Contract Extensions make NO sense!

[Viridel]

I have a Reliever who was just awarded $1.5M in Arbitration. He's a guy I'd like to stick around, so I offer him an extension. He wants 2M for a year. Well, that's silly, I already have him for 1.5. I offer him a 6 year deal with a standard 250k escalator, starting at the 2M he wants (ending with a team option of 3.5M)... He tells me he doesn't want to lock up that long (fair enough - although it's not like Relievers aren't easily replaceable), but now his ONE year ask is 3.15M - remember, this is a guy I already have locked up for the year at 1.5.

Arbitration 2019 Salary 1.5M
Wants a 1-Year (2019) contract of 2M
Offer Extension of 2.0 (2019, replacing the arbitration amount), 2.25, 2.5, 2.75, 3.0, & 3.5 (2024, T.O.)
Declines, and now apparently thinks "well, they want me long term, so let's increase my 1-year ask to double what they are already paying me for the year"

Wait, what?

Contract extensions are just absurd. You have no idea what the player wants, or will accept... And if they disagree with your offer, they jack up their initial ask (for one year, while currently under contract) by 50%???

PS. According to his player sheet, he's Arbitration eligible again after this year, with an expectation of 1.7M - so even the information the game is giving me is contradictory.

[ThePretender]

To be honest with you, it's much better than the alternative where in previous versions I could sign any pre-arb player to a 1.5M per year deal for 8-10 years, or an arb player for 5M for 5-7 years.

One thing you have to keep in mind is a player typically has 2-3 arbitration years left after they've been awarded an arb contract, and after that they are a FA. So you have to pay based on that expectation.

So for a RP offered 2.5M extension (arb 2), and you add 250K (arb 3), that's not a good deal for the player who will likely get 3-5M the following season for arb 2 and somewhere in that neighbourhood in arb 3. Then in FA, they could get 6-10M, if not more.

So theoretically, the player could expect to get 3 M and 3.5M in arbitration, followed by 3 years of FA (let's say 7M for easy math). So after a 5 year period a RP could be expected to get 27.5M. Your offer was basically half of what the RP could expect.

So if you're offering 2.5M with 250K escalation, he should deny it - though I wouldn't argue the issue is the length of the deal, rather than you're not offering enough to make it worthwhile.

I know your issue is the player is asking for more money, but I don't see an issue with that either. I'd wait until the following year for arb and make another contract offer then.

It's better than it's been in past versions, I'll say that.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by Viridel

I have a Reliever who was just awarded $1.5M in Arbitration. He's a guy I'd like to stick around, so I offer him an extension. He wants 2M for a year. Well, that's silly, I already have him for 1.5.

No, if he was just awarded $1.5M in arbitration then that is what you are paying him for the upcoming season. If you offer him an extension you are negotiating over the season(s) after that.

So if you just ended the 2017 season, for example, then the arbitration award is his contract for the 2018 season and your extension offer governs the 2019 season and later.

[SFGiantsFan]

That's what you can usually expect to happen though. When you "insult" a player with a bad contract offer, they will want to make you pay for it by asking for more money. I feel this works decently well, because it takes more work to save as much money as possible on contracts because you don't want to risk making them mad and ask for more than the initial demand.

[Viridel]

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

No, if he was just awarded $1.5M in arbitration then that is what you are paying him for the upcoming season. If you offer him an extension you are negotiating over the season(s) after that.

So if you just ended the 2017 season, for example, then the arbitration award is his contract for the 2018 season and your extension offer governs the 2019 season and later.

Yes, but no. Depends when you're trying to do it. I was trying to do it immediately after the arbitration award, but still during the offseason. In this scenario, the extension overwrites the existing (arbitration) contract. It appears that the game doesn't know how to differentiate the two scenarios.

[Viridel]

Originally Posted by SFGiantsFan

That's what you can usually expect to happen though. When you "insult" a player with a bad contract offer, they will want to make you pay for it by asking for more money. I feel this works decently well, because it takes more work to save as much money as possible on contracts because you don't want to risk making them mad and ask for more than the initial demand.

