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Old 07-17-2012, 06:55 PM   #61
Jamie
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I see base running blunders didn't get fixed from 12. People don't see it unless they play out the games. REally annoying especially when they don't score from 2nd 2 out and base hit to the outfield or tag up from 3rd on a long fly.
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Old 07-17-2012, 07:03 PM   #62
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The game design is intended (I believe) to do nothing more than create a simple decision for the player and the AI (particularly the AI):

(1) Play Inf Out for the higher probability out (or DP) and concede the run; or (2) play In which will stop the runner advancing if the ball is fielded in time for an out (or 2), but with a slightly greater risk of a hit scoring the run. It doesn't help much to imagine where the players are actually standing when the ball is put in play.

While I am somewhat bothered by the DP situation, I found that the greater problem was how often runners scored from 3B on GBs that were fielded. This occurred significantly more often in OOTP than IRL (I actually collected stats on this). This is because, given the default settings in Team Strategies, the AI plays Inf In only in late innings in close games. However, IRL, teams will often set themselves to stop run scoring much earlier in games.

For this reason, I set the Infield In strategy sliders for all the teams in my league to a much higher setting. The result is more realistic run scoring numbers. Although hits may increase somewhat initially (not much), the LTMs correct for this in subsequent seasons. The DP situation in the OP does occur slightly more often, but it's not all that common to start with.

FWIW
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Old 07-17-2012, 10:08 PM   #63
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When was the last time you saw the infield playing in and a fielder located in 4M ?
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:49 AM   #64
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If he had done that I would have thrown him out at the plate and it would have likely been a 4-2-3 DP and there would still be two outs but they'd only have a runner on second.
No way this DP combo ever happens with 1st & 3rd and less than two outs in any higher level competition. If the runner on 3rd is doing his job, even if he gets tagged out, the catcher shouldn't be left standing or in any position to make a throw to first. At the very least he should get caught in a rundown to allow the other runners to advance as far as possible.
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:27 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by blueturf View Post
No way this DP combo ever happens with 1st & 3rd and less than two outs in any higher level competition. If the runner on 3rd is doing his job, even if he gets tagged out, the catcher shouldn't be left standing or in any position to make a throw to first. At the very least he should get caught in a rundown to allow the other runners to advance as far as possible.
LOL. Their little left fielder knock down our catcher? Only if he was driving a car. At best if he had gone on contact he would have been out at the plate with runners on 1st and 2nd.

I can't talk about pro ball. Only played college. And so help me I'm never going to talk about anything I did in college ever again given the collection of Monday Morning Quarterbacks this forum has.

But I'll tell you one thing. BIG17EASY played the game.
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Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 07-18-2012, 08:09 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by blueturf View Post
No way this DP combo ever happens with 1st & 3rd and less than two outs in any higher level competition. If the runner on 3rd is doing his job, even if he gets tagged out, the catcher shouldn't be left standing or in any position to make a throw to first. At the very least he should get caught in a rundown to allow the other runners to advance as far as possible.
Correct. He either runs into the catcher or if the throw beats him by a lot he forces a pickle. The double play possibility is slim to none. Cant say Ive ever seen a double play like this in the 25+ years watching major league baseball. Now if a force was at home plate its a different story.

The most likely scenario here if the runner held was the runner on first would move up to 2nd and the runner on 3rd would stay. So 2nd and 3rd with however many outs would be the most common scenario.

And yes as someone who plays out games this is very annoying when I see double plays turned and the runner on 3rd not scoring. It may happen infrequently but it happens far too often in the games being played out.

Last edited by jbergey22; 07-18-2012 at 08:18 PM.
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Old 07-18-2012, 08:25 PM   #67
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It may happen infrequently but it happens far too often in the games being played out.
Addendum to Murphy's Law: In OOTP, whatever you see happening when you play out games in OOTP, if it annoys you, will seem to happen way too often.

