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Old 03-01-2020, 09:25 AM   #1
Ragnar
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The Johnnie Walker Blue isn't working

A spinoff thread, yeah, but the owner of the Dallas Cowboys kind of reminded me of poor decisions.

Owner Jerry Jones is about to pay this average QB, Dak Prescott, Russel Wilson money. Everything points to him giving in. But I guess that's part of the reason the Cowboys have been largely irrelevant for the past two and a half decades plus. For the life of me I can't understand what he sees in this quarterback.

Anyone else see something I don't? Maybe someone looking at it from the outside has better insight? What am I missing?
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Old 03-01-2020, 10:25 AM   #2
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He's looked pretty darned impressive against my Giants the past three seasons (6-0), but I guess that's not saying much.
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Old 03-01-2020, 11:14 AM   #3
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That's the QB market these days. He ain't worth Russell Wilson money. As you've mentioned before, you don't need a superstar at QB to reach the SB. But you do need a decent QB. And there are only about 15 out there, IMO. And Dak is one of them. JJ had an advantage when he had a QB of Dak's caliber on the cheap. He could have prevented this by rewarding early a player who, @ the time, was playing for way less salary than he was worth. But now he is going to have to bite the bullet. Otherwise, if he is going to replace Dak, he will still have to overpay for someone like Tanneyhill or Bridgewater. So he has the rock on his right and the hard place on his left.
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Old 03-01-2020, 02:31 PM   #4
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Solid QBs are rare. Have one? Pay him.


I have been a Dallas fan since Walt Garrison was rumbling around and will be really upset if they don't get a deal done. Aside from Dak's obvious talent, I haven't personally liked a Cowboy QB this much since Staubach.
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Old 03-01-2020, 03:10 PM   #5
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He's great against bad teams, inconsistent against good teams

If you look at his statistical splits vs sub-.500 teams as opposed to .500+ teams, you see clear distinctions. I haven't looked to see what the typical statistical distinctions are for QBs in good vs bad teams since I assume the same can be said of the best QBs, but the TD/INT split is Very distinct

Vs Bad:
199/297 (67%), 2536 yds (8.5/att), 20 TD to 3 INT, 111.7 QB Rating, 76.5 average QBR, 6-2 Record

Vs Good:
189/299, (63.2%), 2366 yds (7.9/att), 10 TD to 8 INT, 87.7 QB Rating, 57.6 average QBR, 2-6 Record


I doubt the Comp% and Y/A dip are too far outside normal (again, haven't checked cause I just can't be bothered), but half as many TDs with 3x the picks is a massive performance spike. I assume those games are the ones that Cowboy fans remember and why some would be questioning him overall

If you dig a bit deeper though then you'd notice that he had 2 distinctly good performances against good teams (vs Min & LAR, both at home). If we remove those 2 games then his numbers against good teams look like this:

146/230 (63.4%), 1757 yds (7.6/att), 5 TDs to 7 INTs, 81.4 QB Rating & 48.3 Average QBR, 1-5 Record


Yes, that totally counts as cherry picking data by throwing out the 2 good games against 2 teams, but I'm betting those 6 games are the performances that most Cowboy fans remember most clearly and I'd be willing to bet that Ragnar is one of those. Add in the fact that a decent chunk of those yards, completions & TDs that are left against good teams came after Dallas was already getting thumped by Buf & GB and the outlook only looks dimmer against good teams

He has a great O-line with weapons around him and a decent defense (held 3 of those 6 good teams they lost to to under 20 points), but from the few Cowboys games I did see also had a lot of questionable coaching, so maybe they should get some of that blame also (I only watch RedZone on Sunday afternoons, so typically only see specific games on Sun or Mon night)

But the general point of my reply is that the 3 numbers that most look at for QBs (TDs, INTs, Ws) were all heavily skewed when he played good teams. Whether those are the 3 numbers that should be looked at, how much credit/blame QBs should get for those numbers, sample sizes, coaching, yada yada .... who knows

But the average fan is going to remember the high profile losses at the end of the season to NE, BUF & PHI over the 5 wins against atrocious teams like WSH, NYG & MIA. And what they saw in those losses to the good teams was a QB that looked closer to Andy Dalton than Russel Wilson



Addendum: For what it's worth, I personally think Ws for a QB is as silly as Ws for a pitcher in so far as Ws themselves can't reveal how well/poor they performed and needs a lot of other stats to show said level of performance, but since they're generally still weighted heavily by most when regarding QB performance, it would be silly of me not to list W-L records

Last edited by ezpkns34; 03-01-2020 at 03:11 PM. Reason: grammar nazi-ed myself
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:41 PM   #6
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He's great against bad teams, inconsistent against good teams
In his career he is 10-14 against playoff teams. He pretty much plays to the talent level of his team. Good post overall though. And yeah, coaching played a role. I just don't know how much.

