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Old 08-16-2017, 09:56 AM   #1
jarmenia
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How does OOTP model streaky players

I realize only Markus knows for sure, but I'd like to get a feel for what the community at large thinks....

I vaguely remember reading several years ago a study that said something like "there's no such thing as a streaky hitter, just a hitter having a bad run of luck". While that may be true is some instances, in real life we do see guys getting sent down to the minors to "work on their swing" or "find their mechanics again".

I've often thought about this in the context of a single game and a pitcher as well. Sometimes pitchers do have bad luck, but sometimes they do let their arm slot drop, or got a bad nights sleep. If OOTP models changes in performance purely randomly, then there's never a reason to pull a pitcher out "because he just doesn't have his good stuff today" and you are always better having the player in the game with the better ratings.

Anyone have any theories or insight into how OOTP models these things?
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Old 08-16-2017, 01:24 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by jarmenia View Post
I realize only Markus knows for sure, but I'd like to get a feel for what the community at large thinks....

I vaguely remember reading several years ago a study that said something like "there's no such thing as a streaky hitter, just a hitter having a bad run of luck". While that may be true is some instances, in real life we do see guys getting sent down to the minors to "work on their swing" or "find their mechanics again".

I've often thought about this in the context of a single game and a pitcher as well. Sometimes pitchers do have bad luck, but sometimes they do let their arm slot drop, or got a bad nights sleep. If OOTP models changes in performance purely randomly, then there's never a reason to pull a pitcher out "because he just doesn't have his good stuff today" and you are always better having the player in the game with the better ratings.

Anyone have any theories or insight into how OOTP models these things?
I don't know, I think the game handles streaks pretty well with the 'hot' and 'cold' symbols based on their stats over a recent stretch. I've noticed the best players seem to get on 'hot' streaks more often while the worst players are 'cold' more often. It all seems to work out pretty well as far as realism goes. If a pitcher has been getting shelled lately and they start to again you absolutely should pull them in favor of someone else, even if they have worse ratings. I've even put my ace pitcher, who started the season 0-3 with an ERA upwards of 10.00+, on the DL with a phantom injury for a couple weeks. They came back at their usual standards and ended up winning the Cy Young that season, so even that part is realistic.

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Old 08-16-2017, 01:37 PM   #3
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thought about this as well, in to read discussion.

always wondered if hot/cold streaks were programmed in.
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Old 08-16-2017, 02:28 PM   #4
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thought about this as well, in to read discussion.

always wondered if hot/cold streaks were programmed in.
I don't think they're programmed in so much as, if a player strings enough hits (or in a pitcher's case, scoreless innings) together then they become 'hot' and the likelihood of them getting another hit their next AB goes up significantly and vice versa for cold streaks. I've seen players have the hot flame next to their name for just a couple games before an ace snaps them out of it and I've seen others carry it for as much as a couple weeks (very rare).
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Old 08-16-2017, 02:44 PM   #5
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I've wondered about this too. Personally, I just ignore those flames and snowflakes for making lineup decisions. So, I'm managing under the assumption that they are just random fluctuations in performance that say more about the past than the future. But, I have no evidence either way that my assumption is correct.

I suppose someone could study the issue by comparing performance before during and after these symbols appear to see if they have any predictive value - but it would be a little tricky since the time base would be small.

Here's a recent article on the subject that I found interesting:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-hand-is-real/

Last edited by Cobby; 08-16-2017 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 08-16-2017, 03:33 PM   #6
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Personally, I just ignore those flames and snowflakes for making lineup decisions. So, I'm managing under the assumption that they are just random fluctuations in performance that say more about the past than the future. But, I have no evidence either way that my assumption is correct.
This is basically the approach I take as well. My main issue is that a guy can literally be hitting the cover off the ball and just be unlucky so he's in a cold streak. While a completely different guy could have developed a "hitch" in his swing which is causing him to be cold. In OOTP I just assume they both are unlucky where in reality the second guy might need a trip down to AAA to fix his swing.
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Old 08-16-2017, 05:28 PM   #7
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Good question OP! But I don't want to know the answer!

My 'feeling' is that some players are more streaky than others...I have had some productive hitters through the years that get a lot of their productivity done in bunches and others that seem more consistent.

Of course this is all based on my perception and biases....which I am quite happily cocooned in!!!
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Old 08-16-2017, 05:47 PM   #8
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Good question OP! But I don't want to know the answer!

My 'feeling' is that some players are more streaky than others...I have had some productive hitters through the years that get a lot of their productivity done in bunches and others that seem more consistent.

