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Old 10-16-2019, 10:11 AM   #1
Hertston
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MLB Live cards... something needs to be done?

Another whine from the forum newb.. sorry! But....

Brief disclaimer; my only PT team was set up on a 'pre 1950' theme right back in silver (and has been ever since) just because I thought it would be fun and long before I gained any understanding of how Perfect/Diamond was working.

Anyway, last night I checked the auctions right after turning off another Cardinals first innings disaster in disgust (well done, Nationals BTW) I saw, amongst several others almost as bad, 2 copies of the Walker Beuhler (95) card on offer starting at 4,000 with a buy now of 8,000. As you've gathered from the last para I had no use for Walt, despite great SP stats, other than market games I really have no interest in playing, but I tagged anyway out of interest. They went for 4,000 and 4,005. Now... with the higher value 'historic' cards largely stagnant due to people holding out for what, IMHO, are usually unrealistic prices in an overvalued market, is that not.. well, just bloody ridiculous? It's not as if Walt was the only one.

No whine without a floated solution, so I'll throw a couple of things out there that might (?) help re-balance things.

a) keep re-valuation of live cards, regardless of whatever Sabermetric wonderments OOTP actually uses, WITHIN the same cost band, at least until every new version of the game is released. One exception.. upwards, only, where a rookie proves much more valuable than even his team expected.

b) Get rid, totally, of average and most-ever sales information on each card. I know why it's there, but all it does is fix 'historics' prices at unrealistic levels just because somebody with loadsa PP particularly wanted a particular card nobody else would pay as much for, locking everything up. Meanwhile, the information is effectively worthless for live cards except as a way of identifying the odd iron card 'worth' a lot more than usual because it's needed to (help) complete a collection. Push players into judging the merits of a card based on it's stats, or even 'sell now' value, not largely worthless and distorting information. Yes, I get the whole 'play as I want to' thing, but I draw a line when that spoils the fun for everybody else, unwitting or not.

Rant over.. sorry . Hi y'all from across the Pond, btw.
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Last edited by Hertston; 10-16-2019 at 10:16 AM. Reason: Self inflicted grammar Nazi..
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Old 10-16-2019, 10:55 AM   #2
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The sales information on cards are complete lies and the fact that valuable cards don't update correctly punishes inexperienced players.

Someone active on the marketplace will find cards like the OAK/CLE diamonds that get listed by out of the loop players at the false "averages" around 10K, buy them within minutes, then sell them for 30K to 50K. I've bought Earl Averills by being around at the right time for just 8K and flipped them for 100K later that day without the stats changing.
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Old 10-16-2019, 11:32 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkgo View Post
The sales information on cards are complete lies and the fact that valuable cards don't update correctly punishes inexperienced players.

Someone active on the marketplace will find cards like the OAK/CLE diamonds that get listed by out of the loop players at the false "averages" around 10K, buy them within minutes, then sell them for 30K to 50K. I've bought Earl Averills by being around at the right time for just 8K and flipped them for 100K later that day without the stats changing.
If this is accurate I’ve probably lost many thousands in potential points by relying on the average sales info. Extremely disappointing
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Old 10-16-2019, 11:44 AM   #4
dkgo
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Possibly depending on what cards they are

In general if I open a new gold/diamond historical card I will search for it on the market to see what other copies are going for. If there are none then I will put it up for a day starting at double the listed average with no BIN. If it doesn't sell then I will list starting at the average with a BIN at double. If that doesn't sell then I know the average is close to right and will keep listing around there.

That said I only open the free challenge packs and missions rewards so it is very rare that I get a historical valuable card. If you open a lot of packs this might be too time consuming and you are safer just listing with no BIN starting a bit below the average. You will lose out on some potential from the impulse buyers but you'll never end up too badly just letting people bid to the market price.

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Old 10-16-2019, 02:42 PM   #5
Hertston
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Originally Posted by dkgo View Post
In general if I open a new gold/diamond historical card I will search for it on the market to see what other copies are going for. If there are none then I will put it up for a day starting at double the listed average with no BIN. If it doesn't sell then I will list starting at the average with a BIN at double. If that doesn't sell then I know the average is close to right and will keep listing around there.
The point I was trying to make is that, with historic diamond (and indeed perfect) cards in particular, the 7-day price isn't 'what other copies are going for'; the volume of transactions is far too small to assess that. It's what one or two people, in all likelihood having accumulated more PPs than they know what to do with, have paid. Consequently, setting and leaving the sale price based on that figure won't attract any attention until, or if, someone similar comes along. Meanwhile, potential buyers who might pull the trigger at, say, 30% less are lost and the card just sits there of no use to anybody.

