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Old 12-23-2012, 10:17 AM   #141
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More Hitting Candidates

The 4 hitters who would get in on the Veterans Standard if the standard was unchanged and they had 20 years of time pass since their retirement and they had not been previously removed from the ballot are (in order or composite score):

Gorman Thomas CF (3.9, ret 2003), 1779 hits, 558 HRs, 1486 RBI, 3x HR leader, 2x RBI leader, 4x AS, 249/329/527, npa OPS+ 127....2 of 4 most similar (eligible) players in HOF.

Jim Rice LF (3.3, ret 1997) 2771 H, 504 HR, 1573 RBI, 1 HR title, 5x AS, 283/332/489, npa OPS+ 125....4 of 8 most similar (eligible) players in HOF, 1 of remaining 4 on list of 7.

Jack Lelivelt LF (3.0, ret 2005) 2887 H, 511 2B, 343 SB, 1 Batting title, 4x AS, 316/378/405, npa OPS+ 114......2 of 9 most similar players in the HOF, 1 of remaining 7 on the list of 7.

Jimmy Sheckard RF (2.3, retired 2003) 2115 H, 802 SB, 3x SB leader, 3x GG, 3x AS, 270/381/409, npa OPS+ 117....2 of 8 most similar (eligible) players in the HOF.

The 11 players in the two posts made their debuts between 1979 (Fairly) and 1989 (Thomas). These numbers were produced in the same era as the candidates on the RL HOF Ballot. One can look these simulated careers and compare them to those on the RL ballot and ask himself, "Who would I vote for in 2013?"

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Old 12-23-2012, 10:55 AM   #142
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Pitching Candidates

We know there will be one pitcher in the Class of 2013. This is a list of pitchers who have been screened and will get in on current standards. There are so many pitcher, I am not going to summarize any of them, but will make note of various leaders amongst those not in the HOF after the 2013 class.

For the purposes of induction I add 1 HOFs point for each 10 career saves in an attempt to make up for the fact that his metric is not designed for relief pitchers. Once a player is inducted, those points are removed and his actual HOFs number is used for computing Hall standards. The dates listed by each player is year of retirement. The number in parenthesis is the number of screenings the player has already received. First Ballot screenings are not counted. These are not sorted by composite score, but by earliest to last retirement date.


Johan Santana 1909
Cole Hamels(1) 1925
Zack Greinke 1931
Adonis Terry 1936
J Fisher 1940
Tommy Hanson 1951
Bill Quarles 1960
Jock Menefee 1969
Javier Vasquez 1975
Fred Hutchinson 1976
Bob Black 1979
Ed Doheny 1980
George Haddock 1986
Egyptian Healy 1986
Phil Knell 1988
Rob Nen 1993
Will Sawyer 1998
Craig Kimbrel 1999
Frank O'Connor 2003
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Old 12-23-2012, 10:58 AM   #143
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More Pitching Candidates

These players meet the current Veteran Standard for entry and would be entered based on that if they have 20 years of retirement time when they are screened.

Claude Passeau(1) 1898
Scott T Baker 1901
Jake Peavy(1) 1901
Carlos Zambrano(1) 1902
Tom Ford(1) 1903
Jerry Reuss 1904
Les Cain(1) 1905
Aaron Harang(1) 1905
Pascual Perez(1) 1906
Ken Raffensberger(1) 1908
Jim Handiboe(3) 1912
Sam Weaver 1914
Tom Vickery(1) 1914
Jack McDowell 1916
Jim Gardner(2) 1922
Virgil Trucks(1) 1922
Francisco Liriano(1) 1922
Jon Lester(1) 1924
Brandon Webb(2) 1925
Jumbo McGinnis(1) 1927
Zane Smith 1930
Pete Alexander 1933
Madison Bumgarner(1) 1933
Harry Brecheen(1) 1937
Tom Sullivan(1) 1941
Red Faber 1945
Ralph Comstock 1949
Justin Masterson 1950
Doug Drabek 1952
Ice Box Chamberlin 1952
Jon Matlack 1953
Slim Harriss(1) 1954
Curt Schilling 1956
Wes Ferrell 1958
Whitey Ford(1) 1958
Don Robinson 1959
Nixey Callahan(1) 1959
Arlie Pond 1963
John Burkett 1963
Phenomenal Smith 1964
Vern Law 1970
Doc White 1971
Frank Foreman 1971
Bob Tewksbury 1973
Walter Thornton 1974
Dolph Luque 1977
Nat Hudson 1979
Phil Niekro 1984
Harry Salisbury 1987
Christy Mathewson 1988
Bump Hadley 1988
Kid Nichols 1990
Roy Oswalt 1994
Waite Hoyt 1994
Dizzy Trout 1994
Bob Feller 1995
Noodles Hahn 1996
CC Sabathia 1997
Pretzels Getzien 1999
Rick Reuschel 2001