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That's the QB market these days. He ain't worth Russell Wilson money. As you've mentioned before, you don't need a superstar at QB to reach the SB. But you do need a decent QB. And there are only about 15 out there, IMO. And Dak is one of them. JJ had an advantage when he had a QB of Dak's caliber on the cheap. He could have prevented this by rewarding early a player who, @ the time, was playing for way less salary than he was worth. But now he is going to have to bite the bullet. Otherwise, if he is going to replace Dak, he will still have to overpay for someone like Tanneyhill or Bridgewater. So he has the rock on his right and the hard place on his left.
Dak may be one of them, but they limped to an 8-8 record with him last year, and now they're looking at losing talent to pay him. I just don't think his skills are worth the cap hit.

The Cowboys could retain their talent and draft a QB. What's the worst that can happen? They go 8-8? At least they won't have that cap hit along with it.

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Old 03-01-2020, 10:48 PM   #7
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Dak may be one of them, but they limped to an 8-8 record with him last year, and now they're looking at losing talent to pay him. I just don't think his skills are worth the cap hit.

The Cowboys could retain their talent and draft a QB. What's the worst that can happen? They go 8-8? At least they won't have that cap hit along with it.

The teams that make the Super Bowl lately are teams with QBs still on rookie contracts or the Pats (most definitely in large part due to being able to pay Brady well below market value for much of his career). That description counts for 5 of the last 6 SB teams and 6 of the last 8 (Matt Ryan and Jimmy G being the exceptions, so seems Kyle Shanahan should get a bit of credit being involved with both). So, there is an argument that they should gamble in the draft like you said
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Old 03-02-2020, 01:14 AM   #8
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Dak may be one of them, but they limped to an 8-8 record with him last year, and now they're looking at losing talent to pay him. I just don't think his skills are worth the cap hit.

The Cowboys could retain their talent and draft a QB. What's the worst that can happen? They go 8-8? At least they won't have that cap hit along with it.
Worse that could happen is they finish with a worse record, the QB they draft is given 2-3 yrs to find out he is not going to be an NFL level player and the Cowboys are hoping someone pans out in the draft in 2022/23. All that talent they retained is then too old and decrepit JJ has to watch the season in hospice care.

There are no guarantees with either method. But in my opinion, having a QB U know is going to be behind center the next 5 seasons is one the most valuable assets U can have in the NFL. It makes your next moves and decisions that much easier and more focused. How many great, needed, useful players in the draft were passed over because a team picked a dud at QB? Because they were afraid to possibly let a potential starter at QB
pass by? Teams chase and chase for that elusive thrower at the expense of other areas of the team. Knowing that spot is taken care of frees your mind to look elsewhere.

Supply and demand. Dak's got JJ by the balls. He should have been taken care of last season.
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Old 03-02-2020, 09:52 AM   #9
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Dak may be one of them, but they limped to an 8-8 record with him last year, and now they're looking at losing talent to pay him. I just don't think his skills are worth the cap hit.
They'll lose out on some talent because of Dak's cap hit, sure, but what's really setting them up for failure is the money they're paying Zeke. You just can't justify paying a running back $10mil+ per year when analytics have thoroughly proven that blocking plays a bigger hand in RB success than the RBs, as well as the fact that there are at least 50 guys out there that reach the threshold of talent and athleticism to take enough advantage of their blocking to be successful.

