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Old 10-28-2019, 05:59 PM   #421
rudel.dietrich
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Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr View Post
Matchups matter. While I think calling NE the best D ever (as some are claiming) is an exaggeration, the fact that NE is scoring nearly as many TD's than they are giving up makes them a difficult team to get offensive fantasy pts from. Goff (as pedestrian as he has been) vs a winless Bungles team would be more likely to get you pts.

So Goff got 372 yds passing & 2 td's w/0 INT's. Let's see what Jackson produces this week.
I would agree that matchups and weather matter. But projections, while not perfect still have Jackson for a 26 point game.
Goff is off next week so of course there is no projection for him.

In a standard 12 team league I don't see keeping Goff on your roster as a starter unless injuries have forced your hand.
He has been bad this year and from a non fantasy standpoint that contract is going to kill the Rams going forward.
They went from a team with one of the brightest futures to a team with a albatross contact at QB and a MVP candidate from last year who is going to fall off a cliff any week now due to his arthritic knee giving out on him and will be out of the league by the end of that season.

I do have Jackson on my team as a drafted keeper from last year. So maybe this is just me hoping me has a 30+ point week against NE
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:45 PM   #422
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On a side note. There is a youtube channel called classic sports or something like that. You can watch condensed games. Every time I watch one of those game from the 90s one thing stands out more than anything. The game was a lot more physical back then. You can clearly see the difference from then and what we watch today. For a bunch of players that are supposedly bigger, stronger, faster, it certainly isn't evident in today's game.
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:53 PM   #423
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On a side note. There is a youtube channel called classic sports or something like that. You can watch condensed games. Every time I watch one of those game from the 90s one thing stands out more than anything. The game was a lot more physical back then. You can clearly see the difference from then and what we watch today. For a bunch of players that are supposedly bigger, stronger, faster, it certainly isn't evident in today's game.
I call that progress. I think giving players a chance to have a better quality of life post career is worth it.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:38 PM   #424
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QB Lamar Jackson
QB Kirk Cousins
QB Patrick Mahomes

This is my fantasy situation. I picked up Cousins last week and he was underwhelming vs Washington. Jackson comes back after his bye week but he is playing against a historically good Patriots defence. Mahomes is still injured. So to me Jackson is probably ideal but there could be a decent QB like Minshew on Waivers.
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Old 10-28-2019, 08:04 PM   #425
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I'm old enough to remember when Dolphins vs Steelers was one of the best matchups of the year.
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Old 10-28-2019, 08:52 PM   #426
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Other than a few Jets teams in the late 00's their division has been absolute garbage for the past 20 years.
You know, I hear this comment a lot. It's just one of those things that people repeat over and over. So, how bad is the AFC East? Here's one way to find out. Strip out the division winners from each year for the last 20 seasons (which essentially eliminates the Patriots, but leaves all of those other crappy teams) and make a comparison. And since you're stripping out the perennial AFC East winner who almost always gets a 1st round playoff bye, you're giving a small net bonus to the other divisions. Not counting the abbreviated period where the Central Divisions were still around (but they're included on the chart), guess which division has the best record?
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Old 10-28-2019, 09:05 PM   #427
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You know, I hear this comment a lot. It's just one of those things that people repeat over and over. So, how bad is the AFC East? Here's one way to find out. Strip out the division winners from each year for the last 20 seasons (which essentially eliminates the Patriots, but leaves all of those other crappy teams) and make a comparison. And since you're stripping out the perennial AFC East winner who almost always gets a 1st round playoff bye, you're giving a small net bonus to the other divisions. Not counting the abbreviated period where the Central Divisions were still around (but they're included on the chart), guess which division has the best record?

