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Old 10-07-2019, 12:55 AM   #1
Argonaut
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Does pitch type matter? Does a knuckleball do anything? Answers inside.

So, I've been skeptical in the past about whether pitch type as shown in the game actually does anything (aside from its affect on Stuff), or if it's just there for flavour. Also, there's always been anecdotal chatter about how a Knuckleballer can lower BABIP, and therefore usually sport a lower ERA than FIP would predict. Is that true?

Instead of pondering this question any longer, I decided to fire up the simulation module. Does pitch type matter in OOTP?

Short answer: YES

Long answer:

For my first test I loaded up the 1969 Atlanta Braves, a season in which Phil Niekro had a particularly saucy BABIP of .247. Throughout Phil's career, he had a noticeably lower ERA than FIP. Can OOTP model this? Well, yes it can.

I ran 2 tests, which involved 30,000 simulations of the Braves against the Giants. In the second one I changed Phil Niekro's Knuckleball and Knuckle Curve to an identically rated Sinker and regular Curveball.

Knuckle Phil: 2.36 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .216 BABIP
Sinker Phil: 2.90 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .253 BABIP

That's a huge difference, and you can check the attached screenshots below to see the other pitchers on the Braves put up near identical numbers as a control point. After around 20,000 simulations I'm sure Bobby Bonds was saying: "OK, enough already... I still can't hit this !@#$ Knuckleball!"

Another interesting thing is that changing pitch types also affects Movement and Control, not just Stuff. Knuckle Phil had higher Stuff, but slightly lower Movement and Control than Sinker Phil. You can see this all in the editor when you make changes.

So I wondered do other pitch types matter? YES, they do.

I loaded up the 1973 California Angels to play around with Nolan Ryan's Fastball. Changing his Fastball to an identically rated Changeup actually kind of breaks the game, so I won't get too into it. OOTP ranks a top tier Changeup as way better than a Fastball in terms of Stuff, so Ryan had pretty much max Stuff.

But the interesting thing that came out of the Nolan Ryan experiment is that the opposing team (Royals) had many more stolen bases against Change Ryan than Fastball Ryan. I remember seeing someone talk about a stolen base off of a Fastball in the OOTP engine before, and I and others thought that the engine didn't really model something like that. But it does! OOTP is so cool.

I'm sure there's all kinds of neat effects from pitch types that are modeled in OOTP. For instance, something else I saw is that a good Slider really boosts a pitcher's Movement. Would be cool to see what else people figure out.

TL;DR: Pitch types matter. Knuckleballs lower BABIP.

Thanks to NoOne for sparking my interest in this, he was right about Knuckleballs all along.
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:18 AM   #2
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how do you fire up the simulation module? I'd be curious to uncover what impact catcher ability has on HR/9, BB/9 and K/9 for the pitching staff.
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Old 10-07-2019, 12:27 PM   #3
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how do you fire up the simulation module? I'd be curious to uncover what impact catcher ability has on HR/9, BB/9 and K/9 for the pitching staff.
You have to be loaded into a saved game. I found it easier to open ready-made historical games than to muck about with a created fictional league.

Then under the "PLAY" button there will be an option that says "Simulation Module" near the bottom of the list. You can simulate from there, and then edit a player in commissioner mode and simulate again.

For example, you could open a 1997 Texas Rangers season, run a simulation, then edit Pudge's catcher defense for the worse and run another simulation.
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Old 10-07-2019, 12:43 PM   #4
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fascinating. thanks for doing the research and sharing!
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Old 10-07-2019, 05:46 PM   #5
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i agree it has some ancillary effects for sure..

as far as a PA, it was clearly stated, and proving my previous thoughts wrong, that only the over stuff is used when determining outcomes of a PA -- the parts related to swinging the bat at a ball.

a sb is part of a PA, but not really rolling the rng related to stuff, but if they have no fastball and high stuff, i'm certainly happy it has an impact on steals. that wouldn't prevent only an overall stuff rating from being used.

this is what i mean when i say the game isn't truely resolved down to per pitch... it's more like per PA and some extras rolled in. errors are completely comparmentalized from the stuff vs batter RNG portion of the equation. you cna see this if you crash and reload.. an error will occur roughyl the same % of the time, even if it's a high RNG roll that results in a triple or double 9 of 10 times -- home runs skip over any error calculation possibility, since no fielding is done.

