How to Judge a 1600 Rbi career.

[24Rocks]

I have a 1B that has played a long time this should be his last season, it is with me anyway but I was looking at his career matched with other players to see where he ranks, and looking at his RC/27 It is very low for a player with a pretty good career.

So I'm wondering is that a good way to judge his career?

Here are is Season stats and career matched with Other players

[MrWideFrame]

He had a fantastic career with lots of doubles and home runs. The only real knock on him is that he struggled to draw walks.

[majesty95]

His OBP was so low that it hurts his RC/27 but at this point he had a great career. I may not want him in my sabermetric lineup but I wouldn't deny his accomplishments.

[24Rocks]

But he didnt Strike out till the end of his career but what im worried about is this a Joe Carter type 100 RBI seasons or a HOF type, he was a horrible 1b was DH a lot near the end and alternate seasons when he was younger which i know hurts WAR and vorp.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by MrWideFrame

He had a fantastic career with lots of doubles and home runs. The only real knock on him is that he struggled to draw walks.

That doesn't mean anything except he jumped on strikes and hit them hard somewhere. No one ever became a Hall of Famer because he waited out a lot of walks.

Hank Aaron didn't walk a lot either (never a 100 walk seson) because he hit the snot out of the strikes he saw. Have fun trying to hold that against him.

[24Rocks]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

That doesn't mean anything except he jumped on strikes and hit them hard somewhere. No one ever became a Hall of Famer because he waiting out a lot of walks.

Hank Aaron didn't walk a lot either (never a 100 walk seson) because he hit the snot out of the strikes he saw. Have fun trying to hold that against him.

DO you concider Les a HOF?

[MrWideFrame]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

That doesn't mean anything except he jumped on strikes and hit them hard somewhere. No one ever became a Hall of Famer because he waiting out a lot of walks.

Hank Aaron didn't walk a lot either (never a 100 walk seson) because he hit the snot out of the strikes he saw. Have fun trying to hold that against him.

Why are you trying to compare someone with a .374 career OBP to someone with a .314 career OBP?

[StLee]

Originally Posted by 24Rocks

DO you concider Les a HOF?

I do! His OBP is his only negative at the plate. Lots of hits, homers, and RBI. He may not be "first ballot" since he was not fully well-rounded, but I would think he would get in.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by 24Rocks

DO you concider Les a HOF?

If his numbers are significantly better than his peers, yes.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by MrWideFrame

Why are you trying to compare someone with a .374 career OBP to someone with a .314 career OBP?

I'm figuring Mr. .314 was not being paid to draw walks. The ability to draw walks is not necessarily a virtue.

Let's paint a realistic picture: There's two outs and runners on first and second. Our batter looks at two strikes right down the middle, fouls off a few more and eventually waits out a walk to load the bases. The next guy pops up to end the inning with no runs scored.

Or....Rather than look at two strikes the batter rips one of them into the gap scoring both runners who were running on contact. Two runs score and our batter gets two RBI.

Give me the guy who kills a pitch down the middle and drives in some runs (or at least tries) over a guy who takes the pitch so he can wait out a walk.

If it's a little speedy punch and judy lead off hitter who doesn't have any power and has to get on base any way he can (think Tony Campana), fine, wait out a walk, I don't want a talented hitter capable of driving in runs up there trying to walk to pad his OBP.

[MrWideFrame]

You must have missed the first part of my post where I stated he had a fantastic career compiling lots of extra base hits. So yes, I acknowledged what he was getting paid for.

And nobody walks to pad their OBP. They draw walks to get on base which last time I checked getting on base is a good thing.

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by MrWideFrame

And nobody walks to pad their OBP. They draw walks to get on base which last time I checked getting on base is a good thing.

Driving in runs is even better. If my batter in the scenario I wrote about made an out because he was trying to drive in his team mates I would not consider it a bad thing.

[24Rocks]

Originally Posted by StLee

I do! His OBP is his only negative at the plate. Lots of hits, homers, and RBI. He may not be "first ballot" since he was not fully well-rounded, but I would think he would get in.

Thank you for that he is close you are right.

But did he have Joe Carter type 100 rbi seasons which people have said he has had some of the worst 100 rbi seasons

[snepp]

Hall of Very Good material.

[frangipard]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

Let's paint a realistic picture: There's two outs and runners on first and second. Our batter looks at two strikes right down the middle, fouls off a few more and eventually waits out a walk to load the bases. The next guy pops up to end the inning with no runs scored.

Or....Rather than look at two strikes the batter rips one of them into the gap scoring both runners who were running on contact. Two runs score and our batter gets two RBI.

That isn't a realistic picture, its stacking the deck.

The question is not "BB vs. 2B" -- nobody in their right mind would choose anything but the double. The question is "BB vs. (2B AND all the outs made swinging at iffy pitches)." A guy with a .314 OBP is clearly making a lot of outs swinging at pitches he could let go, and that has to be subtracted from his contributions.


