runners thrown out at very hi rate

[Déjà Bru]

We ought to keep this going because, with all due respect to Matt, the rate of outfield assists is too high and I am talking from a perspective of a couple of hundred games played out. I noticed this when I was in control of baserunning and when I let the AI handle it for me. Now, I have taken back control only to cut down on the amount of outfield assists, basically holding runners except if they are very fast and the ball is very deep.

[NoOne]

when i simmed about 50 years with ~.342-ish... league numbers were fine. i'm sure .300 can't be too high, either.

if there are only X number of of assists per year, then it cannot be all of them thrown out each opportunity... and it's clear people selectively forgetting that that baserunning option only displays on close decisions... after all the factors are weighed, it's a close call.... even if deep and a weak arm... maybe your guy stumbled around 2nd that time.

about it being ".300" and not a 1... stop thinking of "1.000" as normal or an ideal to reach.. ideal depends on too many factors to have a one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to league total modifiers. eras have different totals and resulting modifiers baed on those totals and the players in the league (if auto-calced, or baed on some # of years simmed, if like me).

[Déjà Bru]

I wonder whether, in this thread, any distinction has been made between the number of outfield assists if one controls baserunning, dealing with those decision dialogs, versus if one just allows the AI to control baserunning.

EDIT: Because I have a hunch that, if there is an issue here, it is encountered by interacting with those decision dialogs. For that reason, I have gone back to letting my AI control baserunning and taking my chances. Already I had a guy score when, given the situation as shown on the 3D display, he would have been out for sure if the game asked me to make the decision.

EDIT 2: Yeah, it just happened again: Runner scoring from second on a base hit to right, to a depth that would have been described as "shallow" or "medium depth" in the decision dialog. It's certain death if you send the runner on any ball that is not hit deep no matter the runner's speed or the fielder's arm strength. I have seen "pitiful" arms throw fast runners out when asked. This runner scored in the game, however, because the AI was handling the situation.

EDIT 3: And again. Take a look at the this situation. Mark Hayes is on second, a 45 speed baserunner. He scores from second on a single (only one out, and I did not send the runners), and look at the depth of the left fielder Paul Dugas, who has a 70 arm. There is NO WAY this would happen if I opted to try to score Hayes using a decision dialog.

You guys believe what you want to believe. I know what I believe now.

[italyprof]

It is way too common , almost automatic that runners are thrown out on outfielder assists and lead runners thrown out on burns is also much too common.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by italyprof

It is way too common , almost automatic that runners are thrown out on outfielder assists and lead runners thrown out on burns is also much too common.

Well, it's not going to get changed until the principals play with those decision dialogs enabled and they notice what we have seen. If they do what NoOne talked about and sim out decades, then they are going to get reasonable statistical results. It's not the statistics engine that the game uses when it sims; it's the applet, for want of a better term, that was designed to run the decision dialogs. That is where the problem lies, in my opinion.

[Tazilon]

My experience when the game gives you a choice has been it doesn't matter how fast your runner is or how poor the fielder's arm is; the result is always the same: OUT. I can not recall a single time my runner was safe at home when asked if I wanted to send him.

Based on the fact I have runners frequently beat out throws in situations where I don't get asked, I would surmise the problem is not in the actual mechanics of running/throwing but rests in the point at which the game decides to give managers the choice to go for it or not. It needs to shift to a point where consideration of runner speed vs arm strength rewards smart choices and penalizes bad choices. At the moment every choice to go for it is penalized with an out.

As a manager my choice should based evaluation of pertinent physical facts (speed vs arm strength) realizing that even what seems like a good choice will sometimes result in an out and taking a big gamble will sometimes be rewarded. It should not be based on evaluation of the AI knowing no matter what the player skill match-up, I will always be thrown out.

[Padreman]

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=277620

So which is it? Either they all safe or all out?

[Andy]

Originally Posted by Padreman

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=277620

So which is it? Either they all safe or all out?

Not sure what that has to do with this thread?

[Padreman]

Originally Posted by Andy

Not sure what that has to do with this thread?

This thread is talking about baserunners behind gunned down in high rate the other nont enought or not at all. So which is it? Why would the same game have different results? Simple it's people's modifiers are off

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Padreman

This thread is talking about baserunners behind gunned down in high rate the other nont enought or not at all. So which is it? Why would the same game have different results? Simple it's people's modifiers are off

I have not touched my modifiers. I never do.

