Will rapid player dropoffs be a thing of the past?

[vegaspomeranians]

Will we see a more gradual decline in players instead of players falling off the face of the earth. I can't stand it when I see pitchers lose 8 mph of velocity in a season. That is just unrealistic in the real world when 1 mph is what really happens and that is still a big deal to the pitchers.

[bwburke94]

For every Jamie Moyer, there's a Rick Ankiel. I wouldn't expect rapid dropoffs to entirely disappear.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by vegaspomeranians

Will we see a more gradual decline in players instead of players falling off the face of the earth. I can't stand it when I see pitchers lose 8 mph of velocity in a season. That is just unrealistic in the real world when 1 mph is what really happens and that is still a big deal to the pitchers.

With ZiPS you certainly should see a more realistic decline.

[Habsfan18]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

With ZiPS you certainly should see a more realistic decline.

But wouldn't ZiPS only impact the official rosters, and not fictional?

Either way though, it sounds like career arcs (player development?) have been improved. Looking forward to hearing more info.

[The Wolf]

How are fantasy baseball projections calculated and how best to use them

[RchW]

Rapid dropoffs are rare but realistic and necessary.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by RchW

Rapid dropoffs are rare but realistic and necessary.

This.

[NYYANKS98]

I've noticed a lot of times when guys drop off quick it's followed shortly after by major injuries. I always assume that they were injured beforehand and played through it until it became a major, career altering injury.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by RchW

Rapid dropoffs are rare but realistic and necessary.

But the key word here ought to be "rare." Realistically, there shouldn't be more than 2-3 rapid dropoffs in the entire organization over a calendar year. I'm seeing closer to 10-15, which are unrealistic and unnecessary.

Numerous small drop-offs (and improvements) are realistic, the rapid ones happen far too often to be realistic.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

But the key word here ought to be "rare." Realistically, there shouldn't be more than 2-3 rapid dropoffs in the entire organization over a calendar year. I'm seeing closer to 10-15, which are unrealistic and unnecessary.

Numerous small drop-offs (and improvements) are realistic, the rapid ones happen far too often to be realistic.

Maybe you just got unlucky. In our tests the numbers compare very well to real life.

[phillyboy19]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Maybe you just got unlucky. In our tests the numbers compare very well to real life.

I understand what you're saying,but like in ootp 16 it seemed like the same players everytime. Examples are Chris Archer and Cole Hamels. Im annoyed about Hamels who still should have like 2-4 really good seasons left at least before he starts a gradual decline, but Archer is like why cuz he's in his mid 20's.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

With ZiPS you certainly should see a more realistic decline.

Welcome back!

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by phillyboy19

I understand what you're saying,but like in ootp 16 it seemed like the same players everytime. Examples are Chris Archer and Cole Hamels. Im annoyed about Hamels who still should have like 2-4 really good seasons left at least before he starts a gradual decline, but Archer is like why cuz he's in his mid 20's.

There shouldn't be anything about those specific players that will cause them to dropoff every time you play. It really must've just been bad luck.

We did have Archer a little underrated in the first few versions of the game, if your careers were based on those builds he likely just had less margin for error.

As for a Hamels, you may think he has 2-4 years left now, but that's basically an absolute best case scenario, very unlikely. I guess I'm not even sure what you'd base that prediction on? Guys like him do drop off a cliff all the time irl. The decline is not always gradual. In fact you can make a good argument his decline has already begun, as in two of the last three seasons he's basically been only slightly above league average with a 104 ERA+ in 2013 and a 112 ERA+ last year. Solid but not even close to great numbers, though his 2014 was beyond incredible.

How many good years would most folks have thought Jered Weaver, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum had left a couple years ago? Or Roy Halladay after 2011? Barry Zito after 2006?

A lot more than they actually did, that's for sure.

Returning to Archer, guys in their mid-20 also flame out all the time after a few good seasons irl. Mark Prior, Mark Fydrich, Dwight Gooden, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, Scott Kazmir (though he eventually bounced back, it was a long road) Josh Johnson, Rich Harden etc.

[phillyboy19]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

There shouldn't be anything about those specific players that will cause them to dropoff every time you play. It really must've just been bad luck.

We did have Archer a little underrated in the first few versions of the game, if your careers were based on those builds he likely just had less margin for error.

As for a Hamels, you may think he has 2-4 years left now, but that's basically an absolute best case scenario, very unlikely. I guess I'm not even sure what you'd base that prediction on? Guys like him do drop off a cliff all the time irl. The decline is not always gradual. In fact you can make a good argument his decline has already begun, as in two of the last three seasons he's basically been only slightly above league average with a 104 ERA+ in 2013 and a 112 ERA+ last year. Solid but not even close to great numbers, though his 2014 was beyond incredible.

How many good years would most folks have thought Jered Weaver, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum had left a couple years ago? Or Roy Halladay after 2011? Barry Zito after 2006?

A lot more than they actually did, that's for sure.

Returning to Archer, guys in their mid-20 also flame out all the time after a few good seasons irl. Mark Prior, Mark Fydrich, Dwight Gooden, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, Scott Kazmir (though he eventually bounced back, it was a long road) Josh Johnson, Rich Harden etc.

I understand what you're saying but whenever I play in like a season and a half Hamels goes from a 4 and a half star to like a half star, and that's extremely drastic. Im not saying no to a 3.5 or 4 star season in year 2 but that much of a drop is unrealistic. Archer is basically the same except he doesn't start dropping until year 2. A lot of those guys you mentioned were because of injury or age (Halladay was like 35 I believe in 2012), so that isn't a great argument on those guys. Although with pitchers like Hanson and Cahil for example you are absolutly right.