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03-25-2019, 11:27 PM | #1 |
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Edited MLB Ballpark Factors for OOTP 20
Hey everyone. If you're anything like me, the "ritual" of setting up a new game/save can be pretty...well...ritualistic. There are so many things to check and consider and to try out. Jumping the gun and starting your "good save" before getting everything just so is best avoided. lol
One of the things I found worth tinkering with was ballpark factors. The standard game comes with some issues, I feel, in this regard. For one, some of the parks that are known to be band boxes (Guaranteed Rate Field, Oriole Park at Camden Yards...to name a couple) come with fairly low HR park factors, even less than average in some cases. Others that play quite large (Comerica Park, for example) can be off in the opposite sense. Another issue is the proliferation of "1.000" modifiers which I take to mean that they might not have much data to go on--for doubles and triples--rather than so many parks play exactly average to 3 decimal places. You'll notice that Chase Field, for example, is significantly underpowered in the XBH department compared to real life. Thirdly, I've never quite been able to determine this for sure, but the game might use "halved ballpark factors," which are what you'd use to neutralize a player that only plays half his games there. These "halved ballpark factors" are commonplace on websites like FanGraphs. Certainly, you wouldn't want to use "halved ballpark factors" for the stadium itself because it plays all of its games there. As for the methodology, I have relied heavily on a website called StatCorner. Most of the data collection and heavy lifting was already done for me thanks to this interesting website. I present you the explanation behind these data: http://www.statcorner.com/exp_HandedParkFactors.php Because StatCorner either gives you the option to do 2007-present or go year-by-year, I aggregated ballpark factors from 2017 and 2018 in a spreadsheet to split the difference between one season being not quite enough data (imo) and many older years maybe not being so relevant anymore. I feel that two years is a pretty significant slice of data (~36k plate appearances per park). These data are not halved. I also applied league average FB/GB rates along with park-specific rates in order to transform batting averages given on StatCorner as balls in the air or balls on the ground into one unified batting average. Of course, these data are broken down by splits because many parks play quite differently for lefty batters and righty batters. The potential exists within these data to break doubles and triples down by lefty and righty batter splits in the future, but the game doesn't yet have that option, fwiw. Yet. As for how to best represent the data, I'm gonna go old school and just type it right into this post. That way I don't have to worry about broken links/deleted spreadsheets etc. Apologies if this isn't your preferred format, but it's not a ton of work to do this data entry. BAL (Oriole Park at Camden Yards) AVG LHB: 0.999 AVG RHB: 0.997 Doubles: 0.878 Triples: 0.842 HR LHB: 1.070 HR RHB: 1.155 BOS (Fenway Park) AVG LHB: 1.155 AVG RHB: 1.125 Doubles: 1.248 Triples: 1.090 HR LHB: 0.770 HR RHB: 1.010 NYA (Yankee Stadium) AVG LHB: 0.915 AVG RHB: 1.002 Doubles: 0.894 Triples: 0.707 HR LHB: 1.372 HR RHB: 1.203 TBA (Tropicana Field) AVG LHB: 0.939 AVG RHB: 0.955 Doubles: 0.884 Triples: 1.104 HR LHB: 0.940 HR RHB: 0.950 TOR (Rogers Centre) AVG LHB: 1.046 AVG RHB: 1.014 Doubles: 1.129 Triples: 0.987 HR LHB: 0.980 HR RHB: 1.040 CHA (Guaranteed Rate Field) AVG LHB: 0.921 AVG RHB: 0.977 Doubles: 0.910 Triples: 0.905 HR LHB: 1.149 HR RHB: 1.095 CLE (Progressive Field) AVG LHB: 1.096 AVG RHB: 1.003 Doubles: 1.126 Triples: 0.719 HR LHB: 1.105 HR RHB: 0.985 DET (Comerica Park) AVG LHB: 0.993 AVG RHB: 1.056 Doubles: 0.990 Triples: 1.378 HR LHB: 0.959 HR RHB: 0.980 KCA (Kaufmann Stadium) AVG LHB: 1.088 AVG RHB: 1.024 Doubles: 1.114 Triples: 1.297 HR LHB: 0.820 HR RHB: 0.800 MIN (Target Field) AVG LHB: 1.037 AVG RHB: 1.070 Doubles: 1.073 Triples: 1.126 HR LHB: 0.971 HR RHB: 1.077 HOU (Minute Maid Park) AVG LHB: 0.950 AVG RHB: 0.941 Doubles: 0.895 Triples: 0.915 HR LHB: 1.051 HR RHB: 1.081 LAA (Angel Stadium of Anaheim) AVG LHB: 1.003 AVG RHB: 0.956 Doubles: 0.872 Triples: 0.751 HR LHB: 1.014 HR RHB: 1.065 OAK (Oakland Coliseum) AVG LHB: 0.969 AVG RHB: 0.991 Doubles: 1.051 Triples: 1.440 HR LHB: 0.884 HR RHB: 0.859 SEA (T-Mobile Park) AVG LHB: 0.936 AVG RHB: 0.947 Doubles: 0.920 Triples: 0.963 HR LHB: 1.051 HR RHB: 1.011 TEX (Globe Life Park in Arlington) AVG LHB: 1.093 AVG RHB: 1.095 Doubles: 1.093 Triples: 1.394 HR LHB: 1.109 HR RHB: 1.020 ATL (SunTrust Park) AVG LHB: 1.003 AVG RHB: 1.043 Doubles: 0.986 Triples: 0.787 HR LHB: 0.930 HR