That's interesting, but how about we remove the first two years and make sure each division has played the exact same number of games? The AFC East played 944 games, whereas some other divisions played 818 or 880. Until they've all played the exact same number of games then just how accurate is it? I wonder how much, if any, of that would change. Not picking a fight here, just curious.
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Old 10-28-2019, 09:21 PM   #428
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Which is worse for pro football? The Miami Dolphins or Joe Tessitore & Booger McFarland broadcasting the Miami Dolphins?
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Old 10-29-2019, 01:46 AM   #429
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Not sure it would matter. Over the past 15 years or so the Patriots have won 77% of their Div. games. They also won 77% of out of Div. games. And of course, 77% of all games. So despite being in a crap division their win % doesn't change even when playing other teams.
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Not counting the abbreviated period where the Central Divisions were still around (but they're included on the chart), guess which division has the best record?
Don't these definitively debunk the myth that the Patriots have benefited by being in a perennially weak division? What am I missing?

For those who think that playing in the "weak" AFC East allows the Pats to fatten up during the regular season to get home field advantage in the playoffs, keep in mind that in fully half of the Patriots 6 NFL title runs, they had to win ON THE ROAD in the AFC title game to get to the Super Bowl.

And don't forget, Brady, Belichek and the Pats won zero Super Bowls from 2005 thru 2013. They are not invincible, just resilient.

As for this year's outlook, for those who figure at least a cruise to the Super Bowl, and likely a title, is a foregone conclusion for New England, consider these seasons and the Pats record, and that they did not win the title in those years:

2006 12-4
2007 16-0
2008 11-5
2010 14-2
2011 13-3
2012 12-4
2013 12-4
2015 12-4
2017 13-3

Besides the Patriots, nobody in the AFC is all that impressive this year. However, I would not at all be shocked to see the Chiefs knock them off, despite ForeverRoyalKC's pessimism. Especially when you look at who the Patriots have beaten (no good teams), who the Chiefs have lost to (three good teams, including a close loss without Mahomes), and who the Chiefs have beaten (a few decent teams).

We'll see...
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Old 10-29-2019, 07:10 AM   #430
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The point hef is not that the easy division helps them win the playoffs. Its that it makes it easier to get into the playoffs. You got be in it to win it. If 10 games normally puts you in and you have 5 automatic ones every year, that is a huge advantage.
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Old 10-29-2019, 08:46 AM   #431
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And winning the divisions always gets at least a home game and usually a bye

They've just been a perfect storm of every variable coming together. HOF QB, HOF coach, good luck, some cheating, lousy regular season competition, opponents going braindead in the SB, etc.
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Old 10-29-2019, 09:05 AM   #432
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And winning the divisions always gets at least a home game and usually a bye

They've just been a perfect storm of every variable coming together. HOF QB, HOF coach, good luck, some cheating, lousy regular season competition, opponents going braindead in the SB, etc.
Exactly! I give the Pats their due. They are still good. I have tremendous respect for how Belicheat teaches his players to handle themselves on the field. They don't beat themselves.

But the breaks have gone their way. Whole thing started with a tuck rule no one had ever heard of before. Then you have McNabb throwing up. John Kasay's kickoff out of bounds. Seattle trying to prevent Beast Mode from winning the SB MVP. Atlanta's meltdown. Cundiff's missed FG. One penalty vs the Jaguars.
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Old 10-29-2019, 09:11 AM   #433
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I would agree that matchups and weather matter. But projections, while not perfect still have Jackson for a 26 point game.
Goff is off next week so of course there is no projection for him.

In a standard 12 team league I don't see keeping Goff on your roster as a starter unless injuries have forced your hand.
He has been bad this year and from a non fantasy standpoint that contract is going to kill the Rams going forward.
They went from a team with one of the brightest futures to a team with a albatross contact at QB and a MVP candidate from last year who is going to fall off a cliff any week now due to his arthritic knee giving out on him and will be out of the league by the end of that season.

I do have Jackson on my team as a drafted keeper from last year. So maybe this is just me hoping me has a 30+ point week against NE
The Todd Gurley deal is what really killed them. Gurley's already losing some effectiveness because of his injuries, and is losing ptoduction because that offensive line is really bad this year.

