Help with Yo-Yo effect between Gold and Diamond

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

I don't have actual stat logs (if I analyze anything, it's current season only), so that stuff is more anecdotal. I'm probably blowing the numbers a bit out of proportion, but it's obvious looking at leaderboards that RHP with Movement dominate.

In my small sample size of one Perfect League, here's the makeup of the SP with sub-4 ERAs.

66 Pitchers:
21% LHP (Sale, Hubbell, Kershaw, Randy, Keuchel, and Koufax are the only names among the 14 players)
79% RHP

60+ MOV = 98% (a 99 Kershaw is the only exception)
70+ MOV = 56%
80+ MOV = 21%
90+ MOV = 5% (the 3 Keuchels)

Gold+ = 98% (a Barker is the only exception)
Diamond+ = 88%
Perfect = 24%

2 Perfect Pedros absolutely dominate the league as the only sub-2 ERAs.

Tonight I did my second look into the LHP vs RHP in Perfect leagues, and I have to say I can't definitively prove that LHP do worse than RHP. Regardless of R or L, some get worse, some get a lot worse, and some don't get worse at all.

One very interesting player is Corbin who is seen as not playing well in Perfect as well as being LHP. In 34000 innings at Diamond level his ERA is 4.24, in 3000 innings at Perfect, he has a 3.86 ERA. I would think with more innings at Perfect, that number will trend up, but 3000 innings is not a tiny sample size in and of itself.

What I find is that at the higher levels, there is just not as many quality LHP that are worthy of pitching at Perfect level as there are RHP, or as there are at lower levels. So yes, you'll see RHP being more prominent at perfect level, but that's because there are more great RHP worthy of being there. And as for the LHP not doing well at Perfect... they don't belong at perfect based on their ratings (or should not be expected to pitch well at perfect).

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Tonight I did my second look into the LHP vs RHP in Perfect leagues, and I have to say I can't definitively prove that LHP do worse than RHP. Regardless of R or L, some get worse, some get a lot worse, and some don't get worse at all.

One very interesting player is Corbin who is seen as not playing well in Perfect as well as being LHP. In 34000 innings at Diamond level his ERA is 4.24, in 3000 innings at Perfect, he has a 3.86 ERA. I would think with more innings at Perfect, that number will trend up, but 3000 innings is not a tiny sample size in and of itself.

What I find is that at the higher levels, there is just not as many quality LHP that are worthy of pitching at Perfect level as there are RHP, or as there are at lower levels. So yes, you'll see RHP being more prominent at perfect level, but that's because there are more great RHP worthy of being there. And as for the LHP not doing well at Perfect... they don't belong at perfect based on their ratings (or should not be expected to pitch well at perfect).

Here is another look at LHP using Ray's Expected FIP formula based on ratings. Of the top 1% of starting pitchers (478 total starters in my spreadsheet), none of them are LH. Top 10%, 21% are LH. Top 25%, 25% are LH. Top 50% - 29% LH. Top 75% - 32% are LH. In any given Perfect league, it should not be a surprise if only around 2 of the top 10 are LHP.

If I'm reading DKSs post correctly, of the 66 pitchers with a sub 4 ERA, 21% of LHP (14 pitchers). Using the expected FIP based on calculations and looking at the top 66 pitchers, 15 are LHP so 14 is pretty close for a one league sample leading me to still think it has to do with number of pitchers that are good enough to be in a perfect league and the percentage of those that are LHP being the reason it looks like they aren't doing well versus a perceived lighting up of all left handed pitchers.

But then again, my methods could be flawed

[mess]

If you need a high movement bullpen arm, I would suggest the 2009 Hoffman
He's not great, but consistently put's up decent numbers.

Not terribly expensive either.