Scoring From Second on a Single

Bears5122 · 06-18-2019, 05:01 PM

I only started realizing this when I started to play out my games. The first year I thought it was odd so I started to track it in my 2nd year. Tthe number of runners who score from 2nd on a single is incredibly low. Even with 2 outs.

18% - Runner scoring from 2nd on single. With 2 outs that number is actually slightly less which is bizarre.I know baserunning aggressiveness has slowed down over the years, but players still score on singles from 2nd just under 60% of the time.

21% - Runner scoring from 1st on a double. Again, the MLB rate is over 40% here too.

Has anyone noticed this when playing out games? It doesn't seem to matter if I control baserunning or not. Doesn't matter the outfield arm or the speed of my runners. The opportunities to score from those spots seem ridiculously low and I'm wondering if this would skew stats over a season a lot.

stevem810 · 06-18-2019, 10:53 PM

I watch a very small volume of live games but, recently I had two thoughts:

1- A lot of runners don't even try and score from 2nd and 2 outs on a single and,
2- Often fast runners are cut down when they attempt to score.

Your data is kind of shocking.

DaBears · 06-20-2019, 10:08 PM

This is only the eye test, no data -

But, I play out every game and have consistently felt the percent of runners that keep going at third instead of stopping is astronomical versus real life.

Reed · 06-21-2019, 06:59 AM

I bet the developers have studied the data and I bet OOTP mirrors that data. Do not know for sure just going by how well they mirror other data.

andyhdz · 06-21-2019, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bears5122

I only started realizing this when I started to play out my games. The first year I thought it was odd so I started to track it in my 2nd year. Tthe number of runners who score from 2nd on a single is incredibly low. Even with 2 outs.

18% - Runner scoring from 2nd on single. With 2 outs that number is actually slightly less which is bizarre.I know baserunning aggressiveness has slowed down over the years, but players still score on singles from 2nd just under 60% of the time.

21% - Runner scoring from 1st on a double. Again, the MLB rate is over 40% here too.

Has anyone noticed this when playing out games? It doesn't seem to matter if I control baserunning or not. Doesn't matter the outfield arm or the speed of my runners. The opportunities to score from those spots seem ridiculously low and I'm wondering if this would skew stats over a season a lot.

18% and 21% of what total plays?

rbux · 06-21-2019, 06:33 PM

I completely agree agree with Bears. Seems new for this year and I'm not sure why. With 2 outs and the runner moving, less than 18%? Real station to station ball, no wonder my Rbi numbers are so low.

One Great Matrix · 06-21-2019, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bears5122

I only started realizing this when I started to play out my games. The first year I thought it was odd so I started to track it in my 2nd year. Tthe number of runners who score from 2nd on a single is incredibly low. Even with 2 outs.

18% - Runner scoring from 2nd on single. With 2 outs that number is actually slightly less which is bizarre.I know baserunning aggressiveness has slowed down over the years, but players still score on singles from 2nd just under 60% of the time.

21% - Runner scoring from 1st on a double. Again, the MLB rate is over 40% here too.

Has anyone noticed this when playing out games? It doesn't seem to matter if I control baserunning or not. Doesn't matter the outfield arm or the speed of my runners. The opportunities to score from those spots seem ridiculously low and I'm wondering if this would skew stats over a season a lot.

Seemed a bit low to me vs. RL. Hey there are other things...and I want to say this, that happen in RL that just can't and maybe shouldn't be simulated. Would be nice though to have all the sort of occurences that are tracked numerically (statistics) play as close to the real thing as possible. I did not notice this at all until I started playing PT...maybe because I cared who won, I might think, like he should be around from 2nd on that single...somehow I was thoughtless enough (or it is new this year) that I didn't notice it in many sims for sims sakes I did...seemed like everything was rather accurate.

A few select players are able to target home successfully from 220-360 feet away. The corner bases are hit & miss. 2nd base is almost a lob, sometimes as close as 110 feet. (Approximately)

Bears5122 · 06-21-2019, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reed

I bet the developers have studied the data and I bet OOTP mirrors that data. Do not know for sure just going by how well they mirror other data.

It doesn't mirror the real data. I'll keep tracking but it's starting to feel consistent as the sample size grows.

Bears5122 · 06-21-2019, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rbux

I completely agree agree with Bears. Seems new for this year and I'm not sure why. With 2 outs and the runner moving, less than 18%? Real station to station ball, no wonder my Rbi numbers are so low.