How is giving them more than they are making currently, AND more than the sim indicates they would receive on their next arbitration, AND exactly what they are asking for on a 1-year deal, AND an annual raise on top of that "an insult"?

All I'm suggesting is some measure of transparency. These players are going to have agents. One would assume that the agents would have some inclination as to what the player would want. Therefore it would not be far more realistic for a GM to be able to go to an agent and say "Hey, what do you think it takes to lock up your guy for 5 years?" An agent, being the bottom-feeding scum of the earth, will of course inflate that amount by ??%... But at least there's some concept of what you're dealing with, and then if you want to reduce the offer from there, of course you're taking your chances. I just can't fathom how offering a guy what he wants, but for a longer term, can suddenly justify a massive inflation in his asking price (with NO wiggle room on the term of the contract).

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by Viridel

Yes, but no. Depends when you're trying to do it. I was trying to do it immediately after the arbitration award, but still during the offseason. In this scenario, the extension overwrites the existing (arbitration) contract. It appears that the game doesn't know how to differentiate the two scenarios.

If that's true, then that seems like a bug to be reported, not a fault in the contract negotiating AI. The point of arbitration is that it is binding.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Viridel

I have a Reliever who was just awarded $1.5M in Arbitration. He's a guy I'd like to stick around, so I offer him an extension. He wants 2M for a year. Well, that's silly, I already have him for 1.5. I offer him a 6 year deal with a standard 250k escalator, starting at the 2M he wants (ending with a team option of 3.5M)... He tells me he doesn't want to lock up that long (fair enough - although it's not like Relievers aren't easily replaceable), but now his ONE year ask is 3.15M - remember, this is a guy I already have locked up for the year at 1.5.

Arbitration 2019 Salary 1.5M
Wants a 1-Year (2019) contract of 2M
Offer Extension of 2.0 (2019, replacing the arbitration amount), 2.25, 2.5, 2.75, 3.0, & 3.5 (2024, T.O.)
Declines, and now apparently thinks "well, they want me long term, so let's increase my 1-year ask to double what they are already paying me for the year"

Wait, what?

Contract extensions are just absurd. You have no idea what the player wants, or will accept... And if they disagree with your offer, they jack up their initial ask (for one year, while currently under contract) by 50%???

PS. According to his player sheet, he's Arbitration eligible again after this year, with an expectation of 1.7M - so even the information the game is giving me is contradictory.

In my experience i can never re-sign an RP long-term while not in the last year of arbitration... maybe that's changed in '18?

i have a very good idea of what they will demand based on previous year's demand... so, something is off about your perception. i don't always know who will take an multi-year extension, but even that is fairly predictable.

the initial estimates for next years arb values are supposedly better predictors than previous versions, but i'd still learn on your own and use your own estimates a player of various quality typically scales in similar ways to others of the same quality.

that reliever isn't likely to sign for only a few hundred k more the following arbitration unless his production dips significantly (that's a factor. if he plays extremely well, it may very well nearly double.

role / results / ratings - i say ratings because if you use a SP-prospect as an RP for their first 2-4 years they typically demand SP-type money in arbitration, regardless of their role - that was from '17)

i do use "offer contract" to see who is interested in multiple years, but most of the time arbitration is the cheaper 1-year deal. if a MR starts is going to ask for 6-8+M by the last 2 years - based on initial demands and specualting about his future performance, i know to get rid of them before it is a problem to my budget. maybe that's changed in '18.

understand by position ... by role ... how good they actually are (specualtion as well as possibly direct influence).

[Viridel]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

To be honest with you, it's much better than the alternative where in previous versions I could sign any pre-arb player to a 1.5M per year deal for 8-10 years, or an arb player for 5M for 5-7 years.

One thing you have to keep in mind is a player typically has 2-3 arbitration years left after they've been awarded an arb contract, and after that they are a FA. So you have to pay based on that expectation.