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Old 12-23-2012, 11:06 AM   #144
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Thoughts on Pitchers

I think the fact that I was using Very Low injuries really pumped up the number of pitchers I have in contention for the Hall. The career total bouses are quite learge in the HOFm/s categories, and with pitchers staying healthier longer, more reaped these points.
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Old 01-04-2013, 05:30 PM   #145
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RL HOF Ballot 2013

As I am waiting on the class of 2013 to be announced, I thought I would offer my own ballot incorporating the standards in use here, and my own personal biases.

If I had a vote, I would not vote for any steroid player. I know Bonds was a HOFer before he juiced, same for Clemens, but I would not vote for them, this year.

It is helpful to eliminate these players, because I am having trouble limiting myself to the 10 selections the writers are limited to.

"Why the heck are they not in already?"

Jeff Bagwell...saw him a couple times up close in 1991 and was struck by his focus and control at the plate. I had no idea that he would put together the career he did, but he is an absolute no brainer, in my book.

Larry Walker...this guy raked when he played home games in Olympic Stadium. Denver enhanced is output totals, but it did not create them. Walker was a guy that made it worthwhile to get to the park early to watch him warm up his arm in the OF. The only legitimate reason to not vote for him is because of the 10 name limit.

1st Balloters that Should be elected This Year:

Piazza, Biggio....anyone that doesn't think these guys are HOFers should have their voting privileges yanked.

1st Balloters that I think belong but won't get in, this year:

Schilling, Franco....I think Curt will have to wait, but he will get in. Julio Franco is a personal favorite of mine. In 2005 I saw him play at RFK as I sat above the President's box where George W Bush had been on opening night. I flashed back to 1989 and watching Julio Franco play second base for the Rangers with a then private citizen George W Bush (he had not run for any elected office, yet) sitting 2 rows in front of me. There was something James Earl Jones-ish in how Julio Franco was representing the constant of baseball while the world had changed so much in just 16 years.

I think Franco is a HOFer, but I don't think he will get in via the writers.

1st Balloters I would vote for just to give them a vote:

Shawn Green. Class guy and true to his personal beliefs. I like that. I don't think he will be a HOFer, but he deserves a few votes.

I have 3 spots left, and this is hard.

I am going with Mattingly and Murphy (the 80s game was so different than today's, and these guys were both in the conversation of the best in baseball, back then), and Alan Trammell.

I have a bias against Fred McGriff since he balked at leaving a horrible Tampa Bay team to join a play-off contending Cubs team. A HOFer doesn't merely want to pick up a check, he wants to win. I found this episode distasteful, and choose to put guys on my ballot that are what I believe to be "heart and soul" types. That is why McGriff is not on my list.

Lots of arguments can be made for lots of guys, and I do not imply in any way that my 10 are the best 10, but they are how I would fill my ballot, if I had one.

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Old 01-10-2013, 06:09 PM   #146
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RL 2013 Ballot...wow

I saw zero inductions as a possibility, but I didn't think it would actually happen. So, there will be one hitter* added to this HOF and then it will be done.

I have started the follow-up league as a confirmation run of the HOF entry standards used in this one, and will begin a seperate thread for that with the Inaugural Class.

That league started in 1973 and is using the historical settings for each year and will use the program's league evolution for seasons after 2012.

The Injury settings are High and I bumped up the fatigue settings slightly.

The only thing different, as far as the calculations go, is that I will adjust the the Ink and HOFm/s modifiers for hitters and pitchers based on those in the RL Hall, instead of using the modifiers listed on BBREF for "average" and "likely" HOFers.

