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Old 10-02-2017, 06:09 PM   #1
Bad Scooter
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Insights Appreciated: I Am REALLY Struggling with This Game

I'm really struggling to maintain consistency from year to year in my seasons. I'm wondering if people might be able to provide some insights...

I'm playing as the Braves (maybe my first problem?).
  • I don't play any of the games.
  • I ask the AI to set up my minor leagues each April 1, June 1, and August 1.
  • I let my Assistant GM handle hiring/firings of my minor league staff.
  • The AI manager sets lineups and rotation.

The only tasks that I handle manually are:
  • Hiring & firing of MLB personnel
  • Trades
  • MLB Draft
  • Free agent signings

Some questions...
  1. When I hire staff, I typically look only at their reputations (i.e. Outstanding, Excellent, etc.). Should I pay more attention to their skill sets? Should I hire to address my team's weaknesses or its strengths?
  2. How do I know when it's time to promote someone? That's been my biggest challenge and why I typically let the AI handle it.
  3. When you're drafting players, how much stock do you put in a player's stats? What about when you're signing free agents?

It's quite overwhelming and demoralizing all at the same time!

But I love it.
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Old 10-02-2017, 10:15 PM   #2
mitchkenn
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Like you, i never play out games. i sim everything.

i never let my assistant Gm do anything but promote and demote minor league players in the minors. i hire the staffs myself. i promote and demote from the major leagues as GM/Manager. as you, i let the AI manager (bench coach/ minor league managers) set lineups and pitching rotation - both in majors and minors.

i look at my minors often. i use those horrid arrows as a guideline to highlight potential players, but i go by stats to make a decision. If i have a hot minor league player at a position that is under producing in the majors, i'll move that player up a step or two, if he's in AA or AAA, i'll put him into the majors. i try to keep my 40 man roster at 30 if possible, so i can move major leaguers down (if they have options). If no options, or they refuse to be demoted, i'll trade them for prospects, or potential prospects, possibly draft picks if i can do a bundle of some sort.

When drafting, that's a real crap shoot. i tend to use the stars as a guideline for potential, and ask my scout what he thinks ... but mostly it's guess work for me, esp. after the first round.

with free agents, i first look at a need. i tend not to sign players that are already over 30 to more than a two year contract. Younger players, i'll offer 4 or 5 years, but unless they are Babe Ruth or Willie Mays, i seldom go over 6 years. Of course, i look at their stats, especially the stats of the last two years. if it's flat or going up, i'll offer a contract, or meet their demands (if it's within my parameters stated above.) If it's slowly going down in performance and still fits my need, i'll offer a 1 or 2 year contract.

everyone is different, with different points of view. it also depends if you are rebuilding or trying to keep a team competitive on how much you are willing to spend and how old the player is for your situation.

Good luck and enjoy. there is not a wrong way or play the game. Try a variety of ideas and find one that works for you. That's all that matters. Reality is in your game as long as you enjoy it.
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“They make a desolation and call it peace.” ― Agha Shahid Ali
"Maybe she just has to sing, for the sake of the song - And who do I think that I am to decide that she's wrong." - Townes Van Zandt
"I saw a young man leaning on his wooden crutch - He called out to me, 'Don't ask for so much' And a young woman leaning in her darkened door She cried out to me, 'Why not ask for more?' " - Leonard Cohen
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"All the lies about Babe Ruth are true." - Waite Hoyt

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Last edited by mitchkenn; 10-02-2017 at 10:16 PM.
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Old 10-03-2017, 09:28 AM   #3
TGH-Adfabre
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1) I do not find the hiring of coaches entertaining and I do not think their influence adds much to my experience, I turn off the coaching model.
2) Turn off scouting or change it to 100% accuracy. If oyu are having a hard time with talent start with perfect information then make things more difficult.
3) Similar to above, change OVR/POT to 20-80 and the other ratings to 1-100 or 20-100, I cannot remember what the setting is right now.
4) I set my MiLB rster sizes to unlimited ot 35 players. This means I can have a lot of depth so I do not play DL or Day to Day injury manager.
5) I let the Ai handle lineups and pitching staffs for my major and minor league teams.
6) I do not know your understanding of baseball and how to asses the usefulness of players at certain positions. Knowing that will help.
7) You may want to spend 20 minutes Googling what is important about each position in the field. Some positions defense is more important and others defense can be sacrificed for offense.
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Old 10-03-2017, 04:11 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bad Scooter View Post
I'm really struggling to maintain consistency from year to year in my seasons. I'm wondering if people might be able to provide some insights...

