Aaron Judge

[Izz]

imo, he's about right for both eye and avoid Ks already. With that avoid K rating he'll whiff a bit for sure, but with that eye rating he'll work the count to 3-2 (and get a decent amount of walks) more than he'll go down swinging 0-2.

[DawnBTVS]

I think Judge is actually closer to Chris Davis than most think but I think he'll hit for a higher contact rate. There is no way that Judge maintains his current .423 BABIP rate IMO (just a reasonable guess). I think he finishes the season around .290-.300 BA wise with a few slow weeks/a slow month in there.

It's worth noting that Judge is on pace for 190 K if you pro-rate his K/PA to 660 PA for the entire season at this point in time.

People also forget Davis led MLB with 53 HR and 47 HR in 2 years.

[r0nster]

@Deja Bru


Handling success is good but also handling press would need to be included for many players do NOT handle press that well in NYC but in smaller markets like Detroit or Miami or KC the handling of press is much easier
At same token success can goto their heads as well. or the frustration of lack of attention when doing so well.

[r0nster]

BTW in my game Aaron Judge was a career minor leaguer never broke into the bigs. played till 2023

[Wingedlion14]

I'm not the best with ratings, but maybe the most accurate thing would he to leave everything else the same and bump up BABIP so that contact is 65 or so? That way he strikes out a lot while still having a high average. Just spitballing here.

[NoOne]

come back in a couple years on aaron judge... however, my money is that they bump him at some point because he plays for a high profile team / popular / media blah blah blah... basically public from player base due to all of that might cause it to rise a bit early ... meh, took at least ~2 years for jd martinez to get respect, and rightfully so.

i say go look up any number of players like brennan boesch (sp?) or that red headed first basebaseman that was hitting .400 through june with power or something similar, lol. (Chris Shelton!)

never to be heard of again... it's a real possibilty, still.

[Rayzor]

This is from my save MLB 2017-2030 here is Aaron's career totals. As u can see he didn't do every well

[babs42]

Originally Posted by NoOne

come back in a couple years on aaron judge... however, my money is that they bump him at some point because he plays for a high profile team / popular / media blah blah blah... basically public from player base due to all of that might cause it to rise a bit early ... meh, took at least ~2 years for jd martinez to get respect, and rightfully so.

i say go look up any number of players like brennan boesch (sp?) or that red headed first basebaseman that was hitting .400 through june with power or something similar, lol. (Chris Shelton!)

never to be heard of again... it's a real possibilty, still.

Don't get me wrong, it's very possible he is a flash in the pan. But, this is more than a hot streak, and its better than JD's numbers. This is half of a season playing as one of the best 2 or 3 overall players in baseball. And if you look at his splits over individual months, he hasn't hit a cold streak yet. I think this is more than a guy who's gonna burn out. He may not be as good as he is now, but I find it unlikely he will completely fall off. He's showing a lot of signs that his talent will stay at the Major League level. Just maybe not at superstar level (although it's possible).

[Danbo80]

To all of the critics of Judge, how often have you seen him play? or are you just going off the numbers? I have to ask because I have never seen a guy hit the ball out of the park with such ease in 30 years of watching baseball(steroid Bonds excluded).

Sure, the strikeouts will definitely do a number on his average, but he is still a rookie(25, i know) and has already shown great improvement in strike zone judgement from his minor league days. Theres no reason not to expect at least some improvement in that regard.

All these comparisons to flash in the pan players is just insane to me.

[DawnBTVS]

Originally Posted by Danbo80

To all of the critics of Judge, how often have you seen him play? or are you just going off the numbers? I have to ask because I have never seen a guy hit the ball out of the park with such ease in 30 years of watching baseball(steroid Bonds excluded).

Sure, the strikeouts will definitely do a number on his average, but he is still a rookie(25, i know) and has already shown great improvement in strike zone judgement from his minor league days. Theres no reason not to expect at least some improvement in that regard.

All these comparisons to flash in the pan players is just insane to me.

I see him way too much being a Red Sox fan Usually via MLB Network or YES Network (love David Cone as an announcer though). The whole "ease" thing has no bearing for me... McGwire and Sosa made it look ridiculously easy too and the 1997-2002 era saw guys approaching 30 HRs by the All-Star Break often.

My issues are the following...
#1: He's still pro-rated to strike out a lot. Yes, his plate discipline has improved but his BABIP is simply unsunstainable (seriously, it's .423! There's no way he ends the year at that). He's still ranked 7th in MLB in strikeouts...

#2: Last year's small sample size pro-rates out to a 28 HR year. His AAA numbers would've pro-rated to 20 and 31 HR over a full season. His minor league career he has a .278 BA... I think he's realistically closer to a .275-.290 BA type hitter than his current .330 BA.

