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Old 10-09-2013, 02:48 PM   #1
Ragin Cajun
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Talent scouting question

Hey guys, still relatively new coming back to the game with 13 and now 14 (sat out 9-12 basically).

Question regarding scouting. My scout is rated as:
Majors: GOOD
Minors: EXCELLENT
Int'l: EXCELLENT
Amatuers: EXCELLENT
Projection: Neutral

1. What is projection?
2. How accurate can I expect my scout to be in the ratings I see?
3. How do ratings fluctuate in the game and when do you begin to really get a feel for true ratings?

For clarification on how I'm looking at things:
- Player A is a former 1st round pick of mine.
- In looking at his PROFILE/SCOUTING REPORTS screen I see the following:
3/28/17 (year of his draft): 8/20, 8/8, 4/20, 90-92, 1.0/4.5
3/27/18 (GCL): 8/11, 8/8, 5/14, 90-92, 1.0/1.0
3/27/19 (NYP): 10/11, 8/8, 7/15, 90-92, 1.0/1.0
4/1/20 (FLO): 11/12, 7/7, 8/15, 91-93, 1.0/1.0
11/13/20 (EL): 11/12, 8/8, 7/14, 91-93, 1.0/1.0

Also, in a solo league I see several re-rates annually (setup that way). But they have an increase here, a decrease there, an increase in current/potential, a drop in current/potential.

But at what point can I feel comfortable with what I'm seeing? Thanks for any insight to help me figure this part of the game out because it certainly affects drafting, trading and even resigning players.
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Old 10-09-2013, 03:37 PM   #2
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Question #1: Projections

From the manual: The Scouting Director's preference when it comes to projecting the future potential of players. The projection attribute has five settings: Highly Favor Ability, Favor Ability, Neutral, Favor Tools, and Highly Favor Tools. A Scouting Director that favors ability will base players' potential ratings on what the player can already do and project what he thinks the player will become in the future. The director that favors tools will base the players' potential ratings on the maximum peak the player could achieve. In theory, a scout that favors tools will find more superstars, while a scout that favors ability will find more serviceable major league players.
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Old 10-09-2013, 03:40 PM   #3
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I will leave it to others more experienced and smarter then I to chime in with more verifiable positions but I have found that with an excellent scout such as yours that his reports will be somewhat more accurate then a lesser rated scout, however the fog of war in relation to scouting prospects (especially teenagers) definetely still applies.

I have found that as a prospect is ready to or is close to leaving A ball as the time when my sccouts accuracy increases. It also begins to merge more with the OSA (or vice versa) at this point. When a prospect makes the final jump to the majors is a critical point of evaluation as well. Rating seems to fluctuate a lot.

On a side note, I heavily weigh my scouting expenses toward minors and amateur scouting. I rely more on other factors for my major league evaluations.
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Old 10-09-2013, 03:42 PM   #4
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Question #2: How accurate can I expect my scout to be in the ratings I see?

This scout is quite good, but not truly great. However, your funding of scouting (actually, the particular area of scouting: majors, minors, etc.) has a great deal of effect, also.

Finally, accuracy depends on the circumstances. Accuracy rises as the number of times that player has been scouted rises. Accuracy rises if the player is on your team. I believe accuracy rises if the player is in the majors.

(Accuracy also can depend upon the setting in the league setup.)
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Old 10-09-2013, 04:13 PM   #5
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Question #3: How do ratings fluctuate in the game and when do you begin to really get a feel for true ratings?

Actually two very different questions.

Ratings wander slightly (on the underlying 1-250 scale used by the game, and visible in the player editor) regardless. Whether you see this reflected in scout ratings is just luck; sometimes it crosses the threshhold from a rating of 8 to 9, but sometimes not. It does mean, though, that if your .300 hitter is hitting .280 this year, it might be a change in ability and not just statistical noise, even though his visible ratings are unchanged.

But big jumps and falls are also possible, and this is much, much more likely early in a player's career -- especially the first two years, and lasting til the player is about 25. So, if a high draftee turns out to be a bust, you r cannot be certain whether the player had great potential on draft day and then lost it, or whether your scout was wrong in the first place. However, between actual gain/loss of potential and scout's improving on his initial evaluation, the numbers scouts give you early in a player's career can be very volatile.

Current ratings generally follow the potential ratings until the player is 26, then fall below potential ratings later on as age takes its toll. Huge differences in when this occurs, but you can generally count on your stars to fade around age 28, while your rivals hold their skills until about age 40.

One other thing. It's not uncommon for a batter to see an upwards bump in batting eye a little later in his career, and the same is true for pitchers' control.

As to getting a feel for true ratings... I guess for a player who has competed in the majors for a while, scout ratings are pretty much accurate. Before then, it's like real life. If the scout says the guy is one way and that's how the player performs, you can feel reasonably certain. If there is a discrepancy, you are left wondering. I'd say it is very realistic.

