Joey Gallo getting unfairly punished?

[Argonaut]

I get that the player ratings for OOTP21 are pulled from statistical projections and there's nothing to be done about that. But I think guys like Joey Gallo (well, really only him to such an extent) are getting brutally punished by a combination of the projections and how OOTP works.

Gallo's CON rating is around 35-40, on the 20-80 scale. That's awful for the major leagues and would render most players unusable, but most players don't have near-maximum POW and EYE to compensate.

The projections don't really believe in Gallo's .368 BABIP from half a season last year, so they're expecting him to regress to the .250 BABIP he was hitting previously. I'd argue for a bit of a blend between them, but fair enough.

But the reality is the OOTP version of Gallo isn't coming close to meeting even those poor projections from what I'm seeing. He will struggle to break the Mendoza Line and his overall value will suffer as a result.

Why is this? I believe it's because he's getting double-punished for low BABIP. In real life he has had low BABIP in past seasons because of the infield shift. But this low BABIP rating applies even against a neutral defense in the game. If you then add an OOTP infield shift from opposing teams on top of that low BABIP rating, then he'll never get a hit inside the park.

It's unfair! Free Joey Gallo!

[chazzycat]

I dunno. The game is probably right to be skeptical of his improved AVG last year. That was driven by a huge increase in his line drive%, which is something that tends to fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year so it's not super believable (yet). If he puts up another season of 25% line drives, that could change. But even if that happens, there are still major red flags in his BABIP profile:

- he has got a VERY heavy pull tendency on his groundballs (67% last year)
- he pops out quite a lot


All things considered he is probably never going to have a great BABIP rating or hit for high average. It's all about the OBP and power.

[crowhop]

How do his ratings compare to Stanton and Judge?

[ThePride87]

With such extremes in K rate, BB rate, AVG and power, it wouldn't shock me if he was the toughest hitter to evaluate on OOTP. 2-3 WAR is something I'd want on my team, don't get me wrong. But wouldn't be shocked if OOTP was unfair to him....he's such an anomaly. The ultimate 3-true-outcomes hitter, a graduate of the Adam Dunn academy.

[crowhop]

May have to sim a few seasons and keep an eye on Gallo and see what may happen with him.

When I simmed 20 years on release day, Sano became a guy who would consistently K 250 times...quickly became the all time SO king...but also hit 650 HRs.

[Argonaut]

I admit I haven't done extensive testing on this like I have on other topics. And I'm a Rangers/Gallo biased fan. But just curious what others are seeing in their universes. Is Gallo breaking the Mendoza Line?

Unfortunately for him also, the new Texas ballpark is expected to be a bit more of a neutral park. Lukas has dumped the LHB HR rate down ~15% for Texas so Gallo may hit anywhere from 2-6 fewer homers. We don't know how it really plays yet, and may not find out for a while.

[backupbatboy]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

I admit I haven't done extensive testing on this like I have on other topics. And I'm a Rangers/Gallo biased fan. But just curious what others are seeing in their universes. Is Gallo breaking the Mendoza Line?

Unfortunately for him also, the new Texas ballpark is expected to be a bit more of a neutral park. Lukas has dumped the LHB HR rate down ~15% for Texas so Gallo may hit anywhere from 2-6 fewer homers. We don't know how it really plays yet, and may not find out for a while.

I manage each game and am 2 seasons in. I'm the Brewers, so note that he is playing in a more LHB friendly park.
Year 1: .217 BA, 44 HRs (129 games, took a FB off his finger and missed a month)
Year 2: .237 BA, 65 HRs (155 games)
I'd argue that his low BA is worth it considering the HRs. Obviously he has high BB rate and K rate also, but I have no regrets shipping off the farm to get him in one of my first moves of the save

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

I Is Gallo breaking the Mendoza Line?

I don't understand why you keep attempting to measure him by the worst possible metric for his skillset?

[ThePride87]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I don't understand why you keep attempting to measure him by the worst possible metric for his skillset?

I don't disagree with you, AVG is a terrible metric to base a player on. It's incredible how productive Gallo is/was when he was hitting sub-0.210 for a few years (and may go back to doing next season, 0.368 BABIP is unsustainable)....99% of players couldn't hold a job hitting that low. His walk rate obviously saves his OBP.

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I don't understand why you keep attempting to measure him by the worst possible metric for his skillset?

