Ichiro..HOFer?

[bababui]

Is he or not?

[Russ]

I have an unhealthy dislike for Ichiro, but I have to admit he belongs.

[MorseMoose]

Originally Posted by Russ

I have an unhealthy dislike for Ichiro, but I have to admit he belongs.

I hate the fact that he has Ichiro on the back of his jersey. But yes he belongs.

[His Own Bad Self]

Well... I don't know that he should, but he will, and I'm not really bothered by it. Using wins-above-replacement as the most important criterion, I have my doubts. But his counting stats are going to impress all the voters. Plus, I think a lot of people are going to connect him to Tony Gwynn, regarding the type of player he was, and say "If Gwynn, then..." I don't think Ichiro is quite as good as Gwynn was. Better fielder, but not as good a hitter. Are we giving him credit for his play in Japan? If so, it becomes a much easier decision.

I voted "Yes".

[bababui]

If I might add a non-scientific thought..he is an electrifying player. Exciting to watch and a 1 of a kind player. I also give him lots of credit for moving to a foreign country and producing.

[RchW]

Barring some catastrophic drop off or injury, he is a lock IMO. Even with an injury I think his consistent superior performance would make it difficult to keep him out.

Should get his 2000th hit this year in his 9th season.

[Bobbuttons]

Absolutely. No question in my mind.

[His Own Bad Self]

Originally Posted by bababui

If I might add a non-scientific thought..he is an electrifying player. Exciting to watch and a 1 of a kind player. I also give him lots of credit for moving to a foreign country and producing.

Agreed.

[Jonzard]

This is a real nail biter.

[mrskippy]

Ichiro's numbers are absolutely amazing. What if he had started his career in the United States? Given his penchant for 200+ hit seasons, it is entirely possible for Ichiro to break past the 3,000 hit barrier. He certainly will be well past 2,000 and at the very least close to 3,000. He is going to end up with a career average well into the .300s (at .332 now). He has fairly solid SB numbers. His numbers are fitting of a HOFer.

[CMH]

I'd like to know why anyone would say no.


edit: ...Whose name isn't Skipaway and takes advantage of the multiple selection poll.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by CMH

I'd like to know why anyone would say no.


edit: ...Whose name isn't Skipaway and takes advantage of the multiple selection poll.

He's a corner outfielder with a career OPS+ of 118. That's not terribly impressive.

He's an exciting player, but in terms of what he's added to his team over the course of his career, I don't see how he's much better than JD Drew or Bobby Abreu, neither of whom get mentioned in many Hall of Fame discussions.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by mlyons

He's a corner outfielder with a career OPS+ of 118. That's not terribly impressive.

He's an exciting player, but in terms of what he's added to his team over the course of his career, I don't see how he's much better than JD Drew or Bobby Abreu, neither of whom get mentioned in many Hall of Fame discussions.

Contribution to team is one of 6 criteria. I don't know what weighting one would give to it vs the others. Baseball is very much a team sport requiring substantial contributions from many players. I'm not sure I'd like to penalize a player because he may have played on poor or mediocre teams. Looked at another way would you reduce your admiration for another players stats because they played for an offensive juggernaut like the Yankees

Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by RchW

Contribution to team is one of 6 criteria. I don't know what weighting one would give to it vs the others. Baseball is very much a team sport requiring substantial contributions from many players. I'm not sure I'd like to penalize a player because he may have played on poor or mediocre teams. Looked at another way would you reduce your admiration for another players stats because they played for an offensive juggernaut like the Yankees

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I think you might be misinterpreting what I mean by "added to his team". I'm not really talking about whether he (or anyone else) pushed a .500 team into a playoff team or anything like that, just using the phrase as shorthand for his overall value as a player (and, by extension, his playing ability).

I just think, in general, the flashy parts of Ichiro's game (the insanely high hit totals, the often spectacular glove and arm) mask the fact that he doesn't hit for any power and doesn't do a great job of getting on base (his career OBP is only 24th among active players). Like I said, I don't see how he's any more HoF-worthy than Abreu or Drew.

[kq76]

Originally Posted by mlyons

He's a corner outfielder with a career OPS+ of 118. That's not terribly impressive.

He's an exciting player, but in terms of what he's added to his team over the course of his career, I don't see how he's much better than JD Drew or Bobby Abreu, neither of whom get mentioned in many Hall of Fame discussions.

Exciting isn't nothing though. I don't know what fielding metrics you like, but whatever you do like I'm sure Ichiro blows away Drew and Abreu defensively. Then there's the SBs and BA also not taken into consideration in OPS+, which Abreu is fairly impressive at, but Ichiro still wins by a good margin. Yes, Drew and Abreu do have better OPS+, but frankly, they're kind of boring. I mean, you'd love to have all of them on your team (in their prime) because they're no doubt good players, but as a fan or ticketer seller you'd probably rather have Ichiro.

I also don't think you can just ignore his play in Japan and even if you discount it by some, he's a no-brainer when looking at his entire pro career. (I hope future managers learn from his first manager's likely mistake of keeping him in the minors for two years just because he didn't like his swing.)

The only way he's legitimately kept out is if he's a bad guy or a cheater. Being a bad guy / cheater may not have mattered much in the past, but it is covered in "Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played." and it seems to be holding back some otherwise good players now.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by kq76

I also don't think you can just ignore his play in Japan and even if you discount it by some, he's a no-brainer when looking at his entire pro career. (I hope future managers learn from his first manager's likely mistake of keeping him in the minors for two years just because he didn't like his swing.)

If I were ignoring his career in Japan, I wouldn't give him a second thought for the Hall of Fame -- his MLB career is way too short on its own. If anything, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt by assuming he would have been as good in MLB from ages 22-26 as he was from 27-35.

[Skipaway]

It's highly unlikely Ichiro is going to get in purely by the number of wins he brings to the team, unless he plays at a high level into his 40s. He does offer a lot of unique qualities that a relatively generic player like JD Drew couldn't bring though.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by kq76

Exciting isn't nothing though. I don't know what fielding metrics you like, but whatever you do like I'm sure Ichiro blows away Drew and Abreu defensively. Then there's the SBs and BA also not taken into consideration in OPS+, which Abreu is fairly impressive at, but Ichiro still wins by a good margin.

A) BA is taken into consideration in OPS+. Twice, in fact (since it's the primary factor in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage).

2) Ichiro is definitely better than Abreu and Drew in baserunning and fielding. Enough so, I'd say, that it makes up for the huge difference at the plate. The thing is, though, being a Hall of Famer means being significantly better than Bobby Abreu or JD Drew, not simply as good, doesn't it? Is anyone seriously talking about putting them in?

I definitely see the argument that the entertainment value of Ichiro! and the fact that he was something of a pioneer for opening the door for Japanese players to play in MLB is possibly enough to push him into the Hall of Fame (although nobody's lobbying to put Chico Carrasquel into the Hall of Fame for doing the same thing for Venezuelans). In terms on on-the-field ability, though? I don't see it.

[thehatfield]

It's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, isn't it? If so I don't think his Japan numbers should count.

Without the career stats he still fits that "intangible criteria" of having been one of the best hitters for an entire decade of baseball. I'm not sure how seriously the baseball writers treat that "decade of dominance" dealie, but I've seen/heard it mentioned by numerous writers in various places over the years.

I'm on the fence.

[KurtBevacqua]

Strictly by the MLB numbers he is borderline. However there is really nothing in the voting criteria that says you have to go solely by the numbers. Considering how late he got a start in the majors coupled with the fact he's really been a breakthrough player as the first true Japanese superstar in MLB I think he is easily deserving.