When you are talking about prospects, you can do some double checking by looking at the list of top prospects on your team and top prospects in the league. They say these lists are highly accurate as of the date they come (start of the season). The positional strength report gives some further evidence for both major and minor league players.
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Last edited by beorn; 10-09-2013 at 04:19 PM.
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Old 10-09-2013, 04:23 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beorn View Post
When you are talking about prospects, you can do some double checking by looking at the list of top prospects on your team and top prospects in the league. They say these lists are highly accurate as of the date they come (start of the season). The positional strength report gives some further evidence for both major and minor league players.
While this is true, I tend to stay far, far away from the Top Prospects list, as it does NOT seem to be affected by fog of war at all. Meaning the prospects you see in the top 10 really are the top 10 prospects in the league in terms of pure ability - if you like knowing that, go for it. If, like me, you find that knowing these things makes it too easy to game the AI, you'll want to avoid the Top Prospects list.
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Old 05-06-2014, 06:52 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3 View Post
While this is true, I tend to stay far, far away from the Top Prospects list, as it does NOT seem to be affected by fog of war at all. Meaning the prospects you see in the top 10 really are the top 10 prospects in the league in terms of pure ability - if you like knowing that, go for it. If, like me, you find that knowing these things makes it too easy to game the AI, you'll want to avoid the Top Prospects list.
Anyone know if these lists -- i.e. the league's top prospect list, my team's player development top prospects list, my team's organization depth chart (on my player development page), and the league's positional strength overview -- are still based on the true ratings in either OOTP 14 or 15?
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Old 05-06-2014, 07:56 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3 View Post
While this is true, I tend to stay far, far away from the Top Prospects list, as it does NOT seem to be affected by fog of war at all. Meaning the prospects you see in the top 10 really are the top 10 prospects in the league in terms of pure ability - if you like knowing that, go for it. If, like me, you find that knowing these things makes it too easy to game the AI, you'll want to avoid the Top Prospects list.
If I recall correctly, you play with ratings off, so I understand your reluctance to go anywhere that provides information with any more certainty than allowed in your type of game.

Having said that, there are a few things that come to mind, not all of them iron-clad fact, but weighing heavily on my own experience with the game and the gamers.

1- You can't avoid the report altogether, as the ranking will appear in the player notes.

2- The forum banter for the last two versions, IMHO, put way too much emphasis on the validity of the report being based on true ratings. Again, even if it is ratings based I don't give it any more reliable predictability than I do good scouting, if you use it. It's just a current measure during any point in the game. One might elect not to use the Dynamic generation, at least then you're working off 'old' season-start rankings.

3- If you employ the Talent Randomness factor, setting it at 200 can mitigate any of the insecurities revolving around Top Prospects as well. Regardless if your 9th round draft pick is unrated, he may still turn out to be a star and any of the prospects could more easily bust, making the whole gamut of experience a bit more realistic for me. FWIW

4- Personally, while I value the perception of a top 100 etc.. in terms of what the game does with players, prospects or not, I don't place a great deal of credence on anyone ranked below the top 25, roughly, whether it's ML Top Players or Top Prospects. But that's just me.
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Last edited by endgame; 05-06-2014 at 07:59 PM.
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Old 05-06-2014, 11:39 PM   #9
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Endgame- so, as far as you know the Top 100 Prospects list is based on the 'true ratings', right? Do you know if the other lists -- like, your team's top prospects list on the player development page, your team's organization depth chart (also on your team's player development page), and the league's positional strength overview -- are also based on 'true ratings'? Thanks!
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Old 05-07-2014, 12:44 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by snowymagician View Post
Endgame- so, as far as you know the Top 100 Prospects list is based on the 'true ratings', right? Do you know if the other lists -- like, your team's top prospects list on the player development page, your team's organization depth chart (also on your team's player development page), and the league's positional strength overview -- are also based on 'true ratings'? Thanks!
Okay, this is a slippery slope and honestly, while part of me loves discussing our various philosophies of play, the other part of me abhors the debate that can sometimes occur if any of us presume to be certain of anything. That being said, the list is based on ratings. Whether that's actual/true ratings, OSA-view, something in-between, no I can't attest to knowing that for certain, nor do I really care. And I say that not to be short, but because I really don't. It's just another point of view, a vantage point of information value I can elect to examine, should I desire to do so.

There are lots of these avenues from which to draw conclusions and assist us in making up our own minds about the value of players and their projections. The world of baseball has always offered these various sources of rankings and speculations of a prospect's value or a particular player's place on any given tier. Scout's, scouts who use crosscheckers, television, baseball writers, Baseball America, our own personal predilection or bias toward certain kinds of players, ala Worth Ethic / Leadership or an old-school Atlanta Brave's 'makeup' mentality. I can't say there's a right or wrong, or a correct or true, unless you're playing with 100% ratings with no scouting on; even then I'm not convinced a simple report can offer you real projections, only a ranking, blocks stacked one upon another in some order, relative to what I can't say with confidence.

Here's a quote from a colleague (injury log) from about three years ago. It held for me then, and still does now, solid and thoughtful merit with which to gauge the concept of realities and projections in the game. We'll all develop our own methodologies. And of course, I'm more than willing to offer my viewpoint- among the many of others -about the process.

Quote:
You have the option to display your depth chart based either on 'prospect ranking' or on 'potential ratings'. If 'potential ratings' is chosen, then I agree that the game should use your scout's assessments and if it doesn't, that's an issue. When 'prospect ranking' is chosen, the game should be using the Baseball America prospect rankings - that's the whole point.

The whole idea that you can have a 'true' or 'completely accurate' prospect ranking is frankly ridiculous. Who is the better prospect, the 18 year old CF with 1/1/1 (C/P/E) ratings now and 9/9/9 potentials, or the 24 year old CF with 7/7/7 ratings now and 8/8/8 potentials? What about the 8/2/8 potential SS and the 6/9/6 potential 1B? Any prospect ranking needs to balance many factors - age, proximity to the Majors, a player's position, the relative value of on base skills, power, speed and defense, etc. The game balances these variables in a certain way that certainly is not always "correct".
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