Underlying probabilities for in-game strategies

[dackle]

When playing out a game at-bat by at-bat, is there any way of figuring out the underlying probabilities for the different strategic choices? For example, runner on first base has a stealing rating of 15, catcher has an arm of 9, pitcher has a hold of 16 and the field is artificial turf. What are the odds of a successful stolen base?

Or the familiar "Do you want to attempt to score? The ball is hit to shallow depth and Dave Winfield has a cannon for an arm" -- how do you figure out the underlying probability of scoring? I understand you can make a subjective judgment that the runner would likely be out, but what if he has a speed rating of 19, for example, and the team is down by a run with 2 out in the 9th. It would help to know if the chance of scoring was 5%, 30%, 70% etc.

I manually played out all 162 games for the 1986 Blue Jays and figured I would just get the hang of the underlying probabilities after a while, but that didn't really happen. Guys like Lloyd Moseby (sb/cs of 32/11 in real life but 15/9 in OOTP, steal rating 17) and Tony Fernandez (25/12 real, 17/13 OOTP, steal rating 15) were thrown out too many times, so I just stopped attempting to steal bases, and the replays started to turn into just pressing the spacebar and watching the game rather than managing it.

Any tips or suggestions?

[endgame]

In RL, the probabilities are a bit more within our grasp, but even then don't lend themselves to quick analysis. In addition, there are still a fair number of metrics that don't always agree completely.

That being said, determining the engine's probabilities is, IMHO, out of reach w/o a great deal of testing and collecting data. Frankly, your intuitive method probably approaches the best estimation of base-killing strengths in the outfield and catcher arm, with regard to steal chances. Best of luck, having really not helped you at all.

[RubeBaker]

When I play OOTP I go to Yahoo! Sports and look at the players' statistics such as lifetime batting average in a certain ballpark, day/night game differences, how they fared against a division and batter/pitcher stats when setting up lineups. I've always done this dating back to the days when I played Diamond Mind and Strat-O-Matic. However, you can't just play the game by statistics alone. I think there are times when you've got to go with your gut instincts and, above all else, have fun doing so. Because if you can't have fun playing a game, what's the point?

[dackle]

Thanks -- maybe it would be easier to let the AI handle baserunning.

I like the flow of the gameplay in OOTP and agree that you can get too bogged down with statistics. For a lot of games I am more interested in managing the bullpen and don't worry too much about the nitty gritty details. But sometimes an important game (eg playoffs) will really pull you in, and you do want to take full advantage of all of your strategic options. In those situations, OOTP can be frustratingly vague -- you're tied for the division lead with 1 game left in the season, tie game in the 9th inning with 2 out, a runner on second with a speed rating of 14, ball is hit to the right fielder with an arm of 15, what do you do? I'd like to know whether I have a 20% chance of scoring from 2nd or a 90%. Maybe it would be better to try and steal third base. Do I have a 5% chance of stealing 3rd, 30%, 80%?

Without knowing the answer to those questions, the strategy just becomes "swing away", which is OK, but when inspired by a good game, it would be nice to start pulling all of the strategic levers.

[RubeBaker]

Originally Posted by dackle

Thanks -- maybe it would be easier to let the AI handle baserunning.

I like the flow of the gameplay in OOTP and agree that you can get too bogged down with statistics. For a lot of games I am more interested in managing the bullpen and don't worry too much about the nitty gritty details. But sometimes an important game (eg playoffs) will really pull you in, and you do want to take full advantage of all of your strategic options. In those situations, OOTP can be frustratingly vague -- you're tied for the division lead with 1 game left in the season, tie game in the 9th inning with 2 out, a runner on second with a speed rating of 14, ball is hit to the right fielder with an arm of 15, what do you do? I'd like to know whether I have a 20% chance of scoring from 2nd or a 90%. Maybe it would be better to try and steal third base. Do I have a 5% chance of stealing 3rd, 30%, 80%?

Without knowing the answer to those questions, the strategy just becomes "swing away", which is OK, but when inspired by a good game, it would be nice to start pulling all of the strategic levers.

When it comes to situations late in the season such as the one you described above, my attitude is "go with who got you there". By that point, you've pretty much got your roster assembled and you know what has worked for your team up to that point in the season.

[dackle]

I just played a game with the AI controlling the baserunning, and it did improve the flow of the game.

[Statsman1]

Originally Posted by dackle

Thanks -- maybe it would be easier to let the AI handle baserunning.

I like the flow of the gameplay in OOTP and agree that you can get too bogged down with statistics. For a lot of games I am more interested in managing the bullpen and don't worry too much about the nitty gritty details. But sometimes an important game (eg playoffs) will really pull you in, and you do want to take full advantage of all of your strategic options. In those situations, OOTP can be frustratingly vague -- you're tied for the division lead with 1 game left in the season, tie game in the 9th inning with 2 out, a runner on second with a speed rating of 14, ball is hit to the right fielder with an arm of 15, what do you do? I'd like to know whether I have a 20% chance of scoring from 2nd or a 90%. Maybe it would be better to try and steal third base. Do I have a 5% chance of stealing 3rd, 30%, 80%?

Without knowing the answer to those questions, the strategy just becomes "swing away", which is OK, but when inspired by a good game, it would be nice to start pulling all of the strategic levers.

I like the idea of knowing this sort of information, being an actuarial science major and loving stats - who doesn't like knowing 'win probability' for any event?

I only fear that one too many "95% success probability" failures will result in my needing to buy a new monitor, and some bandages for my hand.