Drafting Help

[MattODU]

Hello,

I am trying to get better at drafting and was wondering how do most people go about setting up a draft board to rank all the prospects. Do you all just setup your own spreadsheet and use formulas to assign a value to each prospect? Are there any guides out there on how to setup a spreadsheet like this?

[NoOne]

i wouldn't approach it quite like RL. many ways to do it, but here's what i do:

as far as evaluation -- ratings with tempered expectation due to inaccuracy in scouting. understanding things like 18yo's may have higher potential, but college kids a more likely to hit their ceiling, albeit slightly lower on average. (evens out over time, likely, but one's more volatile, etc)

i have a shortlist named "Watch List" -- i fill it with the "best" players. in this case i have a high threshold. over time as ratings become more accurate, i weed this list. i also re-check minors, occasionally. so, i only shortlist a small number of players before the draft.

i like to save a bit of time on the "draft boards"

early on (1-3? depends on settings), i only care about a small range of high end prospects. so, i auto-draft to my pick before i make and temporary lists. i just use "default" list for this - it's a Work-in-Progress (temp) list for me.

now, i go through the batters/pitchers seperately. round 1 i may only shortlist 3-5-10 of each.. maybe more of one in some years etc... then, i pare that down to a choice, but i leave the others shortlisted. (obviously if any of the Watch List players make it to my pick, they are a priority and may not add to a temp list until all on the watchlist are gone, because i already know they are the top tier according to my preferences)

auto-draft to next pick

i continue to look for 'comparable' players to any that remain on the list and shortlist them. however, by round 3ish (later for me-> "low scouting accuracy" setting) this list starts to explode. this would be teh equivalent of a big draft board, for my way of doing things...

once the obviously better prospects are gone, that's when i work on the greater shortlist / draft board. this is where i know differences in scouting accuracy will allow a great # on the list to persist through more than a round. it's worthwhile to weed through the players en masse now.

i will look through this lists for choices at various points, as well as whether i decide to wait a round on one etc... e.g. 10sp on list and i need only 1. if possible i will draft a good quality player of a less abundant position in my list and relative to need where prudent.

it's also way easier to compare players in a shortlist without junk in between. custom views, filters etc etc with no filler between.

at the end of this list (all drafted) i expect interchangeable players to be available and zoom through to the end, i amay even immediately release those players if too many in mil system.

at end, i clear the Temp shortlist. i made good choices relative to all that was available at each round, and i have added names to a long-term watch list for future trade possibilities -- with the least amount of effort possible.

[MattODU]

Originally Posted by NoOne

i wouldn't approach it quite like RL. many ways to do it, but here's what i do:

as far as evaluation -- ratings with tempered expectation due to inaccuracy in scouting. understanding things like 18yo's may have higher potential, but college kids a more likely to hit their ceiling, albeit slightly lower on average. (evens out over time, likely, but one's more volatile, etc)

i have a shortlist named "Watch List" -- i fill it with the "best" players. in this case i have a high threshold. over time as ratings become more accurate, i weed this list. i also re-check minors, occasionally. so, i only shortlist a small number of players before the draft.

i like to save a bit of time on the "draft boards"

early on (1-3? depends on settings), i only care about a small range of high end prospects. so, i auto-draft to my pick before i make and temporary lists. i just use "default" list for this - it's a Work-in-Progress (temp) list for me.

now, i go through the batters/pitchers seperately. round 1 i may only shortlist 3-5-10 of each.. maybe more of one in some years etc... then, i pare that down to a choice, but i leave the others shortlisted. (obviously if any of the Watch List players make it to my pick, they are a priority and may not add to a temp list until all on the watchlist are gone, because i already know they are the top tier according to my preferences)

auto-draft to next pick

i continue to look for 'comparable' players to any that remain on the list and shortlist them. however, by round 3ish (later for me-> "low scouting accuracy" setting) this list starts to explode. this would be teh equivalent of a big draft board, for my way of doing things...

once the obviously better prospects are gone, that's when i work on the greater shortlist / draft board. this is where i know differences in scouting accuracy will allow a great # on the list to persist through more than a round. it's worthwhile to weed through the players en masse now.

i will look through this lists for choices at various points, as well as whether i decide to wait a round on one etc... e.g. 10sp on list and i need only 1. if possible i will draft a good quality player of a less abundant position in my list and relative to need where prudent.

it's also way easier to compare players in a shortlist without junk in between. custom views, filters etc etc with no filler between.

at the end of this list (all drafted) i expect interchangeable players to be available and zoom through to the end, i amay even immediately release those players if too many in mil system.

at end, i clear the Temp shortlist. i made good choices relative to all that was available at each round, and i have added names to a long-term watch list for future trade possibilities -- with the least amount of effort possible.