The good news for Dallas is that they got La'el Collins re-signed right before his breakout this season. But once Dak and Amari are brought back, the Cowboys are gonna have so much money dedicated to the offense that their defense will suffer (and in this case, they'd probably have to let Byron Jones walk, for starters).
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:10 AM   #10
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But once Dak and Amari are brought back, the Cowboys are gonna have so much money dedicated to the offense that their defense will suffer (and in this case, they'd probably have to let Byron Jones walk, for starters).
I wouldn't sign Amari. If ever there was a time & position to let a vet go and pick up something in the draft, it is this year @ WR. There are about 5 or 6 wideouts this year that most seasons would be the easy 1st WR selected in the draft.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:14 AM   #11
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I wouldn't sign Amari. If ever there was a time & position to let a vet go and pick up something in the draft, it is this year @ WR. There are about 5 or 6 wideouts this year that most seasons would be the easy 1st WR selected in the draft.
While that's true, Amari is a legit, borderline-#1 receiver (although he can give up on plays sometimes) and they traded a first for him. They should have saved the Zeke money for him instead.

Dallas should definitely go safety in the first round but this draft is incredible at receiver, they could get a Mims or a Shenault after his injury in the second round and set up their future at the position well. Maybe they tag Amari if they can afford it and ride with him for one more season while whatever young receiver they pick develops?
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:56 AM   #12
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While that's true, Amari is a legit, borderline-#1 receiver (although he can give up on plays sometimes) and they traded a first for him. They should have saved the Zeke money for him instead.

Dallas should definitely go safety in the first round but this draft is incredible at receiver, they could get a Mims or a Shenault after his injury in the second round and set up their future at the position well. Maybe they tag Amari if they can afford it and ride with him for one more season while whatever young receiver they pick develops?
I know their trading a high pick for Cooper is a consideration. But I think it was too much for what they are getting. And if his salary causes the team to make cuts elsewhere, it makes the cost even higher. I don't believe in making a bad decision because I made a bad decision earlier. It is best to admit the muck up and count the losses w/o adding on to the deficit. If resigning Cooper causes too much strain on the payroll, let him go.

I would also like to say Dallas' biggest problem last year was most likely the coaching. We keep pointing to Dak's stats as vs better teams as an indication of mediocrity. But that was a franchise wide problem. Not just Dak. I think Dallas is a much better team than their record showed. And maintaining what they have now w/a new regime on the sidelines might be all they need.
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Old 03-02-2020, 11:10 AM   #13
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If they bring back Dak and let Amari walk, though, they're risking Dak regressing to his year 2 and first-half-of-year-3 performance, where he was fairly mediocre with no one to throw to. Michael Gallup is talented but if he can't stand up to being the #1 and the team drafts someone young that doesn't burst onto the scene, then Dak would look like a bad overpay.
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Old 03-02-2020, 01:25 PM   #14
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If they bring back Dak and let Amari walk, though, they're risking Dak regressing to his year 2 and first-half-of-year-3 performance, where he was fairly mediocre with no one to throw to. Michael Gallup is talented but if he can't stand up to being the #1 and the team drafts someone young that doesn't burst onto the scene, then Dak would look like a bad overpay.
There is risk in all of it. But I'd rather keep a serviceable QB than a pretty good WR. That's an easy choice.
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Old 03-02-2020, 02:02 PM   #15
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I wonder where the new coach comes down on this. It's not like he was out there begging for a job, and so I would assume the subject of Dak's future with the team came up and that Jerry & Mike would've been on the same page (alhough it's certainly possible that McCarthy was ok with both scenarios: re-signing Dak or signing a Teddy-or-Tanny-type to replace Dak...).
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:39 PM   #16
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The teams that make the Super Bowl lately are teams with QBs still on rookie contracts or the Pats (most definitely in large part due to being able to pay Brady well below market value for much of his career). That description counts for 5 of the last 6 SB teams and 6 of the last 8 (Matt Ryan and Jimmy G being the exceptions, so seems Kyle Shanahan should get a bit of credit being involved with both). So, there is an argument that they should gamble in the draft like you said
Right. And Dak isn't an elite QB and will be paid like one. That makes matters worse.

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Worse that could happen is they finish with a worse record, the QB they draft is given 2-3 yrs to find out he is not going to be an NFL level player and the Cowboys are hoping someone pans out in the draft in 2022/23. All that talent they retained is then too old and decrepit JJ has to watch the season in hospice care.