Of course this is all based on my perception and biases....which I am quite happily cocooned in!!!
I agree. I don't want to know too much. I never look under the hood. I utilize players according to their history and my feel for them. I win some lose some and never get bored.
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Old 08-16-2017, 09:46 PM   #9
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I agree. I don't want to know too much. I never look under the hood. I utilize players according to their history and my feel for them. I win some lose some and never get bored.
I agree about not wanting to know too much. However in RL, if a player's performance has dropped off and you see his mechanics have changed, you can work to get his mechanics straightened out. With OOTP, you don't get that feedback. It would be really cool to get an email from the pitching or hitting coach telling you "Joe has been dropping his elbow during his delivery and we'd like to schedule a bullpen session for him." If this type of thing coincided with a small ratings drop it would seem more accurate to the real world.
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Old 08-16-2017, 09:49 PM   #10
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Thinking a little more about this Markus could probably model something like this by modifying the day to day injury system. You could potentially exipidite fixing the mechanic by sending the player to the minor leagues to work things out.
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Old 08-16-2017, 10:14 PM   #11
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I've sent players down when they have performed poorly and then brought them back up later. I don't know if that really impacted them though or they would have "naturally" returned to the more normal performance even if I kept them on Active Roster.
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Old 08-16-2017, 11:03 PM   #12
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a hot and cold streak can have a cause... it just mostly random when you see 'streaks'

e.g. a player just has a child and doesn't sleep well, or a nagging injury, or they are weak-willed in some way that a lack of confidence is affecting their results. if you let a 0-10 get to you, that's their own doing, as opposed to "luck." if you don't understand that even babe ruth can have a bad month for no other reason that it being within a normal range of expected results (accounting for any real cause/effect during that time period).

when you eliminate that stuff, there is no such thing as a streak. no different than getting 5 straight heads... bound to happen even though unlikely. it HAS to happen... just like hot streaks HAVE to happen eventually. remember the limitations of what the mean tells you (average).

people do not get genetically superiour or improve their physical ability because then went 3-4 on a particular day. what could possibly cause someone to be better than themselvs due to recent results?!? you can't, not in the realm of possibility... you can just be temporarily with good results... and better players have that happen more often, if you have tunnel-vision and focus on some small sample of time (like the playoffs or the start of a season etc).

i think the hardest part is understanding that the things you are attributing to 'streakiness' is really rooted in reality -- information is not always available on our end in many situations. it doesn't discount that 'trends' will occur and likely for a reason... but the randomness (rather volatility in results) is there too.

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Old 08-17-2017, 01:09 PM   #13
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Obviously there are a million factors in real life that affect performance, and lead to stretches of playing really well or really poorly.

When I played in high school, I had a really hot stretch for a few weeks where I was squaring everything up. The ball literally did look bigger and slower coming in, and I was blasting it. Confidence was off the charts and I 'knew' I would hit it hard every at bat no matter who I was facing.

Then one morning before a game I was doing my summer construction job hanging sheetrock. Jammed my finger between a few sheets. Nothing bad, but enough to make it sore. Threw everything out of whack for me, and messed with my head. So long hot streak, hello cold streak.

In the game, I would assume that all the various attributes would play the biggest role in streakiness. How guys handle success or failure would seem to play a big part, so that if they are highly rated in each, they are pretty steady. If those are low, they stay cold longer or when they get hot they get cocky and come crashing back down.

