Age old question - League Expansion

[pgjocki]

So I want to banter about this topic again as I'm trying to figure out how to not take advantage of the AI when it comes to roster decisions.

I know that I am going to expand the league but of course the AI doesn't and therefore is making roster decisions in a disadvantaged state. I've read before that some people do it the first day of the offseason and others wait until January 1st. I don't know if I should do it immediately after the World Series but before the first day of the offseason as I don't want the AI teams to make contract decisions without knowing that they might be losing guys in the upcoming expansion draft.

I'm going to run a series of league tests but don't know what exactly to look for right away since every game is different and the AI makes different decisions each sim.

Open to thoughts.

[Charlie Hough]

Expansion drafts happen in November in real life, for the same roster management and free agency reasons, so you should definitely schedule yours for soon after the World Series.

[jonlf]

I make all my changes for the following year as soon as off-season starts (salary cap, expansions, etc). Don't see any upside to waiting.
I don't think the game recognizes 1 january as any sort of time mark, as humans do. they mark time with off-season, pre-season, spring training, regular season, playoffs. Happy to be corrected. ymmv

[Brad K]

I don't see how having the expansion draft early helps roster decisions. There's a player who could become a free agent. Should his current team protect him? If not should an expansion team draft him?

How about an arb eligible player? How would an expansion team know if it can afford him if the draft is pre arb?

[Pelican]

Not to complicate your path, but I had pretty much the opposite thing happen. Because, I think, of the way I set up my expansion rules, the existing teams overreacted, and went into a frenzy of trading. This was, in retrospect, because I prefer narrow rules on draft-exempt players (only twelve per team, plus players with less than three year service time). This caused teams to panic and deal players they could not protect. At least it does show that the AI has the capability to anticipate the expansion draft. My expansion was back in the reserve clause days (1961), so free agency was not an issue. I think November makes sense for a draft date. You need to give teams time after the WS to prepare their draft lists.

I wish there were a way to set expansion for a year ahead, and allow the new franchises to field a minor league team or two, and to draft minor league free agents. It also would make sense to allow the expansion franchises to participate in the amateur and foreign player drafts a year ahead, to begin the development process. Of course MLB would never do this, so I really can't blame OOTP for not creating the alternative.

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I don't see how having the expansion draft early helps roster decisions. There's a player who could become a free agent. Should his current team protect him? If not should an expansion team draft him?

How about an arb eligible player? How would an expansion team know if it can afford him if the draft is pre arb?

This is all part of the real-life process, and teams can use it to their advantage. Since the expansion draft happens in November, a ton of players are already granted free agency by the time the draft occurs, so teams don't protect those players. If players are restricted free agents who would require compensation, then teams might protect them.

Arbitration can also play into a team's decision to protect players. If an arbitration-eligible player isn't really living up to expectations, but it's likely that he's going to get more money in arbitration, then he potentially becomes a good candidate to be left unprotected. You can leave him unprotected and hope that someone drafts him and assumes the risk.

Expansion team owners have already paid a huge expansion fee and will also pay a fee for every player drafted from another team. So, budget isn't necessarily an issue. But they have to weigh the potential arbitration cost and the fee to the other team, plus the immediate and long-term value of the player.

To illustrate the potential budget non-issue, here are some examples from the Marlins' free agent signings in December 1992. These were not arbitration-eligible players, but the numbers are telling.

The Marlins signed Benito Santiago at $3.6 million per season, Orestes Destrade for $2 million, Dave Magadan for $900,000, and they signed me for $800,000. So, clearly, they were willing to spend money on free agents. I'm not sure if anyone they drafted in November 1992 was eligible for arbitration, but the risk might not have detracted them much, if they really wanted the player. They were clearly willing to spend.

[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

This is all part of the real-life process, and teams can use it to their advantage. Since the expansion draft happens in November, a ton of players are already granted free agency by the time the draft occurs, so teams don't protect those players. If players are restricted free agents who would require compensation, then teams might protect them.

Arbitration can also play into a team's decision to protect players. If an arbitration-eligible player isn't really living up to expectations, but it's likely that he's going to get more money in arbitration, then he potentially becomes a good candidate to be left unprotected. You can leave him unprotected and hope that someone drafts him and assumes the risk.

Expansion team owners have already paid a huge expansion fee and will also pay a fee for every player drafted from another team. So, budget isn't necessarily an issue. But they have to weigh the potential arbitration cost and the fee to the other team, plus the immediate and long-term value of the player.

To illustrate the potential budget non-issue, here are some examples from the Marlins' free agent signings in December 1992. These were not arbitration-eligible players, but the numbers are telling.

The Marlins signed Benito Santiago at $3.6 million per season, Orestes Destrade for $2 million, Dave Magadan for $900,000, and they signed me for $800,000. So, clearly, they were willing to spend money on free agents. I'm not sure if anyone they drafted in November 1992 was eligible for arbitration, but the risk might not have detracted them much, if they really wanted the player. They were clearly willing to spend.

Thanks for clarifying. I just don't want to take advantage of the AI but now I see that this can play out in multiple ways.

[Mancandy]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I don't see how having the expansion draft early helps roster decisions. There's a player who could become a free agent. Should his current team protect him? If not should an expansion team draft him?

How about an arb eligible player? How would an expansion team know if it can afford him if the draft is pre arb?

The expansion draft will happen the day after free agents file even if you expand the league the day after the World Series ends, no need to worry about any of those decisions.

Originally Posted by Pelican

I wish there were a way to set expansion for a year ahead, and allow the new franchises to field a minor league team or two, and to draft minor league free agents. It also would make sense to allow the expansion franchises to participate in the amateur and foreign player drafts a year ahead, to begin the development process. Of course MLB would never do this, so I really can't blame OOTP for not creating the alternative.

Apologies if I’m missing the sarcasm at the end but that’s exactly how MLB does it. When they added Colorado and Florida, they actually had TWO full years to stock their farm system. Tampa Bay and Arizona had one. I would be very surprised if Nashville and Montreal/Utah/Portland/Oakland didn’t expand the same way. There’s a convoluted workaround in OOTP but it’d be nice if it was a built in feature.