So for a RP offered 2.5M extension (arb 2), and you add 250K (arb 3), that's not a good deal for the player who will likely get 3-5M the following season for arb 2 and somewhere in that neighbourhood in arb 3. Then in FA, they could get 6-10M, if not more.

So theoretically, the player could expect to get 3 M and 3.5M in arbitration, followed by 3 years of FA (let's say 7M for easy math). So after a 5 year period a RP could be expected to get 27.5M. Your offer was basically half of what the RP could expect.

So if you're offering 2.5M with 250K escalation, he should deny it - though I wouldn't argue the issue is the length of the deal, rather than you're not offering enough to make it worthwhile.

I know your issue is the player is asking for more money, but I don't see an issue with that either. I'd wait until the following year for arb and make another contract offer then.

It's better than it's been in past versions, I'll say that.

I don't disagree with anything you said above (except about the
automatic escalation from an arb1 to arb2/3 - especially on RPs)... And if he doesn't like the contract, then by all means, turn it down... BUT:

a) going from 2M 1-year to 3M 1-year isn't negotiation. I wanted 6 years - so let's have a counter-offer reflecting that... That's how negotiation works. Let's say you go to buy a car, and the sticker price is 20,000 - if you go to the sales guy, "I have three kids, if I got 3 cars at the same time, let's say $19000 each? The sales guy doesn't come back and say "No, and now the price for the first car is $30,000". I get that a player is an escalating asset, but if their negotiating mood is "Great", then escalating a demand by 50%, while giving NOTHING back is just crazy.

b) As I stated above, all I want is information. IF I want to offer this term WHAT does the player likely want? Another life example:
If you wanked into your bosses office, and said "I want a raise"
the reply would likely be "Ok, let's talk about it"...
"I want a raise".
"Well, how much"
"A raise"
"What more are you going to do for this raise"
"Give the raise, and we'll see"
"And how much of a raise do you want"
"A raise, but now I want double the raise because you haven't figured it out yet"
"... you're fired."

I don't think that either of these points are unreasonable?

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Viridel

How is giving them more than they are making currently, AND more than the sim indicates they would receive on their next arbitration, AND exactly what they are asking for on a 1-year deal, AND an annual raise on top of that "an insult"?

yeah, they could probably amend that, but it's odd behaviour to do what you are doing... so it's understandable there isn't some built in robustness for offering a contract the next day after receiving an arbitration award. but, since it's possible i guess it should be accounted for.

try after various points after FA begins, like after new year, after preseason and see if something changes. that's the point at which you probably want to do this behaviour as opposed to day one of FA. may not be able to do this with onen players without ruining his mood.. .not sure how long before that resets in regard to negotiating.

that estimate isn't matching how the player's ai is telling them to value themselves. not all info is supposed to be perfectly true in the video game, either... this is not a new thing with ootp, although they did say they improved it... like i said in other posts, it's better to build up the knowledge yourself and not rely on those estimates... as with most things in the game, imo.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Viridel

I don't disagree with anything you said above (except about the
automatic escalation from an arb1 to arb2/3 - especially on RPs)... And if he doesn't like the contract, then by all means, turn it down... BUT:

a) going... <snipped by noone>

Edit: RP negotiating different than all other types... in fact the concpets sometimes reverse as far as what you should do... i almost never think "this guy is asking too much relative to his role" during arbitration... Unless it's a RP, lol. those are the only players i will dump for asking too much in arbitration (dump = sign and trade). this situation typically is regarding a 'better' rated RP, but one that i don't think their total package of talents equate to high-end success. (well-rated, but specualting bad future performance relative to those ratings)

And if i like him... i am willnig to overpay for his role, if i can. so what, you have a MR making 6-8-10M for a 2-3 years... no big deal if the budget can absorb it without problems... otheweise, even they get the sign and trade or a bump an older guy.

until they change something, don't expect RP to take multi-year deals in arbitration years... except the very last one. i can't recall if that is after they sign it, too... lol... they are simply not interested. i'm sure it relates to RL

