Thoughts on Player Development, scouting, and the farm system - Page 2

NoOne · 04-24-2018, 01:03 PM

there could be some under-the-hood effect... i've seen guys that are consistent for 10 years, others who are volatile, but still relative to their ratings, and guys that consistently underperform over a long period of time with similar ratings over that time.

could just be luck too. the naked eye cannot discern this effect if it is in fact real.

definitely ignore overall for all but the simplest things like sorting fully developed players.. never use it as a decision maker.

galeg: lock the mor eimportant guys and try not to worry about the borderline MLB'ers when in the minors.. .if they lag at a certain level, it's not loss to you and helps provide a winning team too... that keeps the important prospects happier etc. plus, ego concerns of your win/loss records over time

ratings are incredibily inaccurate for the young and inexperienced..

once they have ~3 years in minors they are way more accurate than early on.. futhre influenced by age... may only take a 22 year old 1 year to adjust poor scouting, but an 18 year old takes more time to 'fix' potential scouting errors.

you can prove this by turnign comissioner mode on.. go through each player at each level in editor and shortlist the 'better' ones... then go back to player list with your typical choices for scouting accuracy active... sort by potential... at rookie you will see a very widely scattered capitalized names -- a large poriton will be severely underrated early on and many of the high ratings you see at rookie level are inflated nonsense.. by AAA most of these capitalized names will be a the top with mor accurate becuase you 'know' these players better by AAA. few inflated players at this point.. at AAA and beyond it's more a matter of looking at con/gap/power/eye etc and common sense > overall/potential as far as what to expect in results in your league.

inacccuracy is influenced my multiple factors and is not evenly applied in all contexts.

the more time you ahve them in your system, the better you scout them. even in other systems, but a greater effect in yours with time.

same with mlb players.. 3 years in league, they are probably spot on or you can tell what's "off" through stats by that point. 3 years on your team? they are almost certainly accurately rated.

all you can tell in mil stats is whether their current ability is relative to the baseline in that league.. and the average player there in competition... which won't translate to mlb in ootp (RL is different in this concern.. much stronger correlation to mil stats)

lots of budget room? spend it! max out budgets, go nuts in alternating years with IAFA on july 2nd etc... short term expesnive contracts of FA that won't hurt you when it comes time to sign extensions with younger/longer-term players etc etc...

overpay the guy 30M a year for 2 years, heck 50m for 1 year whatever fits the future salary comittments and budget space.. who cares if it's not hurting you. just don't spend like a drunken sailor if it impedes future success.

also like qeltar said.. the initial afford may seem daunting.. .but after that is is incremental effort... minor maintenace at specific points in year to keep it up-to-date... having a good plan is essential... being organized really helps implement the plan.

create filters for different things.. relate those filters to the concept about scouting accuracy.. ie you can be stricter and more precisse with minimum values you want at each rating when looking at FA than draft picks... save thsoe filters and views.. adjust them, delete them/start over whatever is neeeded. eventaulyl it'll be clockwork

drhay53 · 04-24-2018, 01:23 PM

When looking at a coaches 'development influence' page, you can change which team it is for in the top right corner of the screen.

jpeters1734 · 04-24-2018, 01:27 PM

great post!

wallewalls · 04-24-2018, 01:27 PM

Wait so do we have confirmation that international scouting budget doesn’t effect the international amateurs?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SayHey1 · 04-25-2018, 02:51 AM

This is outstanding. Thank you for this. It is exactly what I was looking for.

garion333 · 04-25-2018, 10:32 AM

Brilliant post.

I find shortlists to be unwieldy to use so I'm surprised you live and die by them.

Déjà Bru · 04-25-2018, 12:08 PM

There is some really good advice in this thread. Bookmarked for later compilation of notes to self. Thanks.

Qeltar · 04-25-2018, 10:03 PM

Question for experts: do player ratings go up or down based on their actual performance or just the random factors in the engine?

