Most unlikely, ridiculous career progression I've ever seen

[Neags23]

TL is my major league. Talent level and stats are roughly equivalent to 1992 (league's starting year was 1900). Three levels of minors, A, AA, AAA.

This guy was drafted out of college on June 5th. Signs and plays his first game at A ball on June 20th. Has an OPS+ of 26 in 11 PAs. Gets promoted to AA, proceeds to go 1 for 8, and is called up to the major leagues (skipping AAA altogether!) on June 29th, and starts in his first major league game 24 days after being drafted out of college. He then hits .424 with a 165 OPS+ in his first 36 PAs.

How on earth does something like that happen? The AI clearly doesn't care about minor league stats *at all*. And obviously he won't keep up that pace, but nothing about the beginning of this guy's career is even remotely feasible. But it is pretty impressive and hilarious

[Brad K]

Bonus Baby.

[KBLover]

Out of curiosity, what are his ratings?

That's what I call a fast track

[Bluenoser]

I'd like to know his age and see his ratings.

As for the AI not caring about minor league stats. The sample size is so ridiculously small they aren't worth a glance.

The only stats he has with any sample size, and that's small, are his college stats, and they look pretty good.

I'd also like to see the rest of the team to figure out why he was called up. His ratings may explain some of it, but what else? Was it an emergency call up, nobody else could fill the position and he was the best choice?

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

As for the AI not caring about minor league stats. The sample size is so ridiculously small they aren't worth a glance.

I was going to say the same. He has had a grand total of 56 professional plate appearances. You can tell nothing from that kind of sample size. The better question is why he made it to the big leagues so quickly. My guess is he plays a position that the organization is thin on (catcher, first base come to mind immediately) and he was called up to fill an injury hole because he was the best option.

[Neags23]

The player in question is Andy Stump. Here's his scouting report, the rest of the SS's in his organization, and the rest of his team. Scouting accuracy is high.

Based entirely on ratings, the call up, even days after being drafted, makes sense. But based on such a small sample size where all he did was fall flat on his face, the call up doesn't really make sense at all. If, in such a small sample size, he was hitting .424 with a 165 OPS+ along with those ratings... then, sure, why not?

I think the small sample size of his stats is all the more of an indication the AI doesn't care about minor league stats. No human organization would do this with so few ABs in the minors, particularly ABs where he didn't show an ounce of success. Unless they were basing it entirely on ratings.

[andyhdz]

I've seen the game fast track good college draftees into the majors by the next season once in a while but never that fast.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Neags23

I think the small sample size of his stats is all the more of an indication the AI doesn't care about minor league stats. No human organization would do this with so few ABs in the minors, particularly ABs where he didn't show an ounce of success. Unless they were basing it entirely on ratings.

The AI cares as much about stats as you tell it to care about in the settings. But even if you have the ai set to mostly use stats in its evaluations, with a sample size that small, the ratings are still going to account for 99%. The stats only kick in once the sample gets big enough. Stats in that small as sample are useless to the ai, as they won't move the evaluation at all.

And frankly, would you want it any other way? If the ai took stats in that small a sample into account, you'd have it demoting MLB superstars when they go 0-4 in the season opener.

[One Great Matrix]

Originally Posted by Neags23

TL is my major league. Talent level and stats are roughly equivalent to 1992 (league's starting year was 1900). Three levels of minors, A, AA, AAA.

This guy was drafted out of college on June 5th. Signs and plays his first game at A ball on June 20th. Has an OPS+ of 26 in 11 PAs. Gets promoted to AA, proceeds to go 1 for 8, and is called up to the major leagues (skipping AAA altogether!) on June 29th, and starts in his first major league game 24 days after being drafted out of college. He then hits .424 with a 165 OPS+ in his first 36 PAs.

How on earth does something like that happen? The AI clearly doesn't care about minor league stats *at all*. And obviously he won't keep up that pace, but nothing about the beginning of this guy's career is even remotely feasible. But it is pretty impressive and hilarious

He didn't play much. 19 PAs could be a slump.
Can't recall a name right now but I've seen the equivelant of hitting ...well scratch that, I've seen many a good hitter go 0 for 20.