Addendum to the Addendum: if your team is losing, this behavior will appear to be happening in every game.
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Old 07-18-2012, 08:53 PM   #68
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Correct. He either runs into the catcher or if the throw beats him by a lot he forces a pickle. The double play possibility is slim to none. Cant say Ive ever seen a double play like this in the 25+ years watching major league baseball. Now if a force was at home plate its a different story.

The most likely scenario here if the runner held was the runner on first would move up to 2nd and the runner on 3rd would stay. So 2nd and 3rd with however many outs would be the most common scenario.

And yes as someone who plays out games this is very annoying when I see double plays turned and the runner on 3rd not scoring. It may happen infrequently but it happens far too often in the games being played out.
If he'd gone on contact he'd have been out. Most likely our catcher could have
turned two. Him staying at third meant a guaranteed double play. I was there.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 07-18-2012, 08:55 PM   #69
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And if he ran into our catcher he would have bounced off and then have to have been helped off the field.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

Five thousand thanks for a non-modder? I never thought I'd see the day. Thank you for your support.
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Old 07-18-2012, 11:05 PM   #70
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And if he ran into our catcher he would have bounced off and then have to have been helped off the field.
Not if the runner was Prince Fielder.
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Old 07-19-2012, 01:27 PM   #71
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Double play ball.. runner on third base doesn't come home, DP is made and now I'm sitting with a runner on third base and two outs?
To get back to the OP... with Markus open for suggestions for bug fixes for the next update and it usually takes historical numbers to get his attention, I wanted to look at actual results from this scenario. Using the great Play Index feature on Baseball-Reference, I went through the play index for the last 10 years looking at instances with runners at 1st and 3rd and no outs where the subsequent play results in a ground ball double play that was hit to 2B or SS. This scenario occurred 643 times over the course of the 10 seasons I researched. Of those 643 cases, the runner scored 625 times. Occasionally the runner was thrown out at home, and there were a few instances of runner interference that sent him back to third. Only 13 times (~2%) did the runner elect to stay at 3rd base.

Here are the 18 situations where the runner didn't score:

Date Tm Opp Score Inn Play Description
6/6/2012 ATL @MIA ahead 0-1 t4 2B-SS-1B/Interference by Runner
8/8/2011 PIT @SFG ahead 0-5 t9 2B-SS/Forceout at 2B (2B-1B); McCutchen out at Hm/SS-C
6/30/2010 TEX @LAA ahead 4-6 t8 2B-SS-1B (Weak 2B); Hamilton stays at 3B
9/7/2010 MIL STL ahead 0-2 b2 2B-SS-1B (2B-1B); Lucroy stays at 3B
6/10/2009 CIN @WSN tied 2-2 t12 2B-1B-SS-2B-SS; Bruce stays at 3B
6/13/2009 PIT DET ahead 3-9 b6 2B-1B-SS (2B-1B); Duke stays at 3B
7/20/2009 COL ARI ahead 1-9 b4 2B-SS-1B/Interference called; Barmes stays at 3B
8/13/2008 COL ARI ahead 2-4 b6 SS-2B-1B (Weak SS); Hawpe stays at 3B
8/24/2008 DET @KCR down 7-3 t7 2B-SS-1B; Granderson stays at 3B
7/20/2007 STL @ATL ahead 1-3 t8 2B-1B; Taguchi out at Hm/1B-C; Molina to 2B
8/24/2007 PHI SDP ahead 2-3 b4 SS-2B-1B/Interference called (Weak SS); Victorino stays at 3B
4/17/2005 ARI @WSN ahead 1-3 t7 SS-1B; Counsell stays at 3B
6/11/2005 NYY @STL ahead 0-4 t9 SS-2B-1B; Jeter stays at 3B
6/23/2005 FLA @ATL ahead 0-7 t8 SS-2B-1B; Lo Duca stays at 3B
8/29/2005 BAL OAK tied 5-5 b8 SS-1B; Matos stays at 3B
9/13/2005 SEA LAA tied 1-1 b9 2B-CF-1B; Reed stays at 3B
5/8/2004 OAK MIN tied 2-2 b8 SS-2B-1B; Durazo stays at 3B
6/8/2004 OAK CIN ahead 6-10 b8 SS-2B-1B; Dye stays at 3B