80-90% of a PA in ootp is essentially determined the moment the play steps into the box.

if you wanted to cheat, it'd be better to IBB a player that seems to be destined for a XBH or HR -- it's very clear when this is the case as you crash and reload (experience from opposite side trying to force a 4hr game many years ago, lol).

so, you crash, reload and see constant xbh from this PA, you IBB them and move to next hoping for better RNG roll.

this is also why the cheat for taking pitches until 2 strikes works... your chances of getting that XBH never changes throughout the PA, as long as you swing at it once, lol.

all that meansis that pitch selection incluences have nothign to do with a player getting hr, and out or a single... it may influence other percentages for various other decisions the game has to make. glad to hear that... really.

Last edited by NoOne; 10-07-2019 at 05:47 PM.
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Old 10-11-2019, 04:52 AM   #6
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i agree it has some ancillary effects for sure..

as far as a PA, it was clearly stated, and proving my previous thoughts wrong, that only the over stuff is used when determining outcomes of a PA -- the parts related to swinging the bat at a ball.

a sb is part of a PA, but not really rolling the rng related to stuff, but if they have no fastball and high stuff, i'm certainly happy it has an impact on steals. that wouldn't prevent only an overall stuff rating from being used.

this is what i mean when i say the game isn't truely resolved down to per pitch... it's more like per PA and some extras rolled in. errors are completely comparmentalized from the stuff vs batter RNG portion of the equation. you cna see this if you crash and reload.. an error will occur roughyl the same % of the time, even if it's a high RNG roll that results in a triple or double 9 of 10 times -- home runs skip over any error calculation possibility, since no fielding is done.

80-90% of a PA in ootp is essentially determined the moment the play steps into the box.

if you wanted to cheat, it'd be better to IBB a player that seems to be destined for a XBH or HR -- it's very clear when this is the case as you crash and reload (experience from opposite side trying to force a 4hr game many years ago, lol).

so, you crash, reload and see constant xbh from this PA, you IBB them and move to next hoping for better RNG roll.

this is also why the cheat for taking pitches until 2 strikes works... your chances of getting that XBH never changes throughout the PA, as long as you swing at it once, lol.

all that meansis that pitch selection incluences have nothign to do with a player getting hr, and out or a single... it may influence other percentages for various other decisions the game has to make. glad to hear that... really.
To me that's disappointing. I thought they'd created a true pitch by pitch simulation. I don't care that pitch selection doesn't matter. Really, anything we aren't allowed to influence not mattering isn't a big deal for me. My rule of thumb is that since they won't let us influence pitch selection (even by giving percentages) it doesn't matter.

But...I did think that forcing the batter to take pitches (though only the first pitch or when ahead in the count, never did it with an 0-1 pitch or something), which I've done with batter/pitcher matchups where strikeouts are very unlikely and the pitcher's control was bad enough the batter had a good chance to take a ball, I didn't think it was a cheat, but a strategy underused in real life. I thought there was a tradeoff, that if the batter fell behind as a result, there was a greater chance of an out of some sort due to it. It turns out it's a cheat and I need to stop doing it unless I were choosing to cheat, and if I were I wouldn't have to worry about the pitcher's control because it doesn't matter if the batter falls behind because if it was decided he was going to hit a double he'd still hit one even at 0-2.

The splits can show that batters hit worse (even on balls in play) when behind in the count, but that must just be that the sim will put the batter behind in the count more often when a bad outcome for the batter is going to happen.

I hope that a batter or pitcher who results in both more K's and more walks works deeper into the count even when the ball is put in play. Such a batter is likely to take more pitches, which include called strikes. A pitcher who gets a lot of K's is more likely to get 2 strikes in an at bat rather than 0 or 1 than one who doesn't, even if the ball is put in play, and one with a lot of walks is more likely to go to 3 balls than one with great control (I'm not saying the game works that way; I'm saying I hope it does).

With pitch selection, all I ask is a realistic ratio, that the fastball type pitch (sometimes a sinker/cutter) is used more often than other pitches other things equal (most real life pitchers throw a majority of fastballs; the sinker is more or less a 2-seamer), and that better pitches should be used more than worse ones, even if the final result is the same; and that if the predetermined result is a ground ball, even one that gets through for a single (or might; I guess if a fielder might make a play that part is determined after the ball is put in play from what you wrote, though you may just mean errors-- at some point the fielder's range must matter though; defense besides errors influences outcomes, certainly), the pitch in play should be more likely to be a sinker/splitter/forkball type, etc.. But that part, it's okay with me if they're working backwards (as in "it's a ground ball, so it's hit off a splitter rather than a cutter"). I did realize pitch selection didn't matter in outcomes, that if it did they'd give us some control over it, if only overall percentages.
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Old 10-11-2019, 05:58 AM   #7
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A bit stunned by this statement.
I was under the impression that type of pitch really never had a matter in this game. Just a flavour.

