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OOTP 16 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 01-28-2016, 12:28 PM   #41
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Wondering what the 2 of you think? Do you think Random Debut drops enough quality starting pitching on a yearly basis? I'm finishing up year 34 of my league and I have 5 pitchers in my Hall. Kershaw, Curt Simmons, Curt Schilling, Phil Niekro and Paul Dillenger. Kershaw won exactly 300 games. Kershaw and Schilling reached the 3000 K milestone. Niekro is the only other pitcher with more than 250 wins. Michael Wacha may be in real soon. But, after Wacha, I'm thinking it might be years before another pitcher gets elected.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:14 PM   #42
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Wondering what the 2 of you think? Do you think Random Debut drops enough quality starting pitching on a yearly basis? I'm finishing up year 34 of my league and I have 5 pitchers in my Hall. Kershaw, Curt Simmons, Curt Schilling, Phil Niekro and Paul Dillenger. Kershaw won exactly 300 games. Kershaw and Schilling reached the 3000 K milestone. Niekro is the only other pitcher with more than 250 wins. Michael Wacha may be in real soon. But, after Wacha, I'm thinking it might be years before another pitcher gets elected.
The Game may have a different answer because he uses Spritze for his MLBers, so he may see a different dispersal of SP. I currently have 4 SP in my Hall after 23 seasons worth of possible Hall voting: Ewell Blackwell, Don Drysdale, Zach Greinke, and Tim Hudson. In the next five years (looking at the upcoming eligible players), I hope to put in Michael Wacha, Lon Warneke, and Jim Bunning, so I should have 7 SP after 28 seasons.

My highest win total amongst the seven so far is Wacha at 258. Bunning has 239, Hudson 234, and Warneke 210. I'm learning that 300 wins is really hard when you're using 1984 as a stats and strategy settings base. Saberhagen has my most wins all-time at 278, but he is a shell of his former self and I don't see him making 285, much less 300. Blackwell had a really short career and was done at 33 with just 143 wins, but he had a monster peak, so I just couldn't leave him out. 57.4 WAR in his first 10 seasons is outstanding. Greinke only had 171 wins, and Drysdale had 173, but they were tremendous in short careers. Greinke's only lasted 13 years, but he was a nine time All-Star. The moral of the story is, it ain't all about the wins, at least not for me.

Incidentally Kershaw came out guns blazing in mine (3 straight Cy Young Awards [1901-1903], and an MVP [1901])and then crashed and burned, and didn't even win 100.

My position players in the Hall are Dick Allen (3B), Ken Caminiti (3B), Brian Dozier (surprisingly at SS), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), and Thurman Munson (C).
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:28 PM   #43
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The Game may have a different answer because he uses Spritze for his MLBers, so he may see a different dispersal of SP. I currently have 4 SP in my Hall after 23 seasons worth of possible Hall voting: Ewell Blackwell, Don Drysdale, Zach Greinke, and Tim Hudson. In the next five years (looking at the upcoming eligible players), I hope to put in Michael Wacha, Lon Warneke, and Jim Bunning, so I should have 7 SP after 28 seasons.

My highest win total amongst the seven so far is Wacha at 258. Bunning has 239, Hudson 234, and Warneke 210. I'm learning that 300 wins is really hard when you're using 1984 as a stats and strategy settings base. Saberhagen has my most wins all-time at 278, but he is a shell of his former self and I don't see him making 285, much less 300. Blackwell had a really short career and was done at 33 with just 143 wins, but he had a monster peak, so I just couldn't leave him out. 57.4 WAR in his first 10 seasons is outstanding. Greinke only had 171 wins, and Drysdale had 173, but they were tremendous in short careers. Greinke's only lasted 13 years, but he was a nine time All-Star. The moral of the story is, it ain't all about the wins, at least not for me.

Incidentally Kershaw came out guns blazing in mine (3 straight Cy Young Awards [1901-1903], and an MVP [1901])and then crashed and burned, and didn't even win 100.

My position players in the Hall are Dick Allen (3B), Ken Caminiti (3B), Brian Dozier (surprisingly at SS), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), and Thurman Munson (C).
Your Kershaw sounds like my David Price. Price was dominant to start out, but once he reached the end of his real playing/recalc years OOTP took him to a very bad place. I think he retired somewhere around 34 or 36. His final years were spent as a bottom of the bullpen guy.