Always been curious about the "handle critics" rating too, who or how is that represented in the game?
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Old 08-19-2017, 10:23 PM   #14
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I assumed "hot" & "cold" streaks were accomplished in OOTP simply through the RNG. In other words, I didn't think there was a mechanic that actually made someone hot or cold for a while on purpose. Simply by allowing enough deviation in results through the RNG, hot & cold streaks can be accomplished without needing any specific game mechanic to accomplish them. It is like asking if there is something that makes flipping a coin hot or cold when you get streaks of heads or tails. No. It is simply the distribution of "randomness" at play.
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Old 08-20-2017, 01:01 AM   #15
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I think there has to be something going on "under the hood" than just random chance. Over the course of 500-600 at bats you have players with identical ratings performing very differently. This is while neutralizing ball park factors, eliminating weather effects, scouting off etc. I've seen .300 hitters hit .220 1 year and then back up to .300. Like for 1 season, this player got a random "secret" ratings "hit"....while some other player in the league performed way above what his rating might suggest.
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Old 08-20-2017, 01:20 AM   #16
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I think there has to be something going on "under the hood" than just random chance. Over the course of 500-600 at bats you have players with identical ratings performing very differently. This is while neutralizing ball park factors, eliminating weather effects, scouting off etc. I've seen .300 hitters hit .220 1 year and then back up to .300. Like for 1 season, this player got a random "secret" ratings "hit"....while some other player in the league performed way above what his rating might suggest.
The same thing happens in real life too. Just look at someone like Chris Davis and compare his 2013 & 2014 seasons. I don't think anyone is getting any kind of "secret ratings hit" since that would be inconsistent with the rest of the game. I think you are just seeing standard statistical variance play out. I mean if you were able to "sim" someone like Wade Boggs in his prime for like 10,000 seasons I'm sure you'd see examples of him hitting over .400 as well as examples where he hits under .250 but he'd average right around .340 or so.
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Old 08-20-2017, 09:49 AM   #17
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I assumed "hot" & "cold" streaks were accomplished in OOTP simply through the RNG. In other words, I didn't think there was a mechanic that actually made someone hot or cold for a while on purpose. Simply by allowing enough deviation in results through the RNG, hot & cold streaks can be accomplished without needing any specific game mechanic to accomplish them. It is like asking if there is something that makes flipping a coin hot or cold when you get streaks of heads or tails. No. It is simply the distribution of "randomness" at play.
I agree, this is how I think it works too. Unfortunately this limits the interesting decisions someone has to make at the micro level (in game management, day to day lineups, etc).

For example assuming this is how it works, it is NEVER a good idea to pull your best pitcher to put in a lower rated pitcher just because the better pitcher gave up 8 runs in the first inning. His "bad day" is only happening because of bad luck and his luck could change with the next pitch. In reality though, if a pitcher is getting smacked around, its usually likely something specific and more than just bad luck, but not always. In that case, bringing in a second tier pitcher might actually improve your team. This is not a decision you should ever make in OOTP if things work the way you suggest.
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Old 08-20-2017, 10:11 AM   #18
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hot streaks are usually programmed with "get a crippling injury at the end of it"
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Old 08-20-2017, 12:49 PM   #19
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as far as ootp -- i think they said as much in forums:

those symbols are a "reaction" not somethign that kicks in and causes something.

a player could hit 100% hard line drives and have a "cold-streak" icon -- bad example for the game of ootp, but relateable. is he having a bad week or bad luck? in this case i am going for bad luck. not touching the hornet's next that is picking out the threshold where it's "likely" luck or not, lol. in the game it would show that snowflake symbol etc.. and in RL people would assume as much from the stats. no different and neither have any causailty.

(barring some very rare situation like what you saw tih Justin Upton in 2016 -- a weak-willed individual who is too insecure to handle bad results for too long of a period -- stickign with tigers, JV is another hot-head that lets the situation dictate to him - look at his first asg game, his first few playoff games etc etc -- he comes in and it takes extreme failure for him to admit he went about it the wrong way -- leyland was always on him for taking responsibility for poor play and he still cannot do it... he is infallible in his mind).

if they have an effect, it's some small additional neg/pos % somewhere in the equation. think more like morale/chemistry vs a veritable bump in ratings like contact going from 60->70 / 80.

maybe if long enouhg that % does grow to something noticeable? i think that would model "confidence" well, imo.

however, if going 0-10 or 0-20 has any serious effects on results, that's just insansely wrong. yesterday's resuls don't make you better! mechanics, technique, physical ability needs to improve to get better.. that does not occur when playing 1 game of baseball.

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Old 08-20-2017, 06:31 PM   #20
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I agree, this is how I think it works too. Unfortunately this limits the interesting decisions someone has to make at the micro level (in game management, day to day lineups, etc).

For example assuming this is how it works, it is NEVER a good idea to pull your best pitcher to put in a lower rated pitcher just because the better pitcher gave up 8 runs in the first inning. His "bad day" is only happening because of bad luck and his luck could change with the next pitch. In reality though, if a pitcher is getting smacked around, its usually likely something specific and more than just bad luck, but not always. In that case, bringing in a second tier pitcher might actually improve your team. This is not a decision you should ever make in OOTP if things work the way you suggest.
Having a bad outing is different than a streak, hot or cold. I wouldn't be surprised if a pitcher does lose effectiveness that day after giving up a bunch of runs in a game. I just don't think it goes any further than that. So replacing him that game would still be optimal while sending him to the minors to "work out of his cold streak" for a couple of starts would be useless.
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