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11-02-2019, 02:13 PM | #21 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Oct 2018
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Argonaut your post has helped me a lot but....
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Thanks to your post I may understand why. I am amazed at how many times I witness say Catcher X with a 100 plus ability and say a 90 plus arm HAVE a much higher CERA over Catcher Z with a 20 ability and 40 arm. TOP That off with if the lower ability Catcher is a better hitter and the WAR stat is a huge difference. Heck, I have repeatedly seen comparable hitting catchers end result being the catcher with the lower ability/arm have a much better WAR. I actually have recently been studying the same thing and Pudge was just one of many reasons I studied this. I may now understand what is going on thanks to your post. The only thing we disagree on is that I feel based off of 100's of PT observations and dozens of single player seasons (looking at every team catcher stats) that a catcher with a better ability is even WORSE then the one with lower ability. This will change how I play both single and PT from now on. I'll mainly just go for a pure hitter with a total disregard for catcher ability or even choose the lower ability on purpose. I do notice a decent difference in throwing out runners so I'll still try to get a guy with a good arm. Have a great day Argonaut and love the screen name. I actually have a dog named Argos. |
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11-02-2019, 02:30 PM | #22 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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Cera
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look at King arm/ability then his CERA Those images are from a guy playing now in OOTP and is a small sample compared to the 100s I studied from PT and thousands I studied in single player. This is very common. I have been studying examples like this for quite some time. Your post and others gave me some insight as to why this is. Overall OOTP does great job with the WAR stat and that is the stat for me that helps a lot as to which catcher I should use. Only problem with the WAR is I like to give both Catchers a fair amount of playing time in a couple of seasons which is fine for PT because they do not age but not so great for single player. |
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11-02-2019, 02:33 PM | #23 |
Minors (Triple A)
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Thank you for directing me to this link. I'm learning a lot and have some new ideas thanks to you and others posts here.
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11-02-2019, 02:38 PM | #24 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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Your logic
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11-02-2019, 02:40 PM | #25 |
Minors (Triple A)
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True but
Very true but an overall catcher with a much higher catcher ability/arm stat should not consistently have a lower CERA. Just no way does that make any sense.
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11-02-2019, 02:42 PM | #26 |
Minors (Triple A)
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Very true. I agree RonCo
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11-02-2019, 02:45 PM | #27 |
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The 10,000 games that Argonaut simmed show catchers with a higher catcher rating decrease ERA.
Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-02-2019 at 02:46 PM. |
11-02-2019, 03:49 PM | #28 |
All Star Starter
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A little data can be a dangerous thing. I don't think you're drawing the right conclusions from my posts, ThrownOutAtHome. The one thing I do agree with you is that I don't know what's going on in Perfect Team with respect to catchers, and it's near impossible to test.
But a catcher with great ratings will mean the difference between many wins and losses according to the Simulation Module in OOTP. I hope everyone also disregards what I said about catchers and home runs allowed because I believe it's irrelevant data. |
11-02-2019, 04:40 PM | #29 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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A little data can be a dangerous thing
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Do you play PT at all? I have felt all along that catchers ability is meaningless in PT and time after time it proves to be true. When it comes to Catchers I am just going by intuition and hitting abilities....and that has been lining up with more wins and a better WAR. Thank you for your posts. I'm going to experiment by putting guys in at Catcher that are not Catchers at all and compare their CERA. |
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11-02-2019, 05:00 PM | #30 |
Minors (Triple A)
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Never mind my question about if you ever played PT.
I just noticed the cool signature with championships, |
11-02-2019, 06:01 PM | #31 |
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11-02-2019, 06:28 PM | #32 |
Minors (Triple A)
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OK Thank You
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11-02-2019, 08:39 PM | #33 |
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Sorry if I came off a bit abrupt. Any poster should always be able to disagree with any other! It's been a stressful week here. That's never a good excuse, but it's all I got. Learning: Never respond to things like this from a hospital.
Here are a couple threads on catcher defense from GMs in the BBA online league with several typse of studies in them. The first is mine, but the others take different approaches. http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=25186 http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=26010 There's also a good study in one of our league's pre-season media guides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_l...ew?usp=sharing |
11-02-2019, 10:00 PM | #34 | |
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One thing I would also add is that WAR doesn't tell the whole story for catchers. As far as I can tell the whole pitch framing thing (more K's, fewer BB's) doesn't show up in a catcher's WAR. And that's like the entire value of a defensive catcher! So pitchers are "stealing" that WAR from catchers. I think it was Fangraphs that recently made adjustments to catcher WAR to take into account pitch framing. Some catchers like Yadi got a huge boost and others got a WAR subtraction. I don't think this is in OOTP yet, maybe next year. |
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11-03-2019, 11:50 AM | #35 |
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Interesting stuff, thanks for doing this.
My questions are bit different. My understanding of how the game engine works is that there are overall rates for batting average, types of hits, walks, strikeouts and so forth. If that is true, shouldn't you see off-setting moves in the San Diego players in your 30,000 sims? Did you look there? It might confirm, explain or deny conclusions. Just curious.
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11-03-2019, 10:55 PM | #36 | |
Major Leagues
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OOTP (and computer sims going back to Earl Weaver Baseball) I'm sure are more sophisticated as to how, as the old dice games had to have separate cards for batters and pitchers to roll on, so extremes couldn't be in the game (a pitcher who only walked 1.5/9 innings would walk more because it's either on the batter's card or the pitchers, where computers could combine and get their own probabilities). But it's probably something like the formula determine the percentage chance of each outcome, including very rare outcomes like triple plays, and then the "dice" decide which, all on one scale. |
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11-04-2019, 12:12 AM | #37 | |
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As I mentioned, Tony Gwynn batted well over .400 against the awful defense. |
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11-05-2019, 04:25 AM | #38 | |
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Earl Weaver
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11-05-2019, 04:27 AM | #39 |
Minors (Triple A)
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Posts: 242
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Do you think PT stats such as the Catchers are very different from single player mode? To me it seems that the game is running off of the same statistical engine. I have learned a lot from you so far from reading many of your posts and thank you for all that.
Wish you the best. |
11-05-2019, 04:29 AM | #40 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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It's ok to come off abrupt.....
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We do not need "safe spaces" in OOTP game or forums. Your'e a good guy and are one of a few that has helped me with your posts. |
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