I thought that how many types of pitches and stuff/command was the main things, perhaps in some cases the speed of the fastball perhaps. So also the extreem knuckeball.
Of course the type of pitcher, groundball or flyball is important but nothing more than that.

There is so many things in the pitching that is impossible for this game to reproduce, but if this could be a thing that really matters I will love the game even more.
Thoughts that some pitches induce more groundballs and others gets more flyballs never entered my mind. So whatever a pitcher hurled, that never was in the formula on if/how/what kind of outcome a pitch really had.
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Old 10-11-2019, 07:22 AM   #8
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A bit stunned by this statement.

I was under the impression that type of pitch really never had a matter in this game. Just a flavour.



I thought that how many types of pitches and stuff/command was the main things, perhaps in some cases the speed of the fastball perhaps. So also the extreem knuckeball.

Of course the type of pitcher, groundball or flyball is important but nothing more than that.



There is so many things in the pitching that is impossible for this game to reproduce, but if this could be a thing that really matters I will love the game even more.

Thoughts that some pitches induce more groundballs and others gets more flyballs never entered my mind. So whatever a pitcher hurled, that never was in the formula on if/how/what kind of outcome a pitch really had.

The creator of this Post isn't talking about how a pitch faced can determine the outcome, just how different pitches create different Stuff MOV CON ratings.

The result of the seed created per PA doesn't take into consideration if an 80/80 FB is thrown or a 20/20 change up. Just the whole picture per PA.

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Old 10-11-2019, 08:06 AM   #9
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Thoughts that some pitches induce more groundballs and others gets more flyballs never entered my mind. So whatever a pitcher hurled, that never was in the formula on if/how/what kind of outcome a pitch really had.
It was actually pretty obvious if you looked at fictional players generated by the sim that the pitch type didn't necessarily directly matter, but while speed doesn't directly affect outfield range, the game will give higher OF range ratings when creating a player if the player has more speed (and if speed drops OF range will tend to drop).

Similarly, the sinker the best example of this, while having a sinker as one's #1 pitch won't generate more grounders if the grounder percentage as seen in the editor remains the same, if the computer generates a pitcher whose best pitch is the sinker, it will almost always give that pitcher a high ground ball rate.

If in any way this responded to what I said about a ground ball, I said pitch selection didn't have to matter but it should at least work backwards. If the pitcher has a sinker and the batter is determined to hit a ground ball, it should have the ground ball likely to be hit off a sinker. The sinker in that case doesn't cause the ground ball; it's more like the reverse.

But if a relief pitcher has a sinker and a changeup as his two main pitches, and through the formula Player A is determined to double into the gap and then score on a ground ball single that evades the infielders into the outfield, it should usually cause the double to have come off a changeup and the ground ball single have been hit off a sinker. Those hits would come just from (on the defense's end) stuff/movement/GB% ratings (and sometimes fielding ratings not to get to them) and would be the same hits if the pitcher threw a fastball and a curveball, but it would attribute them in that way. I'm fine that the pitches don't truly matter outside of the ratings they help generate, but that's part of the flavor.

What actually bothers me is that it isn't necessarily pitch by pitch at all, that if the count goes too 0-2 or 3-0 it doesn't actually matter which, that at most the count got to 0-2 because the batter did poorly, etc.. It may be too hard to mathematically determine individual pitch ball/strike chances in a way that leads to realistic stat outcomes, but I hoped and had thought ootp had found a way.
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Old 10-11-2019, 09:43 AM   #10
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Anyone arguing with NoOne? Why does this remind me of an Abbott & Costello routine?
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:26 PM   #11
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So, i almost replied to the first sentence, above... even after reading the abbot and costello bit. oops...

i think it's mostly consensus, too.

it's compartmentalized... and they layered the new %-factors added over time as opposed to recreating the entire equation to fit it in -- i think that's the cause.

the way pitch types influence some ancillary things, but not the batter v pitcher specific behaviours when a pitch is actually thrown - and only in that time frame/action. so, a sinker dominant pitch repertoire does increase gb%, but it's applied after success/fail of PA.

the sinker isn't "thrown" at any time, which would be the only time it would increase GB%.


this is why a few people have written some scatheing things over time in the forums (rarely every few years)... while i don't think it's anywhere near that sort of level of concern or neurotic reaction for a video game, it's definitely not as resolved as the facade leads you to believe. this game is ~500kb of code and a whole lotta fluff. that isn't negative, it's just a fact. most games are this way. especially anything with a picutres, video, 3d animation etc. pretty much all games.
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:49 PM   #12
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The creator of this Post isn't talking about how a pitch faced can determine the outcome, just how different pitches create different Stuff MOV CON ratings.