What I am seeing is that, if I use the decision dialogs, the rate of outfield assists is too high. If I let the AI handle my baserunning, or if I sim games, the rate of outfield assists seems to be reasonable.

The insertion of a manual decision point in the game seems to be diverting the game away from the priority of producing reasonable statistical outcomes in these situations.

[Padreman]

Well then that is weird

[Anyone]

I've played for years, several versions of OOTP, always having the AI control baserunning.

I never believed that I could make the decisions with the incomplete information I seemed to have as well as the algorithms could.

Occasionally the algorithms screw it up, in that they'll occasionally send runners carrying runs that mean nothing in the 9th inning (e.g. the guy whose scoring would put the team down 3 instead of 4) and get thrown out. A player in that spot should never go for an extra base if there's even an 0.01% chance of being thrown out, because if the tying run were to score he'd score well ahead of him.

That problem seems to have improved over the years. I have yet to see that specific thing happen in OOTP18, though I've been playing much less due to unrelated bugs. The latest (3D stuck on instant PbP) is promised to be fixed in the next patch, and I hope upon hope that it is.

But anyway, the meaningless-basrunner-risk problem, even assuming I'd find the same amount of meaningless-baserunner risks as in 17-- which isn't really common at all-- is much less of one than what people describe with 18's higher throwing out rate of dialog-sent runners. I suggest, whatever is causing it, that for now people just set baserunning decisions as delegated to the AI, as I've done for years. You can always think of it as realism, given that it would be delegated in real life to base coaches anyway.

[Andy]

Originally Posted by Padreman

This thread is talking about baserunners behind gunned down in high rate the other nont enought or not at all. So which is it? Why would the same game have different results? Simple it's people's modifiers are off

When I go to the post you linked it says something about doubleheaders and that's it.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Anyone

I suggest, whatever is causing it, that for now people just set baserunning decisions as delegated to the AI, as I've done for years. You can always think of it as realism, given that it would be delegated in real life to base coaches anyway.

That's how I look at it. Even if I am the manager, making lineup, substitution, and strategy decisions, I am not making the call to send baserunners or not. That it is the base coach's job.

So I am back to being comfortable with allowing the AI to sort this out (also, less annoying popups). Still, even though I am "leaving" this issue now, it should be looked at by the developers because it is a feature that is offered as part of the game and some people are using it and noticing "runners thrown out at very hi rate."

Again, though, it must be witnessed by playing the game out and using the decision dialog consistently over time. Only then does the issue become apparent. If developers are running sims and measuring outfield assists, they are not going to find it that way. It's in the dialog decision "applet," so to speak.

[Padreman]

Originally Posted by Andy

When I go to the post you linked it says something about doubleheaders and that's it.

Sorry wrong one was about baserunning I wanted to post

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

I have not touched my modifiers. I never do.

What I am seeing is that, if I use the decision dialogs, the rate of outfield assists is too high. If I let the AI handle my baserunning, or if I sim games, the rate of outfield assists seems to be reasonable.

The insertion of a manual decision point in the game seems to be diverting the game away from the priority of producing reasonable statistical outcomes in these situations.

Several versions ago there was a big push to get that pop up decision box because people wanted the right to make the decision.

[Padreman]

Originally Posted by RchW

Several versions ago there was a big push to get that pop up decision box because people wanted the right to make the decision.

Yes I even made the argument this would be a good time to add base coaches having a third base coach with judgment, different levels of aggressiveness and he can either "wave you" or stop you but you as the "base runner" I have to make the decision to stop or keep going

[USF]

I'm not seeing this issue at all. I'm playing with default settings for OF assist ie., 1.000 I'm in my third year of my fictional world league so far so good.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by USF

I'm not seeing this issue at all. I'm playing with default settings for OF assist ie., 1.000 I'm in my third year of my fictional world league so far so good.

Please read above carefully, then see if your comment is germane.

The discussion, in my opinion, is not about simulated results. It's about in-game play, when one is in control of baserunning. It's about when the game asks you whether to send the runner(s) and it's in that applet where the problem lies.

Too many times, in all sorts of situations, the runner is out unless the ball has been hit very deep. Is this what you were commenting upon?

[USF]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Please read above carefully, then see if your comment is germane.

The discussion, in my opinion, is not about simulated results. It's about in-game play, when one is in control of baserunning. It's about when the game asks you whether to send the runner(s) and it's in that applet where the problem lies.

Too many times, in all sorts of situations, the runner is out unless the ball has been hit very deep. Is this what you were commenting upon?

OK I don't control base-running.