Power Rating Question

[PSUColonel]

I can't wrap my head around the idea of some players being graded as HR power hitter, yet not gap power. Is it me, or is this somehow just inconsistent?

[moberegger]

From Out of the Park Developments Online Manuals

Gap Power is a measure of how much power a player has to the gaps - the places in the outfield between the left fielder and center fielder, and between the center fielder and right fielder. Gap Power directly affects the number of doubles and triples a player hits. Gap Power, however, has no direct effect on home runs, or on the likelihood that a player will make contact.

So, the way I understand it, Gap Power has nothing to do with home runs, but is related to BABIP. A player could have many home runs, but a low BABIP.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

He's not going to hit for average at all, but when he does connect it tends to leave the ballpark. Your 2016 comp would be Ryan Howard.

[NoOne]

that's how they've broken it down. think of it as line drives vs long fly balls. I would guess that is the representation of an uppercut swing.

assuming you have a few power guys and more well rounded player in key spots in the batting order etc....sell high on that guy... if he develops really fast and pushing to play, trade. if he starts dipping potential-wise, trade him earlier in his minor league career. he's got an extremely low BABIP portion of his Contact rating. his power and avoid k's are barely boosting it to 3/5ths of your scale, so it's a well below average babip rating that will likely only go down from there barring TCR.

with all that said, power guys are hard to find. if he hits consitently (avg/obp) and for power, he's a great end to the middle of the lineup-type guys - depending how deep your team is.

[jpeters1734]

i don't think gap relates to the BABIP rating. There is an actual BABIP rating in the editor.

[Dubie1947]

Think of it this way:

Power rating is ability to hit home runs.
Gap rating is ability to hit doubles and triples.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Dubie1947

Think of it this way:

Power rating is ability to hit home runs.
Gap rating is ability to hit doubles and triples.

I am aware of this. Very gamey. My point is a hitter with homerun power isn't NOT going to hav gap power. He may not have a high BA, as he will likely strike out more. I don't think it's realistic to say he wouldn't have gap power when he connects though.

[ThePretender]

Todd Frazier is a great example (26 HR, 9 doubles, 0 triples). Khris Davis (23 HR, 11 doubles, 1 triple). Basically, these are your slow, lumbering HR hitters. If I look at 2015, I see Nelson Cruz (44 HR, 22 2B, 1 triple) or Albert Pujols (40 HR, 22 doubles, 0 triples).

Some players don't get nearly as many doubles as they do HR. It could be that, like Pujols, they're selling out to hit home runs, and they're not fast enough to get to second on a ball another player would (Pujols had -4.9 BsR last year, so he's pretty awful at taking the extra base).

So yeah, it's not "gamey" and actually realistic. Some players are just slow or poor baserunners, some players are just looking to hit the ball over the fence, and it does happen that there are guys who hit far more HR than doubles.

I typically avoid low gap hitters. But looking on my team I have one guy with 5 gap and 7 power (1-10), and he has 3 speed.

[PSUColonel]

I can see speed being an issue for why a hitter wouldn't amass doubles and triples, but I just don't think it's consistent to say "well, he has very good HR power, but can't drive the ball into the gaps."

[ThePretender]

I don't know what to tell you other than there are many players in real life who hit for HR power but don't get a lot of doubles or triples. Some hitters have a more balanced approach, but other hitters are trying to hit the ball as hard as they can in the air, and that leads to lots of pop up type fly balls which don't go for doubles/triples. Line drives would lead to more doubles/triples.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

I don't know what to tell you other than there are many players in real life who hit for HR power but don't get a lot of doubles or triples. Some hitters have a more balanced approach, but other hitters are trying to hit the ball as hard as they can in the air, and that leads to lots of pop up type fly balls which don't go for doubles/triples. Line drives would lead to more doubles/triples.

That's a good point!

[Bluenoser]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I can see speed being an issue for why a hitter wouldn't amass doubles and triples, but I just don't think it's consistent to say "well, he has very good HR power, but can't drive the ball into the gaps."

What do you mean when you say "consistent"? Is this happening with every player you see in OOTP?

Pretender gave a few examples. Searching BBRef, you'll find more players who have HR power and little gap. It's not a rarity.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I am aware of this. Very gamey. My point is a hitter with homerun power isn't NOT going to hav gap power. He may not have a high BA, as he will likely strike out more. I don't think it's realistic to say he wouldn't have gap power when he connects though.

Since it is easier to hit a double (1.7:1) than a HR I'd suggest that lower gap ratings are exactly the way to do this.

There is a correlation between high HR and low doubles and less so vice versa. When a player hits many HR his doubles go down. When he hits many doubles HR go down but not by as much.

Hank Aaron in his 5 best doubles years was -28 in HR. In his 5 best HR years he was -89 in doubles. Check others. It's very rare for a good HR hitter to hit a lot of doubles when they are also hitting HR.

[jpeters1734]

So what kind of player would a low gap, low power, and high contact be?

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

So what kind of player would a low gap, low power, and high contact be?