----end edit... below was initial reply.. first sentence applies to your post, not what i just typed.

that's all reasonable, but that's not how it works in the game... a difference of opinion or perspective isn't a bug.

i know exactly how excellent RP will escalate in my leagues. i'm not the one who is asking the questions i may not have it memorized buy i know a good ballpark figure at any time based on the factors that are relevant.

it most likely relates to how RP as handled in RL... very few sign extensions... maybe the game takes it a bit beyond that, but it isn't unrealistic relative to the context of the situation, despite your very correct generalizations about negotiating above... but, it's not a universally and equally applied concept to all situations.

leverage, demand, supply, blah blah blah... if one side simply doesn't have any motivation to do so, they wont do something simply for the sake of the spirit of negotiating.

you don't like the way it works... make a suggestion. that's all you cna do, and it never hurts. they have made adjustments to these estimates... if you think something is inaccurate about htem or somethign funky is happening, post it in bugs report about yearly estimates and resulting demand and they will dig into it if it looks like something is going haywire. -- very possible, too.

based on your explanation, less likely, though. it's pretty difficult for you to provide all needed infor, too... not criticizing... just the nature of the beast if anyone had posted it.

[Viridel]

Originally Posted by NoOne

yeah, they could probably amend that, but it's odd behaviour to do what you are doing... so it's understandable there isn't some built in robustness for offering a contract the next day after receiving an arbitration award. but, since it's possible i guess it should be accounted for.

I would suggest it's quite reasonable behaviour - this is what the arbitrator said you're worth, so let's sit down and extend this thing and I'll give you a premium to this years salary to do it. Logically speaking, the longer one waits, the less inclined the player would be to extend, no?

But ultimately, above everything else, all I'm asking for is to "talk to the players agent" and find out what the expectations are. Not to ruin the game with complete and total transparency - but just to give an idea on what the player wouldn't be "offended" by - because the punitive escalators for guessing wrong are just ludicrous.

[Viridel]

I just tried the in-season extension thing on the player (so for 2020)

He has a 1.5M contract for 2019
He wants 1.870M for 1 season (370k raise)
I offer 2.0/2.5/3.0/3.5/4.0 (P.O.), for an annual 500k raise, and an AvgValue of 3M (100% what he makes now, and 87% more than he makes with his requested extension)
He declines, and asks for 3.1M (?!?) for one year
I offer him 1.870M for 1 season.
He accepts that.

... This isn't negotiation - this is pulling randomness out of a specific body orifice... And straight up, it's ruining the game for me because there's no reason or logic behind what is going on.

[andyhdz]

You are trying to offer a contract soon after the arbitration is done so I'm not sure if that's throwing off the logic. Does the original arbitration deal get replaced if you sign a player right after?

What I've seen most people do is try and offer a contract right before the arbitration hearing is held. Let's say the offer is $2.5 in arb and he is in his final year before he becomes a free agent. People will offer more for that 1st year (let's say $3.3) and then hope to squeeze another year or two in the contract essentially buying out his final year and getting a 2 or 3 year contract out of it. Some players will go for that some won't. Some owners will try that with 2 years left in arbitration not just 1. By doing that you save money since you are getting him still cheaper than he would with a normal contract extension right before he becomes a free agent or during free agency.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Viridel

I would suggest it's quite reasonable behaviour - this is what the arbitrator said you're worth, so let's sit down and extend this thing and I'll give you a premium to this years salary to do it. Logically speaking, the longer one waits, the less inclined the player would be to extend, no?

edit for andy: you should work on those decisions starting day 1 of offseason. gives time to negotiate before the hearing.. if they reach the hearing without a contract extension, the offer you inputed is official at that point and it will be accepted the next day - 100%. that's the problem with waiting... you have a time limit to get it done for the following fiscal year... otherwise anythign you offer is for the following year.