A lot of it has to do with the league environment and the team structure. I tend to build teams that look like Whitey Herzog's Cardinals squads: speed, defense, and one or two big bats in the middle of the order. If I only have one good hitter, I'd just as soon he swing, because I don't have a ton of confidence in the guy behind him. OTOH, if the guy behind him slugs .500 himself, I'd just as soon you take the borderline pitches and give him a shot.


Given the OPS+ figures, he looks to me like a very good, but not truly great, hitter; but he had a long and durable career, and that is not to be ignored: reliability counts. It depends on the context and narrative behind those numbers: Was he a core member of four pennant winning teams, or just the best player on a perennial loser? A plus defender, or a liability? A frequent all-star, or constantly overshadowed at his position by others? Did he have some kind of backstory (heroically overcame injury/troubled childhood/etc.?*) Was a he a prince of a guy, always helping the rookies, or a clubhouse cancer perpetually bitching about his contract? Did he have a signature postseason moment? Was he MVP in '41 or '43?

Assuming 2-4 positive answers to the above, I'd say yes to HOF.



* A guy from the DR with the name "Les Musselwhite?" I'm saying yes to "interesting backstory."

[olivertheorem]

To me, the guy looks like a good-not-great hitter (great hitting for power though), who was the beneficiary of hitting behind guys who DID get on base a lot. He'd be an iffy HoF candidate to my eyes, but I wouldn't throw a fit if he got in.

[JMDurron]

If that's the sum total of the hitters in that league's history, even with his meager OPS and HR numbers *for a guy who had absolutely no value other than as a hitter*, then he probably is a HOFer, even though he'd be a poor choice for the real world HOF. Those are some horrific GIDP numbers, too. The man destroyed nearly as many runs as he created! [/hyperbole]

[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by frangipard

That isn't a realistic picture, its stacking the deck.

The question is not "BB vs. 2B" -- nobody in their right mind would choose anything but the double. The question is "BB vs. (2B AND all the outs made swinging at iffy pitches)." A guy with a .314 OBP is clearly making a lot of outs swinging at pitches he could let go, and that has to be subtracted from his contributions.

We don't know if he's swinging at iffy pitches or not. He could be swinging at good pitches because he's trying to drive in runs to help his team win, but as we know, not every hit ball lands safely. And as I said, if he's in the middle of the lineup and I need him to drive in the high OBP guys ahead of him and not draw walks, then I don't hold those outs against him because he was doing what asked of him.

It all comes down to whether or not the player helped his team win games. OBP may not have been terribly important depending on the makeup of the rest of the lineup. We don't know. We don't know how pitchers pitched to him. There's a lot we don't know. He could be making those outs, but his RBI totals tell me he was driving in runs when guys got on base so he came through when the team needed it.

In other words, you can't look at one just one offensive stat and draw a conclusion. No, he didn't walk much but that doesn't mean it's a negative. Tony Perez is in the HOF and he didn't walk much either. His OBP was .341. But he wasn't there to walk. He was in the lineup to drive in the guys who did and he was one of the best of all time at what he did.

The HOF has plenty of guys who didn't walk a lot. Kevin Youkalis' high walk totals and OBP will never get him to Cooperstown nor should it. His OBP is .382 which is essentially the same as Mike Schmidt's .380. I know who I want playing third base on my All Time Team.

[snepp]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

The HOF has plenty of guys who didn't walk a lot. Kevin Youkalis' high walk totals and OBP will never get him to Cooperstown nor should it. His OBP is .382 which is essentially the same as Mike Schmidt's .380. I know who I want playing third base on my All Time Team.

Kevin Youkilis, 12.2% career walk rate.

Mike Schmidt, 15% career walk rate.

[tejdog1]

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

I'm figuring Mr. .314 was not being paid to draw walks. The ability to draw walks is not necessarily a virtue.

Let's paint a realistic picture: There's two outs and runners on first and second. Our batter looks at two strikes right down the middle, fouls off a few more and eventually waits out a walk to load the bases. The next guy pops up to end the inning with no runs scored.

Or....Rather than look at two strikes the batter rips one of them into the gap scoring both runners who were running on contact. Two runs score and our batter gets two RBI.

Give me the guy who kills a pitch down the middle and drives in some runs (or at least tries) over a guy who takes the pitch so he can wait out a walk.

If it's a little speedy punch and judy lead off hitter who doesn't have any power and has to get on base any way he can (think Tony Campana), fine, wait out a walk, I don't want a talented hitter capable of driving in runs up there trying to walk to pad his OBP.

Swing the bat, who cares if you strike out?

Not saying the guy in the OP did, he actually didn't, but... I mean, you'd be OK with someone being uber hacktastic? Jeff Francoeur like?