Thanks for the detailed response.

I've got another draft question. When evaluating prospects how much emphasis should I place on their high school/college stats? Say for example I'm trying to decide between 2 players, but one has much better stats. Should I always go with the guy that has better stats?

[NoOne]

just as in RL, the quality of competition is so low it amounts to a very thick fog of war.

e.g. a state HS all-time HR leader fizzles out in the minors every year (a bit of an exaggeration, but a real example my home town off the top of my head - a small town too). it amounts to a crapshoot, so don't hang your hat on them.

if you don't have ratings on, then i bet there's some glimmer of information that it provides, but still incredibly blurry at best. you have much higher% of success by going with ratings > hs/colelge stats of draftees.

when drafting at the top, make sure to dump a little more $$$ into amatuer scouting that particular year. don't skimp on a good scout... once one comes available dump your current ASAP... well worth the investment.

keep staf costs <10M and you are good... if small budget constaints, skimp on MiL coaching costs before you skimp on a scout.

spending as much as needed on a scout and trainer is a good idea no matter what the budget.

[NoOne]

a tip, that may or may not be perfect:

start sorting by different means at different poitns... settings will effect "when" but someting similar to: (likely earlier than me, i use "low accuracy")

e.g. early in the draft i filter "greater than" various ratings. SP - ">40con" and ">50mov" etc and sort by potential (low threshold as to not inadvertently hide a borderline choice to consider)... once the better prospects are gone, i start sorting entire list only by movement... then looking for high stuff/control or some combination of the two. (could use filters as above, but at this point i have a very forgiving eye that it won't make much of a difference as far as clutter and more change i hide something i could like)

at some point, sorting by "movement" as opposed to "potential" will yield a higher % of viable MiL players, possibly ML surprises too.

this is where learning with 100% accuracy really pays off. knowing when "most" pitchers drop to ~100/100 out of 200 control/movement is about the point you want to swtich it up on sorting.

with low accuracty it's 3--4-5th round depending on depth of draft. with normal it's ~3rd pretty consisttently, if i recall. guesstimates.

i'd use "potential" of X value as the threshold to look for, but your scout and setitng will heavily influence this. if big budget and legend scout, low accuracy, figure ~30-40+ potential is teh point you want to start sorting by movement for SP. with normal accuracy, i'd guesstimate that when ~50POT and under SP are left on board, you shoudl sort by movement.

go lower for rp switch threshold, drawing blank on batters at moment (pot -> move sort)

however, it's less complicated with batters... but at some point you will find a greater % of viable players out of X if you sort by contact as opposed to potential. therefore, you have a greater chagne of selecting a 'better' pick.

proof:

leave accuracy settings as you want and intend to use, but turn on comissioner mode. enter draft or go to draft pool list, sort by potential and click down through players in editor -- take note of how many are good vs bad ratings. now sort by movement and repeat the previous process...

when you see a greater # of decent choices from sorting by movment, that's the poiint in the draft you should switch it up. it will vary year-to-year, but even without cheating you should get a good feel for it, eventually... don't have to be perfect. sometimes i switch late/early, but never far off.

batter, RP and SP are all a bit different as to when this takes place. each year can be a bit different. settings can make what i sugges completely wrong too in some situations... so run with general concepts first not anything exactly as i say it.

[bigsmooth]

The great thing about this game, is its realism - I have my leagues scouting set on very low - so the decisions you make, are what you read into the player profile. I normally look for attributes like leadership, and work ethic if they comment on them; I also normally draft a Starting Pitcher in the 1st round; a lefty if they are the best available. I believe in building arms - other than that, read the profile, and go with your scouting director's recommendations sometimes - like real life it is a crap shoot.

[thunderdood]

Originally Posted by bigsmooth

The great thing about this game, is its realism - I have my leagues scouting set on very low - so the decisions you make, are what you read into the player profile. I normally look for attributes like leadership, and work ethic if they comment on them; I also normally draft a Starting Pitcher in the 1st round; a lefty if they are the best available. I believe in building arms - other than that, read the profile, and go with your scouting director's recommendations sometimes - like real life it is a crap shoot.

