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Old 06-21-2019, 10:32 AM   #1
x McLovin x
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Pitcher WAR calculation

Hi all, I'm not sure if others may have come across this, but for as I can remember in OOTP, it seems like a pitcher with more games started (and equal or lesser stat lines compared to another pitcher) are credited with more WAR. See below for an example of what I mean:

Pitcher A: 20 games started, 100 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.00 FIP
Pitcher B: 1 game started, 100 IP, 2.95 ERA, 2.95 FIP

Which of the above pitchers do you believe should have a higher WAR? Almost always, I've witnessed Pitcher A have a higher WAR (sometimes by a decent margin at that) which doesn't seem to make sense. Unfortunately, I don't have a screengrab, but will be sure to take one the next time I see it happen.
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:03 AM   #2
Fredrocker
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I believe a park factor adjustment is also included in Pitchers WAR IIRC... could be that...
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:07 AM   #3
Matt Arnold
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Starter innings are "tougher" than reliever innings, so putting up equal numbers, starters have a higher WAR.
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:22 AM   #4
x McLovin x
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold View Post
Starter innings are "tougher" than reliever innings, so putting up equal numbers, starters have a higher WAR.
Just curious - I'm assuming he starter innings being "tougher" is based on them pitching some innings while tiring? I think that it can be argued that high leverage relievers pitch the toughest innings on a rate basis. Doesn't a high leverage reliever who pitches 100 innings (to the meat of the opposing team's lineup) at equal quality to a SP who pitches 100 innings contribute more to a team's success?
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Old 06-21-2019, 11:54 AM   #5
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Relievers have a tactical advantage over batters because batters see them once and that's it. Also, relievers can empty the tank against the few batters they face, starters have to save something to last past the fifth inning. Finally, it's much harder to get a batter out the second or third to you face him. In addition you can't show the batters everything you have the first time through the order because you need something else to show them the next time you face them. All in all, starters pitch "tougher" innings.
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Old 06-21-2019, 02:27 PM   #6
x McLovin x
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Relievers have a tactical advantage over batters because batters see them once and that's it. Also, relievers can empty the tank against the few batters they face, starters have to save something to last past the fifth inning. Finally, it's much harder to get a batter out the second or third to you face him. In addition you can't show the batters everything you have the first time through the order because you need something else to show them the next time you face them. All in all, starters pitch "tougher" innings.
Thanks, all fair points, but I would say that a lot of this rationale applies mostly to real world and not the OOTP world. Does not showing them all your pitches early in the game so you can pull them out of your back pocket later in the game even a thing in OOTP? Otherwise, if I recall correctly, I believe it has been said in some threads that the developers have implemented a times through the order penalty for pitchers, so I do agree with the majority of the above.
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Old 06-21-2019, 08:43 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x McLovin x View Post
Hi all, I'm not sure if others may have come across this, but for as I can remember in OOTP, it seems like a pitcher with more games started (and equal or lesser stat lines compared to another pitcher) are credited with more WAR. See below for an example of what I mean:

Pitcher A: 20 games started, 100 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.00 FIP
Pitcher B: 1 game started, 100 IP, 2.95 ERA, 2.95 FIP

Which of the above pitchers do you believe should have a higher WAR? Almost always, I've witnessed Pitcher A have a higher WAR (sometimes by a decent margin at that) which doesn't seem to make sense. Unfortunately, I don't have a screengrab, but will be sure to take one the next time I see it happen.

I'm sorry but this example just bugs me. Pitcher B with 1 start and 100 IP? Could you not have done it as 15 starts and 100 IP?
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Old 06-22-2019, 07:40 AM   #8
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Olivertheorem makes an interesting point and I will admit that I do not know how OOTP computes WAR for pitchers.
As far as Relievers vs Starters ERA. Relievers also have a big advantage in that they frequently only have to get 1 or 2 out to complete the inning without giving a earned run charged to them. For example, a starter leaves the game with 2 outs after walking 3 batters leaving the bases loaded but no scores for the inning. Reliever comes in, walks 3 batters before getting the third out. The starting pitcher will show he gave up 3 earned runs for that 2/3 inning while the relievers shows he gave up O earned runs for his 1/3 inning pitched. I think baseball or someone recognized earned runs fo relievers does not show the story and game up with the blown save terminology.
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Old 06-22-2019, 01:38 PM   #9
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I'm fairly certain the only pitchers who ever get a 'boost' to their WAR are those that pitch in high leverage situations. They are closers/setters. I've never seen any calculation that gives a boost to starters. That isn't to say it never happens, as most, if not all, MLB teams have their own formula(s) for determining WAR.
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Old 06-22-2019, 06:34 PM   #10
Matt Arnold
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I should have clarified before, a large reason why SP war is higher is due to the replacement level. Basically, it's harder to be a starter, so WAR gives them a boost. Fangraphs digs into it a little if you click through the links on this article: https://library.fangraphs.com/war/ca...-war-pitchers/
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Old 06-22-2019, 07:27 PM   #11
One Great Matrix
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x McLovin x View Post
Hi all, I'm not sure if others may have come across this, but for as I can remember in OOTP, it seems like a pitcher with more games started (and equal or lesser stat lines compared to another pitcher) are credited with more WAR. See below for an example of what I mean:

Pitcher A: 20 games started, 100 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.00 FIP
Pitcher B: 1 game started, 100 IP, 2.95 ERA, 2.95 FIP

Which of the above pitchers do you believe should have a higher WAR? Almost always, I've witnessed Pitcher A have a higher WAR (sometimes by a decent margin at that) which doesn't seem to make sense. Unfortunately, I don't have a screengrab, but will be sure to take one the next time I see it happen.
Any pitcher starts a game is always responsible for all 3 outs in an inning ERA-wise. Well, not always, but sometimes a reliever can get 1 or 2 outs and clear the bases, while a starter is responsible for everyone he lets get on until the 3rd out.
& it being based on wins maybe 6+ innings x 20-25 or whatever is more significant than 2-3 innings x 45-55 games.
...the number will go up as long as he's posting positive WAR with pitching time.


It's a separate number, not necessarily a perfect or the best one...

Pitcher A 149.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.7 WAR
Pitcher B 134.0 IP, 5.57 ERA, 1.8 WAR

Something ticked pitcher B's above pitcher A's. Besides ERA, most of his numbers are better, vhich probably factored in.
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Last edited by One Great Matrix; 06-22-2019 at 10:28 PM.
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