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Old 05-06-2014, 04:28 PM   #1
aslanking
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Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 189
2 Player Ratings Questions

I'm in my fourth year of a Fictional League, so i am relatively new to the game. Too anomalous situations arose and just wanted to get some explanation.

I have a 28 yr old 3b with 5 stars overall and 5 stars potential ratings.

He hit:

.317 29 homers 102 rbi in yr 1
.302 33 homers 111 rbi in yr 2
.256 18 homers 70 rbi in yr 3
.187 4 homers 21 rbi in yr 4 - (53 games in - 149 at bats)

What explains this precipitous drop-off? Yes, players have bad years - but THIS BAD? And if this bad, shouldn't his STAR ratings drop? And he's only 30?

Second Question -

I don't use any coaches, scouts etc in my league. Rule 5 Draft comes up and a team takes a AAA pitcher with 1 star overall and 2 potential. I think to myself - what the heck...why take this terrible pitcher, even tho he is 24.

Well, the following year - he's pitching against me - he's 4-0 with a 2.70 era. and his ratings are 3 1/2 stars overall and 4 potential. If there are no scouts - how could the ratings change so drastically? Any ideas?

Thanks for your help
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Old 05-06-2014, 08:03 PM   #2
Déjà Bru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aslanking View Post
I'm in my fourth year of a Fictional League, so i am relatively new to the game. Too anomalous situations arose and just wanted to get some explanation.

I have a 28 yr old 3b with 5 stars overall and 5 stars potential ratings.

He hit:

.317 29 homers 102 rbi in yr 1
.302 33 homers 111 rbi in yr 2
.256 18 homers 70 rbi in yr 3
.187 4 homers 21 rbi in yr 4 - (53 games in - 149 at bats)

What explains this precipitous drop-off? Yes, players have bad years - but THIS BAD? And if this bad, shouldn't his STAR ratings drop? And he's only 30?

Second Question -

I don't use any coaches, scouts etc in my league. Rule 5 Draft comes up and a team takes a AAA pitcher with 1 star overall and 2 potential. I think to myself - what the heck...why take this terrible pitcher, even tho he is 24.

Well, the following year - he's pitching against me - he's 4-0 with a 2.70 era. and his ratings are 3 1/2 stars overall and 4 potential. If there are no scouts - how could the ratings change so drastically? Any ideas?

Thanks for your help
First Question - How are his:
  • Injury history? Anything serious in those years?
  • Morale (assuming you have that option set)? Is he in a bad mood over something?
  • Personality (assuming you have that option set)? Is he stupid or lazy?
All of those can affect his performance. Also, year 4 is incomplete; he may snap out of his mega-slump. Lastly, have you ever seen a player IRL tank after a couple of good seasons, perhaps as the rest of the league "catches up with him" and learns his weaknesses?

Second Question - Some of what I just talked about may apply in reverse. Is this guy happy now whereas he was miserable in your organization? Did his superior intelligence and/or work ethic cause an increase in his potential and performance?

Remember one more thing. The game is set to have SOME randomness in terms of performance and talent changes. Consider these options in Game Settings, Players & Facegen, particularly the last one, Talent Change Randomness. I always leave my settings at these defaults and I advise you to do so as well but I do call your attention to Talent Change Randomness. This implies talent change variability! If you want to eliminate this aspect, put a low number in there:
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Last edited by Déjà Bru; 05-06-2014 at 08:05 PM.
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Old 05-06-2014, 08:09 PM   #3
aslanking
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It all happened the moment I signed him to a 4 year 50 million contract extension. He's extremely popular. Hardworking. And morale is excellent. Very weird. I was thinking of dumping him on someone else. Don't want to pay a player that much for poor performance. Don't have it in my budget.

Also he's my third hitter. Now I've dropped him to 6.
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Old 05-06-2014, 08:12 PM   #4
Déjà Bru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aslanking View Post
It all happened the moment I signed him to a 4 year 50 million contract extension. He's extremely popular. Hardworking. And morale is excellent. Very weird. I was thinking of dumping him on someone else. Don't want to pay a player that much for poor performance. Don't have it in my budget.

Also he's my third hitter. Now I've dropped him to 6.
That's (baseball) life, sometimes. You take the good with the bad. Would you have this game any other way?
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Old 05-08-2014, 02:40 PM   #5
beorn
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One suggestion I would make is moving away from thinking of them as five star or three star players, and instead looking at contact, power and eye ratings for hitters, and stuff, movement, and control ratings for pitchers. (Also fielding ratings, groundball percentage, etc.)

All kinds of things go wrong when you rely on star ratings. So much of what happens can be explained by movements in the more specific ratings. And if you are just starting out and want the ratings to really tell you a lot, use the extremely granular 1-100 ratings.

My guess is that your hitter had something of a ratings drop, based on the fact that the third year was a big drop and the fourth year an even bigger drop. I can't give numbers, but off years can be random a significant percentage of the time. But a falloff one year, and a much worse falloff the second year -- unless Sandy Koufax and a dozen of his clones entered the year in the interim, you're talking about diminished batting skills.

My guess is that this pitcher may not be that good. You are talking a very small sample size. (And going high in the rule 5 draft is not that big a deal.) But it's also possible that he got a talent bump. You'd have to look at stuff, movement, and control ratings to see, but it is not so rare for a 24-year-old with almost adequate talent to get a bump putting him over the top.
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