I've recently noticed that the last 4-5 amateur drafts I've selected Pitchers in the first round with high potential (4-5 stars) only to see them the following season with 1-2 star potential and eventually never get good enough to promote to the ML. Work ethic/leadership at least normal. Kind of interesting that I've been striking out so much with pitchers vs batters which have been more consistent.

[NoOne]

batters are more consistent, imo too. i still predominantly go with SP at the top of the draft, nonetheless. after top5-10 depending on # of viable choices, i look at both equally, if not shaded toward a power bat.

you can't stray for long from SP. they disappear the fastest of any position every year without fail. with normal accuracy it takes a miracle just to get an 'average' mlb pitchin in rd3-4ish. but by round 5-7-9 you can't even find guys with consistently 100/100 move/control potential (my demarcation line for a ~ml'er - opinion and some give and take of each in combination)

the highly rated batters aren't necessary 'clear' but they are more predominantly at the top in my experience. power is the unknown, typically.. the one that's bloated or underrated and completely changes their outlook when your scout picks it up in A or AA-ball (less often TCR, more often scouting, can be either reason). pitchers are all over the board on movement and even the other 2 important ratings... i think that's the cause - the weight behind power isn't as large as movement + craziness of all 3 pitch ratings > craziness 3 batter ratings in total, methinks. i think this mimics RL too.

IRL they predicted cameron maybin to be a ~25-30hr guy when he was a prospect! and you can just tell by their verbage they don't know their heads from there @@@es when they talk about draft picks.

if you have normal accuracy, i wouldn't trust a highly rated pitcher too often at the end of the first round... first 5-10 picks, maybe.

i look at depth to help choose, some years, whether to go with SP or a batter. if i pick late enough i'll even take a killer closer on a very very rare occasion.

except in extreme need or gluttony elsewhere in mil system, i'll go with what there is more of before the draft starts.

as far as your bad luck -- it's most likely just a few weak drafts that have exascerbated your bad luck. sometimes there's not 1 superstar batter in the entire catalog of draftees. same with pitching, and those years best you can hope for is someone that might make an all-star team in a 'better' year.

[bosgorilla]

Hi,

I have some additional questions to this, please:
1. How do you know who is a good scout?
2. When looking at players, there is a screen based on OSA ratings and my own team's personnel. Sometimes they can be miles apart... Should I only consider my own personnel's opinion? Or also consider the OSA one?

Thank you!

[NoOne]

as in vegas, you play the odds.

open up scout profile -- it says if they are bad/good/legend at various types of scouting.

things to remember - international scouting applies to international leagues... if you have them off, you have NO international scouting concerns. (ie generated players for july 2nd and discovers are not international scouting)

so, that may free up 1/4th of your scouting budget to spend on the other three.

scout + budget = scouting accuracy.

OSA = very likely "middle-of-the-road" qualtiy plus baseline budgets (baseline /4 or baseline /3 etc, don't think the AI is smart enough to zero out int'l scouting as humans are, i'd guesd "/4")

anytime you are spending more than "baseline" and have a better than "average" scout you should trust your scout over the OSA -- playing the odds.

you wont be right everytime, obviously. still doesn't change the fact you have a higher % going with your scout... Law of Independent Results!

any other omens that come into play? Well, if i see a "XX/100" contact in rookie doing things that an "xx/100" shouldn't be able to do, i pay a bit more attention.

change in potential as viewed in scouting reports from palyer profile is another key for me (bigger key). is it trending down or up since he was drafted?

know how accuracy is different when young/inexperienced vs older and a few mil years under their belt... it's not the same %inaccuracy. it looks different and you should be able to key-in on various things that may correlate and help you deduce what is true.

as far as amatuer draftees, discoveries and july 2nd amatuers (all newly created) -- you don't have any of that stuff... you must play the odds, if smart.

i do peak at the osa, on occasion. one example: younger player in mil - i compare osa power vs scout's power.. with a pitcher i compare movmenet... because these things are more inaccurate that other portions of the player (anythign that fits that description, i'll look at both). still a higher % my scout is better than osa.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by NoOne

things to remember - international scouting applies to international leagues... if you have them off, you have NO international scouting concerns. (ie generated players for july 2nd and discovers are not international scouting)

so, that may free up 1/4th of your scouting budget to spend on the other three.

