Likelihood of Individual Pitch Increasing?

Timeless · 08-06-2017, 10:08 AM

Sorry if this has been covered; I have tried to search multiple times using various terms but haven't found a topic directly on-point.

The specific question is: you have a player in the draft pool. He has two good pitches that are already well established and should be MLB worthy in a few years.

However, he has a 20 rating for a third pitch but a potential of 70 in that pitch.

I understand his INT has the most bearing on development of that, but is there any data out there as far as the odds of a given pitch raising from 20 to, say, 55? What are the chances -- statistical odds -- of that third pitch at least becoming serviceable so that the guy projects as a SP and not a RP?

Many thanks in advance for any insight.

ThePretender · 08-06-2017, 10:21 AM

Depends on the type of pitch as well. Certain pitches are less likely to develop than others.

Without knowing age of player and the 20/70 pitch, I'd say avoid the player unless it's to draft as a RP. But if the player is 18 and not one of the pitch types that struggles to develop you could justify taking him.

Timeless · 08-06-2017, 12:12 PM

The guy in question is 20 years old, the pitch is a changeup. Current rating with it is 25, potential 90. I doubt he or anyone else will see 90, but would 60 be good? Sure. I'd take that. So really, just wondering what his odds are of getting to 60 in 5 years. Is it 10%, 50%, etc. Just curious if these stats have been run by anyone.

FWIWI He's already 49/80 fastball and 42/80 cutter.

endgame · 08-06-2017, 12:20 PM

Do you use coaching?

azepeda · 08-06-2017, 12:32 PM

The lower the overall rating of a pitch, as opposed to potential rating, when drafting, the less likely it is to develop. For example, I use the 20-80 scale on a player.

Player 1 78 potential, three pitches 40/80 fastball 40/80 curveball 1/80 slider

Player 2 76 potential, three pitches 4080 fastball 40/80 curveball 20/60 slider

player 1 will rarely develop that third pitch, player 2 will most likely develop that third pitch to it's full potential. I would pick the 2nd pitcher every time in the above scenario. The Work Ethic and Intelligence of a player can help or hinder development also.

Timeless · 08-06-2017, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by endgame

Do you use coaching?

Yes -- we have pitching coaches, bench coaches, etc.

NoOne · 08-06-2017, 03:01 PM

assuming accurate scouting, a pitch that is severely on the low side of the scale is not likely to develop at all.

more than likely they will be 2-pitch pitchers... or however fewer that are so poorly rated.

a 17-18 y.o. with all low pitches is a bit different than a 'younger' guy that's been around a year or 2... the moment you see it remain stagnant while other ratings increase, it's probably not catching up.

Bluenoser · 08-06-2017, 04:52 PM

I hear "probably won't, or not likely to" develop that pitch.

This is what I would do - you say you just drafted him. I'd put him in my minors and use him as a starter him immediately - (force start). Let him start for a while and see if it develops. If it doesn't, still plenty of time to make him a solid reliever. If it does, then gr8.

The point is - "not likely to and probably won't" are a very poor way of looking at it. You never know what a prospect will do. You have plenty of time to find out - so find out. It costs you nothing and it could pay off. Those kind of gambles worth taking.

'94 EXPOS · 08-07-2017, 09:18 AM

From my general experience: the odds of the pitch developing as you have described it are about equal to the odds of a prospect making it to the show. I have had a player with similar ratings develop that 3rd pitch and become an ace. I have had 20 other or so similar pitchers either flame out or become relievers.

I still covet such pitchers as I am not opposed to running 2 pitch starters out there for my 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Good pitchers can pull it off (usually their shelf life as a starter is fairly limited though: half season to 2 seasons).

08-06-2017, 10:08 AM	#1
Timeless Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Wilmington, North Carolina Posts: 27	Likelihood of Individual Pitch Increasing? Sorry if this has been covered; I have tried to search multiple times using various terms but haven't found a topic directly on-point. The specific question is: you have a player in the draft pool. He has two good pitches that are already well established and should be MLB worthy in a few years. However, he has a 20 rating for a third pitch but a potential of 70 in that pitch. I understand his INT has the most bearing on development of that, but is there any data out there as far as the odds of a given pitch raising from 20 to, say, 55? What are the chances -- statistical odds -- of that third pitch at least becoming serviceable so that the guy projects as a SP and not a RP? Many thanks in advance for any insight.

08-06-2017, 12:20 PM	#4
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,843	Do you use coaching? __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________

08-06-2017, 10:21 AM	#2
ThePretender All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,303	Depends on the type of pitch as well. Certain pitches are less likely to develop than others. Without knowing age of player and the 20/70 pitch, I'd say avoid the player unless it's to draft as a RP. But if the player is 18 and not one of the pitch types that struggles to develop you could justify taking him.

08-06-2017, 12:12 PM	#3
Timeless Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Wilmington, North Carolina Posts: 27	The guy in question is 20 years old, the pitch is a changeup. Current rating with it is 25, potential 90. I doubt he or anyone else will see 90, but would 60 be good? Sure. I'd take that. So really, just wondering what his odds are of getting to 60 in 5 years. Is it 10%, 50%, etc. Just curious if these stats have been run by anyone. FWIWI He's already 49/80 fastball and 42/80 cutter.

08-06-2017, 12:32 PM	#5
azepeda Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 151	The lower the overall rating of a pitch, as opposed to potential rating, when drafting, the less likely it is to develop. For example, I use the 20-80 scale on a player. Player 1 78 potential, three pitches 40/80 fastball 40/80 curveball 1/80 slider Player 2 76 potential, three pitches 4080 fastball 40/80 curveball 20/60 slider player 1 will rarely develop that third pitch, player 2 will most likely develop that third pitch to it's full potential. I would pick the 2nd pitcher every time in the above scenario. The Work Ethic and Intelligence of a player can help or hinder development also.

08-06-2017, 03:01 PM	#7
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	assuming accurate scouting, a pitch that is severely on the low side of the scale is not likely to develop at all. more than likely they will be 2-pitch pitchers... or however fewer that are so poorly rated. a 17-18 y.o. with all low pitches is a bit different than a 'younger' guy that's been around a year or 2... the moment you see it remain stagnant while other ratings increase, it's probably not catching up.

08-06-2017, 04:52 PM	#8
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 13,683	I hear "probably won't, or not likely to" develop that pitch. This is what I would do - you say you just drafted him. I'd put him in my minors and use him as a starter him immediately - (force start). Let him start for a while and see if it develops. If it doesn't, still plenty of time to make him a solid reliever. If it does, then gr8. The point is - "not likely to and probably won't" are a very poor way of looking at it. You never know what a prospect will do. You have plenty of time to find out - so find out. It costs you nothing and it could pay off. Those kind of gambles worth taking.

08-07-2017, 09:18 AM	#9
'94 EXPOS Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 311	From my general experience: the odds of the pitch developing as you have described it are about equal to the odds of a prospect making it to the show. I have had a player with similar ratings develop that 3rd pitch and become an ace. I have had 20 other or so similar pitchers either flame out or become relievers. I still covet such pitchers as I am not opposed to running 2 pitch starters out there for my 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Good pitchers can pull it off (usually their shelf life as a starter is fairly limited though: half season to 2 seasons).