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

The AI cares as much about stats as you tell it to care about in the settings. But even if you have the ai set to mostly use stats in its evaluations, with a sample size that small, the ratings are still going to account for 99%. The stats only kick in once the sample gets big enough. Stats in that small as sample are useless to the ai, as they won't move the evaluation at all.

And frankly, would you want it any other way? If the ai took stats in that small a sample into account, you'd have it demoting MLB superstars when they go 0-4 in the season opener.

I would want it another way for guys who are drafted 3 weeks ago, yeah. A guy drafted earlier in the month who goes 3 for 18 in the minors shouldn't be called up. An established major leaguer going 3 for 18 should not be demoted. I think there's a clear difference there.

I'm trying to picture how this would go down in real life. Maybe a kid gets drafted out of colleges, and the scouts tell the GM, "Hey, this kid is legit, he could probably start for the major league squad right away." And the GM says, "Alright, well let's throw him in the minors just to make sure." Later that week, the GM says, "He's 3 for 20, I think you guys are right, let's call him up!"...? I guess if we had hard hit ball rate or xwOBA or something, the GM could say, "3 for 20 is pretty meaningless, his xwOBA is .500, get him up here!" Otherwise, I can't do the mental gymnastics to make this a realistic scenario.

Personally, I think it's a false equivalency to compare this to a major leaguer opening the season 0 for 4, or any regular hitter going 3 for 20. Context matters ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Neags23

I would want it another way for guys who are drafted 3 weeks ago, yeah. A guy drafted earlier in the month who goes 3 for 18 in the minors shouldn't be called up. An established major leaguer going 3 for 18 should not be demoted. I think there's a clear difference there.

I'm trying to picture how this would go down in real life. Maybe a kid gets drafted out of colleges, and the scouts tell the GM, "Hey, this kid is legit, he could probably start for the major league squad right away." And the GM says, "Alright, well let's throw him in the minors just to make sure." Later that week, the GM says, "He's 3 for 20, I think you guys are right, let's call him up!"...? I guess if we had hard hit ball rate or xwOBA or something, the GM could say, "3 for 20 is pretty meaningless, his xwOBA is .500, get him up here!" Otherwise, I can't do the mental gymnastics to make this a realistic scenario.

Personally, I think it's a false equivalency to compare this to a major leaguer opening the season 0 for 4, or any regular hitter going 3 for 20. Context matters ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You can't compare your situation to real life for a couple reasons. First being that your set up is different. You have only three levels of minor leagues, which means less roster spots and less likelihood of teams signing veteran minor leaguers or guys who have some MLB experience, but not a lot, who would fill in at the MLB level in a pinch. As a result, Stump was the best option at shortstop and got fast-tracked. In a minor league system with more teams, a prospect of his type is less likely to be "rushed" to the big leagues, even when injuries to guys ahead of him occur.

Second, with a smaller amount of minor leagues, you probably have a much smaller amount of free agents, particularly free agents of the quality that they would be capable of filling in at the big league level when an injury occurs.

You're right that this situation doesn't make realistic sense, but you're not dealing with a realistic game environment. And as good as OOTP is, it doesn't mirror everything 100 percent realistically. Combine those two things and it's easy to see how this scenario would happen.

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

You can't compare your situation to real life for a couple reasons. First being that your set up is different. You have only three levels of minor leagues, which means less roster spots and less likelihood of teams signing veteran minor leaguers or guys who have some MLB experience, but not a lot, who would fill in at the MLB level in a pinch. As a result, Stump was the best option at shortstop and got fast-tracked. In a minor league system with more teams, a prospect of his type is less likely to be "rushed" to the big leagues, even when injuries to guys ahead of him occur.

Second, with a smaller amount of minor leagues, you probably have a much smaller amount of free agents, particularly free agents of the quality that they would be capable of filling in at the big league level when an injury occurs.