Basically because if his AVG is even worse than expected, his value will suffer. The walks and homers will be there, but if he can't reach his mediocre AVG expectations then his value even by better measures like OPS and wRC+ is in some trouble.

I watched an interview with Cavan Biggio, and he was asked what stat he looks at to try and improve his game or know he's doing well. He mentioned batting average. He knows he's an OPS guy and that toolset will be there... but if he can maintain an OK AVG then he knows he's doing well.

Anyway from the sounds of it it seems like the single-player OOTP Gallo is rated OK. But my Gallo in an online league might be suffering because all the human GMs are cranking their infield shift slider all the way over.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Basically because if his AVG is even worse than expected, his value will suffer. The walks and homers will be there, but if he can't reach his mediocre AVG expectations then his value even by better measures like OPS and wRC+ is in some trouble.

I watched an interview with Cavan Biggio, and he was asked what stat he looks at to try and improve his game or know he's doing well. He mentioned batting average. He knows he's an OPS guy and that toolset will be there... but if he can maintain an OK AVG then he knows he's doing well.

Anyway from the sounds of it it seems like the single-player OOTP Gallo is rated OK. But my Gallo in an online league might be suffering because all the human GMs are cranking their infield shift slider all the way over.

I mean yeah for a typical player AVG is pretty important. But some guys just don't get their value that way. Gallo is probably the best example of someone who can still rack up WAR while under the Mendoza line. I used him in PT last year and he was always fine on WAR even with horrible averages.

[wallewalls]

I'll be honest, I always bump up Gallo's, Judge's, and sometimes Stanton's ratings when I start a new save. Gallo and Judge (less so for Stanton, I haven't touched his ratings in OOTP 21) never seem to be productive in OOTP. Their only real defect as players are their low strikeout rates, which gives them low contact ratings in OOTP, but that should already be accounted for in the "Avoid K's" rating, which it is, as they have horrible ratings in these categories. The thing is, Judge always has a good BABIP, or at least he has in the 3 seasons from 2017-2019 (lowest in that span is .357). He hits the ball super hard that he might be able to carry a high BABIP consistently. He naturally makes so much hard contact that it makes sense that he'll get high BABIPs, so maybe he is getting a little double-punished because his contact rating is low and his avoid k's is low. Gallo is a little more extreme with strikeout rates near 40%, and a different batted ball profile, but it's still close.

[Argonaut]

My poor Gallo is just an absolute clunker. Only the start of the season, but he's going to need some monster production to make up for it. He may set the strikeout record.

I fear he doesn't have much hope as time goes on in an online league. He'll crush bad pitching, but suffer against any sort of good pitching (STU/MOV/CON all hurt him). With human GMs, the bad pitchers will be weeded out of the league within a season or two.

OOTP20 Gallo at least had some Contact potential to slide into, but not the case here I don't think.

[chazzycat]

he put up 2.6 WAR last season in just 300 PA? That is great!

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

he put up 2.6 WAR last season in just 300 PA? That is great!

That's the real-life MLB numbers. bWAR actually has him at 3.1 WAR for 2019, fWAR at 3.3. Historical WAR numbers from real-life translated to OOTP aren't really to be trusted.

Anyway I'll keep watching but I think Gallo doesn't translate all that well to OOTP online leagues. Hope he turns it around, but would be nice if he had some extra BABIP (and maybe even AvoidK?) potential.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Basically because if his AVG is even worse than expected, his value will suffer. The walks and homers will be there, but if he can't reach his mediocre AVG expectations then his value even by better measures like OPS and wRC+ is in some trouble.

I watched an interview with Cavan Biggio, and he was asked what stat he looks at to try and improve his game or know he's doing well. He mentioned batting average. He knows he's an OPS guy and that toolset will be there... but if he can maintain an OK AVG then he knows he's doing well.

Anyway from the sounds of it it seems like the single-player OOTP Gallo is rated OK. But my Gallo in an online league might be suffering because all the human GMs are cranking their infield shift slider all the way over.

Not related to your theory about Gallo in the game, but just because a player says something doesn't mean it's correct or makes sense... have you ever heard Joe Morgan talk about baseball? Playing baseball and evaluating baseball players are completely different.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

That's the real-life MLB numbers. bWAR actually has him at 3.1 WAR for 2019, fWAR at 3.3. Historical WAR numbers from real-life translated to OOTP aren't really to be trusted.

lol whoops, my bad!


It does line up with my experience though. My Gallo puts up solid WAR in limited PA (he really is a platoon bat).