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11-29-2018, 10:47 PM | #1 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 228
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Perfect card odds
Is this being tracked? How many packs were opened so far, and how many perfect cards were generated? There seem to be too few of them in the AH right now. Are people hanging on to them, or are they more rare than the advertised 1 in 1000 rate?
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11-29-2018, 11:17 PM | #2 |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 389
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I have at least 2 teams in my entry pool with multiple perfects on the active roster.
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11-30-2018, 02:16 AM | #3 |
Developer OOTP
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Germany
Posts: 24,739
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They are exactly 1:1000.
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11-30-2018, 04:36 AM | #4 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
Posts: 11,905
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Does "small sample size" ring a bell with you? Or did you just calculate the total number of cards in the auction house and whether 1/1000 of those were perfect?
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Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
11-30-2018, 09:23 AM | #5 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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Quote:
You should expect to see: Total number of packs opened / 200 * (percentage of perfects that happen to be on the AH at that moment as Perfects, if sold, will likely only be sold once) All I'm saying is that 1) you have no idea how many people that draw perfects are keeping them and 2) you have no idea how many of the people who decided to sell them have already done so. |
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11-30-2018, 09:23 AM | #6 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,335
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11-30-2018, 09:27 AM | #7 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
Posts: 11,905
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Mine as well, although I will ever only draw one at most, because one would be enough to make me snap and being institutionalized.
__________________
Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
11-30-2018, 09:34 AM | #8 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 590
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11-30-2018, 09:37 AM | #9 | |
OOTP Developer
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Here and there
Posts: 14,145
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Quote:
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11-30-2018, 09:38 AM | #10 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Deep in the Heart of Texas
Posts: 1,697
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I agree totally. I was lucky enough to draw the Perfect Lou Gehrig War card. It is not now, nor will it ever be for sale.
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Favente Deo supero |
11-30-2018, 10:19 AM | #11 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NE
Posts: 212
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I drew a Trout and two Betts in a total of ~60 packs since the beta ended. I sold the Betts. There is usually at least one of the Betts cards on the AH. The historical perfects seem better and less common. I can't decide whether I'd sell a perfect if I didn't have a duplicate. 55-60K PP (I sold the Betts for 58K - the 10% fee) is nice and can get you a really nice gold team on the AH plus prb 25 packs or so, but that perfect card can also be a guaranteed producer on your roster for the remainder of time. My cousin drew a Betts as well and he is deciding whether to keep it or sell it to get a bunch of low golds plus 25-30 packs. Interestingly, there a quite a few high diamond cards that sell for more than a few of the perfect cards. I want the 1996 Smoltz and it sells for as much as the Betts.
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11-30-2018, 11:38 AM | #12 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 228
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Thanks for the statistics lesson. In my own experience, dating back all the way to the beta, I opened over 600 packs without drawing a single perfect. Perhaps you can enlighten me on the odds of that?
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11-30-2018, 12:02 PM | #14 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 228
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11-30-2018, 12:03 PM | #15 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Germany
Posts: 11,905
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Quote:
600 packs are 3,000 cards (since one card can never be a perfect). The odds that a card is not perfect is 999/1000, so the odds for none of 3,000 cards to be perfect are (999/1000)^3000 Which is 4.97%.
__________________
Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA | RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here. |
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11-30-2018, 12:05 PM | #16 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 228
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Why only 5 chances per pack? The mandatory bronze only happens when you draw a common on the first 5 tries.
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11-30-2018, 12:07 PM | #17 | |
Major Leagues
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 400
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Quote:
I'm pretty sure you are guaranteed a bronze, not at least a bronze. Also, even if you bought x amount of packs and got your percentage down to a tiny number, that still only makes you a statistical anomaly. |
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11-30-2018, 12:09 PM | #18 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 228
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There are two competing hypotheses: One is that I'm a statistical anomaly, and one is that the odds are not 1 in 1000. As additional evidence accumulates, one of the hypotheses becomes increasingly more likely than the other.
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11-30-2018, 12:29 PM | #19 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,335
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One hypothesis is that it's a statistical anomaly. The other that you're suggesting is that the devs are liars.
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11-30-2018, 12:48 PM | #20 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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Quote:
4.94% is about the lifetime home run rate of Jason Bay, which is to say, it definitely happens, but you wouldn't exactly want to set your watch to it. Please remember that the 'average' Perfect card draw from 600 packs should be 3. But only about 22% or so actually get 3. 39% or so get less than three, while the remaining 39% will receive more than 3. Which means that 78% of all users will be able to point to the fact that they opened 600 packs (a considerable amount) and did not receive the amount they should have, they received too many/too few and therefore the odds are actually higher/lower than is listed. tl;dr Drawing no Perfects in 600 packs is unlucky but proves/disproves nothing. It's like randomly going up to someone, finding out that she has a 125 or better IQ and saying "obviously this wasn't a random sample because the odds that I would just randomly grab someone with such a high IQ is quite low" (in fact around 5%). Just because it's unlikely doesn't mean that it can't happen, which seems to be your implication. Markus and the Devs have much, much, much better data on the effective probability of drawing a Perfect than we do (inasmuch as we can only look at 600-700 packs, where they're looking at 100k packs easy) and they equally have little incentive to lie about it. For me, I've probably opened 700 packs and received 4 Perfects; 1 Trout, 1 Betts, 1 deGrom and 1 Mariano. Luckier than I deserve. Last edited by sansterre; 11-30-2018 at 12:50 PM. |
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