I have a 1B reclamation project I got as a minors FA who is tearing the cover off the ball at single A (1.330 OPS with a nutty 17 HR in 130 or so AB) but his ratings are still mediocre at best. I'm not sure if I should move him up to challenge him more, or if lower ratings will make his progress slow.

Part of the issue is that he's 27, which seems to be around when guys stop really improving.

Thanks.

Qeltar · 04-30-2018, 05:43 PM

Okay so I have a question on this great post...

"Front Office Spends
More is of course, more... so yes - unless absolutely impossible, I do max out both player development allocation (36m) and scouting (24m). The smart money will surely point out that this leads to diminishing returns - something closer to ~20m/~15m still more likely puts you in the relative top spenders - plus likely gives you room for a superstar contract, but churn baby, churn... "

Let's say your ENTIRE budget for the year is... $112m. On a pure rebuilding team. Clearly $60m on dev/scouting is not an option.

I was considering going as high as $24m for development and $12m for scouting, but I realize even that is 30% of the whole budget. It leaves very little to actually spend on players.

The idea behind the plan is to get the best young players and maximize the value from them while they are cheap, and then let most of them walk when they get older. A few might become popular "franchise players" and hopefully by then gate revenues will have increased to allow me to afford them.

Is this completely nutty? Just curious what you vets think. TBH, in my first season (just completed) I did about $10m for scouting and $6m for development (had no idea what I was doing really) and ended the year with a pile of left over cash due to salary dumping anyway.

Just wondering... where are the diminishing returns on spending on this stuff?

Also, do fan favorite / franchise players at least partially pay for themselves by selling tickets, as long as they aren't complete stiffs?

Thanks for the great info.

Franchise · 05-01-2018, 10:31 AM

Thanks for going into such detail about how you operate. I've been playing OOTP since OOTP 4 and it's always nice to get a different perspective.

04-24-2018, 01:03 PM	#21
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	there could be some under-the-hood effect... i've seen guys that are consistent for 10 years, others who are volatile, but still relative to their ratings, and guys that consistently underperform over a long period of time with similar ratings over that time. could just be luck too. the naked eye cannot discern this effect if it is in fact real. definitely ignore overall for all but the simplest things like sorting fully developed players.. never use it as a decision maker. galeg: lock the mor eimportant guys and try not to worry about the borderline MLB'ers when in the minors.. .if they lag at a certain level, it's not loss to you and helps provide a winning team too... that keeps the important prospects happier etc. plus, ego concerns of your win/loss records over time ratings are incredibily inaccurate for the young and inexperienced.. once they have ~3 years in minors they are way more accurate than early on.. futhre influenced by age... may only take a 22 year old 1 year to adjust poor scouting, but an 18 year old takes more time to 'fix' potential scouting errors. you can prove this by turnign comissioner mode on.. go through each player at each level in editor and shortlist the 'better' ones... then go back to player list with your typical choices for scouting accuracy active... sort by potential... at rookie you will see a very widely scattered capitalized names -- a large poriton will be severely underrated early on and many of the high ratings you see at rookie level are inflated nonsense.. by AAA most of these capitalized names will be a the top with mor accurate becuase you 'know' these players better by AAA. few inflated players at this point.. at AAA and beyond it's more a matter of looking at con/gap/power/eye etc and common sense > overall/potential as far as what to expect in results in your league. inacccuracy is influenced my multiple factors and is not evenly applied in all contexts. the more time you ahve them in your system, the better you scout them. even in other systems, but a greater effect in yours with time. same with mlb players.. 3 years in league, they are probably spot on or you can tell what's "off" through stats by that point. 3 years on your team? they are almost certainly accurately rated. all you can tell in mil stats is whether their current ability is relative to the baseline in that league.. and the average player there in competition... which won't translate to mlb in ootp (RL is different in this concern.. much stronger correlation to mil stats) lots of budget room? spend it! max out budgets, go nuts in alternating years with IAFA on july 2nd etc... short term expesnive contracts of FA that won't hurt you when it comes time to sign extensions with younger/longer-term players etc etc... overpay the guy 30M a year for 2 years, heck 50m for 1 year whatever fits the future salary comittments and budget space.. who cares if it's not hurting you. just don't spend like a drunken sailor if it impedes future success. also like qeltar said.. the initial afford may seem daunting.. .but after that is is incremental effort... minor maintenace at specific points in year to keep it up-to-date... having a good plan is essential... being organized really helps implement the plan. create filters for different things.. relate those filters to the concept about scouting accuracy.. ie you can be stricter and more precisse with minimum values you want at each rating when looking at FA than draft picks... save thsoe filters and views.. adjust them, delete them/start over whatever is neeeded. eventaulyl it'll be clockwork Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 01:15 PM.