The first HOF Class will be in 2008. I have completed through the 2001 season. I haven't been doing the final work on what I need to do here because I was having so much fun playing with the new league....what do you know...OOTP is freaking fun! Now that the 2013 results are known, I will finish this HOF, and then continue to 2008 inaugural Class for the follow up.

I will follow the same method for entry in the follow up league, so 2008 will be like 1936 for inductions, 2018 like 1946, etc. The first class will have 3 hitters and 2 pitchers that will be the retired players with the most hits, HRs, Wins, and strikeouts, and then to the leader boards for the remaining entry(ies).

I may have this thread completed sometime tomorrow, but I anticipate it will be complete no later than Sunday.

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 01-10-2013 at 06:17 PM. Reason: * I don't know why I had deacon White in my mind as a pitcher...must have been confusing him with Deacon Phillipe
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Old 01-16-2013, 08:29 PM   #147
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Class of 2013: Mize

Johnny Mize gets in as the final inductee on the First Ballot standard.

His 647 HRs puts him 20th on the All-Time list. His 1856 RBI ranks him 27th on that career list.

A steal as the 20th pick overall by the San Diego Padres in 1985, Mize played in the majors from 1986 through 2006. He retired in 2007.

For his career, he collected 2975 hits as he posted a career slash line of 303/390/562 that was good for a npa OPS+ of 158. This 158 number is also Mize's career OPS+ in RL.

He won the Barry Bonds Balko Award (MVP) twice, and appeared in 15 AS games. Amongst HOF hitters, only Tex Erwin, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, and Willie Stargell appeared in more AS games.

He collected 200 hits in a season 5 times. He hit 50 Hrs in a season 3 times. From 1992 through 1999, he drove in at least 100 runs each season. In only one of those years did he not also score 100 runs.

With the Indians in 1997 he hit 56 HRs, for his career high. Plying for the Dodgers in 1998, he again hit 56 HRs.

Both of his MVP Awards came with the Padres. In 1988 he hit .322 with 32 HRs and 112 RBI. In 1990 he tallied marks of .315/40/118 playing home games at the Murph. His npa OPS+ numbers for those years were 175 and 179, respectively.

Mize played in the post season 6 times, but he never appeared in a WS.

Of his 9 most similar players, 4 of the 5 that are eligible are in the HOF.

Mize won a GG at 1B and he won one batting title.

Black Ink: 30 (50)
Gray Ink: 221 (202)
HOFm: 305 (175)
HOFs: 65 (47)

------------------

Johnny Mize is often a forgotten great. He served 3 years in WWII that would have been peak seasons. Without these three seasons, he still managed to pile up 50 Black Ink points and 202 Gray Ink points. Truly amazing. Having him join this Hall as the final inductee is fitting and proper.

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Old 01-29-2013, 01:38 AM   #148
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Update

I have completed 35 seasons in my second run league in which I will apply this model for HOF inductions. I have been fired twice ( am currently jobless....won't be managing for a while).

Since I reached the point of inductions, it was finally the time where I HAD to go and do the work for the adjustments based on the RL HOF for this league, and the final analysis of the output.

I have all the RL HOFers entered (those whose entrances I used to determine the number of entrants in this league) into a spreadsheet and can make the true adjustments. Now, I am in the process of putting those adjusters into this HOF. I didn't plan on doing this when I started, so the process is not terribly efficient.

The new modifiers (old modifiers) for each category are:

Pitchers-
Black Ink 42 (40)
Gray Ink 210 (185)
HOF Monitor 164 (100)
HOF Status 49 (50)

Hitters-
Black Ink 26 (27)
Gray Ink 157 (144)
HOF Monitor 152 (100)
HOF Status 47 (50)

These new modifiers are the averages of the actual real life averages of the players that are inducted into the RL HOF. For the Babe Ruth and Bobby Wallace types who have both batting and pitching points in categories, I simply added them together and used that total to contribute to the average for pitchers or hitters, as applicable. So, Ruth's pitching points contributed to the hitting average and Wallace's batting points contributed to the pitching averages.

This is how I handled players in the OOTP world who had tallies for both pitching and hitting to determine their inductions.

I had commented previously that I found the HOFm numbers for the OOTP universe to be higher than expected. I later noted the phrasing on BBREF that indicated the 100 figure was not an average of the HOFers. As you can see from the new modifiers, there is a significant discrepancy between the old and new modifiers in this category. I am now confident that I will get a composite average close to 4 for the players inducted into my HOF, which is the composite average of the RL HOF using the new modifiers.

