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Perfect Team Discover the new amazing online league competition & card collecting mode of OOTP!

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Old 11-30-2018, 03:28 PM   #41
Westheim
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This is the screen. It does not say that those are the odds per card (you might want to add that) explicitly, but everybody knows that there are way more extra bronzes dropping than one in five packs.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:28 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Westheim View Post
That is not actually correct. The true odds for a perfect in a pack are:

1 - (0.999^5)

Not important on a per-pack basis, but since people open them by the hundreds, the error adds up fast.
You are completely correct and I apologize for the inaccuracy.

That said, the error is 1 in 100,100 which will show up at the dev level but not at the user level.
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:31 PM   #43
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This is the screen. It does not say that those are the odds per card (you might want to add that) explicitly, but everybody knows that there are way more extra bronzes dropping than one in five packs.
"Everybody knows" except those who don't (like me, since I prefer the precision targeting the AH allows because I got sick of the many 5 iron standard packs I got in beta)
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Old 11-30-2018, 03:39 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Dogberry99 View Post
"Everybody knows" except those who don't (like me, since I prefer the precision targeting the AH allows because I got sick of the many 5 iron standard packs I got in beta)
Alright, I concede that some don't want to know...
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1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO

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Old 11-30-2018, 03:42 PM   #45
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"Everybody knows" except those who don't (like me, since I prefer the precision targeting the AH allows because I got sick of the many 5 iron standard packs I got in beta)
That's completely fair.

If it was per pack, only 25.7% of packs would have anything more than 1 Bronze and 5 Iron.

If it's per card, more like 77.7% of packs would have anything more than 1 Bronze and 5 Iron.

If you had terrible luck with your first ten packs or so and only got 12-15 bronze+, I can see how the per-pack odds would seem more credible.
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Old 11-30-2018, 04:01 PM   #46
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Alright, I concede that some don't want to know...
Well, excuse me for thinking that your way of knowing is also subjected to statistical anomalies. Obviously, my ignorance is my own fault. Thank you for clearing that up.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:16 PM   #47
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That is not actually correct. The true odds for a perfect in a pack are:

1 - (0.999^5)

Not important on a per-pack basis, but since people open them by the hundreds, the error adds up fast.
Not quite. On the first 5 card draws, the odds of getting a perfect are 0.001 each. On the 6th card draw, the odds of getting a perfect are dependent on whether there was at least one bronze in the preceding 5. There are many ways in which there could be at least one bronze in the first 5 cards, so it is quite likely: [1 - (4/5)^5] = 0.67. So more than two-thirds of the time, there is a 0.001 chance that the 6th card could be a perfect, and less than one-third of the time, that chance is 0.

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Old 11-30-2018, 05:27 PM   #48
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Not quite. On the first 5 card draws, the odds of NOT getting a perfect are 0.999 each. On the 6th card draw, the odds of NOT getting a perfect are dependent on whether there was at least one bronze in the preceding 5. There are many ways in which there could be at least one bronze in the first 5 cards. So more than two-thirds of the time, there is a 0.001 chance that the 6th card could be a perfect.
The card that is a guaranteed bronze/gold depending on the pack is disregarded entirely. It does not matter whether it is revealed first, fourth, or sixth in the pack. Only five cards can be anything else than bronze/gold.
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1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO

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Old 11-30-2018, 05:37 PM   #49
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The card that is a guaranteed bronze/gold depending on the pack is disregarded entirely. It does not matter whether it is revealed first, fourth, or sixth in the pack. Only five cards can be anything else than bronze/gold.
It is not disregarded. The first 5 card draws are independent of each other. The sixth card draw is dependent on the outcome of the previous 5. More than 2/3 of the time, you get 6 cracks at a perfect.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:42 PM   #50
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It is not disregarded. The first 5 card draws are independent of each other. The sixth card draw is dependent on the outcome of the previous 5. More than 2/3 of the time, you get 6 cracks at a perfect.
How do you know that's true though?

I'd love to hear what a dev has to say while we debate over what we don't really know for sure.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:47 PM   #51
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It is not disregarded. The first 5 card draws are independent of each other. The sixth card draw is dependent on the outcome of the previous 5. More than 2/3 of the time, you get 6 cracks at a perfect.
You are plain wrong. One card is *fixed*, but it does not matter where its position in the pack is. You only ever get five attempts at a perfect. When you start off with five non-bronzes on a standard pack you don't get a sixth attempt at a perfect not because none of those were bronze; but because one of the six cards was a fixed bronze and it happened to come up last.

What you are trying to construct is that the odds for a perfect were different if all six cards were revealed at once, compared to when they are revealed one after another, which simply can't be true.
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1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO

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Last edited by Westheim; 11-30-2018 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:51 PM   #52
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How do you know that's true though?

I'd love to hear what a dev has to say while we debate over what we don't really know for sure.
Indeed, it would be nice if the devs could clarify. It doesn't make much difference at the individual pack level, but adds up over time.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:54 PM   #53
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What you are trying to construct is that the odds for a perfect were different if all six cards were revealed at once, compared to when they are revealed one after another, which simply can't be true.
It makes absolutely no difference when the cards are revealed. What matters is the distribution from which each card is drawn at the time it's generated. And that depends on how they programmed that particular piece of code.
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Old 11-30-2018, 05:59 PM   #54
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It makes absolutely no difference when the cards are revealed. What matters is the distribution from which each card is drawn at the time it's generated. And that depends on how they programmed that particular piece of code.
Cards are generated when the pack is opened. There were plenty of bugs were the animations would not show during the beta and the cards always wound up either on the inactive roster or the reserve roster, so the cards have to be generated server-side before the animation starts.

And your argumentation does indeed claim that card odds would be different depending on whether cards are revealed one by one or all at once. If you don't see that, maybe we should indeed wait for the masterminds behind the game to reveal all their secrets.
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1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO

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Old 11-30-2018, 06:02 PM   #55
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And your argumentation does indeed claim that card odds would be different depending on whether cards are revealed one by one or all at once. If you don't see that, maybe we should indeed wait for the masterminds behind the game to reveal all their secrets.
You seem to be confusing the two concepts of generating a card and revealing a card to the player. You do agree that the cards are generated one after the other, not all six simultaneously, right?
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Old 11-30-2018, 06:07 PM   #56
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Not sure what I'm supposed to reveal or not, but the standard pack says "One Bronze card guaranteed", same way the gold pack states "One gold card guaranteed". It doesn't claim "One bronze card or better guaranteed"
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Old 11-30-2018, 06:10 PM   #57
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Not sure what I'm supposed to reveal or not, but the standard pack says "One Bronze card guaranteed", same way the gold pack states "One gold card guaranteed". It doesn't claim "One bronze card or better guaranteed"
So is the bronze card generated separately and then mixed into the pack of the other five?
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Old 11-30-2018, 06:22 PM   #58
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So is the bronze card generated separately and then mixed into the pack of the other five?
That, I'm not sure if I'm supposed to say or not Although maybe someone better than me at Math can run the numbers and figure out whether it makes a difference
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Old 11-30-2018, 06:25 PM   #59
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That, I'm not sure if I'm supposed to say or not Although maybe someone better than me at Math can run the numbers and figure out whether it makes a difference
Can you clear up whether odds are per pack or per card?
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Old 11-30-2018, 06:26 PM   #60
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Not sure what I'm supposed to reveal or not, but the standard pack says "One Bronze card guaranteed", same way the gold pack states "One gold card guaranteed". It doesn't claim "One bronze card or better guaranteed"
So what that means is that you have 5 chances for a perfect and not 6, correct?
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