Juan Pierre, maybe?

[ThePretender]

Any slap hitter like Revere or Pierre would probably fit the bill. Revere had a 055 ISO and Pierre was 066.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

So what kind of player would a low gap, low power, and high contact be?

Rod Carew Lou Brock, Eddie Collins

There is some evidence that good base stealers may not have tried to leg out doubles. There is a correlation between high SB and lower than average 2B hits. I find it surprising that Ricky Henderson only averaged 27 2B hit per 162 games.

That shows an issue with rating players. We can't always match ratings to skills. Ratings are matched to desired output. A Ricky Henderson clone would have to have low gap power no matter what his actual batting skills were.

[Dubie1947]

I think we need to be a bit cautious about comparing one specific rating with another. It's very likely that the game engine uses all of the ratings of all players involved in a play to determine an outcome. Things like weather (wind) and arbitrary "luck" are also likely to have an impact.

For instance a ground ball pitcher is less likely to yield a hard hit line drive into the gap. Also a fast outfielder is more likely to catch a hard hit ball. And last but not least, a slow runner would likely need a ball hit into the gap in order to get a double, but a fast runner might be able to stretch a weakly hit single into a double.

[Overkill]

I have followed this thread for a couple days but did not have time to post until now. While I understand how gap power works versus home run power, I have often wondered about this myself in how it relates to a player's development. I understand the relation of the two thanks to the player editor Gap (2B/3B) and HR (HR).

But the part I do not understand is how this relates to evolving players. For an example of what I am questioning, look at Manny Machado. In 2012 he hit 51 doubles, 3 triples and 14 home runs (68 XBH) at age 20. Then in 2015, at age 23, he hit 30 doubles, 1 triple and 35 home runs (66 XBH). The part I do not understand is how this would potentially work in game in terms of his ratings for Gap going down, as this does not seem like a "talent change randomness" thing to me. Perhaps I need to play through a few more seasons and look at examples.

In real life, we can assume that Machado "grew into" his home run power. Meaning, he put on some muscle and can now put the ball over the fence much more easily as opposed to into/off of it. This makes sense to me.

The part that I am confused about is how the game would handle this. Just for fun I used the editor and plugged these numbers into Machado and generated ratings from there, disregarding his other stats. His Gap and HR Power ratings, on a 1-10 scale, based on the 2012 numbers were 10 and 5, respectively. For 2015, it was 6 and 8. In this scenario, his gap rating would go down from 10 to 6 and HR rating up from 5 to 8. Keep in mind that his batting averages were almost identical (.283 vs .286) and his K rate was not too far off, either. I know HR power also influences AVG thanks to the editor, so perhaps his BABIP went down as well?

I guess my main question is: regardless of Gap power, does HR power have any influence on doubles and triples that are hit at all? My guess would be no, but what about early in the career with players who have a high HR potential but low Gap potential as in the given example? This is something I have clearly not done any testing on but have often wondered about based on the real life development of players who started off hitting doubles early in their careers (often as teens or low 20s) with few HRs, then the two seemed to balance out around say a player's mid 20s.

[saturn2187]

Originally Posted by Overkill

I have followed this thread for a couple days but did not have time to post until now. While I understand how gap power works versus home run power, I have often wondered about this myself in how it relates to a player's development. I understand the relation of the two thanks to the player editor Gap (2B/3B) and HR (HR).

But the part I do not understand is how this relates to evolving players. For an example of what I am questioning, look at Manny Machado. In 2012 he hit 51 doubles, 3 triples and 14 home runs (68 XBH) at age 20. Then in 2015, at age 23, he hit 30 doubles, 1 triple and 35 home runs (66 XBH). The part I do not understand is how this would potentially work in game in terms of his ratings for Gap going down, as this does not seem like a "talent change randomness" thing to me. Perhaps I need to play through a few more seasons and look at examples.

In real life, we can assume that Machado "grew into" his home run power. Meaning, he put on some muscle and can now put the ball over the fence much more easily as opposed to into/off of it. This makes sense to me.

The part that I am confused about is how the game would handle this. Just for fun I used the editor and plugged these numbers into Machado and generated ratings from there, disregarding his other stats. His Gap and HR Power ratings, on a 1-10 scale, based on the 2012 numbers were 10 and 5, respectively. For 2015, it was 6 and 8. In this scenario, his gap rating would go down from 10 to 6 and HR rating up from 5 to 8. Keep in mind that his batting averages were almost identical (.283 vs .286) and his K rate was not too far off, either. I know HR power also influences AVG thanks to the editor, so perhaps his BABIP went down as well?

I guess my main question is: regardless of Gap power, does HR power have any influence on doubles and triples that are hit at all? My guess would be no, but what about early in the career with players who have a high HR potential but low Gap potential as in the given example? This is something I have clearly not done any testing on but have often wondered about based on the real life development of players who started off hitting doubles early in their careers (often as teens or low 20s) with few HRs, then the two seemed to balance out around say a player's mid 20s.

Great write up. I'd love to know the answer to this too.