Last edited by blueturf; 07-19-2012 at 01:34 PM.
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Old 07-19-2012, 01:51 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by blueturf View Post
To get back to the OP... with Markus open for suggestions for bug fixes for the next update and it usually takes historical numbers to get his attention, I wanted to look at actual results from this scenario. Using the great Play Index feature on Baseball-Reference, I went through the play index for the last 10 years looking at instances with runners at 1st and 3rd and no outs where the subsequent play results in a ground ball double play that was hit to 2B or SS. This scenario occurred 643 times over the course of the 10 seasons I researched. Of those 643 cases, the runner scored 625 times. Occasionally the runner was thrown out at home, and there were a few instances of runner interference that sent him back to third. Only 13 times (~2%) did the runner elect to stay at 3rd base.

Here are the 18 situations where the runner didn't score:

Date Tm Opp Score Inn Play Description
6/6/2012 ATL @MIA ahead 0-1 t4 2B-SS-1B/Interference by Runner
8/8/2011 PIT @SFG ahead 0-5 t9 2B-SS/Forceout at 2B (2B-1B); McCutchen out at Hm/SS-C
6/30/2010 TEX @LAA ahead 4-6 t8 2B-SS-1B (Weak 2B); Hamilton stays at 3B
9/7/2010 MIL STL ahead 0-2 b2 2B-SS-1B (2B-1B); Lucroy stays at 3B
6/10/2009 CIN @WSN tied 2-2 t12 2B-1B-SS-2B-SS; Bruce stays at 3B
6/13/2009 PIT DET ahead 3-9 b6 2B-1B-SS (2B-1B); Duke stays at 3B
7/20/2009 COL ARI ahead 1-9 b4 2B-SS-1B/Interference called; Barmes stays at 3B
8/13/2008 COL ARI ahead 2-4 b6 SS-2B-1B (Weak SS); Hawpe stays at 3B
8/24/2008 DET @KCR down 7-3 t7 2B-SS-1B; Granderson stays at 3B
7/20/2007 STL @ATL ahead 1-3 t8 2B-1B; Taguchi out at Hm/1B-C; Molina to 2B
8/24/2007 PHI SDP ahead 2-3 b4 SS-2B-1B/Interference called (Weak SS); Victorino stays at 3B
4/17/2005 ARI @WSN ahead 1-3 t7 SS-1B; Counsell stays at 3B
6/11/2005 NYY @STL ahead 0-4 t9 SS-2B-1B; Jeter stays at 3B
6/23/2005 FLA @ATL ahead 0-7 t8 SS-2B-1B; Lo Duca stays at 3B
8/29/2005 BAL OAK tied 5-5 b8 SS-1B; Matos stays at 3B
9/13/2005 SEA LAA tied 1-1 b9 2B-CF-1B; Reed stays at 3B
5/8/2004 OAK MIN tied 2-2 b8 SS-2B-1B; Durazo stays at 3B
6/8/2004 OAK CIN ahead 6-10 b8 SS-2B-1B; Dye stays at 3B
Wow.. that is freaking cool, awesome!
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Old 07-19-2012, 02:48 PM   #73
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Gotta love baseball reference.
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Old 07-19-2012, 03:44 PM   #74
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Gotta love baseball reference.
Agreed, the entire site is great, and without the play index I would have never come across this gem of a 4-8-3 double play. Apparently, they brought the CF in as a fifth infielder.

9/13/2005 SEA LAA tied 1-1 b9 2B-CF-1B; Reed stays at 3B
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Old 07-19-2012, 03:45 PM   #75
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Yes it does happen in real life, but much too much in this game, and no I don't have a statistical analysis prepared, but if you play out every game for your team, it happens too often.
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Old 07-19-2012, 05:35 PM   #76
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Here's the problem: how often in that situation (1-3, zero outs, GBDP) did the Inf play In to stop the run from scoring (after all, most of the time, the Inf is sacrificing the run to get the out) and the run scored anyway? That number isn't in the 18 examples that you listed. It's buried somewhere in the rest of the stats. However, I can't think of any way to determine that number.