You're right that this situation doesn't make realistic sense, but you're not dealing with a realistic game environment. And as good as OOTP is, it doesn't mirror everything 100 percent realistically. Combine those two things and it's easy to see how this scenario would happen.

Sure, I agree that my setup doesn't mirror reality. But I don't think it's really so different that all bets are off and really crazy stuff should be happening. Organizations have 90 spots for minor leaguers and only 25 for major leaguers. And guys who are just drafted days ago and don't perform well, even for very short stints, should occupy one of the 90, not one of the 25.

And my universe is quite large, as I have 16 concurrent major leagues with varying levels of minors for each league. So there are currently almost 1,000 FAs. Which actually might be a little too low, considering how many active players there are.

[Bluenoser]

How often has this happened in your universe?

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

How often has this happened in your universe?

No idea. Occasionally I'll just start looking around at guy's careers and draft classes and seeing how they're doing, and I stumbled across this. First time I've seen it.

I should note, this is less of a complaint and more of a "wtf " I don't think this is a fundamental, rampant issue with the AI blindly promoting players. I just think it's a funny, unrealistic choice by the AI, even within the confines of my universe, and (at least to me) showed a lack of regard for on-field results in making that choice (both because there are so few results to warrant a promotion, and because what data is there does not indicate a promotion was warranted). And FWIW, my weights are 40% ratings, 30% this year, 20% last year, 10% two years ago.

[Rain King]

To me, it looks more like a rehab assignment. This is a guy the team drafted to play right away and gave him some at-bats in the minor leagues to shake off the rust. The results of those few at-bats don't really matter if you believe in the talent.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Rain King

The results of those few at-bats don't really matter if you believe in the talent.

This is the best way I've seen it explained. The sample size is so ridiculously small that nobody - real life or the AI (as Matt explained) - is judging a player on the results. Belief in the talent far outweighs what happens in 20 plate appearances.

[koohead]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...eague_Baseball

[One Great Matrix]

Sort of a discourse but in 2015 the New York Mets made the World Series & besides Matt Harvey (even though they beat Kershaw & Greinke and whatever the Cubs had with some kind of Murphy-Cuban magic), all we really had to go on with the other 3 promising pitchers was minor league results.

Crazy things happen. That team almost won the World Series and since then:
Harvey. 41-44 entering 2020 (34-37 with the Mets). (Yeah, really)
Matz. 31-36 entering 2020. (Yeah, really). LET’S GO MATZ!
Syndegaard. 47-30 ENTERING 2020.
Wheeler. 44-38 entering 2020. Now with Phillies…
Degrom. 66-49 entering 2020. However in 2018 & 2019 with a total record of 21-17, he won 2 Cy Young Awards.

229 Wins, 197 Losses.

To more crazy.

[One Great Matrix]

Matz had something like 5 RBI in his debut in 5 or 6 PAs, don't get too caught up in those WAR numbers without taking a look at counts.

Stump hit over .400 for Austin.

[One Great Matrix]

Originally Posted by Neags23

No idea. Occasionally I'll just start looking around at guy's careers and draft classes and seeing how they're doing, and I stumbled across this. First time I've seen it.

I should note, this is less of a complaint and more of a "wtf " I don't think this is a fundamental, rampant issue with the AI blindly promoting players. I just think it's a funny, unrealistic choice by the AI, even within the confines of my universe, and (at least to me) showed a lack of regard for on-field results in making that choice (both because there are so few results to warrant a promotion, and because what data is there does not indicate a promotion was warranted). And FWIW, my weights are 40% ratings, 30% this year, 20% last year, 10% two years ago.

Sometimes the MLB team NEEDS a guy (injury usually), & they know who the guy is based on scouting. ... (not 19 PAs in the minors).
Maybe it's you or maybe it's Atlanta & Ted Turner running your team but I don't follow baseball because it's the most exciting sport in the galaxy. I follow because of little oddities a lot like this one by & large.