I didn't notice it last year but I didn't play out as many games. Started noticing I was getting a lot of 3 runs on 13 hit games.

MLB has the data on this so it should be able to be simulated.

BirdWatcher · 06-22-2019, 12:39 AM

So many different variables, so many different settings, so many different statistical environments in all of our varied OOTP universes.

The only sample size that would be meaningful to me would be one that encompassed far more than one OOTP players singular OOTP universe.

Anecdotally, the players on my team in my fictional universe don't have this problem. We score plenty in the situations you describe. Granted, my team has about the best base running in the league. And anecdotal means nothing. But really, pretty much all the evidence in this thread is anecdotal and that which isn't really means very little without more context, more control of variables, and just more of, well, everything.

Bears5122 · 06-22-2019, 01:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

So many different variables, so many different settings, so many different statistical environments in all of our varied OOTP universes.

The only sample size that would be meaningful to me would be one that encompassed far more than one OOTP players singular OOTP universe.

Anecdotally, the players on my team in my fictional universe don't have this problem. We score plenty in the situations you describe. Granted, my team has about the best base running in the league. And anecdotal means nothing. But really, pretty much all the evidence in this thread is anecdotal and that which isn't really means very little without more context, more control of variables, and just more of, well, everything.

What variable could possibly drop the rate over a season that dramatically? We aren't talking about being off 5-10%. Track it yourself and see.

dward1 · 06-22-2019, 05:34 AM

it's a disaster and has been for years. it's immediately obvious when you play games out which makes me puzzled how it slips through every year without being fixed. it's blatantly wrong

andyhdz · 06-22-2019, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bears5122

What variable could possibly drop the rate over a season that dramatically? We aren't talking about being off 5-10%. Track it yourself and see.

Until you show the actual numbers you used to "track it" instead of just throwing out percentages this is pretty much a qualitative study.

BirdWatcher · 06-22-2019, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dward1

it's a disaster and has been for years. it's immediately obvious when you play games out which makes me puzzled how it slips through every year without being fixed. it's blatantly wrong

Opinions, no matter how strongly worded, are not facts.
I do play out every game for my team and I have not observed this. My observations are also not facts.

But no facts have been presented here beyond some very vague and sketchy percentages with an undisclosed sample size in one particular OOTP'ers setup (no details known about strategic or statistical settings, etc.)

You say it's a disaster. Fair enough. For you it may be. But that doesn't make your truth a universal truth.

BirdWatcher · 06-22-2019, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bears5122

What variable could possibly drop the rate over a season that dramatically? We aren't talking about being off 5-10%. Track it yourself and see.

I feel no need to track something that seems to be working perfectly fine for me.
However, I would welcome more rigorous studies of this by many different gamers using many different set-ups, statistical and talent environments, etc. And if it turns out that there actually is a problem with how the game handles this and the developers can tighten things up a bit, great.

But at this point color me skeptical. I'm not hearing anything here that sounds like compelling evidence yet.

Mannyw · 06-22-2019, 04:25 PM

I agree that more runners and not trying to score from second even with two out, including very fast runners.

I also play out all my games for one team each season. I always have felt the number of runners thrown out at home is far too high, even with two out and a fast runner. I almost always hold the runner up when a choice is given because they are almost always thrown out.

I know, no actual data, just my personal experiences.

PocketsAintFull · 06-22-2019, 04:33 PM

I can't say i've noticed anything like this playing games, seems fine to me *shrugs*

RchW · 06-22-2019, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rbux

I completely agree agree with Bears. Seems new for this year and I'm not sure why. With 2 outs and the runner moving, less than 18%? Real station to station ball, no wonder my Rbi numbers are so low.

That's one small sample (max 162 of 4860 games ie 3%) from one saved league with no data such as league totals posted to establish continuity. Are RBI and runs scored down league wise? Data from league output would enhance the discussion. If run totals are not down 10% (what this claim should produce) then it suggests that runs are being scored by ways other than single and doubles. That strange pattern should be obvious unless the dreaded confirmation bias is at work.

Drstrangelove · 06-23-2019, 01:59 PM

Here's a full year comparison of OOTP (2021 season) based upon the 2016 MLB metrics in OOTP as compared to real MLB 2016 season stats. So, the 4,860 OOTP simulated games versus the 4,856 games MLB played in 2016.