Regarding yours which I quoted, that seems a reasonable enough method until the last sentence. I don't see how you can possibly conclude 'the average is close to right' until the card actually sells? The ideal is a price which attracts bids and some competition between buyers to increase the final price on your base, and until you get that you won't get the optimum price in the prevailing market. BIN is there for those desperate to get the card and, IMHO, becomes less relevant into gold and beyond as buyers are happier to play the long game and wait.
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Old 10-16-2019, 03:06 PM   #6
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You are wrong about what the issue is. 7-day averages do NOT get driven up by one or two over-priced sales. The problem is that for some cards the averages literally do not change despite the actual market value shooting up from collection missions.
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Old 10-16-2019, 04:27 PM   #7
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The 7-day average is not an average--it is a median. This was changed in 19, but the wording STILL has not been updated. That's way the "average" doesn't move: because 1 low sale offsets the high sale and the median stays the same. Instead of this, maybe the last 5 or 7 sales should be listed, at least for diamonds and above. (How much in-house testing does it take to change AVG to MED?)
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Old 10-16-2019, 04:36 PM   #8
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I know it's a median.

I'm telling you, I've watched the auction house intensely for weeks and saw copy after copy after copy of bottleneck mission cards sell for 5 to 10 times the "Last 7" and it just never moves for some of them. My working theory is that some algorithm is incorrectly flagging those sales as fraudulent. Maybe the all-time median has enough data points for that to be possible (even though I highly doubt so many sold at the exact same price to keep it fixed) but unless someone is listing a dozen copies in the middle of the night at exactly the last 7 then it is bugged.
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Old 10-16-2019, 04:59 PM   #9
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If you have sales of 9000 9000 100000 9000 100000 isn't the median still 9000? I'm not saying you are wrong, but what also doesn't work is the all-time high. I've sold many cards higher than the all-time high which doesn't change. Here is a recent example:

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Old 10-16-2019, 05:16 PM   #10
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Quote:
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I know it's a median.

I'm telling you, I've watched the auction house intensely for weeks and saw copy after copy after copy of bottleneck mission cards sell for 5 to 10 times the "Last 7" and it just never moves for some of them. My working theory is that some algorithm is incorrectly flagging those sales as fraudulent. Maybe the all-time median has enough data points for that to be possible (even though I highly doubt so many sold at the exact same price to keep it fixed) but unless someone is listing a dozen copies in the middle of the night at exactly the last 7 then it is bugged.
This is actually best illustrated by some of the live cards. There's a thread in the bugs forum where cards that were diamond for weeks still show last week average well under 4K. That's simply not possible.
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Old 10-16-2019, 05:44 PM   #11
bailey
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Or how about this one? I can see the last 7 being 5K, but all time?? really???

Never mind---maybe the price is reflective of when he was a diamond card.
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Old 10-16-2019, 07:15 PM   #12
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Perhaps instead of the median, they could list the price the card went for for the last 20 (arbitrary number, could be anything) transactions on that card. That would be a list that would not require any calculations so the chance of the formula not working as intended as we've seen here at times is nill.
Of course people whose main avenue to make PP is to work the market a lot might not like that as much, but I think it would probably resolve the issue.
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Old 10-17-2019, 12:41 AM   #13
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I never played PT19, but apparently in that version it was the Last 7 Transactions, rather than the Last 7 Days. I think the former is a better system.

dkgo is right that a lot of the cards have totally false values for the selling average. Gold Reggie Jackson has been reliably going for 10k-20k PP for weeks now, but last I checked his average was still 2,000 PP.
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Old 10-17-2019, 02:09 PM   #14
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I would favor getting rid of the historical sales figures entirely. It's not needed and would result in a much more challenging game.
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Old 10-17-2019, 05:22 PM   #15
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Whatever's going on, it definitely needs changed.
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Old 10-17-2019, 08:28 PM   #16
GlassGuyBob
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It seems like they changed the L7 and all time price information in response to the high prices from collections. I dont know if this was an effort to keep prices reasonable or what, but it's a big problem that this information is extremely incorrect.
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Old 10-17-2019, 08:42 PM   #17
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I would favor getting rid of the historical sales figures entirely. It's not needed and would result in a much more challenging game.
No historical sales figures is better than the current grossly inaccurate figures.
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