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Old 05-23-2019, 06:26 PM   #1
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Verlander rating down?

I have browsed these forums for some time but this is my first post. I may have missed a thread on this but does anyone know why verlander is trending down atm when he is one of the best pitchers in baseball at the moment? 8-1 with a 2 era and hes down 2 points? Shouldnt he be perfect very soon or atleast trending up?
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Old 05-23-2019, 06:39 PM   #2
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Three things that strike me about Verlander's stats. His BABIP is .158 (compared to his projection of .290), his LOB% is 97% (compared to his projection of 76.9%) and his FIP is slightly higher than projected (3.65 vs 3.37)

I'm guessing the algorithms behind these ratings don't care about ERA or wins and it's been judging him to be lucky rather than dominant.

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Old 05-23-2019, 06:40 PM   #3
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Win-loss record and ERA just aren't relevant to the way the game models pitching. Everything is based on walks, strikeouts and home runs (like FIP). Verlander has been giving up significantly more HR this year than his projections estimated. If you check his FIP you'll see it's not as great as his ERA.

Also his best start of the season, from a couple days ago, hasn't been included yet.

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Old 05-23-2019, 06:41 PM   #4
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He's given up a ton of homeruns which hit his movement rating pretty hard. After this weeks game though I would expect him to move back up a point or two

looking at wins is lol
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Old 05-23-2019, 07:14 PM   #5
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I never said i was looking at wins dk i just posted it alongside his era to show what kind of monster season hes having at his age for reference to my original question. But thanks for the people that gave good advice and yea i think he will go up after that last start
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