But ultimately, above everything else, all I'm asking for is to "talk to the players agent" and find out what the expectations are. Not to ruin the game with complete and total transparency - but just to give an idea on what the player wouldn't be "offended" by - because the punitive escalators for guessing wrong are just ludicrous.

well soemthign wasn't clear above... becaue i thought you alredy got a 1 year contract and was offering an extension for the following year?

that's not normal.. a player doesn't sign one contract on december 1st, then another 1 year contract december 5th.

if you waited to the day of or the day after arbitration hearing... well he's already got or about to have a 1 year contract. it's already been submitted based on your choosing, hopefully. you get many days after season ends to input or withdraw the offer.

you can see current arbitration estimate before you get there... the ai poops those values into the offers day one of the offseason.. it won't be off by too much. you can 'offer' to see if they will take somethign cheaper or if you think they will be awarded more in arbitration due to performance.

the answer has been given... if you offer and they respond with a 1 year request during those years... they simply won't sign a multiyear deal unless you actually pay them more than what they'd get in arbitration. (not sure if that is even true... but i'd assume you offer 2years @ 20M to an RP he will take it)

personality is a big part of this, but role sets the template or outline of what will occur in the future as far as escalating values and willingness to sign a multi-year deal.

you want him for multiple years... he doesn't want to sign... it's not about being offended, unless you offered too many contracts he didn't like.

if they continue to counter with 1-year and you keep reducing length instead of asking for the same length... and it still coutners with 1 year... they will never sign a multi-year deal in that situation... you don't get what you want, and that is the problem here i think. sometimes you don't get what you want in this game regarding contracts, not unlike real life.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Viridel

I just tried the in-season extension thing on the player (so for 2020)

He has a 1.5M contract for 2019
He wants 1.870M for 1 season (370k raise)
I offer 2.0/2.5/3.0/3.5/4.0 (P.O.), for an annual 500k raise, and an AvgValue of 3M (100% what he makes now, and 87% more than he makes with his requested extension)
He declines, and asks for 3.1M (?!?) for one year
I offer him 1.870M for 1 season.
He accepts that.

... This isn't negotiation - this is pulling randomness out of a specific body orifice... And straight up, it's ruining the game for me because there's no reason or logic behind what is going on.

He doesn't want a long-term deal. this is normal for RP in this video game.

you have tunnel vision on something that your perception isn't off and honestly quite small potatoes. i won't try to reason anymore with you you can be pleasantly grumpy about it on your own

[Viridel]

Originally Posted by NoOne

if they continue to counter with 1-year and you keep reducing length instead of asking for the same length... and it still coutners with 1 year... they will never sign a multi-year deal in that situation... you don't get what you want, and that is the problem here i think. sometimes you don't get what you want in this game regarding contracts, not unlike real life.

And I honestly have no issue with the player not signing a longer term deal. I really honestly don't. As I've said a few times:
a) When a player declines a multi-year, their single-year ask shouldn't escalate (unless you've nagged them to death)
b) Just give some indication on the type of contract that the player will sign. As a GM, I'm talking to the players agent - and an agent would be VERY happy to tell me what the player will sign for.

That's it, just those two things - then all's good. So in evaluating JUST those two topics, is my suggestion unreasonable, or breaking the game in some way?

Originally Posted by NoOne

He doesn't want a long-term deal. this is normal for RP in this video game.

Missed the point. He wanted 1.87 on a 1Y. I offered longer-term, he said no, and asked for 3+ on a 1Y. I said no and offered 1.87 1Y. He took it.

What's the point in even coming back with a counter (escalated or otherwise) if the player is just going to take what they originally offered? It's an absurd scenario that ultimately shows nothing more than poor programming.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by andyhdz

You are trying to offer a contract soon after the arbitration is done so I'm not sure if that's throwing off the logic. Does the original arbitration deal get replaced if you sign a player right after?

