runners thrown out at very hi rate

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by USF

OK I don't control base-running.

Yes, thanks, I thought so. This thread will float around for a while longer perhaps and maybe the issue that really is the crux of the matter will get noticed by someone in authority.

It's not the simulation. It's the baserunning management dialog. That's my unscientific but eyewitness opinion. Guys have agreed with it in this thread and nobody has argued against it.

But it's a matter of the developers either noticing this thread, some trusted turnkey bringing it to their attention, or the developers finding the issue themselves. Beta testers, the next time you are called upon, would you keep this in mind?

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Yes, thanks, I thought so. This thread will float around for a while longer perhaps and maybe the issue that really is the crux of the matter will get noticed by someone in authority.

It's not the simulation. It's the baserunning management dialog. That's my unscientific but eyewitness opinion. Guys have agreed with it in this thread and nobody has argued against it.

But it's a matter of the developers either noticing this thread, some trusted turnkey bringing it to their attention, or the developers finding the issue themselves. Beta testers, the next time you are called upon, would you keep this in mind?

The flaw is that I need hard data, since nothing in my testing has shown this to still be an issue.

-Whether you're asked or not, we basically use the same logic for sending runners. So there's nothing really "special" about when you're asked to send runners that would have the rates worse when you're asked vs when things are simmed.

-All the tests I've run have not shown any issues. The last game I played out, I was asked I think 3 times to send a runner and he was safe all 3 times. Every test I've run have shown the rates to be about what is expected (generally speaking, somewhere in the 50-75% range, depending on the conditions). And this is through multiple tests with the OFA modifier anywhere from 0.3 - 1.0 or so.

I'll admit it's a complicated problem. While the logic is almost the same, there are certainly some tweaks and changes done when you're playing out games, so it's possible there could be something there. But unless if someone plays out enough games to get 15-20 or more samples, records every time you send a runner, and shows results that are significantly under 50% safe, it still feels more likely that it's confirmation bias where people remember all the times they were out more than they remember when they were safe. I just haven't seen anything in my testing that shows the issue, and if I don't see the issue myself, it's basically impossible to "fix" it.

[Déjà Bru]

Thanks, Matt. Maybe as I suggested, the next time you guys do beta testing, make it something to be looked at carefully. Not simming and looking at stats, but controlling baserunning during game play.

Meanwhile, I appreciate your response and I accept what you say.

[MizzouRah]

Seems perfect to me... and I had this issue before the last few patch(s) even though I don't think they tweaked it. I play most of my games and have only seen 1 player thrown out in about 15 games.

[Peanuts]

Deju Bru has perfectly described the situation I am seeing in my fictional league. Same players who have scored from 2nd and 3rd in previous years, "out" at the plate at an alarming rate. And my outfielders are gunning down runners like men in a little league park. Matt, I appreciate what you are saying and believe you - but I'm just confirming that Deju Bru's observations are definitely what I am seeing - and I've played every version since 14.

As Mr. Bru states - you only see this when you play out the game and answer the dialog box question.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Peanuts

Deju Bru has perfectly described the situation I am seeing in my fictional league. Same players who have scored from 2nd and 3rd in previous years, "out" at the plate at an alarming rate. And my outfielders are gunning down runners like men in a little league park. Matt, I appreciate what you are saying and believe you - but I'm just confirming that Deju Bru's observations are definitely what I am seeing - and I've played every version since 14.

As Mr. Bru states - you only see this when you play out the game and answer the dialog box question.

Thanks. That's what I was trying to get across. Matt has answered and it's on his radar now. Or in the back of his mind, to use a different metaphor. That's good enough for me.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

The flaw is that I need hard data, since nothing in my testing has shown this to still be an issue.

-Whether you're asked or not, we basically use the same logic for sending runners. So there's nothing really "special" about when you're asked to send runners that would have the rates worse when you're asked vs when things are simmed.

-All the tests I've run have not shown any issues. The last game I played out, I was asked I think 3 times to send a runner and he was safe all 3 times. Every test I've run have shown the rates to be about what is expected (generally speaking, somewhere in the 50-75% range, depending on the conditions). And this is through multiple tests with the OFA modifier anywhere from 0.3 - 1.0 or so.

I'll admit it's a complicated problem. While the logic is almost the same, there are certainly some tweaks and changes done when you're playing out games, so it's possible there could be something there. But unless if someone plays out enough games to get 15-20 or more samples, records every time you send a runner, and shows results that are significantly under 50% safe, it still feels more likely that it's confirmation bias where people remember all the times they were out more than they remember when they were safe. I just haven't seen anything in my testing that shows the issue, and if I don't see the issue myself, it's basically impossible to "fix" it.

thanks for the response and clarification Matt.

Here's a question though, can we get OF Assist in the game logs? We get CS, why not OF Assist?

[endgame]

I dialed down outfield assists by 10% in settings. Only a month in, but projects about 20% high in my fictional league. FWIW

I should add I do not control baserunning decisions.