I was surprised by the discrepency in the Gray Ink modifier numbers. I thought the deviation from what I expected was caused by randomness. It wasn't.

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Old 01-29-2013, 03:30 AM   #149
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Final Hall Chart

I have applied the new modifiers and the final Hall totals are:

Black Ink 1.1
Gray Ink 1.1
HOFm 1.1
HOFs 1.0

Composite 4.3

1.0 is the average for each category in RL and 4.0 is the composite average.

These results are very good. Considering the number of RL players who lost time to military service and (to a lesser degree) work stoppages that did not occur in this universe, I think it is quite reasonable to expect those who entered this HOF to have slightly higher numbers in these metrics.

Another factor may have been the low injury setting. This will be a point of difference in the follow up league.

The chart below is the plotting of the composites using the new modifiers. The number of players that were above the "once in a decade" threshold of a 10 score went from 13 using the the old modifiers, to 10 using the new ones.

The position of the highest scoring players switched, as Shoeless Joe now has a slightly higher composite (14.4) than Ty Cobb (14.3). From Left to right, the plots above the 14 line are Cobb, Jackson, and Frank Robinson. Further to the right is Rogers Hornsby, who is now just below a 14.

The median score is a 4.
The modal score is 3.
Both of these numbers come from rounding each player composite to the nearest whole number.

ADD: No pitcher had a composite score that exceeded 10. IR:, no pitcher has a composite score that exceeds a 10. In both cases, the pitcher with the highest composite scores were inducted in the inaugural class (Charlie J Ferguson with a 9.9 and Walter Johnson with a 9.5). THAT result is supper cool!
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Old 01-29-2013, 04:53 AM   #150
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All Time Greatest Team

Using the composite scores, I have put together the greatest team from this universe. For all positions I used the method I think should be used by the software in designating the positions of HOFers. That method involves checking to see if the player played more games in the IF or OF. If the player played more games as an IFer, then he is assigned the IF position he played the most. If he played more games as an OFer, then he is assigned the position in the OF he played the most.

I know, you can shuttle players between positions, especially in the OF, but for this fun little exercise I locked each player into one position. I chose to call the 9th hitter slot DH/PH/sub because the composite scores does take fielding into account and that the player who has the highest composite score second to another at a position may not necessarily be the best pure hitter remaining, but he has value as a fielder, also.

The number accompanying each player is his composite score

C - Tex Erwin, 10.3
1b- Willie Stargell, 9.4
2b- Nap Lajoie, 9.3
3b- Eddie Mathews, 5.6
SS- Rogers Hornsby, 13.5
LF- Zack Wheat, 7.5
CF- Shoeless Joe Jackson, 14.4
RF- Frank Robinson, 14.1
DH/PH/sub- Ty Cobb, 14.3

Rotation
Charlie J Ferguson, 9.9
Lefty Grove, 8.1
James Burke, 8.1
Bobby Mathews, 6.7
Sandy Koufax, 6.6

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Old 01-30-2013, 03:00 AM   #151
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In Summary

This project has been extremely rewarding for me. I am thrilled with the results and it has opened up avenues of thought that I am looking forward to applying in OOTP 14.

I will be creating a new thread for the follow-up run through. I am very excited to see how the numbers play out starting in 1973. I have the inaugural class inducted and will post a summary of that in similar format to what I have done here.

Looking ahead to OOTP 14, I have an idea that I will apply there that uses the same basis for induction, but is not locked rigidly into the historic inductions (5 players in the first year, 3 players in the second year, etc) but retains a basis in history for inductions that can be applied to any size league of any kind with any settings using historical players from straight stats, historical players with recalc, or purely fictional player (which would include historical players coupled with the dev engine). This is not the only thing about which I am excited, but as far as implementing such a HOF selection process into the game, it is HUGELY exciting. Maybe for OOTP 15 or 16.

I have been amazed by the number of views that this thread has garnered. Though I did not start this thread with the intent of drawing an audience or responses, I do admit that when the number of views topped 1000 I smiled in amazement. That there are now 3000 + views tells me that there is considerable interest in what I am doing, and that is very satisfying.