Cool that Wacha was strong in yours too. Bob Friend won 200+ in my game and made me a big fan, but I don't think he's going to get voted in. His years of eligibility are slim and he just isn't getting the votes.

Whats the most wins a pitcher has put up in a season in your league? John Montefusco won 28 in mine. Had one more stellar season and then faded fast. Ed Karger is next with either 27 or 26.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:31 PM   #44
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One pitcher I forgot that I think will make the Hall in mine is Jim Kaat. He just retired....reason I forgot about him, is it took him forever to retire.
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:33 PM   #45
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This to The Game.....I really hope you don't mind us hijacking your thread to discuss random debut in general. It's my favorite way to play OOTP, but there just aren't that many out there that enjoy it. Love having a place to discuss it..
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Old 01-28-2016, 01:48 PM   #46
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Your Kershaw sounds like my David Price. Price was dominant to start out, but once he reached the end of his real playing/recalc years OOTP took him to a very bad place. I think he retired somewhere around 34 or 36. His final years were spent as a bottom of the bullpen guy.

Cool that Wacha was strong in yours too. Bob Friend won 200+ in my game and made me a big fan, but I don't think he's going to get voted in. His years of eligibility are slim and he just isn't getting the votes.

Whats the most wins a pitcher has put up in a season in your league? John Montefusco won 28 in mine. Had one more stellar season and then faded fast. Ed Karger is next with either 27 or 26.
The most wins a pitcher put up in my league in a season was 24 by Herb Score. He won the Cy Young and the MVP for the Athletics in 1904, with a 24-8 record, 2.27 ERA (led the league), 289.1 IP (led the league), only allowed 9 HR (lowest HR/9), walked 136 (most in the league), and struck out 369 (also an all-time record, along with his 11.5 K/9 rate that year), with a 10.9 WAR, and a 7.0 WPA. What a season. Unfortunately, the A's were upset by the Browns in the ALCS 4-2 that year (yes, I take the top two teams from each subleague for the playoffs, sue me).

Lefty Gomez had a better season in 1916 when he went 22-8, with a 1.75 ERA, and 327 K with just 81 BB, and a 0.97 WHIP. He had an 11.3 WAR, and 8.2 WPA that year, and needless to say won the Cy Young and the MVP in the AL for the Tigers. Unfortunately, the Tigers only went 82-80 and missed the playoffs that year.

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Old 01-28-2016, 01:49 PM   #47
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This to The Game.....I really hope you don't mind us hijacking your thread to discuss random debut in general. It's my favorite way to play OOTP, but there just aren't that many out there that enjoy it. Love having a place to discuss it..
Agree 100%. Thanks The Game. You rule.

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Old 01-28-2016, 02:00 PM   #48
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One pitcher I forgot that I think will make the Hall in mine is Jim Kaat. He just retired....reason I forgot about him, is it took him forever to retire.
I hate it when they hang on forever. Roberto Alomar put up a stellar -1.3 WAR combined in the seven seasons after his age 34 season. Dude, just retire already. You're already going to the HoF. Don't hang around and embarrass yourself. Know when it's time to get out.
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Old 01-29-2016, 05:11 AM   #49
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Gotcha. Thanks. Sorry to hear about the CF. I don't usually see position shortages, but I might not be looking closely enough.

EDIT: Then again, I use the default database and sprinkle in random players from the Spritze database.
Post a SS of your team. Just curious to see what it looks like. Explain the makeup of your team if you want.
Same for you DW.
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Old 01-29-2016, 07:51 AM   #50
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I hate it when they hang on forever. Roberto Alomar put up a stellar -1.3 WAR combined in the seven seasons after his age 34 season. Dude, just retire already. You're already going to the HoF. Don't hang around and embarrass yourself. Know when it's time to get out.
Player retirement is something I really hope Markus improves in the future. I don't like using minor league with recalc and I really think this plays a factor in players sticking around forever. I also like the reserve clause better than free agency, but I use a modified free agency setup so players will retire. 15 years before a player is eligible for free agency in my league.
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Old 01-29-2016, 09:53 AM   #51
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Post a SS of your team. Just curious to see what it looks like. Explain the makeup of your team if you want.
Same for you DW.
I don't actually have a team at the moment. I'm experimenting with settings, and I just finished 1924 (24th season of my league started in 1901). Really enjoying watching the league evolve. Whenever I take over a team, it always takes me so long to get through things that I never get to see the league unfold.