And really it's the regression of the O-Line this year that has caused the Rams offense to look bad at times. Goff certainly isn't an elite QB, but he's a good second tier guy whose biggest weakness (handling pressure) is being amplified by the current team's makeup. It's gonna be a tough problem to fix, as their only talented young linemen are Rob Havenstein and Austin Blythe and both are playing badly this year with the rest of the line, and they're hell bent on not picking early in any draft.

The Rams are going to be an interesting follow for the next few years. At a certain point though Les Snead needs to stop getting in the way of the team's future.
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Old 10-29-2019, 09:33 AM   #434
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Has any team given a huge RB deal and ended up better off for it? There are like five RBs ever who are anything more than a product of their O-Line and system.
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Old 10-29-2019, 09:59 AM   #435
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Week 9
SF(-9.5)@ARI Pick: SF
HOU(-2.5)@JAX Pick: HOU
WAS@BUF(-9.5) Pick: WAS
TEN@CAR(-3.5) Pick: CAR
MIN@KC(NL)
NYJ(-5)@MIA Pick: NYJ
CHI@PHI(-4.5) Pick: PHI
IND(-1)@PIT Pick: PIT
DET@OAK(-2) Pick: DET
TB@SEA(-6.5) Pick: SEA
CLE(-2.5)@DEN Pick: DEN
GB(-3.5)@LAC Pick: GB
NE(-3.5)@BAL Pick: NE
DAL(-7)@NYG Pick: NYG
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Old 10-29-2019, 10:03 AM   #436
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The Patriots have a history of performing down to their competition in the playoffs, see the super bowl against the NY Giants twice and Philadelphia, and nearly Atlanta.
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Old 10-29-2019, 10:42 AM   #437
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The Patriots have a history of performing down to their competition in the playoffs, see the super bowl against the NY Giants twice and Philadelphia, and nearly Atlanta.
I don't know how you can "play down" to your competition in the Super Bowl. It's not as if the SB loser is the 3rd best team in their division. Philadelphia specifically was in the conference finals every year for 4 years straight I think.
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Old 10-29-2019, 10:52 AM   #438
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I don't know how you can "play down" to your competition in the Super Bowl. It's not as if the SB loser is the 3rd best team in their division. Philadelphia specifically was in the conference finals every year for 4 years straight I think.
When you have arguably the best player and best coach of all time and have won more super bowl rings than you can fit on a hand?
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Old 10-29-2019, 10:59 AM   #439
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You are going to lose a few games against good teams, that's football. The outcome of any one game is mostly luck even though that makes for boring storylines. One field goal attempt, one pass interference decision, one fumble recovery, one deflected pass that goes to a defender often determines the winner and loser.

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Old 10-29-2019, 11:10 AM   #440
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That's interesting, but how about we remove the first two years and make sure each division has played the exact same number of games? The AFC East played 944 games, whereas some other divisions played 818 or 880. Until they've all played the exact same number of games then just how accurate is it? I wonder how much, if any, of that would change. Not picking a fight here, just curious.
So, removing the 2000 and 2001, it bumps the AFC East down to #2. Note that you will never have the exact same number of games for each division. The imbalanced scheduling will keep that from happening for a study like this. For example, a year where the previous year's NFC South 1st place team faces the previous year's AFC West 1st place team. If one of those teams ended up winning their division but the other didn't, it creates an imbalance where only the loser gets credited with a game in this study. But the point is to measure the strength of the non-division winning teams vs. the other non-winning division teams.

It still shows that the Patriots aren't fattening up on their divisional rivals more so than other division winners.If anything, this provides evidence of two points: 1) That's it's unfortunate for the rest of the AFC East that the Patriots are in the division because the rest of the teams as a whole are actually better than people have given them credit for over the last 18 seasons, and 2) that it's NFC West that is full of weaklings on average.
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