RHB: 0.840 MIA (Marlins Park) AVG LHB: 0.944 AVG RHB: 0.969 Doubles: 0.853 Triples: 0.955 HR LHB: 0.890 HR RHB: 0.744 NYN (Citi Field) AVG LHB: 0.920 AVG RHB: 0.865 Doubles: 0.861 Triples: 0.741 HR LHB: 0.930 HR RHB: 1.000 PHI (Citizens Bank Park) AVG LHB: 0.925 AVG RHB: 0.942 Doubles: 0.957 Triples: 0.963 HR LHB: 1.286 HR RHB: 1.330 WAS (Nationals Park) AVG LHB: 1.076 AVG RHB: 1.026 Doubles: 1.058 Triples: 0.713 HR LHB: 0.911 HR RHB: 1.110 CHN (Wrigley Field) AVG LHB: 1.022 AVG RHB: 0.987 Doubles: 1.026 Triples: 1.282 HR LHB: 0.840 HR RHB: 1.150 CIN (Great American Ball Park) AVG LHB: 0.918 AVG RHB: 0.926 Doubles: 1.056 Triples: 1.114 HR LHB: 1.241 HR RHB: 1.149 MIL (Miller Park) AVG LHB: 0.972 AVG RHB: 0.979 Doubles: 1.076 Triples: 0.941 HR LHB: 1.260 HR RHB: 1.040 PIT (PNC Park) AVG LHB: 1.031 AVG RHB: 1.057 Doubles: 1.030 Triples: 0.973 HR LHB: 0.991 HR RHB: 0.762 STL (Busch Stadium) AVG LHB: 0.997 AVG RHB: 1.016 Doubles: 0.927 Triples: 0.888 HR LHB: 0.980 HR RHB: 0.815 ARZ (Chase Field) AVG LHB: 1.097 AVG RHB: 1.023 Doubles: 1.164 Triples: 1.687 HR LHB: 1.009 HR RHB: 1.151 COL (Coors Field) AVG LHB: 1.182 AVG RHB: 1.166 Doubles: 1.245 Triples: 1.907 HR LHB: 1.160 HR RHB: 1.170 LAN (Dodger Stadium) AVG LHB: 0.964 AVG RHB: 0.993 Doubles: 1.001 Triples: 0.534 HR LHB: 1.155 HR RHB: 0.956 SDN (Petco Park) AVG LHB: 1.009 AVG RHB: 0.966 Doubles: 0.999 Triples: 1.049 HR LHB: 0.870 HR RHB: 0.955 SFN (Oracle Park) AVG LHB: 0.999 AVG RHB: 1.053 Doubles: 1.002 Triples: 1.251 HR LHB: 0.604 HR RHB: 0.750 |
06-15-2019, 07:20 AM | #2 |
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How have these turned out in the game? Have you noticed a difference?
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07-01-2019, 07:57 PM | #4 | |
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07-18-2019, 02:17 AM | #5 |
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I got around to running some sims with these custom ballpark factors. Here is the result. The bottom line summary is I think they work well and would recommend them to anyone that wants ballparks to play true to character.
The methodology Using the most updated OOTP build with standard rosters and LIVE player ratings. The only roster edit I made was to sideline both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for an equivalent period of time that they've missed in real life because I thought they could significantly alter the data set otherwise. Injuries were on and I left all settings at default. I input the custom ballpark factors from the OP and also set the in-game stat modifiers according to real life stats through July 7th. Then, I simmed to July 7th. I ran a total of 3 sims and averaged the data. In the sims, I ended up focusing on each home team's performance in its home ballpark in terms of: 2B/G, 3B/G, HR/G, R/G, and batting average. I then compiled the corresponding real life data through July 7th and compared it with the sims. Doubles per game I noticed right away the ballparks that perform as doubles havens bore that out in the sims. For example, you have Fenway Park (2.53 2B/G in sims vs 2.43 2B/G in the real life 2019 season), Coors Field (2.60 2B/G vs 2.47 2B/G), PNC Park (2.45 2B/G vs 2.30 2B/G) all playing pretty true to form. The average percent difference for all 30 parks was 13%. In other words, the difference was about as big as the difference between 70 and 80 doubles per park per half-season. Given the relatively small data set (3 sims) and the difficulty of predicting 2019 stats from prior data in the first place, I thought it was a good result overall. I'm not seeking perfect statistical fidelity anyway, but I just want the ballparks to play to their real life character. Triples per game Triples are among the most rare occurrences in baseball and it makes a good deal of sense that the percent difference was the highest among all stats recorded at about 48%. In other words, the difference was about as big as a park having 6 triples vs 9 triples in a half-season of play. Even so, I was heartened to see parks that are known for triples being among the best triple-producers: Kauffman Stadium (0.46 3B/G in sims vs 0.32 3B/G in the real life 2019 season), Wrigley Field (0.22 3B/G vs 0.24 3B/G), Chase Field (0.32 3B/G vs 0.24 3B/G), Coors Field (0.39 3B/G vs 0.44 3B/G), Oracle Park (0.19 3B/G vs 0.22 3B/G). Another thing that you can notice is the deviations aren't all in the same direction, which I think is a good thing--meaning the source of the variation is probably statistical noise (injuries, random number fluctuations etc) rather than an underlying systematic error in the park factors. Coors Field underperformed despite a robust 1.907 ballpark factor for triples. Kauffman Stadium overperformed, even with a much lower 1.297 ballpark factor for triples. Home runs per game With the sudden upward trajectory in homers