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Old 01-10-2020, 10:17 AM   #1
leandrocamargo
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What to do when a starter had a bad first inning

Hey there,

I want to know the general opinion about it:
If a starter pitch takes 4 or more runs in first inning should I call a reliever?
Or can I risk try him a little more? Is there any parameter to make such decision?

I'm pretty new to baseball strategy, and it happend in my save game and I don't know if I took the right decision.
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Old 01-10-2020, 10:35 AM   #2
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Leave him in.
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Old 01-10-2020, 11:59 AM   #3
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As with everything, it depends

How many relievers do you have? How many are able to last 2+ innings? Have a day off soon? Is it a vital game?

Generally better to leave the starter in if you can deal with the frustration
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Old 01-10-2020, 02:56 PM   #4
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Agree with "it depends". How the runs came about will instruct you. Did the fielders muck it up? Did he walk 2-3 batters and allow 3 4 5 hits in between.
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Old 01-11-2020, 08:57 PM   #5
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My understanding is pitchers aren't programmed to have "bad days". A few innings bad performance is random. So leave him in until he can be hit for. If my understanding isn't correct I'd like to know.
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Old 01-15-2020, 03:18 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad K View Post
My understanding is pitchers aren't programmed to have "bad days". A few innings bad performance is random. So leave him in until he can be hit for. If my understanding isn't correct I'd like to know.
This for sure. Just had a game yesterday where my best starter had a horrible first inning, giving up 5 runs, with the last three coming by way of a three run home run. I let him stay in and he went on to throw five shutout innings after that and left the game after the sixth inning with a 6-5 lead. He went on to be awarded with the win.
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Old 01-15-2020, 04:36 PM   #7
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Another vote for "it depends." How important is this particular game? How well rested is your pen? Do you have a long reliever or spot starter in there? When is your next off day?

I often suck it up and leave him in until the 4th if I can bear it.
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Old 01-16-2020, 08:11 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad K View Post
My understanding is pitchers aren't programmed to have "bad days". A few innings bad performance is random. So leave him in until he can be hit for. If my understanding isn't correct I'd like to know.
This.
If he is a bad pitcher and you have enough relievers, pull him. If he is the ace of your staff, leave him in, unless there is an OOTP reason he pitched poorly such as being exhausted, etc..
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Old 01-16-2020, 09:43 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad K View Post
My understanding is pitchers aren't programmed to have "bad days". A few innings bad performance is random. So leave him in until he can be hit for. If my understanding isn't correct I'd like to know.
They aren't programmed to have bad days but the results can indicate a bad day or as Dyzalot posted, a bad inning followed by a recovery of form.
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Old 01-16-2020, 04:43 PM   #10
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If they aren't programmed to have a bad day then a bad first inning has no effect on their performance in subsequent innings.
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Old 01-16-2020, 04:47 PM   #11
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I think I have had a few pitchers who have had a bad season. I don't think they were programmed for that either.

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Old 01-18-2020, 02:27 AM   #12
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If they aren't programmed to have a bad day then a bad first inning has no effect on their performance in subsequent innings.
On the contrary there is nothing to be learned from one bad inning or two or three. Make the pitching change or not.That's the managers job.
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Old 01-18-2020, 11:43 AM   #13
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Seems to me it depends upon whether you are playing to win a video game, or whether you are using OOTP to simulate being a real-life manager. As others have pointed out, as far as we know pitchers don't start the day with a "this is going to be a bad start" flag raised, so having a bad inning does not predict what the future innings will look like. So if you are playing to win at a video game, then leave him in.

However if you are trying to immerse yourself as a real-life manager, then I'd think you should be ready to pull him out much earlier, say if he gives up a couple more base runners in the next inning or two. Unless bullpen is in bad shape, most managers IRL won't leave a starter out there to get pounded.
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Old 01-18-2020, 02:20 PM   #14
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I wish it was easier to make different saves in this game.