The result of the seed created per PA doesn't take into consideration if an 80/80 FB is thrown or a 20/20 change up. Just the whole picture per PA.

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It's not just the STU/MOV/CON ratings though, but also things like BABIP and how many stolen bases the other team gets. And these are just the things I've seen in testing, there may be even more things to discover with pitch types.

I'm more of a macro big-picture player who only watches (and doesn't manage) games in the playoffs. So I'm not as concerned with pitch-by-pitch simulation. But I guess I could see how some people would like OOTP to work down to that level of detail.
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Old 10-11-2019, 01:56 PM   #13
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i got ya.. i only mentioned one of the things in an attempt to keep it short -- something i am horrible at.

yeah, even though it doesn't resolve each pitch thrown, there's still some influence after that point based on their repertoire.

i don't play games out either, so it doesn't bother me... but some have complained in forums and been throttled by the clique that resides here and circles the wagons the moment of any feeling of insecurity about ootp.

a lot of what you do playing a game out has an effect, but it's a ptachwork addition so to speak, if it requires anythign resolution beyond a PA... which many things requires... like defense is related to pitch thrown.. if you don't resolve that, then something is just rigged to work in an overall % way, but maybe not as far as how it should play our or why it occured etc.

it all looks good in the player stats and team stats at end of year in proper proportion, but it's RNG instead of causality (splitting hairs, even the 'causality' i speak of is based on rngs but the way it plays out is more of a model of reality as opposed to just getting the #s right at the end of 166k AB by applying some glossed-over percentage after a hit or non-hit is determined etc etc even though that should have been part of how the hit was determined in the first place....)
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Old 10-11-2019, 04:01 PM   #14
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Thanks for your efforts in this area! I simply took it for granted, but it'll change my thinking a bit now.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:08 PM   #15
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Is there any way to rank pitches based on Effectiveness?
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:58 PM   #16
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Anyone arguing with NoOne? Why does this remind me of an Abbott & Costello routine?
You know, I almost chose Everyone as my forum name, so if someone argued with me they'd have to say "I disagree with Everyone"
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Old 10-13-2019, 01:43 AM   #17
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II loaded up the 1973 California Angels to play around with Nolan Ryan's fastball. Changing his fastball to an identically rated changeup actually kind of breaks the game, so I won't get too into it. OOTP ranks a top tier changeup as way better than a fastball in terms of Stuff, so Ryan had pretty much max Stuff.

What you did with Ryan isn't totally historically inaccurate. Later on he did develop a very good straight change to go with his curve ball. That made him just all the more harder to hit and helped him add on to his career no-hitter totals.
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Old 10-13-2019, 09:09 AM   #18
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So, I've been skeptical in the past about whether pitch type as shown in the game actually does anything (aside from its affect on Stuff), or if it's just there for flavour. Also, there's always been anecdotal chatter about how a knuckleballer can lower BABIP, and therefore usually sport a lower ERA than FIP would predict. Is that true?

Instead of pondering this question any longer, I decided to fire up the simulation module. Does pitch type matter in OOTP?

Short answer: YES

Long answer:

For my first test I loaded up the 1969 Atlanta Braves, a season in which Phil Niekro had a particularly saucy BABIP of .247. Throughout Phil's career, he had a noticeably lower ERA than FIP. Can OOTP model this? Well, yes it can.

I ran 2 tests, which involved 30,000 simulations of the Braves against the Giants. In the second one I changed Phil Niekro's knuckleball and knuckle curve to an identically rated sinker and regular curveball.

Knuckle Phil: 2.36 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .216 BABIP
Sinker Phil: 2.90 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .253 BABIP

That's a huge difference, and you can check the attached screenshots below to see the other pitchers on the Braves put up near identical numbers as a control point. After around 20,000 simulations I'm sure Bobby Bonds was saying: "OK, enough already... I still can't hit this !@#$ knuckleball!"