I want to thank all of you who have taken time to follow along. Seeing the views continue to increase over these months helped motivate me to continue with the project on days when I was not 100% enthused about it.

Some of you contacted me through PM with specific questions in order to keep the thread from going astray. I thought that was very cool, and I appreciate that courtesy.

I also appreciated the questions/requests that were posed in the thread itself, and I hope I adequately addressed them in a timely manner.

I will be devoting my time now to the follow-up league and hope to get to the 2013 equivalent year of 2095 before the OOTP 14 release, so I have two complete sets of data to work from for future enhancements.

I will have a few more posts here about this league. To any of you who have been holding back any questions or comments, consider the thread now open for discussion. All of the players are inducted that will be inducted, so there is no longer any thread continuity to be broken.

Thank you, everyone. This has been a neat experience for me. The OOTP community is the best around.

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Old 02-01-2013, 11:24 AM   #152
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I've read through this entire thread I believe, and still have no idea what Black/Grey Ink is, what the other 2 HOF numbers are and how the 4 of these get calculated as well. Is there any way you can expound upon what these numbers are and how they are determined, for us newbies?
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Old 02-01-2013, 02:33 PM   #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XpertDBA View Post
I've read through this entire thread I believe, and still have no idea what Black/Grey Ink is, what the other 2 HOF numbers are and how the 4 of these get calculated as well. Is there any way you can expound upon what these numbers are and how they are determined, for us newbies?
The four numbers are explained here (scroll about half way to get to the Black Ink): Leaderboard Glossary - Baseball-Reference.com

HOFm is shorthand for the Hall of Fame Monitor. HOFs is shorthand for the Hall of Fame Career Standards Test. These are described directly below the Ink explanations. For my uses, I have tweaked a couple items. For instance, I do give a point on the HOFm for a no-hitter. I also now distribute post-season pitching HOFm points over the entire play-offs, in a proportional manner, when a pitcher's team reaches the WS in a given season. I originally did this for expedience sake, but then realized that this metric was developed before there were nultiple rounds of play-offs and few HOFers of the time had played in the play-off era, at all. I like this method and have implemented it for the follow-up league.

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Old 02-01-2013, 05:58 PM   #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla View Post

These 7 are presented in order of their composite scores, highest to lowest.

Edgar Martinez 3B (5.0, ret 1999), 3191 hits, 466 HRs, 1798 RBI, 1 Batting Title, 1 RBI Title, 8x AS, 287/371/473, npa OPS+ 129...of his 9 most similar players, 6 are HOFers and 3 are on this list of 7 that meet current HOF criteria.

Matty Alou LF (4.4, ret 2000), 2950 hits, 7x H leader, 1 batting title, 2x AS, 2x GG, 264 SB, 317/249/414, npa OPS+ 110....5 of 9 most similar in the HOF.

Bob Bailey 3B (3.9, ret 2004), 2908 hits, 424 HRs, 1691 RBI, 3 RBI titles, 7x AS, 275/357/456, npa OPS+ 124....5 of 9 most similar in HOF, 3 of remaining 4 on this list of 7.

Mike Carp 1B (3.6 ret 2003), 2711 hits, 479 HRs, 1652 RBI, 1 RBI title, 8x AS, 285/391/491, npa OPS+ 140....5 of 8 most similar (eligible) in HOF.

Jim Ray Hart 3B (3.4 ret 2004), 2848 H, 519 HR, 1714 RBI, ROY, 7x AS, 278/337/482, npa OPS+ 118.....4 of 8 most similar (eligible) in HOF and 1 of remaining 4 on list of 7.

Ted Easterly C (3.3, ret 2000), 2538 H, GG @ C, 4x AS, 310/353/427, npa OPS+ 116.....1 of 9 most similar in HOF.

Ron Fairly CF (2.7, ret 1999), 3331 H, 579 2B, 393 HR, 1671 RBI, GG, 5x AS, 281/374/437, npa OPS+ 124.....7 of 9 most similar in HOF, remaining 2 on list of 7.
I was going over this post from the previous page regarding those who players who might have been in the class of 2013. They all had the qualifications, based on the numbers that were used for that class, but only one player was inducted in RL, so only one got inducted here, and it was not one of them. It was a first balloter, Mize, instead.