Do you have a source for this? It seems to go against the prevailing opinion on international scouting influencing discovery players.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Bobble

Do you have a source for this? It seems to go against the prevailing opinion on international scouting influencing discovery players.

i didn't mention discoveries.. just teh IAFA july 2nd guys..

yeah, it might hellp there.. but you are talking about 1 superstar per 10 years and the rest is never making it beyond Short A... reducing to zero may not even change that % much.. that's not even for certain either... either way it's a small portion of the total pie. even it does increase that rate, it can likely be shown that investing elsewhere is a greater net positive even when you consider opportunity costs.

upto you if you think it's worth it.

if you have int'l leagues off, it severely reduces teh ROI of your international scouting budget. this may have changed in ootp19 or even 18, i didn't verifiy it's continued SOP. how much does the additional funding help with accuracy? if it doens't help much, i'd pump it back into int'l scouting, but it'd stil lbe a lower priority.

i'm a rare person.. i invest more into MiL than amatuer scouting... i always pick near last in first round. i trade for more future players than i draft. if that's your dynamic, you should think of doing the same... if you get more from draft, you ned to invest more into draft... nothign i say is automatic and always based oncontext .. sometimes i leave context out and it may not apply to your situtaion... always use logic and rational thought to find a break-even point and do whats best for your style of play...

if you want to test discoveries... make a few teams with a huge budget and some zeroed out and start tabulating results over a very very long period of time - relative to this question many many years will be needed since it's such a small percentage... any difference will easily be masked by volatility of such a rare occurence. at one tim ei thoughtit helped, you can even fin d aforum post of me saying so... i stil saw studs as dicoveries even after i zeroed it out and stil lhas them turned on... no longer the case for me)

scouting discoveriers are just 99% crap. so whether you bump it up to 97% or 95% how much does that help? technically it probably does, but it's a small difference that is easily outwieghed by the benefits of investing elsewhere. really depends on the improvements you see elsewhere and if those don't help much, then yea... go back to spending some on int'l scouting...

i have actualyl turned them off and boosted IAFA #'s. just my preference. honestly, i did it mostly due to the email interuptions, lol.

if i say sim to next scouting report (month), it should sim to the next scouting report and don't bother me. i have everythign unchecked except to interrupt for injuries and such (any dtd amount too). yet, it still interrupts for a silly message about a 16yo old that's likey crap 99% of the time and no immediate decision to be made anyway.

[Coja]

Originally Posted by bosgorilla

Hi,

I have some additional questions to this, please:
1. How do you know who is a good scout?
2. When looking at players, there is a screen based on OSA ratings and my own team's personnel. Sometimes they can be miles apart... Should I only consider my own personnel's opinion? Or also consider the OSA one?

Thank you!

1. For scouts (and coaches) I do a csv dump, and use excel to look through them. Makes it easy to sort for what I'm looking for - and toward the end of the columns - the excel has a decent built in overall "grading" system for each of the different types (Manager, hitting coach, pitching coach, scout, and doctor). Some may feel this is "cheaty" though.
(I quickly sort by age - to delete the retired guys, then I sort team (so I can focus on unemployed) and a secondary sort by grade that I'm looking to fill. This puts all the unemployed guys on the top, ranked highest to lowest. Pretty quick and easy to find what I'm looking for.

Scouts have ratings (Scout majors, minors, international, and amateurs). Higher score is better.

Coaches have ratings too, but (I think) except for "focus" they are hidden in game (but show in the csv dump).

It's VERY rare I have a poor scout, as I check every season for scouts. I have no issue firing my scout to upgrade (but will keep a slightly less talented scout if he is much younger).

2. I use both, and weight them in my mind according to the talent of my scout. If he's a good scout, I heavily lean toward his opinions. But, will check the OSA, particularly if he is not performing up to ratings (even good scouts get stuff wrong, so more info is helpful).

Edit : In case anyone reading doesn't know how to dump :
In game ... Game/Game Settings/Database tab/Database Tools Dropdown/Export data to CSV files

Then to get it on your spreadsheet .. open your sheet.
Go to Documents/OOTPDevelopments/OOTP Baseball 19/saved game/YOURGAME/import_export/csv/..... Then drag the "coaches.csv" file to your sheet.