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01-07-2019, 02:49 PM | #21 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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01-07-2019, 02:50 PM | #22 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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What are the ratings on that card? I saw one up for auction last week but I forgot to write it down. I remember thinking it was really good (and really expensive).
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01-07-2019, 03:22 PM | #23 | |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 777
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Quote:
Oh, have you seen any Dolf Luque's yet? I have the only one I've ever seen. Never seen him in the Auction House. Until his middling Perfect season last week, I would have placed him Top 5 of players I've seen. His career stats back it up. Last edited by DonkeyKongSr; 01-07-2019 at 03:24 PM. |
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01-07-2019, 03:29 PM | #24 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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01-07-2019, 03:30 PM | #25 |
Minors (Single A)
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 90
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Is this database available for all to see??? Just curious.
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01-07-2019, 03:33 PM | #26 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 777
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Here's my Dolf stats. As you can see, insanely good before last season. 1st, 2nd and 3rd in Cy Young + 2 Top 3 MVP finishes.
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01-07-2019, 03:51 PM | #27 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Indiana
Posts: 9,798
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01-07-2019, 03:54 PM | #28 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Indiana
Posts: 9,798
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I have 97 Randy Johnson at #12 on my list. He is my highest-rated pitcher and he was great for me in diamond level last season.
I have Mike Scott #27 which is not too far off from ASURay. |
01-07-2019, 03:57 PM | #29 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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It's not in a very legible format at the moment. I kind of put it together haphazardly. My current formula for predicted_FIP is:
FIP_p = 9.468 - .022*STUFF - .033*MOV - .027*CON The intercept is biased since I used data mostly from Bronze/Silver/Gold leagues so the resulting FIP estimates are likely too low. Right now I just use the model for comparing SP to one another rather than for predicting their actual performance. The estimates might be pretty good if you're in a lower league, though. I'll update things after this week maybe. Note that this a very simple regression model. Nothing fancy. It assumes the effect of the ratings is linear (e.g., the difference between a 50 and 60 rating for MOV is the same as the difference between a 90 and 100 rating). The R^2 for the model is ~.62, so good but not great. Last edited by ASURay; 01-07-2019 at 03:58 PM. |
01-07-2019, 04:02 PM | #30 |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 413
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I like the fact that you value both movement and control high.
Do you think individual pitch quality is important? |
01-07-2019, 04:03 PM | #31 |
Hall Of Famer
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01-07-2019, 04:26 PM | #32 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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Quote:
FIP_p = 10.18 - .016*STUFF - .043*MOV - .024*CON Interesting that CON became more effective while Stuff lost effectiveness as compared to fitting the model using data from lower leagues. The estimates almost seem too high now. THe 91 OVR Vida Blue card, for example has a predicted FIP of 4.80. Anyways, the Top 10 using this new model is: 1) 100 Pedro 2) 93 Maddux 3) 96 Brown 4) 97 Hubbell 5) 96 Greinke 6) 94 Maddux 7) 96 Young 8) 97 Pedro 9) 100 Clemens 10) 97 Newhouser Last edited by ASURay; 01-07-2019 at 04:48 PM. |
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01-07-2019, 04:29 PM | #33 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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I have a PhD in statistics and work as a research methodologist when I'm not playing OOTP/PT, so this is kind of my thing. That said, I doubt it gives me much of an advantage. At the end of the day, PP is king.
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01-07-2019, 04:30 PM | #34 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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I haven't considered that at all. We could use some machine learning techniques to try and integrate all the info (velocity, individual pitch ratings, GB/FB tendencies, arm slot, etc.) but, in the end we'd be limited by the relatively small amount of available data.
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01-07-2019, 04:39 PM | #35 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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Quote:
96 Kevin Brown (#3 new list / #6 old list) 94 Roger Clemens (#15 / #17) 96 John Smoltz (#20 / #18) 100 Chris Sale (#25 / #20) 96 Pedro (#29 / #25) All of the cards that would help me (so, cards in the top 25 or so) are very expensive. The only sub-95 cards that would improve my rotation are the 93 Alexander (#18), 93 Maddux (#2), 94 Maddux (#6), 94 Blanton (#13), and 93 Blyleven (#22). Those are all 30K+, no? The 92 Spahn (#26) is actually a bit better than the 96 Pedro. I have that card as my LR out of the 'pen. |
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01-07-2019, 04:49 PM | #36 | |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 777
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01-07-2019, 04:50 PM | #37 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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01-07-2019, 05:02 PM | #38 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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01-07-2019, 05:06 PM | #39 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,335
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Any opinions of good starters in the under 10K range that are better than Barker, Dierker, Syndergaard, Corbin, etc?
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01-07-2019, 05:13 PM | #40 |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 413
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Spud Chandler's ratings come in at STU:84 MOV:82 CON:81 which calculates at 2.727 or something thereabouts. How does that slot in with your other calculations, ASURay?
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