I'm playing as the Braves (maybe my first problem?).
  • I don't play any of the games.
  • I ask the AI to set up my minor leagues each April 1, June 1, and August 1.
  • I let my Assistant GM handle hiring/firings of my minor league staff.
  • The AI manager sets lineups and rotation.

The only tasks that I handle manually are:
  • Hiring & firing of MLB personnel
  • Trades
  • MLB Draft
  • Free agent signings

Some questions...
  1. When I hire staff, I typically look only at their reputations (i.e. Outstanding, Excellent, etc.). Should I pay more attention to their skill sets? Should I hire to address my team's weaknesses or its strengths?
  2. How do I know when it's time to promote someone? That's been my biggest challenge and why I typically let the AI handle it.
  3. When you're drafting players, how much stock do you put in a player's stats? What about when you're signing free agents?

It's quite overwhelming and demoralizing all at the same time!

But I love it.
1) unfortunately reputation only represents their actual success... run any league and scroll through the "winningest" coaches and you see just as many crappy coaches as good ones... so it really doesn't help much... if it's 54/46 vs 50/50 i consider that the same ~ratio relative to the human eye.

opinion: i'd pay the most attention to their strategies. what era you play in will be of utmost importance to the decisions, too. i also look at their ratings, lol... how i learned to play and i refuse to give it up! reputation is meaningless junk because it's so weakly correlated with anything at all.

i would bet alot of money that a guy with SB frequency maxed out will lose more games all other thigns remaining the same than someone with a more moderate approacch to SB in a modern statistical settings (e.g. 2017 stats)... even change their "handle players" to 1/2 the other guy... if the stategies is a failure the coach is almost certain to be a failure without great luck.

2) promote players based on ratings, if you can see them. single strongest correlation to what that player is except in extreme situations. i play with the lowest possible accuracy setting, and the ratings on average are still way better at predicting than stats - empirically true, incontrevertable.

stats require a suitable sample size while ALSO maintaining a fairly consistent talent level, otherwise there's alot of art involved to evaluating the numbers... art is bad, inconsistent, unreliable, and flakey... if a mil player is contstantly changing, you constantly need a new 'suitable' sample size... the stats on a player developing are even more volatile and tell you even less than you expect relative to MLB players with a track record.

with that said, playing stats only is about entertainment value and none of the above... you can still do all the same evaluations with stats as you do with ratings... the information simply won't be as good (more often wrong or a bit off etc).

when to promote what ratings? age plays a minor role, but i don't have problems promoting early relative to age... i have some suggestions in the stickied post for each level... minimum to be decent etc... it does not consider inaccuracy of scouting... also, waiting for a new scouting report after a promotion is a very good idea... scouting is/becomes more accurate at higher minor league levels.

that's where stats come back in to play with ratings on... Rookie, short a and even a bit in A-ball you will very likely need to use stats to verify current ability (ratings) -- many good prospects can be poorly rated in Rookie ball, but by A-ball you will see them near the top of a sorted by potential list.

if you see a "50/80" contact but performing like a 30/80 and that raises a red flag about inaccuracy. you pop them down and they dominate again, you can probably assume those bad stats were short-term and pop him back up.

3) HS and college stats are 100% meaningless unless you have absolutely no ratings to go by... they have virtually no correlation to future success. it's so weak that you may as well ignore it. i guarantee in real life they don't care much about HS/college stats besides comparing to counterparts in those leagues. it's easier to say it's a completely different game being played, therefore it doesn't translate well.