First, just to point out, OOTP tracks scoring by base already (see the MLB statistics by team and use the drop down boxes to dig deeper), but there's not adequate accuracy in the team accumulated stats to answer the OP question posed. (The stats showing league scoring from any manner other than RISP scoring and total scoring don't appear to be tracked properly on the stats pages, as the stats purported to be scoring from individual bases (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, loaded, empty) seem wrong. E.g., it reports in my game over 12,000 runs scoring with the bases empty, which is clearly wrong. Most of these runs were almost certainly RISP runners that the game lost track of by base, and defaulted to the "empty base" bucket. Those runs should be reported in the stats as more scoring from other bases, while empty base scoring should reflect primarily solo homers. Instead, while I have only 3,196 solo homers, my league some how scored 12,529 runs with the bases empty. Logically, the number should be ~3,200 instead.)

However, that doesn't mean in-game runs are not scoring correctly. It may be only that while all the runs properly scored, they're not all being tracked correctly to the right base.

As a point of interest, gross scoring rate for RISP in the game does match MLB scoring very well. OOTP for my league using the 2016 base MLB metrics has 32.91% scoring per PA (14,858 runs in 45,151 PAs) compared to the actual MLB 2016 stat of 33.68% (15,530 runs in 46,116 PAs.)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...=MLB&year=2016. If OOTP isn't scoring runners from second at the correct rate, it seems odd that OOTP RISP would be so close to MLB RISP.

Also, if one uses Bill James updated and modified run creation formula, the total scoring is spot on.

A: H+BB-CS+HBP-GIDP
B: (1.125 * Singles) + (1.69 * Doubles) + (3.02 * Triples) + (3.73 * HR) +.29 * (BB-IBB+HBP) +.492 * (SH+SF+SB) - (.04 *K)
C: AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

In my league, the modern RC formula predicted 21,443 runs, but actual scoring was 21,713 runs, or a difference of 1.26%. (Interestingly enough, the in-game runs scored using MLB 2016 base rates was off by MLB scoring by just 31 runs. MLB 2016 was 21,744 runs while OOTP was 21,713 runs.) These numbers look great compared to actual. It again seems odd that if scoring from second was off, that total scoring would still be within 1% of predicted.

So, IF second base scoring is low (although it isn't proved by any stats I've found), it's apparently being made up somewhere else within the game engine to the point that RISP, total scoring and RC are all working within ~1% of expected. My guess is that if the game engine was tracking all the scoring to the proper base (not just the generic RISP), then it would demonstrate scoring from second is working properly as well.

dward1 · 07-01-2019, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

Opinions, no matter how strongly worded, are not facts.
I do play out every game for my team and I have not observed this. My observations are also not facts.

But no facts have been presented here beyond some very vague and sketchy percentages with an undisclosed sample size in one particular OOTP'ers setup (no details known about strategic or statistical settings, etc.)

You say it's a disaster. Fair enough. For you it may be. But that doesn't make your truth a universal truth.

It is truth. If you don’t realize it you don’t have a feel for baseball

06-18-2019, 05:01 PM	#1
Bears5122 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 846	Scoring From Second on a Single I only started realizing this when I started to play out my games. The first year I thought it was odd so I started to track it in my 2nd year. Tthe number of runners who score from 2nd on a single is incredibly low. Even with 2 outs. 18% - Runner scoring from 2nd on single. With 2 outs that number is actually slightly less which is bizarre.I know baserunning aggressiveness has slowed down over the years, but players still score on singles from 2nd just under 60% of the time. 21% - Runner scoring from 1st on a double. Again, the MLB rate is over 40% here too. Has anyone noticed this when playing out games? It doesn't seem to matter if I control baserunning or not. Doesn't matter the outfield arm or the speed of my runners. The opportunities to score from those spots seem ridiculously low and I'm wondering if this would skew stats over a season a lot.

06-18-2019, 10:53 PM	#2
stevem810 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Sarasota Posts: 1,925	I watch a very small volume of live games but, recently I had two thoughts: 1- A lot of runners don't even try and score from 2nd and 2 outs on a single and, 2- Often fast runners are cut down when they attempt to score. Your data is kind of shocking. __________________ Julien Henri Version 21 https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...22#post4626122 Michigan Town Ball https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...28#post4630528

06-22-2019, 04:33 PM	#17
PocketsAintFull All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Birmingham, UK Posts: 1,771	I can't say i've noticed anything like this playing games, seems fine to me shrugs __________________