What I've seen most people do is try and offer a contract right before the arbitration hearing is held. Let's say the offer is $2.5 in arb and he is in his final year before he becomes a free agent. People will offer more for that 1st year (let's say $3.3) and then hope to squeeze another year or two in the contract essentially buying out his final year and getting a 2 or 3 year contract out of it. Some players will go for that some won't. Some owners will try that with 2 years left in arbitration not just 1. By doing that you save money since you are getting him still cheaper than he would with a normal contract extension right before he becomes a free agent or during free agency.

i put this in an edit but i don't see it, so i'll jsut respond.. if it magically duplicates laters soemthign was delated...


you want to start doing that stuff day one of offseason,.... don't wait.

maybe offering at different times during tha tperiod between day 1 of offseason and hearing may give better results, but you should dip a toe in the water to test that concept. i'm pretty sure this is where it remains fairly consistent... but offering contracts at different times does typically influence outcome - relative to the calendar year, maybe not the few weeks before arbitration.

in general, you'll be better off working with as much time as possible to get them signed or make decisiosn on their future -- before arbitration hearing... all decisions need to be finalized by that time or you will accidentally get a contract that you may not have wnated or could have done much better with long-term.

personality and rolel will tell you alot about what to expect and where you can undercut an offer. i use 'offer extension' to test the waters even if ihave no specific intentions with that player... maybe it provides an asset i can use to improve my team in any feasible way... so i look.

what yo umentioned about extensitons and buying arb years is good info, but it doesn't apply to releivers... if it's the final year of arbitration, you're not buying any years .. or at least it doesn't amount to much extra if just 1. they are willing to sign multi-years then, because they are no longer arb-eligible, not because you are buying the last year. (other positions may still offer a small discount for paying a few extra M in that last year of arbitration - not rp. it will be a straight up contract that they think they are worth, no discount of if there is it's too small to notice)

if you can extend them the very first year or 2nd year they are eligible, you can typically save tons more money on the extension.. again, non-rp (more for our other friend reading here).

RP (as of '17) would never take an extension... ever (a reasonable one, i never tried 2+years at 20+M/yr, e.g., and who would?)... if that changed cool, but it seems it has not.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by Viridel

And I honestly have no issue with the player not signing a longer term deal. I really honestly don't. As I've said a few times:
a) When a player declines a multi-year, their single-year ask shouldn't escalate (unless you've nagged them to death)
b) Just give some indication on the type of contract that the player will sign. As a GM, I'm talking to the players agent - and an agent would be VERY happy to tell me what the player will sign for.

Two thoughts:

On (b), first, when you choose the option to offer an extension, the player actually provides an opening demand (in the case of your initial example, $2M for one year). So I'm not understanding why you say the game isn't giving you an indication of the type of contract that the player will sign. He just gave you that indication.

On (a), I agree that this comes off as inconsistent. But one way to think about this that may be a little handwavey (but potentially satisfying) is that the player is testing his luck. Because the contract negotiation AI cares about total contract value as well as annual value. In the case where a player opened with a 1 year, 2M demand and you offered a six year, ~18M deal, you just told him that you think he's way more valuable than he was expecting. So even though he'd still rather have a one year contract, perhaps he's thinking you may be just dumb enough to give him $3M. As you saw, though, he'll still agree to his initial, lower demand, assuming you can remember it. (And maybe a feature in OOTP should be a log of offers and counter-offers.)

I agree the presentation and logic could be made tighter, but I don't think it's game-breaking.

[byzeil]

Originally Posted by Viridel

Yes, but no. Depends when you're trying to do it. I was trying to do it immediately after the arbitration award, but still during the offseason. In this scenario, the extension overwrites the existing (arbitration) contract. It appears that the game doesn't know how to differentiate the two scenarios.

No. Once the arbitration amount is awarded that is his contract, If you offer an extension after arb is awarded, even during the offseason, that would be for the season after the just awarded arb year. It doesn't override the arbitration award it adds another year to the contract,

To avoid the arbitration set contract you need to agree to an extension before the arbitration hearings.

This is how it works in game and in real life.

Edit: once you get this message on the day of arbitration you are committed to that contract and can only extend beyond it not instead of it. (and this is during the offseason)