A FA - a bit different... with no ratings on, stats are irreplaceable, piece of information. with ratings on... MLB scouting is really accurate, in general... espeically someone with ~7 years expereince hitting FA. Age would be the thing to key in on and whether stats are showing a decline or not etc -- possibly before scouting adjusts to the new reality of that player... are scouting reports trending down in player profile ?? etc etc..

i have a good sense of what i get in return from various ratings and combinations... i'm just looking to be mor ecertain of their ratings when in sign a FA... typically the easier of player evaluations... but, things you cannot control are at play, like aging... you cannot predict the future, but you should now what 'probably' will happen and be willing to accept them all if they occur or take on some risk and role the dice a bit.

Some tips to hasten learning:

turn on 100% accurate scouting... turn off personality and ancillary stuff that merely provides some controlled volatility to various aspects of the game. essentially you want it in a more pure form and then understand it from there... as you add layers back on you will see how those settings influence what you see... you won't be able to "see through it" but you will understand all the forces at play better and not erroneously associate blame with the wrong force... no one can make good decisions consistently in that situation.

play in the same statistical envirnment -- at first... whehter it's the same historic period or just 2017 start date. again, learning a good/accurate baseline will help in the future.

turn commissioner mode on while you do these thigns... look at the real #'s under the hood.

E.G. learning about the draft: sort by potential then click profile editor and click through the names as sorted (with inaccuracy in this case)... now sort by Contact and do the same... which shows a higher frequency of good players at the top? what works in the first ~2-3 rounds of the draft will not neccessarily be the best for the latter portion of the draft.

i know this works well, but threshold will be different based on accuracy settings and how good your scout it: Pitching in the draft... sort by potential initially... then once you're down to less than ~30/80 potential, start sorting by movement (maybe with normal scouting it's ~21/80, probably lower than what i see with the lowest accuracy setting)... i guarantee at some point it will become the strongest prediction to mlb ability later in the draft for pitching. use commissioner mode to verify... you'll see way less 1/200 movement for pitchers at top... way more 100mov/200 and 100con/200 or higher while sorting by movement.

it's not a magic key, but 2/10 sorting by potential vs 4/10 sorting by movement being viable choices (guys without 1/200 movement in this case) for a late round pitcher having suitable movement and control is 2x as good even if you don't see it year-to-year, it will average out over time that way. i don't know if it's 2x, but it's distinctly higher... sort and see for yourself sometime (again accuracy cannot be 100% obviously, point at which movemnt > potential for pitchers may differe due to settings and personnell)

Last edited by NoOne; 10-03-2017 at 04:33 PM.
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Old 10-03-2017, 06:18 PM   #5
Bad Scooter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre View Post
1) I do not find the hiring of coaches entertaining and I do not think their influence adds much to my experience, I turn off the coaching model.
I don't mind the process at the MLB level, but hiring at the Minors seems like a real crap shoot. I have noticed slight upticks when I hire Managers that are rated 'Excellent' or 'Outstanding,' but nothing too consistent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre View Post
2) Turn off scouting or change it to 100% accuracy. If oyu are having a hard time with talent start with perfect information then make things more difficult.
Good idea. Might need to try that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre View Post
3) Similar to above, change OVR/POT to 20-80 and the other ratings to 1-100 or 20-100, I cannot remember what the setting is right now.
Yes, I have those exact settings.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre View Post
4) I set my MiLB rster sizes to unlimited ot 35 players. This means I can have a lot of depth so I do not play DL or Day to Day injury manager.
I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying you allow unlimited roster sizes in the minors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre View Post
5) I let the Ai handle lineups and pitching staffs for my major and minor league teams.
I've been doing it for minors and majors as well, but I'm taking a stab at it myself at the MLB level, just to see if there's a difference.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre View Post
6) I do not know your understanding of baseball and how to asses the usefulness of players at certain positions. Knowing that will help.
I consider myself to be quite knowledgeable. I try to keep the middle of my diamond stocked with solid defensive players - 2B, SS, CF, C - and fill the rest with hitters as much as possible. Pitchers, I'm looking for good control more than anything else. When looking at stats, I tend to focus on OPS+ for batters, Zone Rating for defense, and ERA+, WHIP and K/BB for pitchers.
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Old 10-03-2017, 06:21 PM   #6
Bad Scooter
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i look at my minors often.
How often? Once a month? Once a week?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchkenn View Post
i use those horrid arrows as a guideline to highlight potential players, but i go by stats to make a decision.
So stats do play an important role when you promote? I've only been using their ratings.