04-24-2018, 01:27 PM	#23
jpeters1734 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2014 Location: Juust a bit outside... Posts: 5,617	great post! __________________ "Cannonball Coming!" Go Bucs!! Founder and League Caretaker of the Professional Baseball Circuit, www.probaseballcircuit.com An Un-Official Guide to Minor League Management in OOTP 21 Ratings Scale Conversion Cross-Reference Cheat Sheet

04-25-2018, 12:08 PM	#27
Déjà Bru Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: United States Posts: 10,456	There is some really good advice in this thread. Bookmarked for later compilation of notes to self. Thanks. __________________ - Bru

04-30-2018, 05:43 PM	#29
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	Okay so I have a question on this great post... "Front Office Spends More is of course, more... so yes - unless absolutely impossible, I do max out both player development allocation (36m) and scouting (24m). The smart money will surely point out that this leads to diminishing returns - something closer to ~20m/~15m still more likely puts you in the relative top spenders - plus likely gives you room for a superstar contract, but churn baby, churn... " Let's say your ENTIRE budget for the year is... $112m. On a pure rebuilding team. Clearly $60m on dev/scouting is not an option. I was considering going as high as $24m for development and $12m for scouting, but I realize even that is 30% of the whole budget. It leaves very little to actually spend on players. The idea behind the plan is to get the best young players and maximize the value from them while they are cheap, and then let most of them walk when they get older. A few might become popular "franchise players" and hopefully by then gate revenues will have increased to allow me to afford them. Is this completely nutty? Just curious what you vets think. TBH, in my first season (just completed) I did about $10m for scouting and $6m for development (had no idea what I was doing really) and ended the year with a pile of left over cash due to salary dumping anyway. Just wondering... where are the diminishing returns on spending on this stuff? Also, do fan favorite / franchise players at least partially pay for themselves by selling tickets, as long as they aren't complete stiffs? Thanks for the great info. Last edited by Qeltar; 04-30-2018 at 05:44 PM.

04-24-2018, 01:23 PM	#22
drhay53 Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 355	When looking at a coaches 'development influence' page, you can change which team it is for in the top right corner of the screen.

04-24-2018, 01:27 PM	#24
wallewalls All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 774	Wait so do we have confirmation that international scouting budget doesn’t effect the international amateurs? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

04-25-2018, 02:51 AM	#25
SayHey1 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 221	This is outstanding. Thank you for this. It is exactly what I was looking for.

04-25-2018, 10:32 AM	#26
garion333 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 133	Brilliant post. I find shortlists to be unwieldy to use so I'm surprised you live and die by them.

04-25-2018, 10:03 PM	#28
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	Question for experts: do player ratings go up or down based on their actual performance or just the random factors in the engine? I have a 1B reclamation project I got as a minors FA who is tearing the cover off the ball at single A (1.330 OPS with a nutty 17 HR in 130 or so AB) but his ratings are still mediocre at best. I'm not sure if I should move him up to challenge him more, or if lower ratings will make his progress slow. Part of the issue is that he's 27, which seems to be around when guys stop really improving. Thanks.

05-01-2018, 10:31 AM	#30
Franchise Bat Boy Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 11	Thanks for going into such detail about how you operate. I've been playing OOTP since OOTP 4 and it's always nice to get a different perspective.