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Perfect Team Discover the new amazing online league competition & card collecting mode of OOTP! |
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11-30-2018, 03:28 PM | #41 |
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This is the screen. It does not say that those are the odds per card (you might want to add that) explicitly, but everybody knows that there are way more extra bronzes dropping than one in five packs.
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Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
11-30-2018, 03:28 PM | #42 | |
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Quote:
That said, the error is 1 in 100,100 which will show up at the dev level but not at the user level. |
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11-30-2018, 03:31 PM | #43 |
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"Everybody knows" except those who don't (like me, since I prefer the precision targeting the AH allows because I got sick of the many 5 iron standard packs I got in beta)
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11-30-2018, 03:39 PM | #44 |
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Alright, I concede that some don't want to know...
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Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
11-30-2018, 03:42 PM | #45 | |
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Quote:
If it was per pack, only 25.7% of packs would have anything more than 1 Bronze and 5 Iron. If it's per card, more like 77.7% of packs would have anything more than 1 Bronze and 5 Iron. If you had terrible luck with your first ten packs or so and only got 12-15 bronze+, I can see how the per-pack odds would seem more credible. |
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11-30-2018, 04:01 PM | #46 |
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11-30-2018, 05:16 PM | #47 |
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Not quite. On the first 5 card draws, the odds of getting a perfect are 0.001 each. On the 6th card draw, the odds of getting a perfect are dependent on whether there was at least one bronze in the preceding 5. There are many ways in which there could be at least one bronze in the first 5 cards, so it is quite likely: [1 - (4/5)^5] = 0.67. So more than two-thirds of the time, there is a 0.001 chance that the 6th card could be a perfect, and less than one-third of the time, that chance is 0.
Last edited by Josquin; 11-30-2018 at 05:30 PM. |
11-30-2018, 05:27 PM | #48 | |
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Quote:
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Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
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11-30-2018, 05:37 PM | #49 |
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It is not disregarded. The first 5 card draws are independent of each other. The sixth card draw is dependent on the outcome of the previous 5. More than 2/3 of the time, you get 6 cracks at a perfect.
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11-30-2018, 05:42 PM | #50 | |
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I'd love to hear what a dev has to say while we debate over what we don't really know for sure. |
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11-30-2018, 05:47 PM | #51 | |
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What you are trying to construct is that the odds for a perfect were different if all six cards were revealed at once, compared to when they are revealed one after another, which simply can't be true.
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Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. Last edited by Westheim; 11-30-2018 at 05:48 PM. |
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11-30-2018, 05:51 PM | #52 |
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Indeed, it would be nice if the devs could clarify. It doesn't make much difference at the individual pack level, but adds up over time.
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11-30-2018, 05:54 PM | #53 |
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It makes absolutely no difference when the cards are revealed. What matters is the distribution from which each card is drawn at the time it's generated. And that depends on how they programmed that particular piece of code.
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11-30-2018, 05:59 PM | #54 | |
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And your argumentation does indeed claim that card odds would be different depending on whether cards are revealed one by one or all at once. If you don't see that, maybe we should indeed wait for the masterminds behind the game to reveal all their secrets.
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Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
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11-30-2018, 06:02 PM | #55 |
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You seem to be confusing the two concepts of generating a card and revealing a card to the player. You do agree that the cards are generated one after the other, not all six simultaneously, right?
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11-30-2018, 06:07 PM | #56 |
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Not sure what I'm supposed to reveal or not, but the standard pack says "One Bronze card guaranteed", same way the gold pack states "One gold card guaranteed". It doesn't claim "One bronze card or better guaranteed"
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11-30-2018, 06:10 PM | #57 |
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So is the bronze card generated separately and then mixed into the pack of the other five?
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11-30-2018, 06:22 PM | #58 |
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11-30-2018, 06:25 PM | #59 |
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11-30-2018, 06:26 PM | #60 |
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So what that means is that you have 5 chances for a perfect and not 6, correct?
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