I'll post the standings page, some pages of the current World Champion Reds, the stats page for the AL and NL, as well as the two PCL players I pulled in from the Spritze database (had been meaning to do it for awhile, finally worked them into the November, 1923 amateur draft). Remember I use 1984 for my stats base for all seasons, so I've worked my way through the deadest of the deadball era, and still managed to have guys hit 30+, 40+ and sometimes even 50+ HR.
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:19 AM   #52
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:23 AM   #53
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:26 AM   #54
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Old 01-29-2016, 10:36 AM   #55
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Pat Eastley and Jack Messerly (both PCLers) were selected from the Spritze database using a random number generator. It would be cool if I can get some more recognizable names, but I'm not going to force it.

When you start a random debut, you usually get enough players for a 44 round inaugural draft. I figure when I start over I'll add enough from Spritze's masterpiece to make it a 45 round inaugural draft, and then add 2 players per year to my 5 round amateur drafts. That should be about enough.

I use the default database because I prefer the way it handles defensive ratings for younger MLB players like Manny Machado, Juan Lagares, Yan Gomes etc. It's just a personal preference, but I'll definitely sprinkle in a few Spritze specials as I go along in order to get Negro Leaguers, *** players, KBO players, PCL players etc.

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Old 01-29-2016, 10:48 AM   #56
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The really cool thing so far is that in 1984, the MLB league batting average was .260, and the MLB league earned run average was 3.81. So far, through 24 complete seasons, the MLB league batting average is about .260, and the MLB league earned run average is about 3.81. Awesome job Markus!
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Old 01-29-2016, 11:06 AM   #57
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I don't actually have a team at the moment. I'm experimenting with settings, and I just finished 1924 (24th season of my league started in 1901). Really enjoying watching the league evolve. Whenever I take over a team, it always takes me so long to get through things that I never get to see the league unfold.

I'll post the standings page, some pages of the current World Champion Reds, the stats page for the AL and NL, as well as the two PCL players I pulled in from the Spritze database (had been meaning to do it for awhile, finally worked them into the November, 1923 amateur draft). Remember I use 1984 for my stats base for all seasons, so I've worked my way through the deadest of the deadball era, and still managed to have guys hit 30+, 40+ and sometimes even 50+ HR.
I don't have a team either. Over the last few versions of OOTP, I've gotten to the point where I no longer enjoy controlling a team. I just like to watch the games/seasons play out. I still watch a game per day(with my current RDL, I sim to either the 1st day of June or July and then watch a game a day forward), but OOTP does all the work.
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Old 01-29-2016, 12:52 PM   #58
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I don't have a team either. Over the last few versions of OOTP, I've gotten to the point where I no longer enjoy controlling a team. I just like to watch the games/seasons play out. I still watch a game per day(with my current RDL, I sim to either the 1st day of June or July and then watch a game a day forward), but OOTP does all the work.
I like to pick All-Star teams, award winners, and HoFers. Other than that OOTP does the work for me too.
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Old 01-29-2016, 01:29 PM   #59
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I like to pick All-Star teams, award winners, and HoFers. Other than that OOTP does the work for me too.
Don't you love it when the AI constructs a super team? The Cleveland Spiders just won the 79 series. They trade away the league MVP Cecil Fielder, but sign free agent Ty Cobb. They now have a lineup that features 2 career .340 hitters in Cobb and Wade Boggs. They also have Ivan Rodriguez and Joe Morgan.
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Old 01-29-2016, 01:48 PM   #60
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Don't you love it when the AI constructs a super team? The Cleveland Spiders just won the 79 series. They trade away the league MVP Cecil Fielder, but sign free agent Ty Cobb. They now have a lineup that features 2 career .340 hitters in Cobb and Wade Boggs. They also have Ivan Rodriguez and Joe Morgan.
Cobb, Morgan, and Rodriguez up the middle? Criminy! Is the SS a defensive specialist? That's one helluvan up the middle, and you know what they say about strength up the middle.

Keep us posted on this potential juggernaut. Of course, injuries can always strike, but that's arguably the 4th best catcher in the entire history of baseball (behind Bench, Carter, Fisk), the 4th best 2B ever (behind Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie), the 3rd best 3B ever (behind Schmidt, Mathews), and the 2nd best CF ever (behind Mays). At the very worst they're each in the top 5 at their respective positions. Holy crap! That team should romp to the title, but there's always injuries and down years.

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