the main problem definitely seems to be that McKinney is a bit too highly rated for some reason. We'll adjust him down a bit.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:16 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
Well, we're using the ZIPS projections as the base here, not the past season's performance, as with all the ratings, and ZIPS is extremely high on Soto.

Which seems not unreasonable, given that what he did at his age last year is nearly unprecedented.

We were a bit shocked when we saw them and checked them over, but they checked out.

Acuna is not really particularly comparable to McKinney though, when you take the overall picture into account. He's actually at least somewhat better at literally everything and significantly better at some things when you look at the raw ratings. Plus he has more potential to grow still.

But overall, it's probably a case of ZIPS being a bit high on Soto and McKinney and a bit low on Acuna, for whatever reason. We do smooth out some of the rough spots with ZIPS, so we can take a look here, but at first glance, all I really see that's likely off is that McKinney might be a touch too highly rated.

Why only use ZiPS though, and not some sort of aggregate of multiple projection systems? Because right now it looks like Soto is going to win the Triple Crown in the NL in ootp20 at age 19, he is rated as the best pure hitter in the NL and it's not close...
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:16 PM   #8
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A couple things to help here:

1. You're seeing rounded numbers for ratings. Acuna's 50 could be 52 while McKinney's 45 could be 43. That's nearly a ten point difference in ratings.

That isn't identical at all. You can use the same assumptions for power and plate discipline.

2. McKinney had an extremely small sample size last season and is 23. Acuna is 20 and his potentials could be much higher, no? All that you're saying here is that Acuna at three years younger is only slightly better than a 23-year-old seldom used McKinney.

I don't have the game in front of me, but my assumption is that Acuna's potential ratings will likely make him a much better player by the time he's 23 and McKinney is 26. It's not a fair comparison to make by only showing current and ignoring other factors.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:22 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
Looking it up, ZIPS projects Soto at .296/.400/.559, Acuna at .276/.344/.511 and McKinney at .229/.295/.407

So the main problem definitely seems to be that McKinney is a bit too highly rated for some reason. We'll adjust him down a bit.



It has Eloy as a .289/.338/.525 hitter, but his over current rating is a 40 with current ratings of 40/50/55/35/45.


The ratings just seem very inconsistent to be based purely off ZiPS
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:23 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by losbravos View Post
Why only use ZiPS though, and not some sort of aggregate of multiple projection systems? Because right now it looks like Soto is going to win the Triple Crown in the NL in ootp20 at age 19, he is rated as the best pure hitter in the NL and it's not close...
We have a relationship with Dan and he's kind enough to let us use ZIPS.

We've used other projection systems in the past, but we like ZIPS and there are legal and other barriers to using some of the other projections.

As far as Soto/Acuna goes, wait for the season to play out. What Soto did last year was truly extraordinary. You can't know that ZIPS isn't right about Soto at this point in time

Of course you're entitled to your own opinion on whether it is or not, and if it bothers you too much, well that's what commissioner mode is for
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:26 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by losbravos View Post
It has Eloy as a .289/.338/.525 hitter, but his over current rating is a 40 with current ratings of 40/50/55/35/45.


The ratings just seem very inconsistent to be based purely off ZiPS
We do edit the ratings in some cases, in part to get the AI to pick rosters at least somewhat close to what the real teams are doing and given that the White Sox seem determined to keep Eloy off the MLB roster...
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Last edited by Lukas Berger; 03-18-2019 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:28 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
A couple things to help here:

1. You're seeing rounded numbers for ratings. Acuna's 50 could be 52 while McKinney's 45 could be 43. That's nearly a ten point difference in ratings.

That isn't identical at all. You can use the same assumptions for power and plate discipline.

2. McKinney had an extremely small sample size last season and is 23. Acuna is 20 and his potentials could be much higher, no? All that you're saying here is that Acuna at three years younger is only slightly better than a 23-year-old seldom used McKinney.

I don't have the game in front of me, but my assumption is that Acuna's potential ratings will likely make him a much better player by the time he's 23 and McKinney is 26. It's not a fair comparison to make by only showing current and ignoring other factors.



I guess from my opinion, last years stats should play a bigger role in current stats. We've seen what he can do over the same amount of time as Soto in their rookie campaigns, and the results were a .388 wOBA compared to a .392 wOBA. But that won't be reflected in the first year of this version of the game, at all.
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Old 03-18-2019, 01:33 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
As far as Soto/Acuna goes, wait for the season to play out. What Soto did last year was truly extraordinary.



But that's my point,

Soto last year : .292/.406/.517 146 wRC+
Acuna last year (only 10.5 months older): .293/.366/.522 143 wRC+


but that's not reflective of how they are set up going into 2019 in OOTP20.

I used Billy Mckinney in my example, but the point is that the kind of hitter Acuna is based on his current ratings is a dime a dozen. He had just as special of a year as Soto, won the ROTY, but I'm going to have to wait .5-1.5 season before he is a more valuable bat than someone like Max Kepler in the game, who has done nothing in real life to warrant what his current ratings are in the game.