Posting these candidates (and the ones that followed as having VS inductable numbers) was the first time I had taken the time to do such an exercise. I could eyeball what I had in the sheet, but never meticulously looked at all of them, since it was really of no value to spend time doing it, until I was waiting for the 2013 announcement and was in a holding pattern because of that.

I was looking over this list of 7 and I asked myself, who is really better of the seven? If you knew that these were the numbers each would put up for his career, and you had your pick, who is the best? Really, they are all excellent, and I came to the conclusion that it would really boil down to team need and team philosophy as to which I would prefer. These are all legitimate HOF careers. However, it was Mize that got in.

It was the design of the First Ballot Standard to have players newly eligible jump into the Hall ahead of those worthy and waiting for a slot if they were just THAT much better. Johnny Mize's career IS that much better than these other seven, so his quick entry is proper, and more importantly, reflective of the RL process.

I have no mechanism in place that gradiates player chances based on time eligible. Nothing specifically mimics the ascension of Burt Blyleven to 75%.

However, when a player enters on the First Ballot standard, he will raise the bar in both the Ink and the HOF metrics...that is how a player meets the First Ballot criteria...he has Ink and HOF composites above the Hall average and, therefore, raises the standards of both.

The overall composite score is not used in itself for determining an induction, but it is an indication of what a player's overall chances of entering the Hall are. Because Mize is inducted ahead of all seven players, and his induction raises the standard applied to future inductees (though with over 200 players in, one player's impact isn't very great) a dynamic is invoked that makes the immediate induction of a Fairly, Eaterly, or Hart, less likely. If the standard is raised to the point that any of these players no longer meet the new standard, then, as a consequence, it is more likely for a Martinez, Alou, Bailey, or Carp to get in when a slot, or slots open.

If the standards are the same as they were before 2013, and Ron Fairly gets in, we can say that he belongs in the HOF, and though we may think Martinez is more deserving, we can't say Fairly doesn't belong. We can create a story line about Fairly being exceptionally good to the fans, running the coolest golf events, visiting sick kids in the hospital (even when there are no news cameras around) and the voters decided it would be nice to put him in sooner rather than later.

If the standards are higher, and his numbers don't justify him being inducted, then perhaps Martinez or Alou get in, instead, and Fairly may have to wait for the VC to honor the 'good guy' at a later time. (None of this is to imply that Martinez or any other player on the list are bad guys, IRL....just using the names as a fictional example).

This dynamic I really like. As I mentioned before, there is no "build up of votes" that is part of the process I am using, but I think the dynamics that are put in play simulate this accumulation of support. And, after all, this is a baseball simulation that is in play.

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Old 02-01-2013, 07:16 PM   #155
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How to you calculate each of the 4 numbers for every player? Dump their career stats into a spreadsheet and let the spreadsheet calculate the final stat?
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:00 PM   #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XpertDBA View Post
How to you calculate each of the 4 numbers for every player? Dump their career stats into a spreadsheet and let the spreadsheet calculate the final stat?

The HOFs number is the only one you can do that way, with a simple career stat dump.

I have a bit of Rain Man in me. I scroll through the player page and tally the leader board placements in my head for the Ink numbers. That is quick work.

I do the others in my head, too, but use a calculator to do the fractional HOFm WS points. I then enter those results into a spreadsheet where the heavy lifting is done.

I have requested that Ink and HOFm/s be added to the stats page. There are some intricacies with some aspects of the HOF calcs that would be a bit of a pain for the developers to sort out, but the Ink numbers would be very simple coding (have to put in a qualifier to keep a pitcher from getting a Gray Ink point for being in the top 10 with 0 shut outs, the most common occurrence that a simple dump from the OOTP file would record errantly).

One advantage to doing it this way, for posting purposes, is that things will jump out at me as I am looking at the career results, and they become player notes for the posts, here. A common example is noticing the number of 200 hit seasons a player has. There is nothing in the stat bank that tracks this (if a player finishes 11th in the league in hits with 200, no note is made in the history). Also, it is obvious from tallying RBI/R points if a player has a string of seasons over 100. Again, these might not be recorded in the history page, if the player total is not a top 10 finish. The most common cause of this would be an interleague trade during the season.

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 02-01-2013 at 08:05 PM.
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