How long does a player need to put up good stats for you to consider bringing him up?
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Old 10-03-2017, 08:10 PM   #7
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How often? Once a month? Once a week? At least once a month. Usually more often than that. Depends on my major league needs.


So stats do play an important role when you promote? I've only been using their ratings.

How long does a player need to put up good stats for you to consider bringing him up?
Again, depends on my major league needs. If the guy is really tear up the AAA or AA, i'll try to find place for him. But he needs to be doing it for a month or two.
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"I saw a young man leaning on his wooden crutch - He called out to me, 'Don't ask for so much' And a young woman leaning in her darkened door She cried out to me, 'Why not ask for more?' " - Leonard Cohen
"Hello darkness, my old Friend ...." - Paul Simon
Before Mays, before DiMaggio, there was Oscar Charleston.
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Old 10-03-2017, 09:06 PM   #8
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Sorry, my typing can be poor.
#4) I will either set my MiLB rosters to 35 or unlimited. The lower minors I usually leave unlimited. The AI can get baffled by the lower minors and roster sizes.


Have you dug into why you think you are losing? Fly ball pitchers in a HR park? Consistently high BABIP implying a defensive problem? Good AVG poor OBP for batters? Etc.
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Old 10-03-2017, 10:03 PM   #9
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Have you dug into why you think you are losing? Fly ball pitchers in a HR park? Consistently high BABIP implying a defensive problem? Good AVG poor OBP for batters? Etc.
Offensively, I've definitely paid attention to OBP over AVG. Actually, I'm paying attention primarily to OPS+.

As far as pitching goes, I can say for certain that I've not paid any attention to whether they're groundball pitchers, power pitchers, flyball, etc. I'm looking strictly at their ratings and/or their potential ratings.

I'm not really looking at BABIP. I'm looking at ERA+ almost excusively. My thinking is that, since I'm paying attention to the defensive ratings of my players, then BABIP should be okay. Maybe I'm assuming too much.
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Old 10-03-2017, 10:28 PM   #10
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opinion: i'd pay the most attention to their strategies. what era you play in will be of utmost importance to the decisions, too. i also look at their ratings, lol... how i learned to play and i refuse to give it up! reputation is meaningless junk because it's so weakly correlated with anything at all
Would you mind clarifying something? When you say their strategies, for a manager do you mean their in game strategies, like here...


And where do you find the manager's ratings? In the Available Personnel page I only see options for Value Ratings and Coach Tendencies that might be what you suggest. Or am I missing something?

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2) promote players based on ratings, if you can see them. single strongest correlation to what that player is except in extreme situations. i play with the lowest possible accuracy setting, and the ratings on average are still way better at predicting than stats - empirically true, incontrevertable.
Man, I've seen you say this in other spots on these forums. I don't how you do it. More power to you, but I need as help as I can get!

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waiting for a new scouting report after a promotion is a very good idea... scouting is/becomes more accurate at higher minor league levels.
Great idea.
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Old 10-04-2017, 04:43 PM   #11
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yeah, often they steal, when they use closers etc etc... in their main coach profile page.

ratings are not visible. you need commissioner mode on and then go into "edit" the coach. you'll seee handle 3 types of players, teach hitting/pitching/baserunning.

promotions: (lol misread, you were referencing the lowest scouting accuracy... i play wiht a huge budget, lol so great scout and lmax budget helps -- helps reduce my payroll. i don't let myself spend more than 250M on players... still leaving the rest for posterity) the biggest difference i see from normal to lowest accuracy is almost entirely in the lower minors -- rookie and short a... as well as draftees / newly created players wherever tehy may come from in general. i do it as a compromoise without going 100% stats.