He's not super pacing the MLB either. Logan Morrison, Cody Bellinger, George Springer, and Joey Votto all have 24 HR and are within 4 HR of Judge.

#3: You said it, he's 25 years old and most primes are 26-29 years old in the MLB. Let's be conservative here and call him a guy who will turn into a superstar. 2014-2016 saw the HR leaders finished around 42-43 HR with a couple guys surging up to 47. Aaron Judge is on pace for 52 HR for the 2017 Season.

2017: Let's say he finishes with 50 HR, never has a real slow month.

Let's also say that he plays 10 more seasons and retires at the age of 36. At best, I have him finishing his career with 669 HR as his power goes bonkers and he sustains enough of a BA to stick around.

Realistically: I have him around 374 career home runs assuming he doesn't miss many games or any seasons with a major injury. He has a 50 HR year, a few 40s, and a few 30s. Very good player with fans wondering what he could've done if he had come up at 20 or 21 years old instead.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by babs42

Don't get me wrong, it's very possible he is a flash in the pan. But, this is more than a hot streak, and its better than JD's numbers. This is half of a season playing as one of the best 2 or 3 overall players in baseball. And if you look at his splits over individual months, he hasn't hit a cold streak yet. I think this is more than a guy who's gonna burn out. He may not be as good as he is now, but I find it unlikely he will completely fall off. He's showing a lot of signs that his talent will stay at the Major League level. Just maybe not at superstar level (although it's possible).

and i respect that it might not be a flash in the pan...

what amounts to speculation has nothign to do with reality - i say that for both of us, but my opinion isn't a specific expectation or guess, it's a visualized distribution curve of likely results that's slowly shaping into something more precise as he plays more. it's just an big grey amorphous blob at the moment. anythign more is guessing, which is great for sport-radio call-ins honestly, listening to sports talk radio kills brain cells at a faster rate than alcohol...

there have been numerous players that have done similar things -- highlights the need for a suitable sample size lest we get fooled again and again by seemingly randomness of results.

this isn't unusual. even if it doesn't happen in an obvious way. typically, at least a few players each year exhibit this type of extraordinary returns on their talents, and it just didn't randomly happen the first 282 AB of their careers - normal if you don't reference one specific range of time. And, i guess we are ignoring the fall-on-his-face first 100ab or so?

and his numbers are definitely higher than JD's - wasn't the point of the example in any way because it isn't relevant. it was that it was unknown for ~2years (slowly more accurately known over time, not a night/day thing at any point)...

if i had to guess he's going to be at least a good power hitter... HoF speculation is WAY to early, lol. empirically!

heh, funny another thread tied into this... high hr totals lend themselves to higher babip values (a big effect on the guys focusing on launch angles with good power* required -- aaron judge def. qualifies)...

so, Judge's babip is a bit bloated, therefore not so unsustainable, maybe?. i have no problem listing things that may help point toward an eventualy answer, but it amounts to uncertainty due to sample size no matter how you slice it or how much you love the yankees

Let's wait and see what happens the 3rd-4th-5th time he sees a SP and even more on the RP in some cases. the league will find his weakness and it will be exploited until he can adjust... he's at the end of a honey-moon period for sure.

as far as Judge the person, i hope for the best... the truth will out, rest assured... with a total disregard and spite for our opinions.

___________________
Since i can't click thanks twice for the previous DawnBTVS, i'll do it here... although if your guesstimates for retiring at 36 are the line for betting and he does what you speculated in the previous points, i'd be tempted to bet on the higher side... good vegas line all about health i guess.

(read after i responded)

[DawnBTVS]

Another issue with Judge is his age and that he's 25 years old. It's just something I can't get past. Nearly every superstar HR hitter that you can think of, they were showcasing 35+ HR power anywhere from 21-23 years old (much like Cody Bellinger is and he's just 21. Where's the thread for him?)

The closest comparisons to Judge as far as this power explosion at his age I can find are the following players...
- Jose Bautista: Exploded at age 29 with a 54 HR Season. He's currently sitting at 322 HR for his career and is 36 years old this year.
- Albert Belle: Exploded at age 24. Retired due to degenerative hip. From 1991-2000 he had 373 HR. Probably would have finished around 425 for his career if healthy.
- Andres Galarraga: Coors Factor. Power came at age 27. From 1988-2000 he hit 335 HR but also had serious medical issues. Could've finished career around 430 HR if he stayed healthy.
- Jason Giambi: Hit 20 HR at age 25 (1996) and played until he was 43 years old. From 1996-2008 he had hit 390 HR.
- Ryan Howard: Exploded for 58 HR at age 26 but hit 22 HR the year prior in just 348 PA. From 2005-2011 he hit 284 HR but finished career with just 382.
- Jim Thome: There are two caveats here - He played until he was 41 years old and he had 2 years of 20 & 25 HR before he exploded for 38 at 25 years old.