Then it would be easy to test

When a starter has a bad first inning, save. Then simulate the rest of the game and see how those results compare to the pitcher's overall results

My guess would be that there would be no meaningful difference (other than maybe because of getting fatigued sooner because of a long first inning). But, I don't know, obviously

One could also do it the real life way

Look at all the starts where a pitcher has a bad first inning and compare their results in the rest of the game to their overall results.

That's be a lot of work. Especially to do it right
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Old 01-19-2020, 08:56 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gruber_Tagged_Him View Post
Seems to me it depends upon whether you are playing to win a video game, or whether you are using OOTP to simulate being a real-life manager. As others have pointed out, as far as we know pitchers don't start the day with a "this is going to be a bad start" flag raised, so having a bad inning does not predict what the future innings will look like. So if you are playing to win at a video game, then leave him in.

However if you are trying to immerse yourself as a real-life manager, then I'd think you should be ready to pull him out much earlier, say if he gives up a couple more base runners in the next inning or two. Unless bullpen is in bad shape, most managers IRL won't leave a starter out there to get pounded.

How can a person immerse themselves as a real life manager when the game is not set up to respond to real life like decisions?
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Old 02-19-2020, 11:35 AM   #16
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Context has alot to do with the situation.

Are you in the middle of the season or is this a playoff?

What kind of offense does YOUR team have? Will your team have a legitimate chance to score 4 or more runs or are you already behind the 8-ball?

How fatigued is your pitcher already? How fatigued is your bullpen? What is the record of the starting pitcher? Is he your ace?

Trust me, I've attended real life games where I've seen last years Cy Young winner get shelled in the first two innings and get pulled. Other times, I've seen Tito leave a starter in and he "rights the ship" and does fine going forward..

At the very least, if you use the bullpen option, I would at least get a long reliever warming up. If your starter does ok, going forward you can always sit the long man back down.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:17 PM   #17
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Its been established OOTP doesn't have a "bad day" feature. So any removal of a rested starting pitcher for a bad inning has no basis.

Well, people say, this is what they do in real life baseball. Maybe they shouldn't. After all, an inning is a small sample size. Who is to say it isn't just bad luck? Or maybe the team is playing on the road against the Astros.
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Old 02-20-2020, 11:39 AM   #18
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I agree there is not a "bad day" flag in the game but I do think there is a "snowball" effect. Note what the visit mound option in the manual says about calming the pitcher.

Quote:
Visit Mound The manager visits the pitcher on the mound. This option is usually used to try to calm down the pitcher if he has gotten in trouble. This option also helps use up some time if you are warming up a relief pitcher, and gives the manager a better idea of how tired his pitcher is
One can argue everything is random and ratings prevail. Those games where the opponent is scoring in each of the first three innings, they're hitting everything, and you just know it's going to be bad and ends up being a 17-2 drubbing. That 8 run inning you allow when you went into the inning up 5-3 and go out down 11-5. It's all random, leave the guy in his ratings will prevail...

But the mound visit option says it can be used to calm down a P in trouble. If that is true then being in trouble must have some influence on outcome. Maybe the P gets a "normal" K and gets his mind right without a visit, maybe after a visit he still gets shelled, maybe after a visit he gets a GB DP and gets out of the inning etc. etc. etc. I've had all of these outcomes and more and if, after a visit, the guy continues to get shelled he is coming out, I don't care what his ratings are ( this too can be dependent on context).

To the OP question, if it is the first inning then I'm doing everything in my power to try to get him through (of course context dependent as others have mentioned). A first inning change can destroy a bullpen for the next few days and I will try to avoid this if I can.

Last edited by Sweed; 02-20-2020 at 11:41 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old 02-20-2020, 09:36 PM   #19
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Some stuff is just for flavor and isn't nutritional Like the info on who's hot and who's not. And the idea a not programmed for a bad day pitcher gets upset when hammered.
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Old 02-20-2020, 09:39 PM   #20
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Maybe real life pitchers are pulled needlessly. So a guy is rested, feels good, has good velocity, good control, but is getting hammered, its still a super small sample. Why take him out even if the outfielders are tired?
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