do not give 2cents about results... that's how you do it... either the player develops or he does not... when they don't improve they stay there longer until they do.

i've seen plenty of players bat ~.200 in minors go on to be first ballot HoFers. mil stats mean nothing about the future, i cannot say that enough.

if they bat ~.100ish and plenty of k's or other bad things-- maybe i even see a correction to ratings, i adjust to that new information. you can only make decisions with the information you have at the time. hindisght never helps.

player profile -> scouting reports... lists the basic ratings each scouting report on one page... i use month to month. so i see each month updated and can easily see trends - plus or minus.

e.g.
i see them approach ~30/100 contact, i know they're pretty set for Short A.

the only time i reference stats is if they are INCREDIBLY terrible.. not just bad. also, i will look at them when i am unsure of the ratings accuracy. this requires way more than 2months of info be certain of anything you see...

that's the problem with stats and minor league players-- they are in no uncertain terms a different player each month. there is no "suitable" sample size for this situation. you'll never get there without the player changing in some way. clock must restart after any ratings change -- unless negligible relative to this context.

i am more likely to reference stats at lower levels. if i see a guy with ~30/100 contact but he's batting .120 at short a... i may bump him back down... if his ratings are still rising, i will leave them right where they are.

use stats all you want, just be realistic about what it can tell you when the subject is different each month and the sample is not representative of their current ratings. you take what you get as far as this info is concerned. it may even preclude its usefulness in certain situations = pure guess.

*** if you use a small scale for ratings, then you will need to incorporate stats more often to delineate not only scouting inaccuracy but also rounding errors. (not an error in this context, but should be enough to understand what i mean)

Last edited by NoOne; 10-04-2017 at 04:52 PM.
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Old 10-08-2017, 04:24 PM   #12
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i don't let myself spend more than 250M on players...
$250 M? Do you play with budgets off?
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Old 10-08-2017, 04:31 PM   #13
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i play wiht a huge budget, lol so great scout and lmax budget helps --
Do larger budgets in development and scouting really make that much difference?

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do not give 2cents about results... that's how you do it... either the player develops or he does not... when they don't improve they stay there longer until they do.

player profile -> scouting reports... lists the basic ratings each scouting report on one page... i use month to month. so i see each month updated and can easily see trends - plus or minus.

e.g.
i see them approach ~30/100 contact, i know they're pretty set for Short A.

the only time i reference stats is if they are INCREDIBLY terrible.. not just bad. also, i will look at them when i am unsure of the ratings accuracy. this requires way more than 2months of info be certain of anything you see...

that's the problem with stats and minor league players-- they are in no uncertain terms a different player each month. there is no "suitable" sample size for this situation. you'll never get there without the player changing in some way. clock must restart after any ratings change -- unless negligible relative to this context.

i am more likely to reference stats at lower levels. if i see a guy with ~30/100 contact but he's batting .120 at short a... i may bump him back down... if his ratings are still rising, i will leave them right where they are.

use stats all you want, just be realistic about what it can tell you when the subject is different each month and the sample is not representative of their current ratings. you take what you get as far as this info is concerned. it may even preclude its usefulness in certain situations = pure guess.

*** if you use a small scale for ratings, then you will need to incorporate stats more often to delineate not only scouting inaccuracy but also rounding errors. (not an error in this context, but should be enough to understand what i mean)
Good stuff. Thanks!
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Old 10-08-2017, 06:47 PM   #14
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Don't take my words too sersiously, though... i say it that way because most have a very idealistic perception of statistics. mil stats can be useful. they just are very uncertain and huge %error.

i've never tried to compare... but, relative to what i sometiems see in forums i think it helps a good amount...

I can tell you i see a huge improvement when i "0" out the international scouting and dumped it into the others... i have ~6M ML scout, ~8-10M mil and ~10M amatuer scouting. it defintiely helps a bit. just not sure how much. if you have no int'l league, you don't need it... *not sure if it affects international complex info.. i don't go by ratings i go by age for those -- age 18 they get moved. no inaccuracy about that. (haha subtle joke for 3rd world country birth certificates or lack of)

most likely: at some point it's probably negligible returns type situation... add if you have it to spend, because why not?