Last edited by losbravos; 03-18-2019 at 01:43 PM.
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:05 PM   #14
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I know Dan S. does a chat on Fangraphs sometimes. Feel free to take it up with him

I'd agree with you, I think Acuna should be just as good offensively as Soto, but I'm not the one to rate the players. You have a few options:
-Live with it
-Manually edit the ratings in commissioner mode
-Use the live updating function to pump Acuna up when he hits a HR every game over the opening weekend

And I do think he'll still perform with those ratings. He's average to above average in all the key ratings, and should be a plus defensive player. No, he won't have Trout-like seasons, but should still be a great player.
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:16 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
A couple things to help here:

1. You're seeing rounded numbers for ratings. Acuna's 50 could be 52 while McKinney's 45 could be 43. That's nearly a ten point difference in ratings.

That isn't identical at all. You can use the same assumptions for power and plate discipline.

2. McKinney had an extremely small sample size last season and is 23. Acuna is 20 and his potentials could be much higher, no? All that you're saying here is that Acuna at three years younger is only slightly better than a 23-year-old seldom used McKinney.

I don't have the game in front of me, but my assumption is that Acuna's potential ratings will likely make him a much better player by the time he's 23 and McKinney is 26. It's not a fair comparison to make by only showing current and ignoring other factors.

The True Current ratings are this:

Acuna
Contact: 110
Gap: 130
Power: 135
Eye/Patience: 111

Soto
Contact: 139
Gap: 134
Power: 171
Eye/Patience: 152

Mckinney
Contact: 95
Gap: 134
Power: 118
Eye/Patience: 108


My point is that Soto, despite putting up virtually identical numbers as Acuna in 2019, starts this game as the best hitter in the NL by a wide margin. Acuna starts this game off as in your own words "only slightly better than a 23-year-old seldom used McKinney."



The randomness of the development means that the there is a likely-hood that Acuna never reaches the kind of player that Soto starts out as in OOTP20, despite them being nearly identical in 2018 in real life.


And even if his development goes perfect, I have to wait .5 a season to 2 seasons for Acuna to reach that potential, while Soto starts out 95% of the way to his potential ratings. Again, this is spite of them finishing with near identical stats last year.



I'm fine with their potential ratings, I think that is pretty realistic. My whole grip is with their current ratings being so far apart despite how similar they finished last year, and how spring training is shaping up to be this year.
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:18 PM   #16
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Glad to see the Soto/Acuna thread is already here.

Makes no sense to me that Soto is a top 5 hitter in the game and Acuna is slightly above league average.

But like it's mentioned above you can edit ratings.
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:36 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
We do edit the ratings in some cases, in part to get the AI to pick rosters at least somewhat close to what the real teams are doing and given that the White Sox seem determined to keep Eloy off the MLB roster...

Defense training in AAA lol
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:43 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold View Post
I know Dan S. does a chat on Fangraphs sometimes. Feel free to take it up with him

I'd agree with you, I think Acuna should be just as good offensively as Soto, but I'm not the one to rate the players.

...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
We do edit the ratings in some cases, in part to get the AI to pick rosters at least somewhat close to what the real teams are doing...


So that's 2 different answers from 2 different devs, cool.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold View Post
I'd agree with you, I think Acuna should be just as good offensively as Soto, but I'm not the one to rate the players. You have a few options:
-Live with it
-Manually edit the ratings in commissioner mode
-Use the live updating function to pump Acuna up when he hits a HR every game over the opening weekend

I play exclusively in Challenge Mode. So despite you agreeing with a concern I'm bringing up in the 'beta-test', I'm being told to "Live with it."



Cool. How do I request a refund, all the links I found through google are dead. I don't see a need to buy this version, when in OOTP 19 a year of development on my favorite player results in him being a better player than who he starts out as in OOTP XX.

edit: Never mind on that last bit, I found it

Last edited by losbravos; 03-18-2019 at 02:50 PM.
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:44 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
We have a relationship with Dan and he's kind enough to let us use ZIPS.

We've used other projection systems in the past, but we like ZIPS and there are legal and other barriers to using some of the other projections.

As far as Soto/Acuna goes, wait for the season to play out. What Soto did last year was truly extraordinary. You can't know that ZIPS isn't right about Soto at this point in time

Of course you're entitled to your own opinion on whether it is or not, and if it bothers you too much, well that's what commissioner mode is for
Just curious but what was used last year?
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Old 03-18-2019, 02:51 PM   #20
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We do edit the ratings in some cases, in part to get the AI to pick rosters at least somewhat close to what the real teams are doing and given that the White Sox seem determined to keep Eloy off the MLB roster...



That's because the FO is worried about contractual control. If they start the season with him in the MLB, then he hits arbitration and free agency earlier. The Cubs did this with Kris Bryant as well. It's a fairly common exploitation.
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