With the sole exception of Jim Thome, an extreme aberration in MLB history really, the majority of those players finished around 380-440 HR for their careers. Even really looking around guys like Todd Helton hit 49 HR at age 27.

I'm struggling to find any reasonable expectation that he'll be a Future Hall of Famer. He's definitely All-Star caliber but I'd hedge my bets that he'll end up more like a Jason Giambi/Ryan Howard type power hitter at the high upside.

Also be careful of relying so heavily on the Pre-All Star Break factor as it's only half a season. How well is Judge gonna do when he's around 110-120 games played?

Rates for Career Pre-ASB and Post-ASB
Hank Aaron: 1st Half HR/G = 0.244 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.212
Barry Bonds: 1st Half HR/G = 0.251 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.260*
Ken Griffey Jr: 1st Half HR/G = 0.244 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.225
Aaron Judge: 1st Half HR/G = 0.358 (2017) vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.148 (2016)
Mark McGwire: 1st Half HR/G = 0.317 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.304
Albert Pujols: 1st Half HR/G = 0.242 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.239
Alex Rodriguez: 1st Half HR/G = 0.244 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.257*
Babe Ruth: 1st Half HR/G = 0.299 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.271
Sammy Sosa: 1st Half HR/G = 0.241 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.282*
Frank Thomas: 1st Half HR/G = 0.229 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.218

[Pirates]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

We sure try to get it as close as possible to reality, but since we're doing most of the work before the seasons starts, obviously we're not always going to get it right

That is reasonable.
My question is: At any time during the MLB year do you guys update player performance based on real current year stats?

Thank you

[mitch0301]

Aaron Judge, for me, never even becomes serviceable in OOTP. I can get down with regression or even flash in the pan. I don't expect player ratings to be particularly fluid but in a case like this he should at least replicate his athletic potential (his defensive ratings may as well be reminiscent to Mark Trumbo rather then a guy who excelled as a three sport athlete in High School) as well as his hitting potential. I guess I wouldnt be asking for the same changes for Justin Bour, Justin Smoak or Yander Alonso so maybe it isn't the right answer. Perhaps, in general, there may need to a bit more fluidity in when a player can peak. I don't know. This is one of those seasons where something has changed in the game and everyone is crediting fly ball rates and new hitting techniques. We'll see if it has staying power.

[ConStar]

Just in case anyone cares, I'm playing a game I started in 2013 and have been updating every year the new OOTP comes out (I play a game a day, no more and no less).

He was drafted in the second round in 2013 by the Washington Nationals and projected, on a 20-point scale, as a 10-16-9 guy (contact/power/eye). Following the 2014 season, he was traded to another team (my league has six fictional teams in addition to the standard MLB teams; he landed with one of those). He hit 19 home runs last year at AA and has 17 so far in AAA (I follow the calendar exactly, so this is current as of 7/7/17), projecting to hit 29 by season's end. He's hitting in the low .240s right now with just 15 doubles and projects to strike out 170 times in 463 at-bats.

His scouting rankings are now 7-11-8 via this team's top scout, who just happens to be Theo Epstein. OSA has him at 6-12-6.

I realize this doesn't pertain to the original question, but I thought some of you would find it interesting to see where the 2013 version of the guy was headed. Basically, he's going to stall out in AAA unless the team he's on trades him. That team already has 3-4 better options for corner outfield spots, with a couple of them younger than Judge.

[The Yurpman]

In my Red Sox MLB QS game Judge hit .219 with 6 HR in 2017 and .228 with 9 HR in 2018 in limited playing time for the Yankees. The Yankees then traded him in the 2018 off-season to the Athletics for two prospects.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Pirates

That is reasonable.
My question is: At any time during the MLB year do you guys update player performance based on real current year stats?

Thank you

Yes, it's already happened some in the latest update and it'll happen more in the next one.

[DawnBTVS]

Interesting to see the variance re: Judge.

Here's how Judge did in my Phillies playthrough thus far
- 2017: 36 HR and .246/.305/.481
- 2018: 43 HR and .254/.338/.520
- 2019: 48 HR and .246/.315/.530
- 2020: 48 HR and .233/.315/.508

His power is dead on, IMO. At age 28 his Contact of 50/50 is a little low (I'd suggest around a 66-72 range maybe) and 61/61 Eye seems a little low but he has had 2 seasons with 70 BB. I'd maybe bump that to around a 68 or so but not much higher.

Fun Fact? He's stolen 27 bases and been thrown out only 9 times.

[NoOne]

he's a 'sexy' S Moya in ootp, lol.

if he had more of a pedigree he'd have more potential... right or wrong, he must prove more than a hot-shot prospect. should be the same for both - "show me"

[Danbo80]

Is he not showing you? I understand its half a season, But the best half season by a rookie in a long time.