Another interesting thing is that changing pitch types also affects Movement and Control, not just Stuff. Knuckle Phil had higher Stuff, but slightly lower Movement and Control than Sinker Phil. You can see this all in the editor when you make changes.

So I wondered do other pitch types matter? YES, they do.

I loaded up the 1973 California Angels to play around with Nolan Ryan's fastball. Changing his fastball to an identically rated changeup actually kind of breaks the game, so I won't get too into it. OOTP ranks a top tier changeup as way better than a fastball in terms of Stuff, so Ryan had pretty much max Stuff.

But the interesting thing that came out of the Nolan Ryan experiment is that the opposing team (Royals) had many more stolen bases against Change Ryan than Fastball Ryan. I remember seeing someone talk about a stolen base off of a fastball in the OOTP engine before, and I and others thought that the engine didn't really model something like that. But it does! OOTP is so cool.

I'm sure there's all kinds of neat effects from pitch types that are modeled in OOTP. For instance, something else I saw is that a good slider really boosts a pitcher's Movement. Would be cool to see what else people figure out.

TL;DR: Pitch types matter. Knuckleballs lower BABIP.

Thanks to NoOne for sparking my interest in this, he was right about knuckleballs all along.
lol, I can just see them programming away, accounting for everything they possibly can...I was thinking about adding a knuckleballer to my rotation...kind of surprised their BABIP is that much greater... well, they're not generating a ton of Ks so I take that back.

I've got to guess that these teams that win 120+ every season in PT have figured a thing or two about the game out that I haven't even touched, but it does seem the best would be even better maybe if it was much easier to predict than actual baseball
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Old 10-14-2019, 08:57 PM   #19
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Is there any way to rank pitches based on Effectiveness?
i think it would be difficult and just a very large spread of data to get lost in.

you'd need to consider combinations... you could limit it to more common and eliminate near-impossible.. pretty rare to see a non-FB player, if at all? even so, you gotta see at various levels and proportions to 1 to 2+ other pitches.

you can't lookt at it per pitch on it's own, because no player is like that. since we don't quite know how it all pieces together, it's better to just look at the smallest we are capable of resolving -> a normal package of pitches...however combinations that may be, which includes all possible ratios, or at least a few spot checks to determine line or curve slope/shape, respectively.

try each one in a realistic context and see which have the best resulting stats... now, that's the next kicker, since no one stat is 100% balanced enough to use in such a certain way.

my money is on the KB. now only do you get 10-20 more innings per year, you get a low whip with a great babipAg - the largest part of Contact, if not mistaken (3 parts=Con), so it best minimizes the top talent. With the right off-pitches you can even have a high K-rate, specifically at least one other plus-plus, likely.

but, not matter what there'll be room for rational arguements across a wide spectrum of options. i think what we'd take away most is what to avoid... i.e. what's "overrated".. the type of player that costs a premium, but never will be consistently worth that elite rating and cost.
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:03 PM   #20
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lol, I can just see them programming away, accounting for everything they possibly can...I was thinking about adding a knuckleballer to my rotation...kind of surprised their BABIP is that much greater... well, they're not generating a ton of Ks so I take that back.

I've got to guess that these teams that win 120+ every season in PT have figured a thing or two about the game out that I haven't even touched, but it does seem the best would be even better maybe if it was much easier to predict than actual baseball
if BABIPAg is not well below average, understanding a bad year can happen, there's something amiss with that KB'er. anything 80+ KB with an overall ~80 stuff, you can have yourself a future HoF with just decent movement and control. i think they are better for poor defenses too... fewer babip is best defense! you could have a worse fielding percentage but cost your team fewer runs over 162g than some better fielding teams within a certain range.

you can get workhorses with lower quality, but they still need decent stuff. that will also be better than any #3-5, because of how many innings these guys eat up. because they don't strike out a ton, or something else, they also tend to be quite cheap at this quality, relative to what you get.

that "120+" used to be 130-140+, eh? they've done some things to directly combat that, i think... or possibly a byproduct of some other change, too. it's just more difficult to trade for certain players, i think.

the only key is not to sign bad contracts.. to get out of them before they become bad contracts... and to plan ahead... years ahead. you play chess, the rest play checkers.

i'm definitely winning less, but i can't quantify with so few seasons played. 10ish. i can tell i am paying more for things, though. so, i'd have to adjust long-term plans - simmer them down a bit or try to eke more years out of players than i prefer.

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