OTOH, if you knew that number exactly -- call it "X" -- you would know how many more runs occur IRL from this type of play than you see in OOTP. For my part, I would tend to compare X to other things which happen in OOTP that tend to reduce runs scored. For example, the AI never calls Squeeze Plays (safety or suicide). My guess is the number of runs that score on squeezes in any given year IRL is significantly greater than X. But it is harder to get annoyed by an event that doesn't occur.
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Old 07-19-2012, 07:26 PM   #77
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Here's the problem: how often in that situation (1-3, zero outs, GBDP) did the Inf play In to stop the run from scoring (after all, most of the time, the Inf is sacrificing the run to get the out) and the run scored anyway? That number isn't in the 18 examples that you listed. It's buried somewhere in the rest of the stats. However, I can't think of any way to determine that number.

OTOH, if you knew that number exactly -- call it "X" -- you would know how many more runs occur IRL from this type of play than you see in OOTP. For my part, I would tend to compare X to other things which happen in OOTP that tend to reduce runs scored. For example, the AI never calls Squeeze Plays (safety or suicide). My guess is the number of runs that score on squeezes in any given year IRL is significantly greater than X. But it is harder to get annoyed by an event that doesn't occur.
The positioning of the infield is not listed in the play by play data, but in this case it isn't relevant whether the infield is in. The data shows that 98% of the time when a double play takes place in this situation, the runner from 3rd scores irrespective of the infield being in/out/DP depth. Yes, playing the infield in may stop the run from scoring, but in doing so sacrifices the opportunity to turn a double play. Double plays and the runner staying at 3rd happen far more frequently in the game than the rare occurrences that happen in real life.

Looking at just double plays may unfairly skew the numbers to make my point, but looking at all groundball outs to the middle of the infield produces similar results. Using just the 2011 season there were 113 groundballs hit to SS or 2B with 1st & 3rd and no outs. (Not counting infield hits) Of the 113 chances:
60 resulted in a double play & the runner from 3rd scoring.
1 resulted in a double play including the runner being thrown out at home.
48 resulted in a putout with the runner scoring from 3rd.
4 resulted in a putout with the runner remaining at 3rd.

Yes it is a relatively small sample size with only one season of data, but this leads me to believe that any ball hit to a middle infielder in this situation should result in a run scored about 95% of the time, with the other 5% being a sharply hit ball that results in looking back the runner and getting one out. Looking back the runner and turning a double play just doesn't happen on a ball hit up the middle.

When you open up the data to groundballs taken by any infielder for this scenario the runner only scores 80% of the time which sounds about right when you factor the infield or corners playing in. However, only 3 double plays (1 1/2%) resulted in the runner staying at 3rd. They came from a comebacker to the pitcher, a bunt fielded by the catcher and a 3-6-3 hit short of the bag.

I agree with what I think you are saying regarding other unquantified issues with gameplay that leads to parity between the game and real life. If runs are understated in one portion of the game, they are likely overstated in another. I do think this double play issue strays far enough away from the basics of baseball that it should be treated as a bug.
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Old 07-19-2012, 07:36 PM   #78
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Double plays and the runner staying at 3rd happen far more frequently in the game than the rare occurrences that happen in real life.
In OOTP this only occurs when the Inf is playing In. If the Inf is playing Normal, the run will always score. There will never be a play at the plate in the latter situation.

If there is confusion about these things in this thread, it would be good to make sure we clear that up.
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Old 07-20-2012, 01:04 AM   #79
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In OOTP this only occurs when the Inf is playing In. If the Inf is playing Normal, the run will always score. There will never be a play at the plate in the latter situation.

If there is confusion about these things in this thread, it would be good to make sure we clear that up.
So what is a "ball hit to 4M"?
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Old 07-20-2012, 01:18 PM   #80
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So what is a "ball hit to 4M"?
Ball hit to the infield dirt on the 1st base side of 2nd base. Or were you looking for something else in the way of an answer?
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