@scooter

i can afford a 250m budget with an above average market, e.g., detroit. however, i would not be able to max scouting/dev.

now, with a 10-12 like dodgers/yankees i can easily afford 250m and max everythign else and spend like a drunken sailor on personnell. heck, with yankees and default settings you can approach 300M player payroll and still have decent budgets and personnell.

i do not have defaults anymore. i set a specific economic environment to my tastes. it's rational and balanced, i promise (mba-fincance). average payroll in my leagues is ~140-150M-ish. out of 30 teams there are 5-6 larger markets, and 5-6 on teh other end... the rest spread out accross the middle. averages 5-6 market size, depending on league.

i think i did boost ticket price $2 and removed gate rev sharing. 100% penalty for any payroll that exceeds 125-133%.. not sure what i used this particular time... basically i want teams penalized >200M. (similar to MLB in 2017 in many ways but slightly different too) (hmm i've recenlty changed to a hard cap system.. if you can't do both penalty and hard cap, then i switched... think both active at same time though... brain fart)

just saw my first 42M/year player after 12 years of the league (simmed 30years before starting/erasing history, not seed players!). it was the last year of a escalating contract, so it won't happen often. i wouldn't pay that much in my econmic environment unless emotionally attached... not likely for me. so, ~20M-30M for most any superstar/future hof-quality ratings without rare and extreme FA competition. 35-40M for those 1/20years players you see isn't too uncommon for that context, though... i got lucky with one that wasn't greedy, but won't always be that way.

i can clear 400M with default settings and a ~10 market size too. so, it's not my settings that allow me to spend 250M - 5 other teams can reach the cap, and ~18 other teams can easily reach 200-230M too. oh, i set stadium capacity per team too, so no team is getting 'scre^ed'

i typically hover around 220-230M. i never paint myself in a corner. as i near 250, i dump a big contract... and years before i already did the same with another palyer, but i used them to get a good prospect for the current player... they slide right in and rarely misss a beat. ~5years to amass talent at the beginning of any new league i create, then it's just a matter of recycling in an intelligent and well-planned manner.

Last edited by NoOne; 10-08-2017 at 07:04 PM.
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Old 10-10-2017, 01:09 PM   #15
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The ratings that you use to promote/demote: are those on the 20-80 scale?
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Old 10-11-2017, 12:06 PM   #16
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1-100 for the basic ratings - contact, stuff etc.

from that stickied thread.. that would be 100% accuracy.. which isn't likely. so, know the dynamics of how it's applied.

rookie-league players will be incrediblly inaccurate. you will use stats alot with these guys, but likely want ~rookie-year to be 50/50 sure -- all you can hope for.

so, that 18y.o. shows 50contact and hitting 350 after a month, go ahead and toss him in short a and see what happens. if young i'll go slower... if "22" i'd maybe toss him in A-ball and see if scouting "corrects" or he continues to hit well without overeacting to a potential bad start.

point is, early on in their careers is a totally different animal than A-ball through AAA promotions. it's very cut-and-dry at that point and i rarely reference stats except for borderline situations with *important prospects.

accuracy settings will influence this... my perception may be worse/better due to that. i can say for sure that "normal" wiht maxed budgets was very accurate for rookies compared to lowest setting accuracy and max budgets from experience. even at normal it's still skewed to be off more often with the kids.

while it's, and i hate this term but it fits and a bit lame to do, "gamey", you can bump them for a scouting report at a higher level mil league and i'm 90% sure it will 'correct' accuracy quite a bit in many cases (always possibly it doesn't click in any situation of course - try more than 1)

** the rate of improving ratings is the main "rail" for promotions. all else comes secondary or when that is unknown due to age etc. if ratings remain the same, they stay there... the continue to improve, they continue to be promoted.

Last edited by NoOne; 10-11-2017 at 12:19 PM.
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