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Old 10-01-2019, 03:03 PM   #1
LandiHero
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Loving the new diamond packs!

Just opened one of the cheaper diamond packs and got a haul of cards!
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Old 10-01-2019, 03:09 PM   #2
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Okay, all good cards are taken. I can keep my PP.
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Old 10-01-2019, 04:22 PM   #3
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Okay, all good cards are taken. I can keep my PP.
There's still another Chris Sale for you.
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Old 10-01-2019, 04:22 PM   #4
chazzycat
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I haven't bought a single pack all year but I'm kinda considering it for this deal. Some historical diamonds are worth quite a lot with collections now...I wonder if anyone has done "the math" on the discounted price?
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Old 10-01-2019, 05:44 PM   #5
bailey
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10 packs = 7 live and 3 historical.
7 x 5000 = 35000
3 x 30000 = 90000

IMHO = still a losing prop.
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Old 10-01-2019, 06:15 PM   #6
chazzycat
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Well I assumed all pack purchases are losing propositions. 125k back on 150k investment isn’t that horrible
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Old 10-01-2019, 06:18 PM   #7
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10 packs = 7 live and 3 historical.
7 x 5000 = 35000
3 x 30000 = 90000

IMHO = still a losing prop.
Well, that's still 125k in value, 112.5k after tax. Consider that the pack EV for standard packs is, conservatively, something like 500 PP. So, the 10 pack EV is something like 120k, if we're being conservative here. So that's -3k in EV per pack, conservatively. I'd argue that in this diamond-heavy meta, the average diamond might even be closer to 40k or more, especially when you take into account those huge value diamonds that drag the distribution upwards. It's already better than normal packs even before considering those high value cards.

I could see it being at least close to even EV. It's certainly a lot closer to even than normal; if a team wanted to gamble, there are a LOT of worse decisions you could make with your PP. All those people who blow money on packs thinking you could make something out of it, this is your time to shine.
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Old 10-01-2019, 06:33 PM   #8
dancariaz
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Just buy the packs and flood the market with cards
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Old 10-01-2019, 06:49 PM   #9
Orcin
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10 packs = 7 live and 3 historical.
7 x 5000 = 35000
3 x 30000 = 90000

IMHO = still a losing prop.
This only looks at the promised diamond cards. There is upside potential to get additional diamond cards or perfects. Even one live perfect makes this a breakeven.

This is way too good to pass up. I suggest everyone buy as many of these packs as they can afford!
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Old 10-01-2019, 07:29 PM   #10
chazzycat
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I have been in the habit of dropping $100 on the first of the month the last two months...the wife hasn't noticed on the credit card as of yet...so I think I'm gonna do it lol
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Old 10-01-2019, 07:32 PM   #11
RunninYakAngler
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Just bought my first ever Diamond pack. 5 Irons...AND 99 Nap Lajoie.

Now to keep or sell. My 9-32 YakAnglers are saying sell, sell, sell.
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Old 10-01-2019, 07:53 PM   #12
chazzycat
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Congrats! In contrast, I bought 11 packs. Got 10 lives all worth under 8k, and the only historical was 91 Morgan Ensberg worth 6k. I'll be lucky to get 50k back on my 165k spent. Horrible, horrible decision.

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Old 10-01-2019, 07:59 PM   #13
RunninYakAngler
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Wow. That seriously sucks. Now I have to really think about buying another one for my other teams.
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Old 10-01-2019, 08:18 PM   #14
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It's 70/30 live I believe, and live diamonds are in the ****ter since they can't get boosted to perfect. The market is going to flood and you'll be lucky to sell any of them for 5000.

But I'll give a generous 5000 though for the live diamond EV.

The 5 random cards are worth like 400-500 in EV.

So 70% of the time the pack is worth 5500.

That means the average historical diamond needs to sell for 37000 (41000 before tax) to make these packs a positive EV (assuming they are all equally likely and not weighted towards lower overalls, which seems to be the prevalent thinking but I'm not sure)

There's the math

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Old 10-01-2019, 08:20 PM   #15
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NOOOOOOO! Diamond pack sale sneak attack. I really dislike these things because they absolutely mess up supply/demand. And it figures that I bought a diamond player for 170K just last night and probably won't get anything near that re-selling it. Strong dislike. Wish we'd get a heads up before it actually happens.
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Old 10-01-2019, 08:24 PM   #16
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I generally agree, but it was pretty obvious there would be one for the start of the playoffs

I was very aggressive selling out diamond collection parts yesterday to not get stuck with them
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Old 10-01-2019, 08:31 PM   #17
brrrdt1
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So...I figured...why not spend some PP on the diamond pack sale. I've been hunting for a small number of cards to finish a mission or two (I'm not deep into missions, but have concentrated my fire on completing one set over the past couple of weeks and am real close) but am otherwise kind of paralyzed on where to spend excess PP. Obviously, your mileage may vary, but I opened 8 packs. Mostly live diamonds. One 92 Reuschel. One 92 Pedro. And then a pack with 99 Oscar Charleston (a duplicate for me)...and a Perfect Mays (someone I'd had an eye on for a while). So that happened. Good luck to everyone else rolling the dice.
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Old 10-02-2019, 09:57 AM   #18
BigRed75
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I'm just annoyed because I did Packapalooza with 52 packs and got one stinkin' 92 Jeff McNeil. I could have waited, bought 3 Diamond packs instead and gotten three stinkin' Jeff McNeils!

Still would have come out ahead. And saved 7,000 PP.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:29 AM   #19
Abnerdoubleday
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waittilnextyear View Post
NOOOOOOO! Diamond pack sale sneak attack. I really dislike these things because they absolutely mess up supply/demand. And it figures that I bought a diamond player for 170K just last night and probably won't get anything near that re-selling it. Strong dislike. Wish we'd get a heads up before it actually happens.
Because everyone knows this is first and foremost a speculation game
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:37 AM   #20
Drezik
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I seem to have the same experience - I blew all the PP i've been saving for a top tier player.

Bought 22 packs...almost all lives. I got a a few historics: 97 Joe Morgan, Will Clark, Trevor Rosenthal, and another that is escaping me at the moment. Needless to say I should've just bought the Perfect Griffey I wanted.
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