There are no guarantees with either method. But in my opinion, having a QB U know is going to be behind center the next 5 seasons is one the most valuable assets U can have in the NFL. It makes your next moves and decisions that much easier and more focused. How many great, needed, useful players in the draft were passed over because a team picked a dud at QB? Because they were afraid to possibly let a potential starter at QB
pass by? Teams chase and chase for that elusive thrower at the expense of other areas of the team. Knowing that spot is taken care of frees your mind to look elsewhere.

Supply and demand. Dak's got JJ by the balls. He should have been taken care of last season.
I agree with you. I like Dak and think he's been grossly underpaid the last four years. I'm just not sure Dallas should take the cap hit for a QB that isn't elite, or close to it.

Yes. Dallas can do worse than 8-8 which IMO would be better. 8-8 is probably the worst record a team could have. They're not terrible, but they're not bad enough to get a good 1st round pick. I'll take 2-14 and not make the playoffs over 8-8 any day of the week.

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They'll lose out on some talent because of Dak's cap hit, sure, but what's really setting them up for failure is the money they're paying Zeke. You just can't justify paying a running back $10mil+ per year when analytics have thoroughly proven that blocking plays a bigger hand in RB success than the RBs, as well as the fact that there are at least 50 guys out there that reach the threshold of talent and athleticism to take enough advantage of their blocking to be successful.

The good news for Dallas is that they got La'el Collins re-signed right before his breakout this season. But once Dak and Amari are brought back, the Cowboys are gonna have so much money dedicated to the offense that their defense will suffer (and in this case, they'd probably have to let Byron Jones walk, for starters).
You're speaking to the choir here. That Zeke contract was a mistake.

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If they bring back Dak and let Amari walk, though, they're risking Dak regressing to his year 2 and first-half-of-year-3 performance, where he was fairly mediocre with no one to throw to. Michael Gallup is talented but if he can't stand up to being the #1 and the team drafts someone young that doesn't burst onto the scene, then Dak would look like a bad overpay.
If this is the case they shouldn't be giving Dak a 35+ Mil a year contract to begin with.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:55 AM   #17
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If this is the case they shouldn't be giving Dak a 35+ Mil a year contract to begin with.
Agreed, but realistically speaking there are only like 3 or 4 QBs who can presumably drive their team no matter what they have around them (and they're either aging or not fully battle-tested on that concept), while there are 10-15 middle tier QBs that can put up numbers and win in the right situation. Dak has proven to be one of those QBs, and unfortunately the FOMO aspect dictates that teams tend to pay those QBs like they're in that first tier.

It also might be better for the Cowboys to pay Dak now if they're going to do so anyway (like if they're planning on tagging him and trying to sign him later), if the new CBA is signed the salary cap will presumably be higher and Dak would be more expensive then.
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Old 03-03-2020, 04:56 PM   #18
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Agreed, but realistically speaking there are only like 3 or 4 QBs who can presumably drive their team no matter what they have around them (and they're either aging or not fully battle-tested on that concept), while there are 10-15 middle tier QBs that can put up numbers and win in the right situation. Dak has proven to be one of those QBs, and unfortunately the FOMO aspect dictates that teams tend to pay those QBs like they're in that first tier.

It also might be better for the Cowboys to pay Dak now if they're going to do so anyway (like if they're planning on tagging him and trying to sign him later), if the new CBA is signed the salary cap will presumably be higher and Dak would be more expensive then.
I agree. If they tag him, then it's with the intent not to pay IMO. Because if they don't want to pay him now, paying him when he's more expensive is silly.

I agree with your main point. But I'd rather take the rinse and repeat with rookies until I found a QB that was very good, not necessarily elite. Bridgewater, Foles, Tannehill, and a few others can win in the right situation, doesn't mean I want to pay them 35M per. The Cowboys had one good season with Dak, the rest was average to slightly above. But not a real threat. My mindset says they can do that with a lot of QBs for much less. I can see if they were coming off consecutive 12-4 seasons, but they're not. Not even remotely close.
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Old 03-03-2020, 08:12 PM   #19
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Get a Different QB -- Dak is not "difference" maker . They are projecting 3 or 4 top level QBs in this draft ..... and the available FA QBs make it easy for Cowboys to hold the line ....
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