in real life due to juiced balls and other factors, I really didn't know what to expect here. That said, the percent difference when considering all 30 parks was pretty much in line with doubles, at 14%. In other words, the difference was about as big as a park producing 80 homers vs 70 homers per team per half-season. The biggest deviants on the too many HR side were: (oddly) Comerica Park (+52%), Guaranteed Rate Field (+34%), Yankee Stadium (+34%), Chase Field (+30%), Citizens Bank Park (+20%). On the too few HR side: SunTrust Park (-34%), Citi Field (-22%), Oakland Coliseum (-20%), Rogers Centre (-16%). Interestingly, it seems there is a bit more correlation here between the direction of the variance and the type of park factor. The positive outliers above (except for the Tigers) all have favorable ballpark factors for home runs; the negative outliers (except for the Blue Jays) have homer-suppressing park factors. My suspicion is that the SunTrust Park factors are somewhat suspect because there wasn't a lot of historical data to base that on and the Braves have swung from extreme rebuild to having a potent offense in a short period of time. An extreme rash of injuries in real life may provide some explanation for why the Yankees hit more home runs in sims, but remember that Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were accounted for by deactivating them both. There may be something a bit off in a systematic way, but, in any case, most of the deviations (for both homer-friendly and homer-unfriendly parks) are pretty small and somewhat random: Dodger Stadium (+1.7%), Marlins Park (+1.2%), Fenway Park (-4.5%), Kauffman Stadium (+4.5%), Great American Ball Park (-0.6%), Miller Park (+6.8%), PNC Park (-4.7%), Petco Park (+5.1%), Oracle Park (-9.8%), Busch Stadium (+12.5%). Runs per game As one might expect, given that runs are more common occurrences than doubles, triples, or home runs, the data were more robust here probably due to sample size. The average percent difference was about 9%. The simulated teams that outscored their real life counterparts by the most: Padres (+32%), Tigers (+27%), Indians (+19%), Giants (+16%), D'Backs (+15%), and Blue Jays (+13%). This list mostly reads like a list of doormat teams in 2019 rather than having anything to do with ballpark factors. Most of these teams have offense-lowering ballpark factors so that wouldn't explain these offensive explosions. My hunch is that OOTP's ratings aren't properly capturing just how putrid some of these teams really are this year, so they tend to do better in the sims. Teams that are doing significantly worse than their real life counterparts: Mets (-24%), Braves (-14%), Mariners (-13%), A's (-12%), Marlins (-11%), Rays (-10%), Rockies (-9%). Again, looks like a mixed bag with deviations not having a correlation to ballpark factors. Batting average The last stat I'll mention here is batting average. This was the most well-reproduced item in the sims judging by the 6% difference versus real life. There was no difference for any of the teams greater than 15%. Both the Giants and Blue Jays were +15% despite relatively neutral ballpark factors. The Padres were +14%. Once again, it appears that there's no systematic errors going on and these deviations are due to statistical noise. Overall The authentic modifiers from the 2019 season held up pretty well. Summing up all of the stats mentioned for the simmed results across all 30 teams: 50.86 2B/G, 5.02 3B/G, 40.63 HR/G, 140.6 R/G, .255 AVG, .328 OBP. Doing the same for the 2019 real life data: 49.69 2B/G, 4.76 3B/G, 39.02 HR/G, 138.8 R/G, .254 AVG, .326 OBP. The sims were just a tiny touch more offense-friendly, but I'd hesitate to lend that significance with only 3 sims and with the differences being so small.
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Last edited by waittilnextyear; 07-18-2019 at 02:23 AM. |
02-28-2020, 01:17 PM | #6 |
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Cool. I go to an ESPN page to check park factors. They have a very simple year-by-year page comparing each park in Runs, HR, Hits, Doubles, Triples AND Bases on Balls.
As you noted, these vary quite a bit sometimes year-to-year, but I suppose if the default park factors are way off they just didn't have the time or something...and counted to some degree on the baseball fanatics to fill them in if they wanted to customize. I would have done just what you did. In fact I would have considered each park's changes (some of them remain the same, some make some pretty major changes)...& at least a 3 year sort of examination of the park we're dealing with. For a brand new park I would fill in numbers after 50 games... But hopefully in OOTP 21 these are approximately accurate for each park. Pretty basic part of saber/analysis study. |
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