06-23-2019, 01:59 PM	#19
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	Here's a full year comparison of OOTP (2021 season) based upon the 2016 MLB metrics in OOTP as compared to real MLB 2016 season stats. So, the 4,860 OOTP simulated games versus the 4,856 games MLB played in 2016. First, just to point out, OOTP tracks scoring by base already (see the MLB statistics by team and use the drop down boxes to dig deeper), but there's not adequate accuracy in the team accumulated stats to answer the OP question posed. (The stats showing league scoring from any manner other than RISP scoring and total scoring don't appear to be tracked properly on the stats pages, as the stats purported to be scoring from individual bases (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st and 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, loaded, empty) seem wrong. E.g., it reports in my game over 12,000 runs scoring with the bases empty, which is clearly wrong. Most of these runs were almost certainly RISP runners that the game lost track of by base, and defaulted to the "empty base" bucket. Those runs should be reported in the stats as more scoring from other bases, while empty base scoring should reflect primarily solo homers. Instead, while I have only 3,196 solo homers, my league some how scored 12,529 runs with the bases empty. Logically, the number should be ~3,200 instead.) However, that doesn't mean in-game runs are not scoring correctly. It may be only that while all the runs properly scored, they're not all being tracked correctly to the right base. As a point of interest, gross scoring rate for RISP in the game does match MLB scoring very well. OOTP for my league using the 2016 base MLB metrics has 32.91% scoring per PA (14,858 runs in 45,151 PAs) compared to the actual MLB 2016 stat of 33.68% (15,530 runs in 46,116 PAs.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...=MLB&year=2016. If OOTP isn't scoring runners from second at the correct rate, it seems odd that OOTP RISP would be so close to MLB RISP. Also, if one uses Bill James updated and modified run creation formula, the total scoring is spot on. A: H+BB-CS+HBP-GIDP B: (1.125 * Singles) + (1.69 * Doubles) + (3.02 * Triples) + (3.73 * HR) +.29 * (BB-IBB+HBP) +.492 * (SH+SF+SB) - (.04 K) C: AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created In my league, the modern RC formula predicted 21,443 runs, but actual scoring was 21,713 runs, or a difference of 1.26%. (Interestingly enough, the in-game runs scored using MLB 2016 base rates was off by MLB scoring by just 31 runs. MLB 2016 was 21,744 runs while OOTP was 21,713 runs.) These numbers look great compared to actual. It again seems odd that if scoring from second was off, that total scoring would still be within 1% of predicted. So, IF second base scoring is low (although it isn't proved by any stats I've found), it's apparently being made up somewhere else within the game engine to the point that RISP, total scoring and RC are all working within ~1% of expected. My guess is that if the game engine was tracking all the scoring to the proper base (not just the generic RISP), then it would demonstrate scoring from second is working properly as well. Last edited by Drstrangelove; 06-24-2019 at 12:28 AM.*

06-20-2019, 10:08 PM	#3
DaBears Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 468	This is only the eye test, no data - But, I play out every game and have consistently felt the percent of runners that keep going at third instead of stopping is astronomical versus real life.

06-21-2019, 06:59 AM	#4
Reed All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,942	I bet the developers have studied the data and I bet OOTP mirrors that data. Do not know for sure just going by how well they mirror other data.

06-21-2019, 06:33 PM	#6
rbux Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Edmonds, Wa Posts: 50	I completely agree agree with Bears. Seems new for this year and I'm not sure why. With 2 outs and the runner moving, less than 18%? Real station to station ball, no wonder my Rbi numbers are so low.

06-22-2019, 12:39 AM	#10
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,262	So many different variables, so many different settings, so many different statistical environments in all of our varied OOTP universes. The only sample size that would be meaningful to me would be one that encompassed far more than one OOTP players singular OOTP universe. Anecdotally, the players on my team in my fictional universe don't have this problem. We score plenty in the situations you describe. Granted, my team has about the best base running in the league. And anecdotal means nothing. But really, pretty much all the evidence in this thread is anecdotal and that which isn't really means very little without more context, more control of variables, and just more of, well, everything.

06-22-2019, 05:34 AM	#12
dward1 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 929	it's a disaster and has been for years. it's immediately obvious when you play games out which makes me puzzled how it slips through every year without being fixed. it's blatantly wrong

06-22-2019, 04:25 PM	#16
Mannyw Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2017 Location: Lake Stevens, Washington Posts: 53	I agree that more runners and not trying to score from second even with two out, including very fast runners. I also play out all my games for one team each season. I always have felt the number of runners thrown out at home is far too high, even with two out and a fast runner. I almost always hold the runner up when a choice is given because they are almost always thrown out. I know, no actual data, just my personal experiences.