Which team won the division?

[scottk1983]

Based on the team rankings in the pictures below, which team do you think won the NL Central Division?

Answer and team identities will be revealed when the poll closes in 5 days.

[NoOne]

the bottom team is clearly the best overall in that sample.

team 1 is just as good, realtively speaking.

team 4 could has a similar offesne but bad pitching.

all have similar ba, so obp is easy to focus on without any math in your head... then it's down to pitching and luck...

any of these teams could be lucky to win enough. you'd have to replace the same time period several times to see which is best. winning a division doesn't necessarily mean they are the best team. lots of volatility with them all packed together like that, statistically speaking.

[damientheomen3]

Wouldn't be a poll if it was the obvious answer, so I went with team 2.

[BrewCrewFan]

Team 5 easily had the best runs scored to runs allowed ratio and its not even close

Give me team 5

[NoOne]

it's about who won the division, not who is best, unfortunately

based on how he phrased it, it's not likely #5. he alludes to the unusual. i still voted for #5, because it's the rational choice. (one of the rational choices.. 3 of them are excellent choices for various reasons)

if he included the pyt estimate on +/- wins, i'd use that to choose a division winner over the stats themselves as long as they are ~roughly similar and a bit of common sense applied... if one of them is +10 and the others are all ~0, i'd go with the plus 10 team. in fact if any team is at least ~5 above all of the others (realtively speaking) in plus/minus, that'd by my pick.

[bestbrother]

Team 4 for me, they get on base and thats enough to squeeze them home in a few close ones for me.

[NoOne]

so, who won the division?

[Twax]

Way to leave us hanging OP.

[slugga27]

He said five days. That would be 4/12.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DMan77]

I went with team 1 although that could be the trick of this question!

I like to look for OBP, defense, and BABIP.

[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by NoOne

so, who won the division?

Originally Posted by Twax

Way to leave us hanging OP.

Originally Posted by slugga27

He said five days. That would be 4/12.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for the interest guys, and for the backup slugga!

Yeah I did say 5 days, but that was mostly because I figured it would take that long just to get enough responses to have even bothered with a poll. So, I guess I'll give the poll until tomorrow to hopefully get a little more separation between the top 2 choices, then reveal the winning team.

For tonight though, I guess it wouldn't hurt to reveal who the teams were:

Team 1: Cubs
Team 2: Pirates
Team 3: Brewers
Team 4: Reds
Team 5: Cardinals

[low]

The Brewers offense was that bad?! Come on, now...

[herbyhancok]

Teams 2-4 all have negative run differentials so it's probably safe to eliminate them. Team 1 has a 75 run diff. and Team 5 has an 80 run diff.


Team 5 might have a better run differential, but Team 1 probably wins the division most of the time. Team 1's scoring was less home-run dependent, while the pitching and defense were much better. Less volatility in scoring and stability in run prevention will typically always win out.

[scottk1983]

Okay guys, without further delay, the final NL Central standings:



That's, as of the time of this post:

Pittsburgh - Team 2 (3 Votes)
Chicago - Team 1 (14 Votes)
St. Louis - Team 5 (11 Votes)
Milwaukee - Team 3 (3 Votes)
Cincinnati - Team 4 (1 Vote)

So Pittsburgh, with a -23 run differential, a middle of the road offense, a bottom of the barrel bullpen, and the worst defense in the NL, won the Division by 2 games over Team 1, the Cubs, and finished 14 games over .500!

Some more info:

Pittsburgh
Pythag Record: 79-83
Extra Inning Games: 12-9
One-run Games: 39-18
Pre All-Star Game Record: 41-48
Post All-Star Game Record: 47-26
Record vs. NL Central: 43-33

Cubs - 2nd place
Pythag Record: 89-73
Extra Inning Games: 13-5
One-run Games: 23-21
Record vs. NL Central: 43-33

Cardinals - 3rd place
Pythag Record: 89-73
Extra Inning Games: 8-6
One-run Games: 16-25
Record vs. NL Central: 33-43

[Matt Arnold]

Yeah, that's a nice second half comeback, and probably some very clutch bullpen work.

[Germaniac]

Team 1

Best pitching of the five teams plus decent hitting

[NoOne]

just shows you that 162 games doesn't really separate the men from the boys. the cream does not always rise. the best teams do not always get into the playoffs.

what's worse is when a team like that wins the WS. Unless it's "your" team, of course. (fan perspective, not playing ootp, although that too, i guess.)

[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by NoOne

just shows you that 162 games doesn't really separate the men from the boys. the cream does not always rise. the best teams do not always get into the playoffs.

what's worse is when a team like that wins the WS. Unless it's "your" team, of course. (fan perspective, not playing ootp, although that too, i guess.)

This reminds me that I should have mentioned that Pittsburgh lost in the divisional round to the 91-71 Dodgers, 3 games to 1.

Nationals beat Rays in the World Series, 4 games to 2.

[damientheomen3]

Eyyyyyyy!