Are you getting 30% historical cards?

bailey · 03-25-2019, 02:36 PM

I opened 88 packs including the 6 starters. That's 528 cards, but only 66 historical cards for 12.5%. 30% would have been 158. Are there any stats people out there who could tell me how unlucky I have been?

atabakin · 03-25-2019, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

I opened 88 packs including the 6 starters. That's 528 cards, but only 66 historical cards for 12.5%. 30% would have been 158. Are there any stats people out there who could tell me how unlucky I have been?

What's your breakdown by level? It seems that the live bronze and iron are more frequent than silver and above, though I haven't crunched my personal numbers.

Warhawk · 03-25-2019, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

Are there any stats people out there who could tell me how unlucky I have been?

Short version, if it was 30% flat, irrespective of card level, that would be in the "if everyone in the world played the game you'd still probably be the unluckiest" realm.

However, if the historical cards aren't evenly distributed across the card levels, as suggested, then it's not at all surprising.

mrbucket · 03-25-2019, 02:57 PM

I haven't opened as many packs as you but out of the 66 cards I've pulled from packs, 45 have been live so that leaves 21 as non-live or 31.8%

Binomial distributions suggest you've been really unlucky if the 30% amount is true.

bailey · 03-25-2019, 03:07 PM

OK, I see that now, thanks. The % of iron and bronze cards that are historical are no where near 30%. Of the 33 silver and above cards I drew 33% were historical, so I guess I'm ahead of the game.

bailey · 03-25-2019, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrbucket

I haven't opened as many packs as you but out of the 66 cards I've pulled from packs, 45 have been live so that leaves 21 as non-live or 31.8%

Binomial distributions suggest you've been really unlucky if the 30% amount is true.

I think the starter packs have a higher percentage of historical cards.

Markus Heinsohn · 03-26-2019, 09:59 AM

It's 70/30 only for cards rated bronze or higher. We have very few historical cards rated lower than 60, so having a 70/30 spilt for those would result in a massive number of duplicates.

Splitter24 · 03-26-2019, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

It's 70/30 only for cards rated bronze or higher. We have very few historical cards rated lower than 60, so having a 70/30 spilt for those would result in a massive number of duplicates.

Thanks for upping the historical percentage. Even if it's a player that doesn't help my team or any potential tourney team, it still brings a smile to my face seeing some of the historic guys that are popping up in my packs.

stl jason · 03-26-2019, 10:41 AM

only tracking packs/players/etc on one of my teams, and have only opened the starter packs / extra gold pack and one purchased pack with the initial 1000 points. From that, I have:

Live 2019 MLB: 66.7% (32 cards)
Unsung Heroes: 12.5% (6 cards)
Historical All-Star: 10.4% (5 cards)
Hardware Heroes: 4.2% (2 cards)
One Hit Wonder: 4.2% (2 cards)
Record Breaker: 2.1% (1 card)

2 gold / 5 silver / 14 bronze / 27 iron

so a pretty good mix.... the nice part is, the great and glorious PT gods saw fit to give this team 3 pre-ww2 players in that bunch (as this is my pre-ww2 themed squad, the more the merrier)

Orcin · 03-26-2019, 11:01 AM

I have opened 58 packs so far. I have pulled a total of 40 historical cards that are bronze or higher. That is 27.8% of the 144 bronze or higher cards that I have pulled, very close to a 70/30 split on a small sample.

mpatt75 · 03-26-2019, 06:46 PM

No. The 6 packs I have opened with one of my teams, I think all of them have been Iron and Bronze.

Including the last pack I opened just now, the highest rated card was a 60 overall Rookie Sensation Craig McMurty for my Silver in the pack.

Most of my Silvers have been at, or under, 65 it seems as well.

I'll keep trying, they are my one pack opening team.

mwadsit · 03-26-2019, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpatt75

No. The 6 packs I have opened with one of my teams, I think all of them have been Iron and Bronze.

Including the last pack I opened just now, the highest rated card was a 60 overall Rookie Sensation Craig McMurty for my Silver in the pack.

Most of my Silvers have been at, or under, 65 it seems as well.

I'll keep trying, they are my one pack opening team.

Silvers should all be between 70-79...

mpatt75 · 03-26-2019, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mwadsit

Silvers should all be between 70-79...

Bronze and Iron. You know what I meant...

03-25-2019, 02:36 PM	#1
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,127	Are you getting 30% historical cards? I opened 88 packs including the 6 starters. That's 528 cards, but only 66 historical cards for 12.5%. 30% would have been 158. Are there any stats people out there who could tell me how unlucky I have been? __________________

03-25-2019, 02:57 PM	#4
mrbucket All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: New Zealand Posts: 860	I haven't opened as many packs as you but out of the 66 cards I've pulled from packs, 45 have been live so that leaves 21 as non-live or 31.8% Binomial distributions suggest you've been really unlucky if the 30% amount is true. __________________ My Dynasty Report: A Minor Dose of Chaos: A Random Debut League

03-25-2019, 03:07 PM	#5
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,127	OK, I see that now, thanks. The % of iron and bronze cards that are historical are no where near 30%. Of the 33 silver and above cards I drew 33% were historical, so I guess I'm ahead of the game. __________________

03-26-2019, 09:59 AM	#7
Markus Heinsohn Developer OOTP Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Germany Posts: 24,738	It's 70/30 only for cards rated bronze or higher. We have very few historical cards rated lower than 60, so having a 70/30 spilt for those would result in a massive number of duplicates. __________________ Buy Out of the Park Baseball 25 now! Download OOTP Go 25 for iOS Download OOTP Go 25 for Android

03-26-2019, 10:41 AM	#9
stl jason Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 9,943	only tracking packs/players/etc on one of my teams, and have only opened the starter packs / extra gold pack and one purchased pack with the initial 1000 points. From that, I have: Live 2019 MLB: 66.7% (32 cards) Unsung Heroes: 12.5% (6 cards) Historical All-Star: 10.4% (5 cards) Hardware Heroes: 4.2% (2 cards) One Hit Wonder: 4.2% (2 cards) Record Breaker: 2.1% (1 card) 2 gold / 5 silver / 14 bronze / 27 iron so a pretty good mix.... the nice part is, the great and glorious PT gods saw fit to give this team 3 pre-ww2 players in that bunch (as this is my pre-ww2 themed squad, the more the merrier) __________________ Beer League dynasty thread - knock 'em back!

03-26-2019, 11:01 AM	#10
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,798	I have opened 58 packs so far. I have pulled a total of 40 historical cards that are bronze or higher. That is 27.8% of the 144 bronze or higher cards that I have pulled, very close to a 70/30 split on a small sample.

03-26-2019, 06:46 PM	#11
mpatt75 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Mishawaka, Indiana Posts: 67	No. The 6 packs I have opened with one of my teams, I think all of them have been Iron and Bronze. Including the last pack I opened just now, the highest rated card was a 60 overall Rookie Sensation Craig McMurty for my Silver in the pack. Most of my Silvers have been at, or under, 65 it seems as well. I'll keep trying, they are my one pack opening team.